Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Jackman25

gizmo23 wrote: »

And that's completely your prerogative... but the argument is more about the lines after the statement.... which when challenged on ( and as a discussion board you would expect the majority of people to challenge you) such as the break down and it not appearing as bad as it was first reported he just shuts down with a nonsense response.

I don't like singling out anyone and in fact I find Kermit to give some good facts... but if your going to say "strap in" or some such comment then people will challenge you.

I agree with you, but its a waste of time asking and its been the same crack for the last 3 months. It saves your own time and readers to just scroll on.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE Operations update just out.

As of 18:30 , 10 covid paitents in ICU, 6 ventilated. Same number of patients but 1 less on ventilator.

As of 8pm 19 covid paitents in general beds, down 1 from yesterday.

The Mater has 4 paitents in general beds, other hospitals all at 2s and 1s

Weekends always seem depressing with the hospital stats as they don't tend to discharge patients over the weekend, Tuesday seems to be the day to see reductions. But obviously any increase will be seen immediately.

I've a feeling they will start censoring the hospital details soon. If you know someone is in ICU in a certain hospital and there's only them in it and there's a death recorded and the hospital he's in is the only one to see a reduction of 1 patient in ICU, you can kinda figure it was them.

We're back to early days and GDRP issues with cases.

But on a positive note, hospital occupancy is still trending down.

Wolf359f

Gruffalox wrote: »

Ah I remember the old days when mean and median used to be the disputed words of the day. Now it's context.

Mean, medium..... But that's the average?
Gotta love when the journalists (if ya can call them that) were corrected about mean and medium being the average

gizmo23

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Which is 100% factual and correct.

Now hold on while I reach for the world's smallest violin

You stated here either 2/3 months ago the virus was likely to be influenced by weather ? Correct ?

You also stated here that australia was the country to watch as it was entering winter ? Correct ?

So 2/3 months later
Victoria - 442 active cases out of population 6.4 million
NSW - 6 active cases out of popultaion of 7.5 million
Qld- 2 active cases out of population of 5 million
Tasmania - 0 active cases out of population of half a million
Western australia - 4 active cases out of population of 2.7 million
South australia - 0 cases out of population 1.6 million

So looking at that it would suggest your early point of it being a virus affected seasonal would be incorrect? I mean you did suggest we follow australia to see .... or is that just for locals now ?

Kermit.de.frog

gizmo23 wrote: »

You stated here either 2/3 months ago the virus was likely to be influenced by weather ? Correct ?

Nope, change in season

You also stated here that australia was the country to watch as it was entering winter ? Correct ?

Nope

Never said either

Wolf359f

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Whatever the reason the fact that people who needed treatment were avoiding hospitals is catastrophic. And also I wouldn't speak to soon on the suicide situation considering the economic issues this'll cause once the government have to pull the plug on subsidies.

I'm not sure about how the lockdown will increase suicide. I'd be fairly certain domestic abuse would be on the increase. I know people are on knife edges and some relationships are tinder boxes ready to ignite.

I would hope some families would be closer than ever after been stuck at home. With parents teaching their kids and having extra time together.

It's certainly been hard on every household.
There's no sign the government will be pulling the plug on subsidies anytime soon. There's even rumblings it will continue till the end of the year. This is miles apart from our financial crisis in 2008. That's not to say it won't have to be paid back. This time practically interest free at least.

gizmo23

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nope, change in season

And a change of season leads to a change in ...... ?



Nope

Never said either [ ..... I think if you go back to april you find you did

But no matter I think the poster is correct.... it is rather pointless discussing with you if you are going to not stand over something you type when challenged and best to ignore ...

As the saying goes you keep doing you boo boo /QUOTE]

ACitizenErased

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

'Away with the fairies' was hounded out of this thread because he/she lost his/her job a week earlier.

