Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Beasty

Part I
Part II

All warnings and threadbans carry over

Mod warning added 09/05/20

Beasty wrote: »

It looks like tensions in this thread have been rising

Some general warnings to all:

Remain civil. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Just because it's the polar opposite of your own does not invalidate it. Anyone who is uncivil towards other users can expect a minimum of a threadban.

Keep to the topic

Do not present "opinion" as "fact"

Do not believe all stats that are spouted. Usually figures presented in any official way are not only checked for inaccuracies, but will also have caveats and/or explanations of what was done to derive any conclusions reached. Stats though are not "facts" beyond the sample they represent. They can be used to draw conclusions over wider populations, but those conclusions are always subject to a margin of error

If you throw up an example please explain what point you are making. For example "Look at Sweden" means nothing unless you say what you are looking at in connection with Sweden. Is it restrictions, is it deaths, is it infections?

Warning added 27/05/20

Beasty wrote: »

Another reminder - this thread is about restrictions and their relaxation

General Covid discussion belongs in the current Covid thread (#XVII)

Political discussion belongs in Current Affairs or Politics

Threadbans:
housemouse
Plumbthedepths
Cupatae
CtevenSrowder
Unelected CMO
Risteard81
trapp
RugbyLad11
normanoffside
Jimmy Garlic
alwald - lifted 16/05/20
Jinglejangle69
easypazz
snowcat
Spanish Eyes
ziggyman17
ShineOn7
JoeExotic81
The_Dazzler
lawrencesummers
LiquidZeb

FintanMcluskey

Open up the pubs.
Yahoo

McDermotX

Thought everything was full steam ahead already given what it was like out earlier ?

Must have missed the news.

Beasty

oops! Apologies - locked the wrong one

growleaves

Did anyone here follow daily death totals, new cases, ICU capacity etc. during the Swine Flu epidemic (upper estimate of deaths 575,400)?

If you did, did you constantly warn people that we could have a second wave of Swine Flu comparable to the second wave of the Spanish flu of 1918?

Did you ask people 'How many people are you prepared to let die from Swine Flu?' Did we have better ICU facilities then or what? Were we marble-hearted villains indifferent to bodies piling up around us, only thinking about ourselves? I genuinely can't even remember.

Ginger n Lemon

Oh wow, i thought i was banned. I couldnt reply to any of previous thread posts for like 3 pages (doing catch up).

Phew.

So, speaking of lifting restrictions, below is from Tony, published today. If he thinks we have done well/better than others, surely we should lift restrictions and get back to normal life at same speed or quicker than others? I thought the purpose was to weather the storm and then open up quickly?

"
Dr Holohan said Ireland has done as well if not better than other countries in western Europe. He said many of those countries have not been able to suppress the virus across the community in the way we have."

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0508/1137180-coronavirus-ireland/

prunudo

"Dickie 10

so do people think we could be pushed back another 2 weeks of this on may 18th?"

Just carrying this over from the old thread. Yes, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they decided to extend another week or 2 depending how they feel the numbers are going. We're already getting the sound bites, similar in the lead up to May 5th.
But this time I think there would be large scale disobedience, a lot of people I've talked to are gearing up to start back on the 18th regardless of what the government say, they can't take lack of income anymore.

Ginger n Lemon

Was out and about today. Walking past Broombridge bridge, 12 lads standing together, drinking, laughing. No social distancing in sight.

And then it hit me. It literally looked like an outdoor pub. They even had their own music, all looked to be 40 + and I thought that even when pubs re open, will people really bother going there if they have to be socially awkward? The atmosphere will be gone. If they sit close to each other or other people - they might get a stink eye from the waiter/ress etc etc or even reprimanded.

Point i am making is the longer businesses are not operating, the more consumers find other ways of replacing services/whatever they were getting from those businesses. So if restrictions arent lifted ahead of time, and some places open up in August, not a fact that they ll be able to even fill 50% of their allowed capacity?

