Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

AdamD wrote: »

Why does everything have to be so black and white?

Its okay to accept that:
1: The lockdown absolutely reduced the amount of deaths
and
2: The initial predictions/models were utterly miles off regardless

This is the scale by which they were off:

Without a shift in strategy, Sweden was predicted to exceed 40,000 deaths by May and 100,000 by August. But, what’s the reality on the ground? In May the total number of deaths was 2,586. That’s 15 times less than predicted. Current estimates (June 16) put Sweden’s final death toll at about 6300 – that’s 93,700 less than predicted.

Link

For people still to be claiming that millions would have died is .... I don't know what the word for it is. They should be trying to walk back these predictions as gingerly, and with as little embarrassment to themselves, as possible. It was terrifying visions of deaths in the hundreds of thousands and millions which convinced the masses of people to go along with lockdown in the first place.

growleaves wrote: »

This is the scale by which they were off:

Link

Ah here your poster boy is Sweden? Time to jump off that bandwagon, their economy is wrecked, their holidaymakers are being treated like pariahs, trust in their government is falling, their reputation is shattered and worst of all they still have a largely out of control epidemic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-sweden-gallivare/worried-swedish-district-shuts-facilities-as-covid-19-spreads-idUSL8N2DU233

hmmm wrote: »

Models aren't meant to be horoscopes, they are meant to predict what will happen if nothing changes.

I don't know of a single country which has not changed behaviours as a consequence of the virus. Even the Swedish population has implemented large social distancing measures, and in places like Brazil and the US individual governors have ignored their Presidents to impose restrictions.

False, and this shows you never so much as glanced at the Imperial model since if you did you would know it included predictions of mass death with mitigation measures.

Social distancing was one of the mitigation measures - along with home isolation of suspect cases and home quarantine of those living with suspect cases. Even with these measures in place the prediction was: "However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths [in the UK] and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over”.

hmmm wrote: »

Your refusal to acknowledge that the restrictions and social distancing we introduced stopped the virus is just weird. Are you one of these 5g people?

I think you missed my sarcasm. Don't worry I have more than 4 active braincells. Its pretty obvious to the vast majority of semi-educated and above folk exactly how the worst case situations were avoided.

It is however completely baffling for some more unfortunate but most can figure out what happened.

growleaves wrote: »

False, and this shows you never so much as glanced at the Imperial model since if you did you would know it included predictions of mass death with mitigation measures.

Social distancing was one of the mitigation measures - along with home isolation of suspect cases and home quarantine of those living with suspect cases. Even with these measures in place the prediction was: "However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths [in the UK] and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over”.

The Imperial report went through a number of scenarios, one of which was uncontrolled spread and another other was based on the previous working assumption that simply cocooning people at risk, and allowing a managed spread, would be sufficient to keep capacity below ICU. The model showed that this wouldn't be enough, so the UK had to scramble to bring in other measures.

I also remember seeing interviews with UK modelers back at the time of the Wuhan outbreak, and their estimates of the numbers infected were way off. I'm not here to defend a modelling team, it's obvious from what we've seen in places like Italy, Brazil, Spain, New York, China that this virus is dangerous.

hmmm wrote: »

Your refusal to accept that the restrictions and social distancing we introduced stopped the virus is just weird. Are you one of these 5g people?

I think you've picked up the wrong end of PJ's stick there...

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Do they have 26% unemployment? Or 20%?

Arent you the poster who was promising swift return of employment once restrictions are lifted? 4 weeks on after 18 may, still 40k construction workers on that 350 a week....

You appear to be confusing me with someone else. Last I heard the Swedish economy had contracted at about the same rate as the rest of Europe (c. 6%), and their neighbours have kept their borders closed.

hmmm wrote: »

You appear to be confusing me with someone else. Last I heard the Swedish economy had contracted at about the same rate as the rest of Europe (c. 6%), and their neighbours have kept their borders closed.

Very good. Much better than our predicted 12 to 15% gdp fall.

growleaves wrote: »

My poster boy?

The point in this particular discussion is that Sweden has inadvertently proved that the predictions of millions of deaths sans lockdown is false. I say inadvertent because its not as if Tegnell avoided lockdown just to falsify Imperial College's model - nonetheless that's a side effect of his actions.

Sweden has also proved twiddling thumbs hoping for magical immunity doesnt work when compared to its scandanavian neighbours. It also didnt leave their economy booming, so the only thing it succeeded in was more citizens being killed.

Hi guys.

Has Michael Levitt had anything to say about the still growing numbers of the virus in The United States or the accelerating pace of infections worldwide? I know that lockdowns had absolutely nothing to do with suppressing the virus, it was just a big coincidence, and I know that the states that opened up earliest now being the ones with rapidly rising case numbers is also totally coincidental. God, so many coincidences!

I've been looking but there seems to be nothing out there from him for a few weeks: the latest story I could find was from Russia Today, where he was saying Chinese figures are accurate. He must know why the infection hasn't burned itself like he predicted it would?

Oh dear. I see we're hitting all the talking points: Norway has had less deaths. Sweden's economy is ruined, their "reputation is shattered." And?

I'm mentioning Sweden in relation to a single point: the claim that 100,000 Swedes would die without lockdown, and employing only mitigation measures like social distancing. The same prediction was made for the UK and other places. Tegnell has proven it false though it wasn't his intention to do so.

This is the basis on which lockdown was 'sold' to a terrified world, so it's not a small point.