Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

is_that_so wrote: »

It's only 5 working days to phase 2, let it finish. For all the challenges in this pandemic getting out of it seems to be turning into the biggest one of all.

Why, Europe is proving that we can move quicker. The evidence is now there so I believe Phase 2 on Monday and Phase 3 by 15th of June and fully open end of June the latest.


Kids are all out playing now and I won't tell them to stop. Now they are keeping their distance but the parents are agreeing to relax it to 1 meter from today

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

"Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread."

is_that_so wrote: »

It's only 5 working days to phase 2, let it finish. For all the challenges in this pandemic getting out of it seems to be turning into the biggest one of all.

Totally agree. If things are going well shorten the time between phases, but we are practically at phase 2.

A lot of people here seem to be ruling out a spike or second wave. But it is clearly possible look at south Korea, they have had to re-implement lockdown measures in Seoul for at least two more weeks after the biggest spike in infections in two months.

Nermal wrote: »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

"Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread."

I would rather not click on that conservative rag...the fact Dominic Cummings wife is an editor should tell you all you need to know about their agenda.

Reality is always hitting hardest in the morningtime

"The Republic’s economy is on track to shrink by 12.4 per cent this year, marking the largest annual slump in its history, as the Covid-19 pandemic wreaks havoc on households, firms and government finances, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Firish-economy-to-contract-by-12-esri-forecasts-1.4264165

I am not going to be a fool and say thats all caused by pandemic lol. Half of the slump is caused by awful incompetent government who have made a lot of wrong decisions and persist on making this a 5 month lockdown vs 2 months lockdowns in other Eu countries. In comparison - Denmarks GDP set to fall 5.4%, thats your casual 7% DIFFERENCE IN GDP FALL.

One country has opened primary schools on 14th of April, barbers 21st of April, rest of stuff mid May fully opened bar large public gatherings.

The other called Denmark "experimenting with children", cancelled final year exams (are we the only country on the planet to do this?) closed construction that is outdoor work where infection does not spread meaningfully at all, imposed 5 month effective lockdown for pubs, cinemas, gyms, barbers, crashed economy to -12.4% GDP.

Lets take this article as a reminder that no, not every country is screwed cus of pandemic, some are screwed 2 - 2.5 times worse than other because of incompetence of the government in place.

gmisk wrote: »

I would rather not click on that conservative rag...the fact Dominic Cummings wife is an editor should tell you all you need to know about their agenda.

Play the ball, not the man. Read it in Norwegian if you prefer.

https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/notat-om-risiko-og-respons-2020-05-05.pdf

seamus wrote: »

Hopefully yesterday's numbers were just a blip; a small cluster of cases or something. It's seems unlikely to be anything but, as there's no real correlation with anything. Cases are still under 100 anyway.

I do think Tony Holohan is playing the safe game because you can't make mistakes if you don't take risks.

I expect them to bring forward quite a few of the measures from phase 3 into phase 2 and then plan to shorten phase 2, to maybe two weeks. As I've said many times through this, people will just do whatever they think is the right thing to do regardless of the guidelines. So the Government's response needs to be broadly tracking the public expectations or people will just go right off the reservation.

They changed the reporting time for cases starting yesterday so wouldn't read too much into it. What we get this evening will be 24hrs up to midnight just gone.

What we got on Wednesday was only for a 13hr period so it's not a big amount taking into account the change in reporting.

Likewise the reporting of 17 deaths is shocking as a headline but read into it and 7 go back as far as March.

The people moved ahead of the government in shutting down, its clear they're moving ahead of them in opening up. Personally I've said it here a few times, move a few things into phase 2, merge 3&4 together and then bring 5 forward into July.

alta stare wrote: »

If he cant handle the pressure then he needs to be moved on.

LOL, he's been doing it perfectly for weeks during the worse global pandemic in recent history, even returning a day or two after falling ill.

It's cracked to suggest that he's about to break under political pressure stemming from the will of the people riding atop the turning tide.

People now turning their frustration, people who apparently know better by the way, on a public servant because they can get no leeway with members of government. I wonder who it will be next?

seamus wrote: »

Hopefully yesterday's numbers were just a blip; a small cluster of cases or something. It's seems unlikely to be anything but, as there's no real correlation with anything. Cases are still under 100 anyway.

deaths going back to 21st march according to news this morning didnt see the breakdown

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very good article, from Norway, health department

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’

That is an astonishing admission. I wonder will we ever achieve a similar level of candour here.

That's because cancer isn't highly infectious

mikekerry wrote: »

what gets me is why the news reports have on their main headline every day the number of people that have died from covid as well as no of new new infections it's just scaring people. if they did this with e.g. cancer it would also scare people.
can you imagine the news headlines every day x people have cancer and x new cases, x people have covid and x new cases.
are they going to continue doing this for as long as it's around?

prunudo wrote: »

Big change in the narrative the last couple days, much more talk on the radio and social media about opening up quicker. It seems people are coming around to what has been said on this thread the last 3 weeks.
Even had a mate acknowledge that enough is enough after hearing it on the radio this morning albeit he still maintains Leo and the lads are doing a great job.

Three weeks ago we were pretty high in the numbers, now its dropping below a 100, we need to move things on. If it goes up we can step back again.

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don't understand the way you and some other posters dismiss any horror stories related to the virus as fearmongering yet are willing to lap up every single economic horror story. Can economists not get things wrong as well or is that just scientists?

They aren't all economic horror stories.

• Cancer patients missing treatment.
• Myriad other illnesses going untreated.
• Isolated elderly breaking bones because they can't get exercise and physiotherapy.
• People not being able to see family and loved ones.
• Mental health issues, including suicide. This will continue long-term with economic effects.

I am not in any of these categories. I just want to be free, and I don't apologise for it. I absolutely hate the fact of being tethered and living in an open prison. This is not a whimsical feeling: it is the very basis for civilised democratic society.

But please don't tell us there are no horror stories beyond covid and the economy.

AdamD wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-should-take-calculated-risk-in-greater-easing-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4264649

Pressure certainly building to ease restrictions. Hopefully hear more on June 5th

O'Callaghan will be part of the government, maybe as soon as next week! Any changes will not come at a day's notice. We can expect any alterations announced at 1-2 weeks distance.