Funny that 'A citizen erased' didn't respond to posts commenting on his/her ability to post all day, every day (with stuff from Twitter)...and his/her attempts to become a de facto mod.

What're ya asking me? Ask away, PM me if you wish. I'm all ears.

I'm unemployed as a result of the pandemic btw, so I don't understand where this whole issue about me posting on here comes from?

Kermit.de.frog

Never said anything about a change in weather, there is more to it than lower temperatures like lack of sunlight and subtle behavioural differences in winter (people indoors longer, less outdoor activity) etc and also winter illnesses etc.

Also never said Australia was one to watch - it has isolated itself, it still has outbreaks despite that however.

South America was always of more interest for many reasons.

gizmo23

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not sure about how the lockdown will increase suicide. I'd be fairly certain domestic abuse would be on the increase. I know people are on knife edges and some relationships are tinder boxes ready to ignite.

I would hope some families would be closer than ever after been stuck at home. With parents teaching their kids and having extra time together.

It's certainly been hard on every household.
There's no sign the government will be pulling the plug on subsidies anytime soon. There's even rumblings it will continue till the end of the year. This is miles apart from our financial crisis in 2008. That's not to say it won't have to be paid back. This time practically interest free at least.

It will be 9 to 12 months down the line that we really see the economical fall out from this ... companies going bust now were more than likely trading at a loss anyway and this was the straw that broke the camels back.

I dont know that much about economics to even debate it if I am honest.

But I would be more worried about getting people spending... people have got use to not spending on things and while things reopen gradually you will get the uptick in spending I think people have an over riding fear of actually spending like they did as they think we are going back to 2008. The october budget will tell alot

Kermit.de.frog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm unemployed as a result of the pandemic btw

Sorry to hear that.

Hopefully this will all be over sooner rather than later.

ACitizenErased

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sorry to hear that.

Hopefully this will all be over sooner rather than later.

Thank you.


According to some the fact I spend time on here during my unemployed days is part of some conspiracy.

nocoverart

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sorry to hear that.

Hopefully this will all be over sooner rather than later.

I think that's the first time I ever thanked one of your posts LOL.

Wolf359f

gizmo23 wrote: »

It will be 9 to 12 months down the line that we really see the economical fall out from this ... companies going bust now were more than likely trading at a loss anyway and this was the straw that broke the camels back.

I dont know that much about economics to even debate it if I am honest.

But I would be more worried about getting people spending... people have got use to not spending on things and while things reopen gradually you will get the uptick in spending I think people have an over riding fear of actually spending like they did as they think we are going back to 2008. The october budget will tell alot

This is different that 2008, 2008 was a credit crisis. The vast majority of companies back then were living on credit.
Today a lot of companies have liquidity, so they are not reliant on credit. Add to the fact they wouldn't have as much debt and while dormant or waking from the lockdown, the government has the wage subsidy in place to help with wages.

About the spending.... I believe you're right on that aspect. There's 2 lines of thinking, people fearing for their job and afraid to spend and those willing to spend by afraid to go out shopping for non essentials.
There's a record amount of savings in banks as of late, mainly with the pandemic payment and people not willing to splash out.

It's certainly a delicate balance, but I don't think it will be as bad as 2008. The people we're bailed out to the most part, not the banks/ It's not wasted money in a way.

gizmo23

Wolf359f wrote: »

This is different that 2008, 2008 was a credit crisis. The vast majority of companies back then were living on credit.
Today a lot of companies have liquidity, so they are not reliant on credit. Add to the fact they wouldn't have as much debt and while dormant or waking from the lockdown, the government has the wage subsidy in place to help with wages.

About the spending.... I believe you're right on that aspect. There's 2 lines of thinking, people fearing for their job and afraid to spend and those willing to spend by afraid to go out shopping for non essentials.
There's a record amount of savings in banks as of late, mainly with the pandemic payment and people not willing to splash out.

