Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

owlbethere · 03-07-2020 09:05AM

I was listening to one of the medical professionals. This morning on the radio. I think it's the person who took over from Tony but I can't be certain. He said that cases of covid in Ireland from travel and abroad is increasing. He was definitely concerned about travel. I think it was reported yesterday that 20% of new cases in ireland last week were travel related. I know we have low numbers now and it's good to see the low numbers but 20% associated with travel is a lot. That 20% has potential to grow over the course of the summer from the entitled crowd who are so eager to get away on a foreign holiday.

Igotadose · 03-07-2020 09:08AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Very interesting read:

HIQA’s Chief Scientist, Dr Conor Teljeur, said: “Based on an analysis of the death notices reported on RIP.ie since 2010, there is clear evidence of excess deaths occurring since the first reported death due to COVID-19 in Ireland. There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June. However, the number of excess deaths is substantially less than the reported 1,709 COVID-19-related deaths over the same period.”

Very interesting, perhaps we have been over reporting Covid deaths by up to a third. That’s great news from COVID death rate perspective.

Or, maybe the HSE haven't issued or enforced conformance to death reporting guidelines. Is every corpse given a COVID test like it is in NYC? Data gathering in Ireland by the HSE is laughable in most cases. Further, anyone tried to get a Covid test lately? Talked to 2 lads last week who were in farming and had to be tested. One said he was, didn't hear for a week then was told the test was 'bad' or 'broken' or 'lost' and had to get it again. The other said he never heard anything back.

Anecdotal, but when an organization has really no incentive to do well like the HSE - there's rarely consequence for daily bad behavior - you have to take anything they say with a grain of salt.

03-07-2020 09:08AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

I do think the nursing homes were dealt with , with very little planning or thought , as you should expect those in charge of Operations st the HSE to have down to a tee .......

We are among the worst in the world... Canada , UK , Sweden .. for our deaths in the sector .
The worst of it is the passing of blame from all concerned , NPHET to HSE to HIQA .
The only person I have heard apologise and say they got it wrong was Dr Colm Henry on a briefing one day , but I never heard anything but excuses from Paul Reid .
Maybe worried about admitting liability ?

That is based on the figures provided by the different countries themselves and all are reporting differently.

We do know that many countries were not reporting nursing home deaths unless they were confirmed Covid by testing, and many were not testing in nursing homes in the early stages, at least.

Also in Ireland we reported deaths where Covid was noted as present clinically, whether or not it was the primary or only cause of death. Again this was not the case everywhere.

Finally we will only know how we compare with other countries when we total figures for all excess deaths.
It may turn out to be as you say or it may not. We will have to wait for the facts of it.

Christy42 · 03-07-2020 09:10AM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ShaneBeattyNews/status/1278959022062829568

Brilliant news (very strangely reported). We are likely overreporting covid deaths by quite a large margin.

Given the issues with reporting I prefer to overreporting and correct down afterwards.

Gruffalux · 03-07-2020 09:13AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Brilliant news (very strangely reported). We are likely overreporting covid deaths by quite a large margin.

Given the issues with reporting I prefer to overreporting and correct down afterwards.

If the analyses is based on RIP.ie then not all deaths are reported there.

03-07-2020 09:16AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Very interesting read:

HIQA’s Chief Scientist, Dr Conor Teljeur, said: “Based on an analysis of the death notices reported on RIP.ie since 2010, there is clear evidence of excess deaths occurring since the first reported death due to COVID-19 in Ireland. There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June. However, the number of excess deaths is substantially less than the reported 1,709 COVID-19-related deaths over the same period.”

Very interesting, perhaps we have been over reporting Covid deaths by up to a third. That’s great news from COVID death rate perspective.

That is not really surprising as from the start we were reporting all deaths where Covid was clinically suspected as being present, and whether it was the only or primary cause of death. This was not generally the case internationally - although I think Belgium, at least, was the same.

Some of the people who died and are enumerated as Covid deaths here would have been very seriously or terminally ill and unfortunately would have died within the reporting period even without Covid.
It is only when the figures for excess deaths are available for all countries, including our own official figures, that meaningful comparisons will be possible.

