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Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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  • #1472
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    I dont know why people find Kermit so annoying. I like the way he puts on sunglasses. And someone has to fulfil the role of Prophet of Doom. Someone else has to be the nervous ninny, someone has to be the stats hero, someone has to be the bully, someone has to be the sensible one.
    Even without context to read figures on other countries or that things are "exploding" somewhere is alright. Google the context if you need. It is a reminder not to be a complete nincompoop about covid. This is a fcuk up of a rotten virus that is not going away for a while and that has been royally messing life up, screwing with our heads and having quite a rampage around the planet for a few months. Damn thing, I totally hate it.


  • #1473
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    I actually don't mind the posts. I find most posts here informative which is why I read the thread.

    I only have an issue (slight though it may be) when a poster goes out of their way to only post the most negative numbers they can find because it suits their own narrative.

    Not a 'stats hero' by any definition when they don't even understand what context means!

    Anyway...


  • #1474
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    One of the most annoying things about this whole thing is seeing Americans try to argue that being asked to wear a mask is a serious breach of their constitutional rights.

    "they're eroding our freedoms goddammit"

    You'd swear they were being put into chains. It's a flimsy bit of ****ing face fabric, grow up.


  • #1475
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    petes wrote: »
    I actually don't mind the posts. I find most posts here informative which is why I read the thread.

    I only have an issue (slight though it may be) when a poster goes out of their way to only post the most negative numbers they can find because it suits their own narrative.

    Not a 'stats hero' by any definition when they don't even understand what context means!

    Anyway...

    He is not the stats hero. He is the Prophet of Doom. Probably wears a black cape. To be honest one has never had to go too far out of the way to find negative numbers in this rotten scenario. They are a real part of this story too. If you were doing the screenplay for 2020 they would have to be included all the time. Before it used to be Bergamo, for a while it was horrifyingly us, and now Texas, Brazil, India, Israel. It's a basturd of a damn hateful thing.


  • #1476
    Neamhshuntasach
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,183 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    TOMs WIFE wrote: »

    it's not clear to me how letting the same people stay 3 hours rather than 1.75 hours or whatever, has an impact on the virus spreading. Is there a study that said if you are in 2m contact with others for 2 hours you'll be ok from covid but if you stray longer than that you're doomed?

    So what? Did they become more contagious following the 1.75 hours as the evening went on?

    I'd look at it as minimizing risk of spread rather than it not spreading up to a certain time limit.

    Let's say someone who may have Covid and is asymptomatic sits in a pub for 1.75 hours. He can only potentially spread it to x number of people within that time frame in the pub. Then let's say the same person sits in the pub for 5 hours. He has now potentially spread it y number of people. And y is always going to be bigger than x in a situation like this.

    I'm just talking about possible logic here. Pubs are always going to be risky but they have to be allowed open and try something for the sake of a lot of people's jobs and knowing what risk of case increases may come from it.

    The way I view it at the moment, no pub is open until July 20th. Only restaurants are open now. And some pubs had the ability to open as a restaurant. The food aspect will be gone from pubs on July 20th. And I don't think the time limit is workable. Even if it does make sense somewhat. But if pubs are going to be a big source of cases. Time limits don't matter anyways as the risk exists as soon as you let people in the door.


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  • #1477
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Sorry to reply to your comments so late .
    But ...
    I find it surprising you single out masks as being the saviour against the virus but are happy to dispense with social distancing and handwashing as basic public health measures!
    Masks are useless without handwashing, as the moment you touch the outside of the mask if it has the virus on it you have the potential to become infected...unless you wash your hands .
    And social distancing even at 1 m is safer than wearing a mask . Most masks don't filter out anything once they get wet .
    Japanese social distance as part of their culture , talk quietly and don't speak on the trains or to strangers unless spoken to , and is thought to be one of the main reasons they have kept cases down.
    Edit. I am not anti mask though , generally , they are definitely necessary on public transport and some indoor spaces.

    The disease hasn't been shown to be transmissable through skin.
    The disease that was cultured from surfaces in a CDC test *did not reproduce* (and those were 'laboratory tests' not the RL)
    The only way you could get the disease through contact, is if you contacted the disease and shoved your fingers up your nose and held them there awhile.