It's certainly a delicate balance, but I don't think it will be as bad as 2008. The people we're bailed out to the most part, not the banks/ It's not wasted money in a way.

Well you sound like you know a hell of a lot more than I do on it .... like i said economics is the furthest from my field as anything can be.

I think the irish government were right in what they did. I just dont think to people believe them when they say austerity isn't the way to go as they say the deepest cuts take the longest to heal ... and while I loath myself for agreeing with them ... sinn fein could be on to something with the voucher for tourism idea... anything to boost consumer confidence.

Wolf359f

gizmo23 wrote: »

Well you sound like you know a hell of a lot more than I do on it .... like i said economics is the furthest from my field as anything can be.

I think the irish government were right in what they did. I just dont think to people believe them when they say austerity isn't the way to go as they say the deepest cuts take the longest to heal ... and while I loath myself for agreeing with them ... sinn fein could be on to something with the voucher for tourism idea... anything to boost consumer confidence.

I'm just positive and can clearly see a difference between our economy in 2020 and back in 2008. They are totally different.

The voucher for tourism idea, I actually do agree with. For the most part I don't agree with Sinn Fein policies, but a holiday voucher for holidaying at home, I can see the benefits of. But that depends on so much though. If we limit travel to and from Ireland, I can see the benefit. Otherwise people will just spend abroad. On the flip side, if we welcome travelers from safe countries, they can't benefit from the voucher as much as a reduction in hospitality tax.

It's certainly a very fine line the government have to thread. I certainly don't envy them.

fritzelly

Anyone know whats happening with the app - thought it was supposed to be going live this week just needing to be signed off by government or are FF starting a clusterf*ck already dealing with Willie O'Dea

Goldengirl

1641 wrote: »

That is based on the figures provided by the different countries themselves and all are reporting differently.

We do know that many countries were not reporting nursing home deaths unless they were confirmed Covid by testing, and many were not testing in nursing homes in the early stages, at least.

Also in Ireland we reported deaths where Covid was noted as present clinically, whether or not it was the primary or only cause of death. Again this was not the case everywhere.

Finally we will only know how we compare with other countries when we total figures for all excess deaths.
It may turn out to be as you say or it may not. We will have to wait for the facts of it.

Very true .
I think we have been one if the best in the class for our death reporting and maybe more than that , but time will tell .
Some other countries are not reporting deaths that have not been confirmed as Covid by testing even though it fits the clinical presentation . Germany was underreporting early on in the pandemic, not sure if they have readjusted those numbers at this stage .

mandrake04

gizmo23 wrote: »

You stated here either 2/3 months ago the virus was likely to be influenced by weather ? Correct ?

You also stated here that australia was the country to watch as it was entering winter ? Correct ?

So 2/3 months later
Victoria - 442 active cases out of population 6.4 million
NSW - 6 active cases out of popultaion of 7.5 million
Qld- 2 active cases out of population of 5 million
Tasmania - 0 active cases out of population of half a million
Western australia - 4 active cases out of population of 2.7 million
South australia - 0 cases out of population 1.6 million

So looking at that it would suggest your early point of it being a virus affected seasonal would be incorrect? I mean you did suggest we follow australia to see .... or is that just for locals now ?

Flu is seasonal, but it relies on travel to bring it in as its not native to Australia and some years are worse than others.

Flu numbers is practically non existent due to international quarantine and social distancing (although the latter is not really that strict), even though flu testing has definitely increased and is inline with covid as they are now tested simultaneously.

I would imagine Covid like flu relies on people being indoors, damp clothing and surfaces. But bottom line if you are successful keeping it out..... it ceases to be a problem. If you look at the stats Australia was similar flu numbers as last year but quickly dropped off when travel was restricted.







Victoria really fucked up, they were the only state that allowed the quarantine travelers to be guarded by civilians rather than the Army/Navy. The softock security guards let travellers outside for walks and joined them for smokes, go to the 7/11 etc. Its now believed that most of the cases there are directly or indirectly connected to travellers and people who unknowingly came into contact with them.

