Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Westernyelp

Drumpot wrote:

With the recent mutation of the virus it’s more likely then ever now that it’s going to spread faster and more comprehensively in countries with little to no measures in place. The question is really whether it’s going to pack less of a punch in some capacity, hopefully data will show that as more information becomes available on the newer strain.

What recent mutation? Any source for this?

Plumbthedepths

Boggles wrote: »

Just go and stop talking about it daily.

You can tell us all about it when you back. :rolleyes:

But on a macro level and reality, travel into the country will see infection rates rise.

That is not "BS" it's a fact.

The sad reality is their is absolutely no defense against it.

Apart from a pinky promise form.

I responded to another poster about the subject of travel, you choose to address a comment on the subject to me. Your childish retort above does you no favours tbh.

Drumpot

Westernyelp wrote: »

What recent mutation? Any source for this?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN244284

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

Fauci has also been talking about it.

igCorcaigh

Westernyelp wrote: »

What recent mutation? Any source for this?

It's a possibility rather than confirmed. Of course there are many variants of the virus. Fauci suggested that there may be a strain that spreads easier.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1279367608899338240?s=19

Drumpot

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It's a possibility rather than confirmed. Of course there are many variants of the virus. Fauci suggested that there may be a strain that spreads easier.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1279367608899338240?s=19

According to Reuters it’s confirmed. Virus’s mutate , this isn’t a surprise, so far it looks like it’s just most likely to transmit , not necessarily more potent.

Ineedaname

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN244284

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

Fauci has also been talking about it.

That's not a recent mutation though. That's the same strain that was spreading throughout Europe since at least February.

Drumpot

Ineedaname wrote: »

That's not a recent mutation though. That's the same strain that was spreading throughout Europe since at least February.

That’s true, my bad, I should of said “more recently confirmed mutation”.

henke

Is there any truth in the theory that while a mutation could make it more contagious that it also may become less potent? Which might not actually be bad news.

Drumpot

henke wrote: »

Is there any truth in the theory that while a mutation could make it more contagious that it also may become less potent? Which might not actually be bad news.

My layman understanding is that A mutation can go either way but a virus generally wants to spread and killing it’s host doesn’t help that. As such a mutation (while the word is scary) is quite often not making the virus more potent and quite often dilutes how bad the virus is but makes it easier to spread. I can be corrected by somebody more informed on virology but that’s what I understand.

Plumbthedepths

henke wrote: »

Is there any truth in the theory that while a mutation could make it more contagious that it also may become less potent? Which might not actually be bad news.

There certainly seems to be merit to the theory.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200703/Mutated-European-strain-of-coronavirus-more-contagious-but-less-potent.aspx

is_that_so

Found this detailed but accessible piece on the different R values and how they've been used by a variety of people.

Mathematicians and public-health experts watched through their fingers in May as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiled a series of charts to explain how the government would guide Britain out of coronavirus lockdown. Perhaps most prominent was a colourful dial with a needle hovering near a single digit: 1

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w

gizmo23

Drumpot wrote: »

My layman understanding is that A mutation can go either way but a virus generally wants to spread and killing it’s host doesn’t help that. As such a mutation (while the word is scary) is quite often not making the virus more potent and quite often dilutes how bad the virus is but makes it easier to spread. I can be corrected by somebody more informed on virology but that’s what I understand.

You nailed it ... in simple terms the more a virus transmits the less fatal it SHOULD become ... coronavirus's usually go the way of higher transmission less fatality.... but again all new viruses you just cant 100% guarantee what will happen.

That's why it wasnt surprising to hear an Italian doctor state the new cases seem less fatal and making people less "sick" but again you have to take into account the self serving nature of that doctor saying that.

DebDynamite

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not sure about how the lockdown will increase suicide. I'd be fairly certain domestic abuse would be on the increase. I know people are on knife edges and some relationships are tinder boxes ready to ignite.

I would hope some families would be closer than ever after been stuck at home. With parents teaching their kids and having extra time together.

Not everybody lives in a family unit. Some of us are single and live alone. Personally, i’ve had to deal with a relationship breakup during this, due to the pressures of lockdown. Now it seems it’s going to be harder than ever to meet someone else. We’re not all in the same boat.

Ficheall

henke wrote: »

Looks like Kermit has been banned. Did he really do anything to warrant that I'm not sure.

I can't find the offending post either. Perhaps it has been deleted?

Away With The Fairies

Drumpot wrote: »

According to Reuters it’s confirmed. Virus’s mutate , this isn’t a surprise, so far it looks like it’s just most likely to transmit , not necessarily more potent.

All the more reason to mask up.

Ficheall

Drumpot wrote: »

My layman understanding is that A mutation can go either way but a virus generally wants to spread and killing it’s host doesn’t help that. As such a mutation (while the word is scary) is quite often not making the virus more potent and quite often dilutes how bad the virus is but makes it easier to spread. I can be corrected by somebody more informed on virology but that’s what I understand.

It would be easier to be fully optimistic about the decreased lethality if there were more concrete info on the aftereffects of covid.


Stuff like this is very concerning. I know it's twitter, but some research debunking it would be welcome!

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

henke

gizmo23 wrote: »

You nailed it ... in simple terms the more a virus transmits the less fatal it SHOULD become ... coronavirus's usually go the way of higher transmission less fatality.... but again all new viruses you just cant 100% guarantee what will happen.

