Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Will they still be so understanding if they lose their jobs, the Covid payment is cancelled and the bank won't give them a payment holiday on their mortgage?

The vast vast majority of people don't understand how the economy works.

That much is abundantly clear, on all sides of this debate on here

MickeyLeari

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

It's interesting that when posts about the dangers of Covid are posted there are immediate requests for hard evidence yet the latest rambling speculation by some economist is taken as gospel by the same posters.

Similarly, people wanting to be cautious about the virus are "living in fear" while those bricking it about the economy are "just being realistic".

The whole world didn't shut down for the craic like.

Economists are pretty much aligned on the damage that a lock down does which is disproportionate to the current risk.

Others, more generally, are fully appraised of the reality in respect to Unemployment, business failure, government borrowing, programme cut backs, wage reductions, mortgage defaults, mental health issues, and domestic abuse. That does not get into the broader health issues of the lockdown in terms of screening etc.

Hurrache

Captain_Crash wrote: »

They may well become long term yes, but we don't know this yet as this virus hasn't been around long enough to have any data.

A couple of posts up, they do know as the lung damage is the same as what it was in other diseases.

Hurrache

MickeyLeari wrote: »

All interesting but perhaps you can provide links to peer reviewed research in making such statements.

Lol.

Deleted User wrote: »

There was plenty of "experts" telling us that millions were going to die of Covid 19. All based on scientific models etc.

It just hasn't happened has it?

And now the narrative is switching to "Oh but everyone will have long term damage".

No, I don't believe it at all. The words if, could, potentially seem to constantly make there way into these studies.

And a lol for you too.

Those findings are actually what happened, not a prediction. And I see you're throwing your strawman in "oh but everyone". You're the only one to use "everyone".

You guys are laughably predictable.

MickeyLeari

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Economists are constantly predicting doom. The saying about a stopped clock comes to mind.

I understand the reality you're talking about. Things are going to be very difficult as a result of this. I'm not denying that. I'm just taking issue with people who want to stick their heads on their sand about the unfortunate reality of the virus.

We're going to need to figure out a way out of this mess and it's nowhere near as simple as just hitting the restart button and returning to normal.

There is a spectrum here in terms of views which seems to be easily forgotten. One can have a view that the lock down went on too long and consider that the virus is dangerous.

MickeyLeari

Hurrache wrote: »

Lol.



And a lol for you too.

Those findings are actually what happened, not a prediction. And I see you're throwing your strawman in "oh but everyone". You're the only one to use "everyone".

You guys are laughably predictable.

You are making wild assertions without evidence. This is a bit like President Trump.

Captain_Crash

Hurrache wrote: »

A couple of posts up, they do know as the lung damage is the same as what it was in other diseases.

I cant comment on your post as you didn't link the study but what you say is there are covid patients who have damage that is believed will be long term.

That's all good, but that hasn't happened yet so we cant say for sure. One poster noted it was a study of 70 people, if so I agree with them you cannot conclude it as the norm as of yet. Another asked if its been peer reviewed. Did you answer them?... has it?

One thing I will say about that study (presuming what you are saying is accurate), is that it was conducted in an area of the world with notoriously bad air quality, so its reasonable to assume lung damage is a common condition of day to day life for many of them.

My own view on it, and I stress I'm not a medical professional, is that if long term lung damage was a common after effect of this, we'd know about it, the media and government would be all over it, and a lot more resources would be going into finding out for sure. The fact this isn't happening tells me its not a huge worry.

So until its concluded otherwise by a number of studies, I would presume that long term lung damage is not something to have much concern over. I.e. chances of you getting it and suffering these consequences is low.

Hurrache

MickeyLeari wrote: »

You are making wild assertions without evidence. This is a bit like President Trump.

Because I won't give you a peer review? Like I said, they're actually numbers ffs, not research.

Do you think the numbers of people diagnosed don't get released until the document is peer reviewed and second opinions given on all cases ?

- Hey, what happened to your legs?
- I fell on a train track and they got chopped off.
- Don't believe you, have you got a peer reviewed document to back up the fact your legs are gone, or are gone for the reasons you say they are?
- I'm serious, look! [wiggles stumps]
- No, you're talking ****e, you could easily have woke up without them.

ixoy

Hurrache wrote: »

Those findings are actually what happened, not a prediction.

Yes it seems it's happened to some. What needs to be determined, and why a paper would be good, is the risk of this happening and a definitive link to ensure causality and correlation aren't being mixed up.
In living with this, we constantly need to evaluate risk - there's a far cry between it happening to 50% of people vs .05%.
My own anecdotal evidence says we'll be grand, based on 6 people I know who had it ranging from their 50s to 80s. It's not of much use either though.

