Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:10PM

growleaves wrote: »

Italy locked down on March 9th, including full quarantine and shuttering of non-essential businesses.

In Ireland most things were closed down by March 20th. Official lockdown began March 23rd.

So we are 11-14 days behind in terms of restrictions. On that calculus we should be implementing Phase 4/5 in around ten days time.

On our current timetable we might enter Phase 2, hopefully, in five days time - if we meet the criteria. Bearing mind the criteria is not defined or, if it is defined, its a secret. Lol

Italy’s lockdown was completely different to ours. They were not allowed to leave their houses for most of the time apart from medical and food supplies. They didn’t have the freedom to exercise for 2km as we did. I’m not sure about them closing boarders but Italy’s lockdown was far more severe than ours.

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:11PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well, given that you can get pints in Italy today, there is 8 weeks and 5 days to go until 10th of August.

There is no way we were bloody 2 months and 5 days behind Italy.

That NPHET and those incompetent journalism dropouts calling themselves health minister for health need to either get real or get out.

My post above was meant to be in response to this.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-06-2020 06:13PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Italy’s lockdown was completely different to ours. They were not allowed to leave their houses for most of the time apart from medical and food supplies. They didn’t have the freedom to exercise for 2km as we did. I’m not sure about them closing boarders but Italy’s lockdown was far more severe than ours.

You are right. Italy never shut down its construction industry. Their lockdown was much different to ours.

"Different countries and regions have taken different approaches to the issue. Italy, which is under a strict lockdown, says employees including builders can continue to go to work if their jobs cannot be done at home."

growleaves · 03-06-2020 06:14PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Italy’s lockdown was completely different to ours. They were not allowed to leave their houses for most of the time apart from medical and food supplies. They didn’t have the freedom to exercise for 2km as we did. I’m not sure about them closing boarders but Italy’s lockdown was far more severe than ours.

Therefore what?

Do you think our exit should be prolonged because of that? That is perhaps a reasonable position to take if one believes in the efficacy of lockdowns.

I would just point out that while Spain and Italy had very extreme lockdowns some other countries, like France, were more lax in practice. The French exchequer made millions of euros from fines because French people would not stay within the 100km travel limit.

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:14PM

Lyle wrote: »

Just for clarity on this, we have staff for 384 beds total.

There's currently 36 Covid cases (June 2nd) along with 229 other people in ICU for non-Covid ailments.

We have 117 empty beds, so 30.4% empty, not 90%.

I say they’ll need to keep beds empty too for people when more restrictions lift. I think the lack of investment and organisation in our public healthcare system for years will mean it will be more difficult to manage any type of surge here. This isn’t in relation to frontline workers, they are fantastic. It’s more the overall organisation, management and policies of healthcare.

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:15PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are right. Italy never shut down its construction industry. Their lockdown was much different to ours.

"Different countries and regions have taken different approaches to the issue. Italy, which is under a strict lockdown, says employees including builders can continue to go to work if their jobs cannot be done at home."

Yes this is also true

Lyle · 03-06-2020 06:17PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Do you have a link for that?

60% ICU occupancy on a normal day doesnt sounds right.

Hopefully this works, it's on page 9:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid19-daily-operations-update-2000-2-june-2020.pdf

If not go here:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

And there's a drop-down for Daily Operations Updates, just click the top one.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-06-2020 06:18PM

growleaves wrote: »

Therefore what?

Do you think our exit should be prolonged because of that? That is perhaps a reasonable position to take if one believes in the efficacy of lockdowns.

I would just point out that while Spain and Italy had very extreme lockdowns some other countries, like France, were more lax in practice. The French exchequer made millions of euros from fines because French people would not stay within the 100km travel limit.

Trying to justify 5 months effective lockdown for pubs, gyms, cinemas etc. for a country that did not have the worst covid outbreak in Europe, is a bit like trying to prove Arsene Wengers last 10 years at Arsenal were "success" because they won FA cups multiple times.

:rolleyes:

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:19PM

growleaves wrote: »

Therefore what?

Do you think our exit should be prolonged because of that? That is perhaps a reasonable position to take if one believes in the efficacy of lockdowns.

I would just point out that while Spain and Italy had very extreme lockdowns some other countries, like France, were more lax in practice. The French exchequer made millions of euros from fines because French people would not stay within the 100km travel limit.