TOMs WIFE

Arghus wrote: »

Gardaí to start checking pubs to ensure Covid-19 guidelines being followed

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/garda%C3%AD-to-start-checking-pubs-to-ensure-covid-19-guidelines-being-followed-1.4295739?mode=amp

Glad to hear this. Hopefully it isn't just hot-air from the Guards. I know of plenty of pubs this week that were letting people stay drinking for hours and hours.

The Gardaí ignored mass gatherings over the last month or so, and didn't intervene in traveller funerals and many other gatherings. But it's a lot easier for them to check out if you are having a chicken curry with your pint? And all for a 3 week period - like Covid somehow gave us confirmation that this would be sufficient? It's pathetic imo.

it's not clear to me how letting the same people stay 3 hours rather than 1.75 hours or whatever, has an impact on the virus spreading. Is there a study that said if you are in 2m contact with others for 2 hours you'll be ok from covid but if you stray longer than that you're doomed?

Are some people just resenting the freedom being allowed to people to start living a quasi normal life again?

Arghus wrote: »

I know of plenty of pubs this week that were letting people stay drinking for hours and hours.

So what? Did they become more contagious following the 1.75 hours as the evening went on?

Whole thing smacks of small minded manginas afraid of their own shadows, who'd love us to be going around in PPE for the rest of our lives (and masked up to avoid flu) and resenting people that want to get back to some sort of normal society, even if that carries some element of risk.

Jesus, mankind would not have got anywhere without taking risks. Some of you guys sound like you'd be afraid to work in Tesco.

Goldengirl

caveat emptor wrote: »

Well said. I'm not going to adhere to any more guidelines with this crap going on.

Ah no, not my intention to turn people anti 🙂 but we will be quarantining after our staycation it looks like !

MipMap

fritzelly wrote: »

Anyone know whats happening with the app - thought it was supposed to be going live this week just needing to be signed off by government or are FF starting a clusterf*ck already dealing with Willie O'Dea

Could'nt be bothered downlownding it. In a society where 80% to 85% cound'nt be bothered wearing a mask to protect me why should I do anything to protect them. Bluetooth uses too much of my battery.! Why should I ?

Goldengirl

Igotadose wrote: »

They did much better than we've done in Ireland. How do you think we'd have managed the Diamond Princess problem? Probably sent out the Navy to sink the ship or something.

Really quite simple - wear a mask when outside or interacting with others. Personally have been doing so since about January.

Sorry to reply to your comments so late .
But ...
I find it surprising you single out masks as being the saviour against the virus but are happy to dispense with social distancing and handwashing as basic public health measures!
Masks are useless without handwashing, as the moment you touch the outside of the mask if it has the virus on it you have the potential to become infected...unless you wash your hands .
And social distancing even at 1 m is safer than wearing a mask . Most masks don't filter out anything once they get wet .
Japanese social distance as part of their culture , talk quietly and don't speak on the trains or to strangers unless spoken to , and is thought to be one of the main reasons they have kept cases down.
Edit. I am not anti mask though , generally , they are definitely necessary on public transport and some indoor spaces.

Japanese distance as part of their culture.. There are people hired to squeeze people into trains. They have the most packed trains in the world.

Masks are not useless if you don't wash your hands. I don't even understand your point.

And if our breaths travel over a metre in the air, how can standing a metre apart be safer if the virus is travelling inhibited from me to you?

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Japanese distance as part of their culture.. There are people hired to squeeze people into trains. They have the most packed trains in the world.

Masks are not useless if you don't wash your hands. I don't even understand your point.

And if our breaths travel over a metre in the air, how can standing a metre apart be safer if the virus is travelling inhibited from me to you?