I hate to say it but we gotta open up fast? Otherwise we ll have a society of drink at home, stay at home, netflix, junk cheap food from supermarket? Could have serious effect on the demographics

Galwayguy35

We were called in for a meeting today to be told half the employees were going to lose their jobs, there are a lot of good friends and colleagues of mine facing an uncertain future this evening.

Unfortunately we will see a lot more of this around the country as the Government is just turning a blind eye to the economic impact of this extended lockdown.

Ginger n Lemon

prunudo wrote: »

"Dickie 10

so do people think we could be pushed back another 2 weeks of this on may 18th?"

Just carrying this over from the old thread. Yes, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if they decided to extend another week or 2 depending how they feel the numbers are going. We're already getting the sound bites, similar in the lead up to May 5th.
But this time I think there would be large scale disobedience, a lot of people I've talked to are gearing up to start back on the 18th regardless of what the government say, they can't take lack of income anymore.

That would be outrageous. I would go to merrion st (and i have essential worker letter) and start either my hunger strike or some sort of protest. I would leave a big rant here, probably get banned in the process. just joking, i contribute greatly here.

Below is another quote from Tony. There is a problem with this, most businesses operate on small margins, when you start reducing their capacity to operate by 50%, that 1 slap in the face. But now there are agencies out there that offer "Covid monitor" services. An individual who will come in and do the social distancing/governments guidance. I genuinely struggle to see anyone wanting to open up their own hospitality/consumer facing business.....

"
Dr Holohan said the NPHET has a job to do - to give the public advice and wants to ensure that each sector puts in place their own plans to deliver services in line with that advice."

Ginger n Lemon

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

We were called in for a meeting today to be told half the employees were going to lose their jobs, there are a lot of good friends and colleagues of mine facing an uncertain future this evening.

Unfortunately we will see a lot more of this around the country as the Government is just turning a blind eye to the economic impact of this extended lockdown.

Very sorry to hear :mad::mad::mad:

Without giving much details is it a multinational company?

This is absolutely heart breaking. and it is quite clear that whatever business support government is offering, is simply not working. The whole "we ll give you interest free or low interest loan" is just not attractive.

someone from FG or FF surely must read this?

macnug

Like a normal summers Friday evening out there with kids playing etc. Getting very hard to convince the kids to stay in now. Cars out everywhere lockdown is faltering imo.

LessOutragePlz

Like lots of people have said from the beginning of the lockdown it's our choice to be on lockdown. I was out earlier today and from what I saw a lot more people are choosing not to lockdown. There isn't enough gardai out there to stop everyone either.

FintanMcluskey

macnug wrote: »

Like a normal summers Friday evening out there with kids playing etc. Getting very hard to convince the kids to stay in now. Cars out everywhere lockdown is faltering imo.

I can't see for the life of me how imprisoning people for the best weather in years is for the health benefit if the nation

stephenjmcd

macnug wrote: »

Like a normal summers Friday evening out there with kids playing etc. Getting very hard to convince the kids to stay in now. Cars out everywhere lockdown is faltering imo.

It's been like that for the last week. More shops reopening in my area also.

The people moved to implement their own precautions before advised and the CMO said they didn't want to see the same happen with reopening. Sorry too late for that. For most businesses its reopen in some way now or possibly never reopen.

They can keep saying compliance is high as much as they want but its absolutely nowhere near what it was

growleaves

amadangomor

We really are a whinging generation.

Can you imagine say when London was getting bombed during the Blitz that people would complain about having to go to shelters, children getting evacuated and men having to go off to war to fight the evils of nazism. Nah, they had a fecking backbone and did what was needed.

Here some of our population are whining and moaning endlessly about having to sit home and watch TV. Which is all we have to do to stop the biggest crisis facing our generation.

Really sad!

Beasty

growleaves wrote: »

Did anyone here follow daily death totals, new cases, ICU capacity etc. during the Swine Flu epidemic (upper estimate of deaths 575,400)?

If you did, did you constantly warn people that we could have a second wave of Swine Flu comparable to the second wave of the Spanish flu of 1918?

I don't think there was anywhere near the attention given to Swine Flu as this one is getting

I have little doubt the ability to collate and share data is much more straightforward than it was even back in 2009. The way this whole topic has evolved is different to anything I've seen in my near 60 years.

The other think about any flu is the vaccine technology is there. This was "novel" in a few ways. I actually remember SARS more vividly than Swine Flu, and in particular how unusual it was to see Asians walking round with face masks. That virus never took hold in the West though

gozunda

macnug wrote: »

Like a normal summers Friday evening out there with kids playing etc. Getting very hard to convince the kids to stay in now. Cars out everywhere lockdown is faltering imo.

Kids generally need parental direction. If that is absent...

amadangomor

gozunda wrote: »

Kids generally need parental direction. If that is absent...

Yep, some of the sons friends were out on the green playing and called for him. His mother said not just yet to them.

helimachoptor

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

We were called in for a meeting today to be told half the employees were going to lose their jobs, there are a lot of good friends and colleagues of mine facing an uncertain future this evening.

Unfortunately we will see a lot more of this around the country as the Government is just turning a blind eye to the economic impact of this extended lockdown.

Happened in my company wednesday.
We'd already furloughed our UK staff since April 1st. Everyone else on a 3 day week.
Then a chunk of Irish staff moved onto the wage subsidy this week (furlough)

We've all but turned the lights off, 60% of staff are not working.
If the company does survive its likely be significantly trimmed down but tbh its probably 50/50 at the moment.

Galwayguy35

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very sorry to hear :mad::mad::mad:

Without giving much details is it a multinational company?

This is absolutely heart breaking. and it is quite clear that whatever business support government is offering, is simply not working. The whole "we ll give you interest free or low interest loan" is just not attractive.

someone from FG or FF surely must read this?

No not a multinational.

It's frightening to think how many businesses may be gone by the end of the year.

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Oh wow, i thought i was banned. I couldnt reply to any of previous thread posts for like 3 pages (doing catch up).

Phew.

Same!

amadangomor

growleaves wrote: »

These American extremists/simpletons are a good moral compass i.e. do the opposite of what these lunatics do

growleaves

amadangomor wrote: »

We really are a whinging generation.

Can you imagine say when London was getting bombed during the Blitz that people would complain about having to go to shelters, children getting evacuated and men having to go off to war to fight the evils of nazism. Nah, they had a fecking backbone and did what was needed.

Here some of our population are whining and moaning endlessly about having to sit home and watch TV. Which is all we have to do to stop the biggest crisis facing our generation.

Really sad!

Londoners only went into shelters during bombing raids then they came out again. Throughout the 39-45 war, including during the London Blitz bombings, they kept open schools and universities, examinations, arts (theatre, opera, music, dance), museums, book shops, scientific research, live sports etc.

A grown man who wanted to confine people in shelters indefinitely in order to "save lives" would not have been listened to in the 1940s, you can be certain of that.

growleaves

amadangomor wrote: »

These American extremists/simpletons are a good moral compass i.e. do the opposite of what these lunatics do

You must not have watched the video through. It covers protests in Stuttgart, Munich and Berlin - not just California, Maine etc.

normanoffside

Just Posting this again because I think it's important

I can see why schools aren't opening, seems like a deadly virus among children and working age adults :rolleyes:

Imagine what the death rates would actually be like if they actually captured all the positives? Since they are only testing the vulnerable, Health care workers and those that present seriously ill in hospital.

I can only assume those under 20 tested were contact traced etc.

On a conservative guess that 1 in 10 of actual cases have been detected (probably more like 1 in 40/50 in reality) even for the 55-65 y/o group the virus has a mortality rate of 55 from 30,000

That's a mortality rate of 0.18% amongst 55-65 Year olds.

If you take the figure on face value and assume that every single 55-65 year old who has had the disease has been tested, then the mortality rate for that age group is still only 1.8%

helimachoptor

growleaves wrote: »

Londoners only went into shelters during bombing raids then they came out again. Throughout the 39-45 war, including during the London Blitz bombings, they kept open schools and universities, examinations, arts (theatre, opera, music, dance), museums, book shops, scientific research, live sports etc.

A grown man who wanted to confine people in shelters indefinitely in order to "save lives" would not have been listened to in the 1940s, you can be certain of that.

That ability to incite fear has never been higher, always on access to news (even if its wrong). The requirement on the vast majority of news sources to be first rather than right its a huge issue.

Then you've got the spread of every type of "expert" and when you dig into it, the guy/girl did a semester of biology/physics etc but they're message/agenda has been picked up by sheep/tin foil hat brigade and retweeted to be mainstream.

And also.. no one wants to be labelled the guy that did nothing. Look at how weather warnings have become such big things the last 2/3 years.
5-10 years ago, if there was a storm you'll be told as much and expected to use good judgement to stay in the doors and not going chainsawing stuff while its still blowing 100kph.


Now, parks close, buses shut down early etc all because people are too stupid to use their own common sense. And the people giving this information out don't want to be sued so we go into lockdown. Yellow weather warning closes the parks around me, even though on the walking paths there's no trees so even if one fell over it wouldn't hit you.

gozunda

Beasty wrote: »

I don't think there was anywhere near the attention given to Swine Flu as this one is getting

I have little doubt the ability to collate and share data is much more straightforward than it was even back in 2009. The way this whole topic has evolved is different to anything I've seen in my near 60 years.

The other think about any flu is the vaccine technology is there. This was "novel" in a few ways. I actually remember SARS more vividly than Swine Flu, and in particular how unusual it was to see Asians walking round with face masks. That virus never took hold in the West though

I think that is at least partially - why the likes of South Korea, Taiwan and other countries who had experienced Swine Flu and SARS from the very beginning took this outbreak much more seriously than we did here. And it has to be said they have greatly benefitted from this.

I remember some of comments in the original Covid Thread which not only claimed there was no issue, but that it could never come here, then that we would only get a handful of cases and so on - to the point where apparently we still have complete denial of the damage that the disease can pose to the society as whole.

iamwhoiam

macnug wrote: »

Like a normal summers Friday evening out there with kids playing etc. Getting very hard to convince the kids to stay in now. Cars out everywhere lockdown is faltering imo.

From the beginning Leo said a lockdown could not be in place too soon as it cannot last long and if implemented too soon it wouldn’t last to get over the peak
They absolutely know that the lockdown starts to collapse after a certain lenght of time and we have reached that point now.
They knew all along that four or five weeks was the max that it would be adhered to and I am sure that they dragged it out these two weeks knowing well it would slowly collapse

growleaves

I actually remember SARS more vividly than Swine Flu, and in particular how unusual it was to see Asians walking round with face masks. That virus never took hold in the West though

I remember SARS as well due to the media attention it received.

I got a flu vaccine during the year of Swine Flu (maybe the vaccine was for normal strains of influenza?) as there was a muted sense of there being some danger in the background.

The last thing close to a panic I remember was when the Iraqi army invaded Kuwait City in 1990. This was before Saddam Huessin was considered a joke - people were genuinely scared of what he would/could do but its forgotten now. It was thought he would bomb Europe with missiles and I remember RTE panelists (seriously) discussing the possibility of Ireland being bombed. Genuine worry and fear in the air but nothing like as bad as covid.

Ginger n Lemon

amadangomor wrote: »

These American extremists/simpletons are a good moral compass i.e. do the opposite of what these lunatics do

People want to live their lives and you call them lunatics?

If restrictions arent going to be lifted in this country AHEAD of schedule, I see good few lunatics taking to the streets going to the government buildings. This will upset good 50% of the posters here as that is as opposite to a lockdown as it can get.

And they ll be right to do so. How long do you expect people will tolerate being told that their job is lost? that half of workforce is being let go?