No, i feel the country will be mostly open up by end of June with restrictions on travel limits also lifted to boost the tourism industry. Did France not close their borders or have restrictions on who could enter the country? IMO it really comes down to a countries ability to run its healthcare service safely is what determines how quickly a country can open up.

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:20PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Trying to justify 5 months effective lockdown for pubs, gyms, cinemas etc. for a country that did not have the worst covid outbreak in Europe, is a bit like trying to prove Arsene Wengers last 10 years at Arsenal were "success" because they won FA cups multiple times.

:rolleyes:

Pubs won’t be closed until August. I would place bets they will be open on second week in July or many serving foods as restaurants on the 29th June.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-06-2020 06:20PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

No, i feel the country will be mostly open up by end of June with restrictions on travel limits also lifted to boost the tourism industry. Did France not close their borders or have restrictions on who could enter the country? IMO it really comes down to a countries ability to run its healthcare service safely is what determines how quickly a country can open up.

But then our healthcare system must be worst in Europe if we are last to open?

Imagine how bad it will get when budget cuts are announced in Octobers budget.

Feels like we are in no win no win situation there if we base it on our healthcare ability.

Ginger n Lemon · 03-06-2020 06:22PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Pubs won’t be closed until August. I would place bets they will be open on second week in July or many serving foods as restaurants on the 29th June.

2nd week of July is like 5 weeks away :S and that will mean 4 months effective lockdown for pubs.

But tbh, Id take that rather than 10th of August. Id say a lot of pubs will reopen 29th of June a bit like that lad in Clonmel opening up. :pac:

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:24PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But then our healthcare system must be worst in Europe if we are last to open?

Imagine how bad it will get when budget cuts are announced in Octobers budget.

Feels like we are in no win no win situation there if we base it on our healthcare ability.

Personally I think if travel was restricted earlier ie. no one flying to and from northern Italy at the start, we would have had way less cases to deal with. I thought I saw an article that stated 10,000 frontline workers are on the Covid Illness payment, that’s a huge proportion in relation to other countries.

MickeyLeari · 03-06-2020 06:24PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0603/1145247-coronavirus-ireland-figures/

“Dr Holohan said there was nothing in the data so far to suggest NPHET won't be able to recommend moving to Phase Two of the road map of easing virus restrictions.

He added however that the third week of each stage is the crucial one and it is important to wait until the end of this week before making a decision.”

Code - we will move to stage 2 but the next stage will still be 3 weeks away.

“There have now been 1,048 cases in meat plants around the country - an increase of 123 over the past week.”

So basically a good chunk of the new cases over the last week are coming from the meat plant testing which is part of targeted control measures.

frillyleaf · 03-06-2020 06:26PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

2nd week of July is like 5 weeks away :S and that will mean 4 months effective lockdown for pubs.

But tbh, Id take that rather than 10th of August. Id say a lot of pubs will reopen 29th of June a bit like that lad in Clonmel opening up. :pac:

Lots of pubs will open under a restaurant licence. Good for them If they do. They are probably getting ready for that date now!

stephenjmcd · 03-06-2020 06:31PM

Chief executive of Irish travel agents union wants Government and Department of Foreign Affairs to issue an official instruction to people not to undertake non-essential travel while at the same time getting rid of the 14 day quarantine rule.... does he see the issue there with that ??

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0603/1145202-travel-coronavirus/

stephenjmcd · 03-06-2020 06:33PM

On the 14 day recommendation as per rte. Simon Covney I've always thought was more capable than Leo but he does know that Spain will be getting rid of the 14 day quarantine.

"Fianna Fáil's Robert Troy asked if it was "right and proper" for Ireland to introduce a 14-day quarantine for travellers to Ireland when a lot of European Union nations are at the point of "opening up."

The minister said that everyone coming into this country is being asked to self-isolate for 14 days, Spain does the same today and that "people should deal with the facts."

The Tánaiste was frustrated at the short time left for him to answer questions during the Dáil session.

Mr Coveney said "this is a nonsense" when asked repeatedly by acting Leas-Cheann Comhairle Catherine Connolly to stop speaking as he had run out of time."

MickeyLeari · 03-06-2020 06:38PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mr Coveney said "this is a nonsense"/quote]

Indeed he is right.

uli84 · 03-06-2020 06:53PM

I posed a question to HSE how the retina eye check that specsavers is doing at the moment is different from retina eye check for diabetic people on national screening initiative but I’m yet to hear a reasonable answer...

