Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings

JRant · 27-05-2020 11:20PM

Arghus wrote: »

It's far worse than flu.

I'll link to this again:

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

If you look at their graph measuring excess mortality across all ages. It measures excess mortality for 2018, 2019 and what we have had so far for 2020. These people measure death rates from flu across Europe.

The line on the graph representing 2020 is absolutely huge compared to the two previous years.

Very interesting link, thanks for sharing.
Looks like there are very real differences between neighbouring countries, which will make for very interesting research in years to come.

Our Z score looks like we have very few excess deaths here thankfully.

bb1234567 · 27-05-2020 11:30PM

thebaz wrote: »

You called me out on it - twice - as if I just made up the number - thats what a frightened Irish public was told - it is playing out like a bad flu - the death rate is not 2% , nevermind the 20% or 10% I have seen quoted on boards , some experts believe it could even be under .1% and that is on par with flu.

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Btw it's funny you're making fun of this person who apparently thought it was 10% IFR because like him who overestimated by a factor of ten you underestimate by a factor of 10, so you're equally wrong !

thebaz · 27-05-2020 11:45PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Only a professor from Oxford Univerity :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

but I suppose you too are a Proffesor , so less of the ignorant abuse

road_high · 27-05-2020 11:46PM

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

bb1234567 · 27-05-2020 11:48PM

thebaz wrote: »

Only a professor from Oxford Univerity :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

but I suppose you too are a Proffesor , so less of the ignorant abuse

It doesn't matter an iota who said it. He is wrong, antibody tests, and the actual percentage of people who have died from the virus in a given population, both show that his opinion is completely wrong. And no I am not a professor, nor am I nearly as smart as him, but it doesn't mean there is not existing proof which enitrely discredits this opinion. Actual reality trumps an opinion even if its the opinion of the greatest most intelligent mind on earth, sorry to say.

Utopia Parkway · 27-05-2020 11:49PM

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

growleaves · 27-05-2020 11:51PM

Link

Raw numbers, with official COVID deaths subtracted:

us_weeklyalldead.part_-2.png?resize=768%2C320&ssl=1

Since the dashed line doesn’t drop as usual, this suggests the lockdown is killing people. Worse in England.

stephenjmcd · 27-05-2020 11:52PM

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

Already started and its getting more frequent, Leo saying at every chance the last few days if the data allows he'll speed things up, CMO comes out and crushes it later that evening. This weeks cabinet meeting will probably be fairly straight forward.

Its next weeks one where they've to make decisions on phase 2 and any other measures that'll be interesting.

alta stare · 27-05-2020 11:52PM

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

I think they know they are loosing the people no matter what people say on social media or the mainstream media. Only a handful of their followers will be left swooning over them soon no matter what crap we are spoon fed from the government.

More and more people are out and about. The weather is playing a big part in that. I was at the beach today and ill be bringing my child again Friday.

thebaz · 27-05-2020 11:52PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It doesn't matter an iota who said it. He is wrong, antibody tests, and the actual percentage of people who have died from the virus in a given population, both show that his opinion is completely wrong. And no I am not a professor, nor am I nearly as smart as him, but it doesn't mean he is not entirely wrong.

Well you seam to know it all , but if you bothered watching you would have realised it was a woman - now good night - had eneogh of this ****ing place and the abuse - believe Tony and co and WHO all you want - I'll believe what I want.

Idbatterim · 27-05-2020 11:53PM

Hoolahan has no power, wtf aRe people on about ?!

bb1234567 · 27-05-2020 11:54PM

thebaz wrote: »

Well you seam to know it all , but if you bothered watching you would have realised it was a woman - now good night - had eneogh of this ****ing place and the abuse - believe Tony and co and WHO all you want - I'll believe what I want.

Will it make you happy to believe it is the same as flu even though you know it won't change the actual reality of how we have to deal with it as a society. I don't care what the WHO or Tony say, I believe the results of antibody tests, which have determined the IFR to be around 1%, because it is proof, and not an opinion of people with any kind of bias or vested interests or political alinements or trying to scare monger, it is just objective truth and nothing more.

stephenjmcd · 27-05-2020 11:55PM

alta stare wrote: »

I think they know they are loosing the people no matter what people say on social media or the mainstream media. Only a handful of their followers will be left swooning over them soon no matter what crap we are spoon fed from the government.

More and more people are out and about. The weather is playing a big part in that. I was at the beach today and ill be bringing my child again Friday.

Mid to high 20s all weekend, you wont be the only one at the beach, but we'll probably be shown the images on the news of busy beaches and told this isn't acceptable.

alta stare · 27-05-2020 11:57PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Mid to high 20s all weekend, you wont be the only one at the beach, but we'll probably be shown the images on the news of busy beaches and told this isn't acceptable.

Fu(k em.

Jim Root · 27-05-2020 11:57PM

road_high wrote: »

Notice how "saint" Tony is getting a lot more ratty and confrontational the more he is being questioned...at the start of the mania all the loons were hanging on his every syllable. Now we have the threats, the dismissiveness. Reckon this could all bubble over quite nicely into a political storm to push him out of the way (not that he'll be going anywhere too easily).

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

road_high · 27-05-2020 11:57PM

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Oh no doubt they'll be a blame game between the politicians and NPHET coming somewhere down the line.

Yes can see it already with the nursing homes. Holohan and co will probably be hung out to dry at some stage when it's politically expedient to do so. Not that they'll suffer any consequences or anything.

alta stare · 27-05-2020 11:58PM

Jim Root wrote: »

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

If he cant handle the pressure then he needs to be moved on.