Do you know that the point of masks is to filter the droplets as they leave you but also as you breathe in, although most masks will not filter smaller particles effectively unless high grade healthcare filter masks ?
If you touch the mask AND DON'T WASH YOUR HANDS you can transfer the virus to your hands then face, mouth , nose etc. You must clean your hands before and after using a mask. It is really the basic first lesson in how to use a mask and this is one of the reasons why masks were discouraged in the first instance , by NPHET .
My point was yes , it is safer to be only 1 m apart, which isn't the safest distance as you quite rightly said , than just a mask used badly without handwashing.
Sorry if not clearer earlier .

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

Do you know that the point of masks is to filter the droplets as they leave you but also as you breathe in, although most masks will not filter smaller particles effectively unless high grade healthcare filter masks ?
If you touch the mask AND DON'T WASH YOUR HANDS you can transfer the virus to your hands then face, mouth , nose etc. You must clean your hands before and after using a mask. It is really the basic first lesson in how to use a mask and this is one of the reasons why masks were discouraged in the first instance , by NPHET .
My point was yes , it is safer to be only 1 m apart, which isn't the safest distance as you quite rightly said , than just a mask used badly without handwashing.
Sorry if not clearer earlier .

If the virus is on the outside of the mask for you to touch, it has done its job of stopping it entering your mouth.

I really find it hard to take an argument seriously when it rests on that premise. Yes, washing hands is better. But masks are not useless without washing. They're reducing the spread to others and in your example, adding extra steps for it to enter your body.

Goldengirl

Boggles wrote: »

No they weren't.

The countries that have done the best did these 3 things.

1. Locked down early and enforced the restrictions.
2. Closed their borders early.
3. Mandated for masks early.

Most recent Europe study from Germany

Face Masks Considerably Reduce
COVID-19 Cases in Germany



Like I said the science denial is worrying.

Countries that did the best were largely those that had experience of SARS before and this time had ensured they had policies in place for
emergency lockdown , yes,
closing borders, yes,
AND
had testing and tracing of contacts measures set up and ready to go , either by app or old fashioned human beings !
This is the key factor especially in South Korea, and is widely recognised as the edge they had over other parts of the world .

Mask wearing while is something that did not need to be enforced in these countries as they were used to wearing masks following the SARS outbreak .

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the virus is on the outside of the mask for you to touch, it has done its job of stopping it entering your mouth.

I really find it hard to take an argument seriously when it rests on that premise. Yes, washing hands is better. But masks are not useless without washing. They're reducing the spread to others and in your example, adding extra steps for it to enter your body.

I am not saying they don't stop some particles but ordinary cloth or other masks will not prevent you getting the virus . They will help you not to pass it on if you cough or sneeze and MAY help if someone coughs or sneezes back at you but they won't stop everything . They are not high grade filter masks , and even those while better , don't catch everything .
Repeat... If you touch the mask AND DON'T WASH YOUR HANDS you run the risk of infecting yourself, and this is my point .
Not that masks are useless , but without handwashing you are increasing your risk .
This op stated that SD and handwashing could be deemed unnecessary in favour of mask wearing.

Edit . I have stated 3 times now what I mean , so if you don't understand about the necessity of handwashing/ sanitising with maskwearing, I suggest you go to the HSE website to read up on the correct way to put on and take off a mask .

Goldengirl

Goldengirl wrote: »

I am not saying they don't stop some particles but ordinary cloth or other masks will not prevent you getting the virus . They will help you not to pass it on if you cough or sneeze and MAY help if someone coughs or sneezes back at you but they won't stop everything . They are not high grade filter masks , and even those while better , don't catch everything .
Repeat... If you touch the mask AND DON'T WASH YOUR HANDS you run the risk of infecting yourself, and this is my point .
Not that masks are useless , but without handwashing you are increasing your risk .
This op stated that SD and handwashing could be deemed unnecessary in favour of mask wearing.

Well I don't agree with that. I think they're all important.

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well I don't agree with that. I think they're all important.

So do I !