Plumbthedepths · 03-07-2020 09:17AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I was listening to one of the medical professionals. This morning on the radio. I think it's the person who took over from Tony but I can't be certain. He said that cases of covid in Ireland from travel and abroad is increasing. He was definitely concerned about travel. I think it was reported yesterday that 20% of new cases in ireland last week were travel related. I know we have low numbers now and it's good to see the low numbers but 20% associated with travel is a lot. That 20% has potential to grow over the course of the summer from the entitled crowd who are so eager to get away on a foreign holiday.

At present we have people coming here from America and the UK no requirement to isolate other than an advisory. I'll add two of the worst countries to handle the crisis yet your whinging is directed at your fellow citizens who wish to travel to safe countries? I will also say these same people are aware of the measures they need to take.
A phrase used so very often ' you couldn't make it up'.
Take a trip to Kerry but I'd suggest you isolate afterwards what with all the Americans roaming around.

YellowBucket · 03-07-2020 09:18AM

Gruffalox wrote: »

If the analyses is based on RIP.ie then not all deaths are reported there.

Not all, but from what I gather from what I've read it could be as high as 98% of them, which is quite unusual by international standards, but such is Ireland's tendency to want to announce funerals. For example, I think our obituary announcements on radio stations (other than in Dublin and Cork) seems to be quite unique to Ireland.

How accurate that figure is though I don't know, but that's what's been quoted.

What would concern me a little is that we probably are not capturing deaths in households from groups that aren't as long in Ireland. You see fewer non-Irish names on RIP.ie than you'd expect, given the diversity of the population here.

You could also be excluding some lone elderly people or very vulnerable people e.g. homeless without much family support. I'd suspect there's definitely an element of the more marginalised parts of Irish society who would probably pass away without being announced anywhere, if there's nobody to announce their passing. Sadly, that does happen and I think it's probably more prevalent in the bigger cities than rural areas / small towns.

I mean there have been cases of pensioners found dead at home in Cork and Dublin where they weren't noticed for weeks. There was a particularly tragic case in Cork City of an 84 year old who'd been dead for 7 months before anyone noticed.

That being said, the RIP figures are still an accurate sample, if you accept that they may not catch everyone but they're still a fairly sample that might give you some sense of scale.

Assetbacked · 03-07-2020 09:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Alabama students hold COVID-19 parties with prize for first sick person

McKinstry said party organizers purposely invited guests who tested positive for COVID-19.

“They put money in a pot, and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. It makes no sense,” she said, according to the New York Post.

Understatement of the year award!

YellowBucket · 03-07-2020 09:29AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Understatement of the year award!

Unfortunately those COVID-19 parties in the US were a mixture of some high risk notion of trying to get herd immunity - similar to 'pox parties' and the "Tide (Ariel) Pod Challenge" where idiots tried to eat laundry detergent pods!

A mix of misinformation / poor information / downplaying risk from political figures - notably Trump and the usual idiocy of the bravado of a particular cohort online.

Renjit · 03-07-2020 09:30AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Understatement of the year award!

Not an understatement. Guess which age group is likely least risk averse? Just for the kicks :cool:

WoollyRedHat · 03-07-2020 09:31AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

After initially making the mistake of allowing flights from Italy and the hordes from Cheltenham , when cases were starting in Ireland , we went into .lockdown and stayed with the restrictions longer than every other country , sacrificing so much to get our numbers down. Yay well done us !

Now we are just coming out of that, and are being allowed to travel around our own country , not being encouraged abroad mind you , to countries similar to ourselves , and yet we find ourselves trapped between the visitors from the UK on the beaches , and the Americans in the hotels , the 2 of the worst sxxxshow nations in this pandemic !

Why the hell did we bother locking down if this is the way it is going to be thrown away ?

This is our country . Micheál needs to get a grip and stand up to these basket case countries and ban them until they get their collective act together . This is not time for diplomacy when all that we have achieved here over the last few months looks like being thrown away for 30 pieces of silver/ few dollars more .
It looks like the politicians are more upset about their squabbles over who gets what job, than dealing with this car crash of a holiday season , and the looming resurgence of the virus .

You couldn't write the stuff.....oh wait...

This times 100. We need decisive action from our government now.

Very good point about risk to domestic visitors going to spots where people from hotspots are currently staying in. This is how another country-wide outbreak can happen. In such a scenario it's hard to argue with allowing people to go on holiday abroad, where risk of contracting virus is lower if the current situation continues or worsens.

People travelling from high-risk areas cannot be trusted to cooperate in interest of public health. Their presence.here at this moment in time already displays a lack of respect for the local population.

If situation is allowed to continue unabated, then we need to test these people on arrival at the very least.

gabeeg · 03-07-2020 09:40AM

Gruffalox wrote: »

If the analyses is based on RIP.ie then not all deaths are reported there.

Seems very odd that a body like HIQA would use data from a privately owned website to inform something like this.

wadacrack · 03-07-2020 09:40AM

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_how_the_pandemic_will_shape_the_near_future?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=2020-7-01&utm_campaign=social&fbclid=IwAR2F_eD-jB8SfCjKD7IfiukU2FH1JU8i8KInQnC_oSWp5QGWu2SIP3IB5L0

wadacrack · 03-07-2020 09:47AM

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_how_the_pandemic_will_shape_the_near_future?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=2020-7-01&utm_campaign=social&fbclid=IwAR2F_eD-jB8SfCjKD7IfiukU2FH1JU8i8KInQnC_oSWp5QGWu2SIP3IB5L0

Gael23 · 03-07-2020 09:48AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

is_that_so · 03-07-2020 09:49AM

A piece with some thoughts on "herd immunity".

While determining that threshold for COVID-19 is critical, a lot of nuance is involved in calculating exactly how much of the population needs to be immune for herd immunity to take effect and protect the people who aren’t immune.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/

ednwireland · 03-07-2020 09:49AM

plenty of visitors arriving in SW donegal (i say plenty but nothing like normal numbersjust weird after months of an empty town)

mostly brits but a few european tourists around

03-07-2020 09:52AM

gabeeg wrote: »

Seems very odd that a body like HIQA would use data from a privately owned website to inform something like this.

Not really - as it is the most accurate currently available. Apparently it correlates quite well with the official register over recent years, while not capturing all deaths.
As Ireland allows 3 months for next-of-kin to officially register deaths it will be some months yet until we have the officially registered totals. No doubt they will use these figures when available.

Rob A. Bank · 03-07-2020 10:05AM

ednwireland wrote: »

plenty of visitors arriving in SW donegal (i say plenty but nothing like normal numbersjust weird after months of an empty town)

mostly brits but a few european tourists around

Really amazing how so many have finished their 2 week quarantine so quickly !

Perhaps we should be informing theoretical physicists that there have been many tourists breaching the space-time continuum in Ireland recently.

:rolleyes:

Rob A. Bank · 03-07-2020 10:39AM

The Financial Times has an article about some futuristic, innovative and experimental technologies to keep offices and buildings clear of the coronavirus.

Self-cleaning surfaces coated with molecular spikes to rupture viruses and pathogens.

Germicidal ultraviolet Irradiation to sterilize the air and also UV disinfecting robots operating at night.

Real-time environmental monitors that “check the pulse” of a building with biosensors, which may be able to detect coronaviruses in the air realtime.

Changing the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to avoid recirculation and increasing flow rates of fresh air. Also experimental methods of sanitizing the ventilation air.

fr336 · 03-07-2020 10:43AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm fairly certain COVID won't cause Ryanair to 'burn to the ground' :pac::pac:

Correct. O'Leary said they have enough cash to tide them over until Spring 2021 even if they didn't fly any flights at all. It wouldn't be great for them, there would be loads of job losses, but Ryanair are far from going out of business anytime soon.

Quantum Erasure · 03-07-2020 10:48AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

After initially making the mistake of allowing flights from Italy and the hordes from Cheltenham , when cases were starting in Ireland , we went into .lockdown and stayed with the restrictions longer than every other country , sacrificing so much to get our numbers down. Yay well done us !

Now we are just coming out of that, and are being allowed to travel around our own country , not being encouraged abroad mind you , to countries similar to ourselves , and yet we find ourselves trapped between the visitors from the UK on the beaches , and the Americans in the hotels , the 2 of the worst sxxxshow nations in this pandemic !

Why the hell did we bother locking down if this is the way it is going to be thrown away ?

This is our country . Micheneeds to get a grip and stand up to these basket case countries and ban them until they get their collective act together . This is not time for diplomacy when all that we have achieved here over the last few months looks like being thrown away for 30 pieces of silver/ few dollars more .
It looks like the politicians are more upset about their squabbles over who gets what job, than dealing with this car crash of a holiday season , and the looming resurgence of the virus .

You couldn't write the stuff.....oh wait...