Cork Boy 53 · 27-05-2020 11:59PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Already started and its getting more frequent, Leo saying at every chance the last few days if the data allows he'll speed things up, CMO comes out and crushes it later that evening. This weeks cabinet meeting will probably be fairly straight forward.

Its next weeks one where they've to make decisions on phase 2 and any other measures that'll be interesting.

That may well be the last cabinet meting with the current government in place. I doubt they will rock the boat before exiting the stage.

road_high · 28-05-2020 12:00AM

Jim Root wrote: »

You try and do live tv conferences every day for 10 weeks and see how your composure holds up.

I couldn't give a damn about his sensibilities. Is he doing it for free or something? If it's such a chore for him, push off and let someone (mildly competent) do it.

thebaz · 28-05-2020 12:01AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Will it make you happy to believe it is the same as flu? You know, it won't change the actual reality. I don't care what the WHO or Tony say, I believe the results of antibody tests, which have determined the IFR to be around 1%.

I said some experts said it may be at .1 , you called me ignorant , thats what I took issue with -

CruelSummer · 28-05-2020 12:02AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

And those experts are completely wrong. It is far higher than flu, multiple large scale antibody studies have now determined it in the range of 1%

Can you explain how a virus with an IFR 'under 0.1%' could already have killed 0.2% of new York city's population when antibody tests showed only 20% of the city residents have had it?
Youd have to wonder at the ignorance of some posters to the reality of the situation around the world coming out with bs like this

Btw it's funny you're making fun of this person who apparently thought it was 10% IFR because like him who overestimated by a factor of ten you underestimate by a factor of 10, so you're equally wrong !

The antibody tests are not always accurate and with SARS 1, it took a few months for them to show in the majority of people. Saw some Oxford and other experts suggesting while they may not be accurate yet, they’re a good starting point.

RobitTV · 28-05-2020 12:03AM

Things are going to begin to unravel within the next two weeks. Holohan is now starting to get questioned more and Leo and the cabinet are starting to say different things.

The disagreements are starting to spill out publicly and i think there won't be any Christmas cards for Holohan this year.

Idbatterim · 28-05-2020 12:04AM

ItS a likely a once in a lifetime opportunity for hoolahan and his ilk. Of course he wants to milk it for all its worth. In his defence, hes being charged with reducing covid deaths . So no wonder hes hell bent on that it's the politicians who should be taking the broader implications into account, but are still in cloud cuckoo land. Saint Tony, its embarrassing, did he rid Ireland of the virus or something weeks ago ?

Cork Boy 53 · 28-05-2020 12:04AM

road_high wrote: »

I couldn't give a damn about his sensibilities. Is he doing it for free or something? If it's such a chore for him, push off and let someone (mildly competent) do it.

Who would you suggest?

RobitTV · 28-05-2020 12:06AM

Wow - Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has rubbished claims by Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary that the Irish people are being punished with one of the strictest lockdown regimes in Europe

Asked if the outspoken Ryanair chief was correct to say Irish people are being penalised by one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns, Dr Holohan replied: “No.”

Questioned if the millionaire businessman was correct in saying a quarantine has no basis in science or public health, he also answered: “No.”

Michael O'Leary should put his money where his mouth is and launch a legal challenge.

bb1234567 · 28-05-2020 12:06AM

thebaz wrote: »

I said some experts said it may be at .1 , you called me ignorant , thats what I took issue with -

I believe it to be ignorant behaviour to post the beliefs of scientists claiming this virus may have an IFR of 0,1% when it is literally an impossibility based on the number of deaths in several regions where the virus is widespread and has killed greater than that percentage of the total population in those areas.

Youre talking about how you are mad that the media scare mongered with false info at the beginning of the outbreak, yet you are spreading misinformation yourself

thebaz · 28-05-2020 12:08AM

Idbatterim wrote: »

ItS a likely inde in a lifetime opportunity for hoolahan and his ilk. Of course he wants to milk it fir all its worth. In his defence, hes being charged with reducing covid deaths . So no wonder hes hellvebt on that it's the politicians who should be taking the broader implications into account, but are still in cloud cuckoo land

but people suffering non-Covid illness dont seam to matter in the World of Tony and Simon , its time to look at the bigger picture and stop just living in a lockdown world that worked up until a couple of weeks ago - things have moved on - and other (a lot) peole are now suffering with other serious issues.

Arghus · 28-05-2020 12:08AM

JRant wrote: »

Very interesting link, thanks for sharing.
Looks like there are very real differences between neighbouring countries, which will make for very interesting research in years to come.

Our Z score looks like we have very few excess deaths here thankfully.

Our z score isn't as all that bad, but some are...wow...

England is unbelievable.

stephenjmcd · 28-05-2020 12:09AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That may well be the last cabinet meting with the current government in place. I doubt they will rock the boat before exiting the stage.

Could well be, big week ahead in both senses.

There'll still be a few ministers left I'd say, can't see Harris getting the boot for example but we could see a different approach in handling this from a new government potentially

Arghus · 28-05-2020 12:10AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Wow - Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has rubbished claims by Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary that the Irish people are being punished with one of the strictest lockdown regimes in Europe

Asked if the outspoken Ryanair chief was correct to say Irish people are being penalised by one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns, Dr Holohan replied: “No.”

Questioned if the millionaire businessman was correct in saying a quarantine has no basis in science or public health, he also answered: “No.”

Michael O'Leary should put his money where his mouth is and launch a legal challenge.

You'd wonder if Michael O' Leary has some of kind of vested interest in the whole affair...

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - Read OP for Mod Warnings