You have grown men who have worked for 10, 15, 20 years are now being told "government is shutting us down" "we are very sorry"

snowcat

iamwhoiam wrote: »

From the beginning Leo said a lockdown could not be in place too soon as it cannot last long and if implemented too soon it wouldn’t last to get over the peak
They absolutely know that the lockdown starts to collapse after a certain lenght of time and we have reached that point now.
They knew all along that four or five weeks was the max that it would be adhered to and I am sure that they dragged it out these two weeks knowing well it would slowly collapse

There is a certain logic to that policy. Loosen the lockdown gradually and see what happens but blame the people if cases rise.

rob316

A lockdown is only as good as its enforced. The arse is gone out of this, realistically not much happens between now and the 8th June still which is a farce in itself.

I'm not worried or even care about 20 people a day dying and 100 new cases and I'll care less as the numbers fall further. Its human nature

Ginger n Lemon

rob316 wrote: »

A lockdown is only as good as its enforced. The arse is gone out of this, realistically not much happens between now and the 8th June still which is a farce in itself.

I'm not worried or even care about 20 people a day dying and 100 new cases and I'll care less as the numbers fall further. Its human nature

As harsh as you may come across its so true.

Its sucha pity that our younger generation will grow up with so much hate and dislike for their own country. All at the hands of a handful of "medical" experts.

I think the previous poster on prior thread put it down very much spot on - we need to find justifications of continuing the lockdown. Not lifting the lockdown.

robbiezero

amadangomor wrote: »

We really are a whinging generation.

Can you imagine say when London was getting bombed during the Blitz that people would complain about having to go to shelters, children getting evacuated and men having to go off to war to fight the evils of nazism. Nah, they had a fecking backbone and did what was needed.

Here some of our population are whining and moaning endlessly about having to sit home and watch TV. Which is all we have to do to stop the biggest crisis facing our generation.

Really sad!

That absolute dung got old weeks ago.

normanoffside

Also:

LiquidZeb

robbiezero wrote: »

That absolute dung got old weeks ago.

It's like Uncle Albert from only fools and horses. 'During the war.....'

ceadaoin.

Where I am is starting phase 1 of the reopening tomorrow, earlier than the original date of May 15. Shops, restaurants, salons etc can operate at 50% capacity. Even bars can open if they also serve food but the actual bar can't be used for seating.. I wonder if they'll be busy?

I noticed yesterday way more people out and about and the supermarket and hardware shop was pretty busy. Massive queue of cars for Starbucks drive thru. People are sick of the lockdown the world over it seems.

Ginger n Lemon

Heres a case for lifting restrictions MUCH MUCH earlier


"As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu."

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

The numbers do not make any sense when you think about the damage done to the business sector. Especially hospitality

gozunda

growleaves wrote: »

Londoners only went into shelters during bombing raids then they came out again. Throughout the 39-45 war, including during the London Blitz bombings, they kept open schools and universities, examinations, arts (theatre, opera, music, dance), museums, book shops, scientific research, live sports etc.

A grown man who wanted to confine people in shelters indefinitely in order to "save lives" would not have been listened to in the 1940s, you can be certain of that.

The poster did not poster say otherwise. The fact is that massive restrictions were placed on the entire population during WW2. Curfews were common. People were killed by bombs even in bomb shelters. ARP and police were given enhanced powers. Travel was restricted. Food was rationed. Children were packed up and dispatched away from their families to live with strangers in rural areas. Thd reason that some public facilities remained open was to keep morale up and to cater for those in the army and those in the war effort. The primary difference was there was no major contagion so that wasnt a risk which had to be considered.

The hyperbole in this thread is truely at historic levels tbh.

Restrictions have been put in place in many countries around the world. So no it's not only a "grown man". And no one wishes to "confine people in shelters indefinitely".

In Ireland people have been under stay at home restictions for 6 weeks. Italy had 2 months. And yet we have 'grown men" whinging like babies - that they can't go the pub. The same individuals would most likely have been incarcerated in the 1940s ...

We are more enlightened now. The same get to moan and whinge instead on social media ...

normanoffside

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Heres a case for lifting restrictions MUCH MUCH earlier


"As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu."

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

The numbers do not make any sense when you think about the damage done to the business sector. Especially hospitality

One thing I have noticed is that hysterical people do not like dealing with Maths.