Hurrache

ixoy wrote: »

Yes it seems it's happened to some. What needs to be determined, and why a paper would be good, is the risk of this happening and a definitive link to ensure causality and correlation aren't being mixed up.

Absolutely. But with some there's just a denial, by choice, that it isn't happening, or are readily and willingly accepting that it's happening for different reasons.

I'm sure all the scans on patients with the virus in hospital that were studied showed the scarring and damage as each day passed when they had the virus, and how it continued on afterwards. So the sudden onset can't be blamed on pollution, who's effects certainly could lead to such damage being that bit easier.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Lol.



And a lol for you too.

Those findings are actually what happened, not a prediction. And I see you're throwing your strawman in "oh but everyone". You're the only one to use "everyone".

You guys are laughably predictable.

Its the pro lockdown supporters that are laughably predictable at this point.
Millions will die - 6 months later and less than 0.5m deaths.

You have posters coming onto this forum every day, almost delighted when they get a nice large number of cases from Texas or india or somewhere else in the world.

Then you have posters claiming that lots of people will have long term damage.

Endless scaremongering at this point. The reality is, the illness was nowhere near as bad as we first feared.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

Its the pro lockdown supporters that are laughably predictable at this point.
Millions will die - 6 months later and less than 0.5m deaths.

You have posters coming onto this forum every day, almost delighted when they get a nice large number of cases from Texas or india or somewhere else in the world.

Then you have posters claiming that lots of people will have long term damage.

Endless scaremongering at this point. The reality is, the illness was nowhere near as bad as we first feared.

If you can't understand that millions did not die because of the measures taken then there is no point in restating the bleedin obvious.

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If you can't understand that millions did not die because of the measures taken then there is no point in restating the bleedin obvious.

Why does everything have to be so black and white?

Its okay to accept that:
1: The lockdown absolutely reduced the amount of deaths
and
2: The initial predictions/models were utterly miles off regardless

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If you can't understand that millions did not die because of the measures taken then there is no point in restating the bleedin obvious.

There is no doubt we’d have some more deaths without lockdown.

Not in the millions though.

joeguevara

Deleted User wrote: »

Its the pro lockdown supporters that are laughably predictable at this point.
Millions will die - 6 months later and less than 0.5m deaths.

You have posters coming onto this forum every day, almost delighted when they get a nice large number of cases from Texas or india or somewhere else in the world.

Then you have posters claiming that lots of people will have long term damage.

Endless scaremongering at this point. The reality is, the illness was nowhere near as bad as we first feared.

Well there is 475k deaths with most countries on lockdown. So you think there would be only a slight increase without it?

MickeyLeari

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Economists are pretty much aligned on the damage that a lock down does which is disproportionate to the current risk.

Others, more generally, are fully appraised of the reality in respect to Unemployment, business failure, government borrowing, programme cut backs, wage reductions, mortgage defaults, mental health issues, and domestic abuse. That does not get into the broader health issues of the lockdown in terms of screening etc.

Just like many believe the risks to the virus are overblown, many economists believe that the long term economic risks are also overblown. The underlying fundamentals of the economy were sound prior to the virus, and taking the correct actions will result in a strong recovery. Historically, wars and pandemics have resulted in new opportunities, and we are very well positioned to take advantage of some of the potential opportunities, if we have the vision

Ginger n Lemon

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Ginger n Lemon’s posts in absolute bits in this thread. This has become such a bizarre little worm hole of a thread.

The vast vast majority of people I have come across in the real world appreciate the serious nature of this illness and the need for continued collective vigilance. The opinion protested the loudest on this thread is crank nonsense wholly unsupported by data.

Harsh.

Anyways the vast majority of people do not wear masks in Ireland. So i am not sure how is that "showing appreciation for serious nature of this illness". Unless you are in mask wearing club and thats the "vast vast majority" you interact with.

Latest survey suggested 6% uptake. Reality outside the window? 1% uptake.

What is bizarre is posting "long term effects of covid" fear mongering, when covid hasnt even been around for 3 months in vast majority of nations on the planet.

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

Its the pro lockdown supporters that are laughably predictable at this point.
Millions will die - 6 months later and less than 0.5m deaths.

You have posters coming onto this forum every day, almost delighted when they get a nice large number of cases from Texas or india or somewhere else in the world.

Then you have posters claiming that lots of people will have long term damage.