That's why it wasnt surprising to hear an Italian doctor state the new cases seem less fatal and making people less "sick" but again you have to take into account the self serving nature of that doctor saying that.

Ok I understand nothing is guaranteed but working on that assumption that is is true would it be possibly good news. Ok cases may rise but the effect on people should be less so hospitals an ICU may hold steady. And ultimately over time you get more people with more immunity. And although it could years could the virus eventually burn out. Obviously a vaccine would be ideal and get us there quicker but I'd like to think one day things will be back to normal.

Plumbthedepths

Ficheall wrote: »

It would be easier to be fully optimistic about the decreased lethality if there were more concrete info on the aftereffects of covid.


Stuff like this is very concerning. I know it's twitter, but some research debunking it would be welcome!

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

Nothing really to debunk. Majority that survive infection recover fully with a small number experiencing a longer recovery with some having permanent damage. Much of this is still being researched and other effects become known.

DebDynamite

Eod100 wrote: »

Think Varadkar's response lately to mandatory quarantine is that state wouldn't have enough hotels to put everyone up. If you had mandatory quarantine where Gardai check up on where people are staying if they weren't put up in hotels it would need huge resources. I think it is needed for red countries though so not sure how that will work. Not enough to rely on people to self-isolate.

If there was mandatory quarantine, there’d be feck all people coming there, so it would be definitely possible

s1ippy

Ficheall wrote: »

It would be easier to be fully optimistic about the decreased lethality if there were more concrete info on the aftereffects of covid.


Stuff like this is very concerning. I know it's twitter, but some research debunking it would be welcome!

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

All I have is thousands of people confirming this on a #Slack group.

WhiteMemento9

Ficheall wrote: »

It would be easier to be fully optimistic about the decreased lethality if there were more concrete info on the aftereffects of covid.

Stuff like this is very concerning. I know it's twitter, but some research debunking it would be welcome!

https://twitter.com/DaniOliver/status/1279155358666305541

What research is needed to debunk it? We know already that some people are just affected much more adversely than others in a small number of cases.

Plumbthedepths

s1ippy wrote: »

All I have is thousands of people confirming this on a #Slack group.

Confirming or trying to outdo one another with how bad they had it?

Ficheall

Right, I know it won't be debunked - I mean an idea of how "small" the number is would be good, and wider dissemination of info on the aftereffects. Instead of the "only some old people die" narrative, a "some percentage of you will suffer long-lasting effects" might discourage some of the "covidiots". Two months of diarrhoea might concern some of those more than a chance of their granny dying.

is_that_so

Maybe horror and post-apocalyptic films could be the way to help people deal with this?

Psychologists have found evidence that fans of apocalyptic movies – where global order is upturned – may be more resilient and better prepared to deal with the coronavirus pandemic than the rest of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/01/end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-fans-of-apocalyptic-films

Plumbthedepths

Ficheall wrote: »

Right, I know it won't be debunked - I mean an idea of how "small" the number is would be good, and wider dissemination of info on the aftereffects. Instead of the "only some old people die" narrative, a "some percentage of you will suffer long-lasting effects" might discourage some of the "covidiots". Two months of diarrhoea might concern some of those more than a chance of their granny dying.

I don't believe the HSE has carried out a study yet of the impact on those that contracted the virus. The anecdotal evidence suggests the majority make a full recovery.
May I ask exactly what you are looking for?

gizmo23

henke wrote: »

Ok I understand nothing is guaranteed but working on that assumption that is is true would it be possibly good news. Ok cases may rise but the effect on people should be less so hospitals an ICU may hold steady. And ultimately over time you get more people with more immunity. And although it could years could the virus eventually burn out. Obviously a vaccine would be ideal and get us there quicker but I'd like to think one day things will be back to normal.

Well less potency is always a good thing... but we dont know how long or even if immunity happens which would be vital.

Ideal scenarios for me vaccine , immunity through virus mutating to less fatality or even a drug to battle it ( unfortunately with this you will still lose people to it and it will always be the most vulnerable in society the old sick etc.)

Realistically the virus has been around less than a year ( depending who you listen too) so the answer to 99.9% of questions is maybe we dont know enough about it and unfortunately that is the annoying aspect as we cant predict the next move.

Renjit

is_that_so wrote: »

Maybe horror and post-apocalyptic films could be the way to help people deal with this?



https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/01/end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-fans-of-apocalyptic-films

Locked and loaded!

cnocbui

Westernyelp wrote: »

What recent mutation? Any source for this?

Mutated coronavirus shows significant boost in infectivity

COVID-19-causing viral variant taking over in the United States and Europe now carries more functional, cell-binding spikes.

June 12, 2020

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200612-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

Ficheall

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't believe the HSE has carried out a study yet of the impact on those that contracted the virus. The anecdotal evidence suggests the majority make a full recovery.
May I ask exactly what you are looking for?

Something less vague than "majority" (not a dig at you - it's just a wide range).
Also looking for (some) people to be more concerned about the virus than they are. Not in Ireland specifically; I think we're okay for now, barring imports.

Plumbthedepths

Ficheall wrote: »

Something less vague than "majority" (not a dig at you - it's just a wide range).
Also looking for (some) people to be more concerned about the virus than they are. Not in Ireland specifically; I think we're okay for now, barring imports.

It is the case though that the majority make a full recovery, unfortunately a small number suffer a prolonged recovery within that cohort others experiencing permanent damage. As I said though there is no HSE study available yet.
Are you looking for horror stories to terrify others with because you disagree with their behaviour?