Off Topic Thread 5.0

Squidgy Black · 26-05-2020 12:24pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This massively changes my understand of approval ratings. This doesn't sound right to me. I would have thought Trump's approval rating would hoover around 0 than rather than 45 given the polarisation.

It's just semantics in how they project the figures, for example Trump is showing 53.7% disapprove and 42.8% approve, but rather than say the difference in approval rating to disapproval is a negative figure they say he has a 42.8% approval rating.

Whereas with BoJo's they're taking the difference between the approval and disapproval and using that figure.

sydthebeat · 26-05-2020 12:58pm

Squidgy Black wrote: »

It's just semantics in how they project the figures, for example Trump is showing 53.7% disapprove and 42.8% approve, but rather than say the difference in approval rating to disapproval is a negative figure they say he has a 42.8% approval rating.

Whereas with BoJo's they're taking the difference between the approval and disapproval and using that figure.

so for example in the figures given

Bojo is at 50.5% disapproved, 49.5% approve (-1%)... assuming no fence sitters

and Drumpf is at 53.7% disapprove, 42.8 approve (-10.9%)

Buer · 26-05-2020 1:00pm

Deleted User wrote: »

How can an approval rating be a negative number

It's a net score i.e. the percentage of those who approve minus the percentage of those who disapprove.

It's completely normal for a government or leader to be in negative numbers for the most part. What's eye catching it the size of the drop in a short space of time.

But regardless, -1% overall is something that won't bother Johnson at all. What isn't being noted is that his approval rating had significantly climbed since the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK; this has just brought him back to where the reality is. His approval climbed hugely between March and April.

26-05-2020 1:03pm

troyzer wrote: »

Public opinion and shouting from the opposite benches mean absolutely **** all. They can't force him to do anything he doesn't want to do. Only his party can.

The party will not allow the parties popularity to tank beyond a certain point.

I've long felt like Boris was an easy scapegoat for a bad Brexit and I think his neck was on the blocks with the party after no-deal or whatever capitulation they were left selling to the British people.

It could now be the situation that he's a spent force already and they'll need to figure out another way to get the Tory party through brexit.

Buer wrote: »

It's a net score i.e. the percentage of those who approve minus the percentage of those who disapprove.

It's completely normal for a government or leader to be in negative numbers for the most part. What's eye catching it the size of the drop in a short space of time.

But regardless, -1% overall is something that won't bother Johnson at all. What isn't being noted is that his approval rating had significantly climbed since the Covid-19 outbreak in the UK; this has just brought him back to where the reality is. His approval climbed hugely between March and April.

As with anything that drops this fast, it doesn't slow down straight away and the entire country had it's intelligence insulted yesterday.

I suspect the -1% is far from the end of the fall.

I also suspect that every major political party in the UK from Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England are about to unify against the Government over this and people will support them.

irishbucsfan · 26-05-2020 1:04pm

This stuff about Cummings editing his blog to include references to the virus, after having had it, is mad if true

stephen_n · 26-05-2020 3:01pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

This stuff about Cummings editing his blog to include references to the virus, after having had it, is mad if true

The claim being pushed out is, “he was clarifying an article he linked in the original post”.

Squidgy Black · 26-05-2020 3:46pm

Trump trying to say Biden's handling of the Swine Flu was a disaster to try and downplay the poll results about his handling of the coronavirus. Even comparing the two situations is mental

kuang1 · 26-05-2020 4:08pm

I'll be out of popcorn by tonight at this rate.

Neil3030 · 26-05-2020 4:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The party will not allow the parties popularity to tank beyond a certain point.

I've long felt like Boris was an easy scapegoat for a bad Brexit and I think his neck was on the blocks with the party after no-deal or whatever capitulation they were left selling to the British people.

It could now be the situation that he's a spent force already and they'll need to figure out another way to get the Tory party through brexit.

As with anything that drops this fast, it doesn't slow down straight away and the entire country had it's intelligence insulted yesterday.

I suspect the -1% is far from the end of the fall.

So far the entire cabinet have supported him, including Gove.

I also suspect that every major political party in the UK from Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England are about to unify against the Government over this and people will support them.

And the Tories will still be in a majority. And nothing will happen.

Those in favour of first-past-the-post voting point to it ensuring a majority, and providing a stable government for the prescribed term.

Well, to say we're now seeing the downside to such "stability" is an understatement...

stephen_n · 26-05-2020 5:28pm

I see that the Tories are now taking a chapter out Trumps playbook, the bot army are pushing out #scummedia and it’s trending. Although I don’t agree with some of the actions of the press outside his house. This challenge of media scrutiny is scarey.

pickarooney · 26-05-2020 5:34pm

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

More people polled disapprove of him than approve of him

It's not the case that they are simply summing "how many people approve" where the absolute lowest value is 0 approval, but rather they are contrasting "yes I approve" vs "no I don't approve" where the lowest possible value is 100% negative (no-I-don't-approve) approval.

So he was at almost 70% actual approval a couple of days ago (as in the actual % of people who said they approve of him)?
That's about 3 times higher than Macron.

Clegg · 26-05-2020 5:38pm

Dortmund Vs Munich just started. Biggest match since love sports returned.

prawnsambo · 26-05-2020 6:02pm

stephen_n wrote: »

The claim being pushed out is, “he was clarifying an article he linked in the original post”.

He completely removed a reference to Ebola and replaced it with one about SARS/Coronavirus. And did it on the day he returned to Downing Street. Not only is this easily proven using the Wayback Machine, the source for his blog page shows the last edited date and time. Breathtakingly stupid or arrogant or both.

clsmooth · 26-05-2020 6:20pm

Clegg wrote: »

Dortmund Vs Munich just started. Biggest match since love sports returned.

If you can, have a watch on fox sports 1. The ‘dynamic’ crowd sound really helps :cool: some goal by Kimmich

irishbucsfan · 26-05-2020 6:24pm

Portuguese coverage doesn't have the crowd noise. Just echoey sounds of players hurling abuse at each other auf deutsch

swiwi_ · 26-05-2020 7:38pm

In other news, I heard the politics forum is opening up a rival rugby discussion thread.

Neil3030 · 26-05-2020 7:57pm

stephen_n wrote: »

I see that the Tories are now taking a chapter out Trumps playbook, the bot army are pushing out #scummedia and it’s trending. Although I don’t agree with some of the actions of the press outside his house. This challenge of media scrutiny is scarey.

Is there a way to see what's trending via bot, as opposed to what's trending via genuine human behaviour?

prawnsambo · 26-05-2020 8:12pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Is there a way to see what's trending via bot, as opposed to what's trending via genuine human behaviour?

One million tweets map - onemilliontweetsmap.com gives you a map of the world and shows where a hashtag or other search term is being broadcast from.

Not quite what you're looking for, but the other methods are pretty slow. Like using botometer and entering the Twotter handle of the suspected bot after searching the hashtag on Twitter.

jacothelad · 26-05-2020 8:18pm

Specsavers have just introduced a new eye test for those of us who feel their eyesight may present a problem and make it dangerous to drive.
It involves putting your baby and spouse in the car and driving them 60 mile to look at a Castle and go for a walk by a river. If you don't crash in to the castle or fall in to the river and don't kill your family in a huge fireball collision because you can't see then it's probably safe to drive. ..

Or get your wife to drive....

Or don't make up complete ****e to attempt to weasel out of an embarrassing situation for which you should be sacked....

Or think all the population of the U.K. are gullible f+ckwits.

Just because moronic Tory voters believe this crap doesn't mean the rest of us do....nor, unlike the Cabinet and ERG, do we also believe that Hitler was framed.

Specsavers are also very sad that they wasted years and years and wasted millions on expensive equipment and nice shops when all they had to do was get you to drive at high speed to a holiday attraction with your baby strapped in the back

Bazzo · 26-05-2020 8:46pm

A really good piece about the Cummings debacle in the guardian(sorry swiwi)

Good for a laugh if nothing else

There, he delivered the most preposterous address to a nation since Tiger Woods stood in front of an audience, including his mother, and apologised to his wife and sponsors. The difference is that Woods had a problem with cocktail waitresses, while Cummings ****s entire public health messages in the middle of a deadly pandemic. Also, he’s not remotely sorry.

molloyjh · 26-05-2020 9:48pm

Has anyone been watching the docs on The Mandalorian? Just watched the tech one. Some really interesting stuff about how they used game engine tech to set up a room with LED screens on the walls & ceilings that rendered scenes, linked to the cameras in the same way that a player POV in a game, that would essentially create the sets digitally in real time from the cameras perspective. So it all but completely replaced green screen and allowed actors to actually experience the scene fully as well as allow them to tweak stuff like camera angles or lighting with relatively little effort.

pickarooney · 26-05-2020 9:50pm

molloyjh wrote: »

Has anyone been watching the docs on The Mandalorian? Just watched the tech one. Some really interesting stuff about how they used game engine tech to set up a room with LED screens on the walls & ceilings that rendered scenes, linked to the cameras in the same way that a player POV in a game, that would essentially create the sets digitally in real time from the cameras perspective. So it all but completely replaced green screen and allowed actors to actually experience the scene fully as well as allow them to tweak stuff like camera angles or lighting with relatively little effort.

Have you a link? I've no interest myself but my son would adore this.

molloyjh · 26-05-2020 10:53pm

pickarooney wrote: »

Have you a link? I've no interest myself but my son would adore this.

It's only on Disney+ I'm afraid.

Clegg · 27-05-2020 9:21am

Take aways from Dortmund Vs Bayern. Dortmund had more than enough chances in the first half to get something from the game. Sancho's fitness clearly suffered during lockdown. Looks rusty.

Alphonso Davies is a freak. He's just 19 years old and completely nullified Dortmund's attack down the right hand side.

27-05-2020 9:48am

Good watch from BBC newsnight last night, not really pulling any punches here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPi86EE1Hqg

4:45 -

"If it's about reputation then you are potentially sacrificing lives of the population to preserve the reputation of the Government"

This is never going away - Hancock ended up inventing policy yesterday to talk around this and the Government had to immediately back track.

39 Tories now calling for him to resign.

And then this absolute marvel from Alistair Campbell, obviously he is no fan of the Tories but he is spitting fire here on prime time BBC.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/duplicates/gqzlzl/alistair_campbells_bbc_interview_for_anyone_who/

prawnsambo · 27-05-2020 9:57am

Neil3030 wrote: »

Is there a way to see what's trending via bot, as opposed to what's trending via genuine human behaviour?

There's always somebody else who's done the work for you.

prawnsambo · 27-05-2020 10:09am

Deleted User wrote: »

And then this absolute marvel from Alistair Campbell, obviously he is no fan of the Tories but he is spitting fire here on prime time BBC.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/duplicates/gqzlzl/alistair_campbells_bbc_interview_for_anyone_who/

Watched that. Very good interview. Not just spitting fire though (although when he does, it's very entertaining), his 'I prepared this earlier' ten point plan was very good and well thought through. As he was reading it out, I was struck by how much of it we had done. And of course how little of it was done by Johnson and his cabal of the vacant.

stephen_n · 27-05-2020 10:16am

Much as I hate to quote anything from the Daily Fail. In this case though it makes it even more damming.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1265419527313121286?s=21

Buer · 27-05-2020 10:33am

Jesus Christ. An advisor who is distrusted and disliked by a huge portion of your population.

What a stupid hill to die on.

I can only imagine the internal discussions going on.

"Cummings should resign, Boris".

"My chief advisor says that's not necessary".

"Eh....."

prawnsambo · 27-05-2020 10:43am

Buer wrote: »

Jesus Christ. An advisor who is distrusted and disliked by a huge portion of your population.

What a stupid hill to die on.

I can only imagine the internal discussions going on.

"Cummings should resign, Boris".

"My chief advisor says that's not necessary".

"Eh....."

There are three possible reasons for sticking by him (that I can think of):

1. Without Cummings, Johnson is rudderless and doesn't have a clue how to manage anything. Also because of his ability to gaslight the nation for elections. (I'm leaning towards this one).

2. Cummings has 'something' on Johnson (the conspiracy theory - of which I'm not a fan, but it's out there).

3. Backers of Johnson have insisted he keeps him on. There are plenty of candidates for this, but top of the pile would be the press barons like Murdoch and the Barclay brothers who all think the sun shines from Cummings' nether orifice because of brexit.

Off Topic Thread 5.0

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