    Dispense with social distancing, dispense with the handwashing, mandate masks and the disease will plummet. Japanese live in crowded circumstances everywhere at huge levels higher than the worse you'll see on an Irish beach. Ever been on their subway?


    I keep coming back to the same data: countries that mask, do better by orders of magnitude that countries that don't. I'd gladly not drop the social distancing thing if it meant more mask adoption, likewise the handwashing. Washing your hands is VERY good for lots of other illnesses, especially the ones children spread like Norovirus. But not for flu, and not for Covid.

    As for the 'wet mask' issue, it rains in Japan, too.


  • #1478
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    I am not saying they don't stop some particles but ordinary cloth or other masks will not prevent you getting the virus . They will help you not to pass it on if you cough or sneeze and MAY help if someone coughs or sneezes back at you but they won't stop everything . They are not high grade filter masks , and even those while better , don't catch everything .
    Repeat... If you touch the mask AND DON'T WASH YOUR HANDS you run the risk of infecting yourself, and this is my point .
    Not that masks are useless , but without handwashing you are increasing your risk .
    This op stated that SD and handwashing could be deemed unnecessary in favour of mask wearing.
    Yep, and I still stand by that statement. Masks reduce your likelihood of catching the disease by about a third (and transmitting it to others by like 2/3.)

    Edit . I have stated 3 times now what I mean , so if you don't understand about the necessity of handwashing/ sanitising with maskwearing, I suggest you go to the HSE website to read up on the correct way to put on and take off a mask .

    Agree on the masks.


  • #1479
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1997/act/26/enacted/en/print.html

    I think this may have something;



    And;



    Now it's not an area of expertise and the Act may have been updated but it seems to be in the general area of an offence for infecting someone with covid! It's interesting that the law can only require a likelihood of infecting someone from the act (not just actually intending to infect them) and also covers the threat to infect them which caused the person to believe they would be infected.

    You are wrong you idiot. This only covers blood or a fluid resembling blood!

    Perhaps a loose interpretation of general assault causing harm law is what they would go for. In the UK, a lady was jailed this week for coughing on police and telling them she has covid.


  • #1480
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,260 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    D.Q wrote: »
    One of the most annoying things about this whole thing is seeing Americans try to argue that being asked to wear a mask is a serious breach of their constitutional rights.

    "they're eroding our freedoms goddammit"

    You'd swear they were being put into chains. It's a flimsy bit of ****ing face fabric, grow up.

    Saw someone say it's that these largely white people have never experienced oppression in their lives and so think being asked to wear a mask is somehow oppression. Remember seeing protests using songs from civil rights era when black people fought for basic civil rights. Wrong on so many levels.


  • #1481
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,260 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Looks like green list won't be published until 20th July now. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-travel-restrictions-to-stay-and-green-list-put-on-hold-amid-fears-of-second-wave-1.4295887?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true


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  • #1482
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,462 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Looks like green list won't be published until 20th July now. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-travel-restrictions-to-stay-and-green-list-put-on-hold-amid-fears-of-second-wave-1.4295887?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

    It'll be published next week alright but won't come into place until then by the looks of it.

    At this stage I honestly don't think it makes any difference. People are going to make up their own minds and this is kicking the can down the road. Nobody wants to actually make a decision


  • #1483
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Saw someone say it's that these largely white people have never experienced oppression in their lives and so think being asked to wear a mask is somehow oppression. Remember seeing protests using songs from civil rights era when black people fought for basic civil rights. Wrong on so many levels.
    You can see how battle lines have been drawn on masks with a combative President and others in positions of power not even delivering proper public heath messages while looking for ways to reopen almost from the start of the crisis.


  • #1484
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,260 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    It'll be published next week alright but won't come into place until then by the looks of it.

    At this stage I honestly don't think it makes any difference. People are going to make up their own minds and this is kicking the can down the road. Nobody wants to actually make a decision

    Looks like it won't be published until 20th July now. I guess they're trying to delay it as much as possible. Guess with that date people would only be booking a holiday in August at the earliest. Think it does risk people travelling anyway but that could always happen. Think communication could have been better though.


  • #1485
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    D.Q wrote: »
    One of the most annoying things about this whole thing is seeing Americans try to argue that being asked to wear a mask is a serious breach of their constitutional rights.

    "they're eroding our freedoms goddammit"

    You'd swear they were being put into chains. It's a flimsy bit of ****ing face fabric, grow up.

    I remember in the early days of this pandemic seeing ads on TV for the St Patricks day parades around Ireland. I couldn't believe there were ads on TV and they weren't cancelled at that point. That was around about the 6th or the 7th of March. At that time the WHO recommended for people not to gather in crowds of people. I knew the St Patricks day parades were going to be a mess if they went ahead. I felt hopeless and powerless but I went onto Facebook and went onto the Facebook page of some local representatives and also the FGs Facebook page and I wrote some words and asked them why they weren't helping us to slow this disease, why are the parades going ahead, they should be cancelled for health and safety, etc.

    Someone responded to the post on the fg page and it read like it came from someone in America who was shocked I didn't want any parades to go ahead - with a response like: 'but why would you want to get rid of your national holiday. The parade is going ahead in Chicago'. It was something like that.

    I knew then that America was going to be a lost cause.


  • #1486
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,462 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Looks like it won't be published until 20th July now. I guess they're trying to delay it as much as possible. Guess with that date people would only be booking a holiday in August at the earliest. Think it does risk people travelling anyway but that could always happen. Think communication could have been better though.

    The communication has been woeful alright, keeps being passed between departments, nobody wants to actually make the decision.

    Travel will happen regardless, up to each person to make up their mind. This mornings ploy seems to be we're delaying it to give the schools the best chance of going back end of August, despite them being open first in multiple countries.


  • #1487
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    The communication has been woeful alright, keeps being passed between departments, nobody wants to actually make the decision.

    Travel will happen regardless, up to each person to make up their mind. This mornings ploy seems to be we're delaying it to give the schools the best chance of going back end of August, despite them being open first in multiple countries.

    The cynic in me is inclined to think the government is pushing out the decision anticipating people will give up on the idea of travelling against advice and do a staycation instead thus boosting the tourism sector here. Many will do just that, those that have a higher tolerance for risk will go ahead with their plans.
    I fully intend to seeing my friends in Naples in August.


  • #1488
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Countries that did the best were largely those that had experience of SARS before and this time had ensured they had policies in place for

    We were talking about Europe. But Sars was an extremely rare disease more or less confined to China and Hong Kong.

    Countries like Germany, France, Uk, Canada had more "experience" of it then Korea.

    But since you brought it up
    Eight of nine retrospective observational studies found that mask and/or respirator use was independently associated with a reduced risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).


  • #1489
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The cynic in me is inclined to think the government is pushing out the decision anticipating people will give up on the idea of travelling against advice and do a staycation instead thus boosting the tourism sector here. Many will do just that, those that have a higher tolerance for risk will go ahead with their plans.
    I fully intend to seeing my friends in Naples in August.

    It's Naples not Nam FFS.

    Anyway the advice is sound and based on reality, the more people that travel the more incidents of the virus will be brought back.

    We have all ready seen the movie, we know how it ends and it's happening again.
    France had reported 6,000 new cases over the past 14 days, while Spain and Portugal had each reported 5,000 new cases. This compares with 165 new cases in Ireland during that time.

    Foreign travel now accounts for 17 per cent of new cases, an increase from about 2 per cent of cases in recent weeks


  • #1490
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    The irish government kicking the can down the road? Never


  • #1491
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Boggles wrote: »
    It's Naples not Nam FFS.

    Anyway the advice is sound and based on reality, the more people that travel the more incidents of the virus will be brought back.

    We have all ready seen the movie, we know how it ends and it's happening again.

    The advice is bs, citizens are advised not to travel yet inward travel hey no problems.
    No mandatory quarantine. By all means you have a staycation enjoy.
    Practicing the advised hand hygiene and SD my trip will be every bit as safe if not safer than mixing with American and English tourists in Kerry


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  • #1492
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,462 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Boggles wrote: »
    It's Naples not Nam FFS.

    Anyway the advice is sound and based on reality, the more people that travel the more incidents of the virus will be brought back.

    We have all ready seen the movie, we know how it ends and it's happening again.

    With respect, in regards Spain they are counting both PRC tests and anti body tests when reporting daily figures now.