Ginger n Lemon

normanoffside wrote: »

One thing I have noticed is that hysterical people do not like dealing with Maths.

I actually think that the reason 350 eur per week covid payment is so generous is because government knows that its taking peoples jobs away (permanently). But to sooth the blow they pay them 350 eur for 4 - 6 - 10 weeks and try to make it seem like there are no changes at all.

What a spineless tactic

LiquidZeb

gozunda wrote: »

The poster did not poster say otherwise. The fact is that massive restrictions were placed on the entire population during WW2. Curfews were common. People were killed by bombs even in bomb shelters. ARP and police were given enhanced powers. Travel was restricted. Food was rationed. Children were packed up and dispatched away from their families to live with strangers in rural areas. Thd reason that some public facilities remained open was to keep morale up and to cater for those in the army and those in the war effort. The primary difference was there was no major contagion so that wasnt a risk which had to be considered.

The hyperbole in this thread is truely at historic levels tbh.

Restrictions have been put in place in many countries around the world. So no it's not only a "grown man". And no one wishes to "confine people in shelters indefinitely".

In Ireland people have been under stay at home restictions for 6 weeks. Italy had 2 months. And yet we have 'grown men" whinging like babies - that they can't go the pub. The same individuals would most likely have been incarcerated in the 1940s ...

We are more enlightened now. The same get to moan and whinge instead on social media ...

There'll be plenty of grown men whinging when they get laid off and the letters from the bank start coming? Will they invoke the blitz spirit? Go off to the daily mail comments section to flog that ****e.

stephenjmcd

normanoffside wrote: »

Also:

Yes for example if a patient has terminal cancer and contracts covid in the hospital settings and subsequently dies, its recorded as a covid death regardless of if it was the ultimate cause of death or not as the case may be.

LiquidZeb

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I actually think that the reason 350 eur per week covid payment is so generous is because government knows that its taking peoples jobs away (permanently). But to sooth the blow they pay them 350 eur for 4 - 6 - 10 weeks and try to make it seem like there are no changes at all.

What a spineless tactic

Bread and circuses. It's a tactic as old as the hills.

normanoffside

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes for example if a patient has terminal cancer and contracts covid in the hospital settings and subsequently dies, its recorded as a covid death regardless of if it was the ultimate cause of death or not as the case may be.

Yes. so basically the mortality rate is even lower again.
At this stage it literally is no more deadly than flu.

Ginger n Lemon

LiquidZeb wrote: »

There'll be plenty of grown men whinging when they get laid off and the letters from the bank start coming? Will they invoke the blitz spirit? Go off to the daily mail comments section to flog that ****e.

They need to lift restrictions fast and save as many jobs as possible.


I cant believe we are even discussing WW2. In world war 2 men went to war accepting HUGE risk to protect their way of life.

Ireland in 2020: stay at home to avoid risk and give up your way of life.

In war terms we have surrounded through cowardice.

People who fought in WW2 would be ashamed of us now.

growleaves

Yeah but gozunda if people had hid in shelters throughout the 39-45 war they would have saved more lives without a doubt. Yet they chose not to do that. That generation of brave and stoic people did not think that "saving lives" was paramount. They thought it was more important to keep going. Biological life span and extending it was not the bottom line.

Life went on, just as it went on during serious pandemics like the 1968-69 pandemic (2 million dead).

normanoffside

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

They need to lift restrictions fast and save as many jobs as possible.


I cant believe we are even discussing WW2. In world war 2 men went to war accepting HUGE risk to protect their way of life.

Ireland in 2020: stay at home to give up your way of life.

In war terms we have surrounded through cowardice.

People who fought in WW2 would be ashamed of us now.

I agree with that.
What were the chances of dying or being permanently inured/disabled if you went to WW1 or WW2?
I think a lot higher than 0.1%

stephenjmcd

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes. so basically the mortality rate is even lower again.
At this stage it literally is no more deadly than flu.

It could well be lower, we actually wont have any way of knowing. You might be able to get some idea as to how serious of a condition someone might have already been in going by underlying conditions but we might never know what the true mortality rate is.