These beaches WILL be open for the 4th of July

bb1234567 · 03-07-2020 10:55AM

Gael23 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2020/0703/1151127-virus-report/

Despite the headline, I think many people on this thread will be surprised that excess mortality over the last 4 months in Ireland has been 13% above normal, or 1200 more deaths than expected.

Particularly in the period of late March to early May, deaths were 33% above normal.

Ficheall · 03-07-2020 10:56AM

Drumpot wrote: »

Very interesting read:

HIQA’s Chief Scientist, Dr Conor Teljeur, said: “Based on an analysis of the death notices reported on RIP.ie since 2010, there is clear evidence of excess deaths occurring since the first reported death due to COVID-19 in Ireland. There were about 1,100 to 1,200 more deaths than we would expect based on historical patterns; a 13% increase between 11 March to 16 June. However, the number of excess deaths is substantially less than the reported 1,709 COVID-19-related deaths over the same period.”

Very interesting, perhaps we have been over reporting Covid deaths by up to a third. That’s great news from COVID death rate perspective.

Would be interested in seeing a more detailed breakdown before coming to any conclusions. Road deaths down during restrictions, for example. But then 'people not going in to hospital' deaths probably up. The restrictions probably had too much of an impact on people's lives for excess deaths to be a particularly accurate measure.

bb1234567 · 03-07-2020 11:07AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Would be interested in seeing a more detailed breakdown before coming to any conclusions. Road deaths down during restrictions, for example. But then 'people not going in to hospital' deaths probably up. The restrictions probably had too much of an impact on people's lives for excess deaths to be a particularly accurate measure.

I'd say it is unlikely given article says excess deaths were down in June despite plenty of restricttions still in place but the virus was killing very few at that stage.

Larbre34 · 03-07-2020 11:25AM

The explanation seems obvious to me.

Those 1,700 deaths are reported as Covid positive, so thats fairly well fixed. The reason 'excess' deaths don't match that figure, is that other causes of death have been markedly reduced by reason of the Covid 19 lockdown and protection measures being in place.

Road deaths, workplace deaths, surgical and post-surgical and hospital borne infection deaths all way down because what brings them about in a typical year wasn't going on.

Elderly people nearing the natural end of life have to die of something, be it an infection, bog standard virus, pneumonia, a slow progression cancer, scepticimea, heart and/or multi-organ failure due to reduced oxygen saturation for any of the above reasons.

So, in one sense Covid stopped some excess, extraneous deaths, while at the same time directly causing the deaths of highly vulnerable people that otherwise would have succumbed to something else.

Ergo, 1700 Covid deaths, but only 1200 deaths over and above the average.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-07-2020 11:27AM

Things look to be going backward for one of Europe's starlets.

Austria reports 109 new cases today, it's highest since April 17th.

This follows 107 cases on Wednesday and 68 yesterday. The number of active cases has increased quickly since last weekend.

From 470 to 787 now - which shows how relatively fast things can start to go south.

bb1234567 · 03-07-2020 11:31AM

It depends on the source, if it's 100 new community transmission cases then things have gone south, but if they are a cluster in a factory then the number is pretty irrelevant.

Having said that though a guy I know in Zurich said that things were very relaxed there recently but everyone was a bit shocked by a large cluster outbreak linked to a nightclub, apparently some more restrictions may be put in place again .

caveat emptor · 03-07-2020 11:33AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

After initially making the mistake of allowing flights from Italy and the hordes from Cheltenham , when cases were starting in Ireland , we went into .lockdown and stayed with the restrictions longer than every other country , sacrificing so much to get our numbers down. Yay well done us !

Now we are just coming out of that, and are being allowed to travel around our own country , not being encouraged abroad mind you , to countries similar to ourselves , and yet we find ourselves trapped between the visitors from the UK on the beaches , and the Americans in the hotels , the 2 of the worst sxxxshow nations in this pandemic !

Why the hell did we bother locking down if this is the way it is going to be thrown away ?

This is our country . Micheál needs to get a grip and stand up to these basket case countries and ban them until they get their collective act together . This is not time for diplomacy when all that we have achieved here over the last few months looks like being thrown away for 30 pieces of silver/ few dollars more .
It looks like the politicians are more upset about their squabbles over who gets what job, than dealing with this car crash of a holiday season , and the looming resurgence of the virus .

You couldn't write the stuff.....oh wait...

Well said. I'm not going to adhere to any more guidelines with this crap going on.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Comments