Endless scaremongering at this point. The reality is, the illness was nowhere near as bad as we first feared.

Another brilliant post. First part in bold is always blown out of proportion... we had a post here "Germany R number is 2.88, we need to monitor this closely" - meat plant infections 80% of that. What is there to monitor? We had 0 die from 1100 meat plant infections. 0.6% went to ICU..

And nobody wants to monitor Denmark (who were lifting restrictions in bloody April), Czech Republic, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium..... Countries that are much closer to our size and would actually make a meaningful comparison.

KrustyUCC

Game changer

England's 2m rule cut as pubs, hotels set to reopen

The social distancing rule will be cut from 2 metres to "1 metre plus" in England from 4 July, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed in a move to help the hospitality sector reopen.

Under new changes announced by Mr Johnson indoor gatherings involving two separate households will be permitted - including the possibility of visiting reopened pubs and restaurants - but social distancing will need to be maintained.

The two-metre rule will be eased, replaced with a "one-metre plus" measure, with the protection offered by the physical distance enhanced by other mitigation measures such as the use of face coverings, increased hygiene or layout changes in premises.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0623/1149097-uk-coronavirus/

I presume the North will more than likely follow suit

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Another brilliant post. First part in bold is always blown out of proportion... we had a post here "Germany R number is 2.88, we need to monitor this closely" - meat plant infections 80% of that. What is there to monitor? We had 0 die from 1100 meat plant infections. 0.6% went to ICU..

And nobody wants to monitor Denmark (who were lifting restrictions in bloody April), Czech Republic, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium..... Countries that are much closer to our size and would actually make a meaningful comparison.

I wonder what all those countries did to bring their numbers low? Anyone?

average_runner

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Game changer

England's 2m rule cut as pubs, hotels set to reopen

The social distancing rule will be cut from 2 metres to "1 metre plus" in England from 4 July, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed in a move to help the hospitality sector reopen.

Under new changes announced by Mr Johnson indoor gatherings involving two separate households will be permitted - including the possibility of visiting reopened pubs and restaurants - but social distancing will need to be maintained.

The two-metre rule will be eased, replaced with a "one-metre plus" measure, with the protection offered by the physical distance enhanced by other mitigation measures such as the use of face coverings, increased hygiene or layout changes in premises.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0623/1149097-uk-coronavirus/

I presume the North will more than likely follow suit

UK has managed it well so far like. They still don't have an idea how many cases were or is in their country

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder what all those countries did to bring their numbers low? Anyone?

Well Belgium has highest death rate in Europe.

I dont even know what more to say?

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well Belgium has highest death rate in Europe.

I dont even know what more to say?

Failed at containment, succeeded at suppression

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Its the pro lockdown supporters that are laughably predictable at this point.

Are you a child? 'Pro lockdown supporters' ?

It's the internet equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears. Sad, but funny.

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

Failed at containment, succeeded at suppression

I am not sure if "succeeded" term can be used at all when discussing the highest EU country for death rates with covid.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Are you a child? 'Pro lockdown supporters' ?

It's the internet equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears. Sad, but funny.

Its folks who have tied their persona on here to being anti something. If you disagree with them on anything you are automatically the complete opposite, irrespective of your broader positions.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am not sure if "succeeded" term can be used at all when discussing the highest EU country for death rates with covid.

No room for nuance in your views whatsoever have you? It is possible to have performed poorly early but be performing well now, they are not mutually exclusive. And you can question why failures happened while still celebrating the successes

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Are you a child? 'Pro lockdown supporters' ?

It's the internet equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears. Sad, but funny.

Are you getting frustrated that people here aren’t eating up your scaremongering?

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you getting frustrated that people here aren’t eating up your scaremongering?

Disagree = scaremongering - ye are ridiculous at this stage lads

Ginger n Lemon

On a more serious note, below is very very worrying (it is not an estimate, it is factual data btw)

"Covid-19 welfare payment numbers fall but huge number still need Government support

However, areas where the return to work got underway a few weeks ago, including construction, continue to have a large number of employees availing of the payment.

There were 39,700 construction employees receiving a payment last week, down from 45,500 from a week earlier.

The number of wholesale and retail workers needing the payment fell by 9,600 in the week, as shops started to reopen, but the total number of retail workers on the scheme remains at an elevated level, at 63,600.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/covid-19-welfare-payment-numbers-fall-but-huge-number-still-need-government-support-1006764.html

Construction sites re opened 18th of May. We are now 23rd of June and still 40k construction workers receive 350 a week?? surely should be all back working?