  • #1493
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,260 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The advice is bs, citizens are advised not to travel yet inward travel hey no problems.
    No mandatory quarantine. By all means you have a staycation enjoy.
    Practicing the advised hand hygiene and SD my trip will be every bit as safe if not safer than mixing with American and English tourists in Kerry

    Think Varadkar's response lately to mandatory quarantine is that state wouldn't have enough hotels to put everyone up. If you had mandatory quarantine where Gardai check up on where people are staying if they weren't put up in hotels it would need huge resources. I think it is needed for red countries though so not sure how that will work. Not enough to rely on people to self-isolate.


  • #1494
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Practicing the advised hand hygiene and SD my trip will be every bit as safe if not safer than mixing with American and English tourists in Kerry

    Just go and stop talking about it daily.

    You can tell us all about it when you back. :rolleyes:

    But on a macro level and reality, travel into the country will see infection rates rise.

    That is not "BS" it's a fact.

    The sad reality is their is absolutely no defense against it.

    Apart from a pinky promise form.


  • #1495
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,260 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Is there any update on the contact tracing app actually? I guess at this stage ideally it would be ready for phase 4 on 20th July.


  • #1496
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,207 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    No, it certainly hasn't. Not according to the CDC which has warned about the seasonal implications of spread and is preparing on the basis of a late Autumn surge.

    What's going on in the southern hemisphere needs to get much greater attention.

    Australia is closed off and very sparsely populated yet they are still seeing outbreaks.

    Elsewhere is in really bad shape at the moment. South America and South Africa are riddled with this since the end of their Autumn.

    You are right, it needs greater attention. We should probably demand live video feeds. A good portion of the recent outbreak in Victoria was due to some travellers holed up in quarantine, shagging the guards.

    The CDC should know better, but they haven't been on the ball or technically very competent during this. Their own advice is that the virus is principally transmitted via vapour droplets expelled on peoples breath or sneezes and coughs. Almost all of this happens indoors, where seasons make little difference generally due to artificial temperature regulation.

    The virus needs to be in moisture to survive. If it dries out it denatures. This is the aspect where seasonal variation might have played a part, if it wasn't for the earlier belief in surface transmission being the main vector being wrong - all that hand washing mostly for nothing. Virus in moisture droplets that deposit on cold, condensation prone surfaces, or ones chill enough, evaporation is slow or doesn't occur, are viable for longer, hence winter giving a helping hand, but since that isn't how it mostly spreads, the seasonal difference expected hasn't emerged because it was predicated on the erroneous assumption of surface spread.


  • #1497
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    With respect, in regards Spain they are counting both PRC tests and anti body tests when reporting daily figures now.

    What percentage in comparison with actual new infection?


  • #1498
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Think Varadkar's response lately to mandatory quarantine is that state wouldn't have enough hotels to put everyone up. If you had mandatory quarantine where Gardai check up on where people are staying if they weren't put up in hotels it would need huge resources. I think it is needed for red countries though so not sure how that will work. Not enough to rely on people to self-isolate.

    Surely this is nothing more but a pack of rubbish. If there were no controls and people were allowed to come in with no controls, well them maybe they might be right about not having enough accommodation for quarantine but if the state implemented quarantine for incoming travellers, I would like to think there would be less people coming in because who would bother with travelling if they have to quarantine for 2 weeks.


  • #1499
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,462 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Is there any update on the contact tracing app actually? I guess at this stage ideally it would be ready for phase 4 on 20th July.

    Awaiting government sign off appearently


  • #1500
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,462 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Boggles wrote: »
    What percentage in comparison with actual new infection?

    I'll try and dig up the breakdown later when I'm on the laptop. But the current reported figures are the sum of both tests.


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  • #1501
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Boggles wrote: »
    Just go and stop talking about it daily.

    You can tell us all about it when you back. :rolleyes:

    But on a macro level and reality, travel into the country will see infection rates rise.

    That is not "BS" it's a fact.

    The sad reality is their is absolutely no defense against it.

    Apart from a pinky promise form.

    With the (edit) recently confirmed mutation from February of the virus it’s more likely then ever now that it’s going to spread faster and more comprehensively in countries with little to no measures in place. The question is really whether it’s going to pack less of a punch in some capacity, hopefully data will show that as more information becomes available on the newer strain.


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