03-06-2020 06:55PM

Tony is actually really bullying the hell out of Leo and the government. Every time Leo says something positive, Tony then comes out and contradicts him.

You can tell from his conferences that he is starting to grow more confident with the power he has.

fleet_admiral · 03-06-2020 07:00PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Pubs won’t be closed until August. I would place bets they will be open on second week in July or many serving foods as restaurants on the 29th June.

Lots of discussion going on behind the scenes with the LVA and VFI. Early July is looking increasingly likely although late June hasn't been ruled out. Don't ask for links as there aren't any available, these are discussions.

road_high · 03-06-2020 07:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Tony is actually really bullying the hell out of Leo and the government. Every time Leo says something positive, Tony then comes out and contradicts him.

You can tell from his conferences that he is starting to grow more confident with the power he has.

Well that just shows how weak Varadkar is. Any of our previous taoisigh would have put this pen pusher back in his box weeks ago. Varadkar is just about mediocre when all is going well. Rudderless when real hard work and decisiveness is needed

nickkinneg · 03-06-2020 07:17PM

Just reported that the R rate in Berlin has risen back up to 1.95

Tenzor07 · 03-06-2020 07:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Tony is actually really bullying the hell out of Leo and the government. Every time Leo says something positive, Tony then comes out and contradicts him.
You can tell from his conferences that he is starting to grow more confident with the power he has.

No "Bullying" going on, Holohan and the HSE are doing what the caretaker government asked them to do 3 months or so ago.

What we don't have in this country is leadership!

Why we have to look at the daily HSE live briefings at this stage of the pandemic is ridiculous.

Now is the time for Politicians not the HSE to take the lead, and work on the Economy. None of them have stepped up to do this.

The health service needs to be restarted now for all other treatments.

03-06-2020 07:26PM

nickkinneg wrote: »

Just reported that the R rate in Berlin has risen back up to 1.95

Talked about multiple times. Based on 47 cases here today our R0 could be 4.7. Germany updates its R0 calculations daily. What’s the 7 day average for Berlin. Far too much taking a single data point and treating it as a trend going on in all threads

Naos · 03-06-2020 07:28PM

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Lots of discussion going on behind the scenes with the LVA and VFI. Early July is looking increasingly likely although late June hasn't been ruled out. Don't ask for links as there aren't any available, these are discussions.

I know you're in the trade, so when you say discussions, what type of discussions are we talking here?

Normal pubs potentially opening in July?

road_high · 03-06-2020 07:33PM

Another chain done with this lockdown rubbish and reopening - https://blog.lifestylesports.com/lifestylesports-store-reopening-times-information/?_bta_tid=40902752455476435262770569534687187428436621656865459494266006493406850622548984990340652460214919469577

I take it almost all retail stores are going with next week for reopening? What defines a “small retail store”? Many will just reduce floor area to comply etc and more power to them

CalamariFritti · 03-06-2020 07:37PM

nickkinneg wrote: »

Just reported that the R rate in Berlin has risen back up to 1.95

1.32 not 1.95. And yes thats over 1 for 3 days in a row. But there are 3 indicators that they use in Berlin. R value is currently on red the other two are still on green so nothing will change for now.

What is also being reported is that when the overall numbers get real low you get mad swings on the R value. Was for two days over 1 last week also then went back to below.

road_high · 03-06-2020 07:46PM

road_high wrote: »

Another chain done with this lockdown rubbish and reopening - https://blog.lifestylesports.com/lifestylesports-store-reopening-times-information/?_bta_tid=40902752455476435262770569534687187428436621656865459494266006493406850622548984990340652460214919469577

I take it almost all retail stores are going with next week for reopening? What defines a “small retail store”? Many will just reduce floor area to comply etc and more power to them

I’d say once one or two start the rest will follow like an avalanche as they won’t want to miss out on any business. I expect a fairly big spending surge the first few weeks. Bit like how they all open on St Stephens day.

stephenjmcd · 03-06-2020 07:47PM

road_high wrote: »

Another chain done with this lockdown rubbish and reopening - https://blog.lifestylesports.com/lifestylesports-store-reopening-times-information/?_bta_tid=40902752455476435262770569534687187428436621656865459494266006493406850622548984990340652460214919469577

I take it almost all retail stores are going with next week for reopening? What defines a “small retail store”? Many will just reduce floor area to comply etc and more power to them

Small retail store lifestyle is not, fair play to them looking to get back up and running. So long as businesses put measures in place let them open

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings