Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Hector Savage · 26-05-2020 10:56AM

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-26/spanish-health-ministry-lowers-coronavirus-death-toll-by-nearly-2000.html

Spanish Health Ministry lowers coronavirus death toll by nearly 2,000
The discrepancy has been attributed to the elimination of duplicate records and the fact that regions had reported suspected Covid-19 fatalities as confirmed cases

Onesea · 26-05-2020 11:30AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Stopped at 20% when all known and suspected cases and known contacts were isolated, and the remainder quarantined

Isolated in a cruise ship...

Hey check out the non existent death rate increase in Sweden. There prob is no increase annual death rate in Ireland or England too.

26-05-2020 11:31AM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

No, I didn't say it would have no consequences. I specifically said that like all reactions to this crisis, there would be a negative economic impact. But less than full lockdown for an indeterminate length of time. I don't mind you refusing to offer a coherent argument against this – that’s your prerogative, but do me the basic courtesy of not mis-representing my position.

Its the new way of debating. If you cant argue the point someone is making, misrepresent their argument, and argue against that instead. Then claim victory when they inevitably point this out

US2 · 26-05-2020 11:31AM

Why does that dude think there will be a second wave if we ease restrictions before 4 months yet every other country who have eased restrictions already prove otherwise?

Social distancing, handwashing ect are proven to be enough to keep the virus under control.

FishOnABike · 26-05-2020 11:35AM

owlbethere wrote: »

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/local-news/cork-disease-expert-says-lockdown-18306802

Cork disease expert says lockdown should stay for another four months. He says the road map for lifting restrictions will guarantee a second wave before we even reach phase 5 of the road map.

What do people think of this?

It's exactly why we have a phased reopening of things starting with the lower risk activities and working up to the higher risk activities with enough time in between to monitor the results and react appropriately if necessary to keep CoViD-19 under control at a very low and manageable level.

26-05-2020 11:36AM

Onesea wrote: »

Isolated in a cruise ship...

Hey check out the non existent death rate increase in Sweden. There prob is no increase annual death rate in Ireland or England too.

I dont know what you believe your graph is telling you but Swedish data for 2020 is of May 8th, which if you Pro rate for the entire year scales up to 109,000 for the year. Significantly higher than any other year.

Also, can you believe cruise ships have cabins!

hotmail.com · 26-05-2020 11:42AM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Well, explain it to me then, instead of just saying no.

Businesses open and close every weekday. They take weekends off. in some countries, huge swathes of the economy completley close down for all of August every year. Many business sectors only run for a part of a year, every year. Explain how an economy couldn't adapt to regular, defined and expected cycles of full and partial productivity, and how this is would be more damaging that comletley closing down for an indeterminate length of time.

Corona displays that shops should close on Sundays. No need for them to be open.

growleaves · 26-05-2020 11:45AM

Link

For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26 percent. Officials estimate a 0.4 percent fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35 percent rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26 percent — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4 percent estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50 percent asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2 percent – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1 percent or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.

eagle eye · 26-05-2020 11:46AM

Gregor Samsa wrote:

I'm certainly not saying we need to, but economically it would be possible to get into a rhythm of one month on, one month off if we had to. It would be arguably preferable to an indeterminate lockdown OR an open free-for all if this was going to be with us long-term.

I didn't quote you awful analogy.
Markets work off confidence in the future or lack thereof.
A second lockdown means predicting the future is impossible. It's a game ender, it'll cause a huge crash.

growleaves · 26-05-2020 11:48AM

A second lockdown means predicting the future is impossible. It's a game ender, it'll cause a huge crash.

So don't do it.

CDC now estimates the death rate outside of nursing homes is 0.1%

Committing mass suicide is not mandatory.

Onesea · 26-05-2020 11:49AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I dont know what you believe your graph is telling you but Swedish data for 2020 is of May 8th, which if you Pro rate for the entire year scales up to 109,000 for the year. Significantly higher than any other year.

Also, can you believe cruise ships have cabins!

With up to 100 cabins sharing the very same air. I can prove that if you want. I work in that industry.

With those stats we will end up with 109k deaths. When compared to the Stats from 18 we have 19k more than average.
Maybe the summer season will bring the numbers down. But to be honest this pandemic doesn't look anything as severe as made out.

Listening to bbc radio 5 for a min or two each morning, it's a predictable narrative slowly changing.

hmmm · 26-05-2020 11:50AM

https://brescia.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_23/04-brescia-polcincorriere-web-brescia-21c46738-9cd8-11ea-a31e-977f755d9d62.shtml

Wouldn't it be lovely if this did a SARS 1.

"Is there evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is changing?
«It seems to be losing strength. There is scientific evidence, as emerges from the work published in the Emerging Microbes & Infectionsby colleagues from Hong Kong, who found SARS-CoV-2 attenuated, as demonstrated by in vitro and animal model experiments. Also in our laboratory in Brescia we have just isolated a SARS-CoV-2 strain that looks very different from the previous ones in terms of aggressiveness. And other virologists also have this evidence. At the moment, however, it cannot be said how widespread these variants have become and whether they have taken over the more aggressive previous forms »."

eagle eye · 26-05-2020 11:56AM

growleaves wrote:

So don't do it.

Don't do what? Nobody wants a second lockdown. I was just pointing out that staying locked down longer is preferable to opening up and going into lockdown again.
We need to avoid a second lockdown at all costs. I think we should have quarantine and testing of all incomers to Ireland. You pass you get in, you fail you go home or go into state quarantine until such time as you are healthy.
We need to protect our people and our economy.

growleaves · 26-05-2020 12:05PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Don't do what? Nobody wants a second lockdown. I was just pointing out that staying locked down longer is preferable to opening up and going into lockdown again.
We need to avoid a second lockdown at all costs. I think we should have quarantine and testing of all incomers to Ireland. You pass you get in, you fail you go home or go into state quarantine until such time as you are healthy.
We need to protect our people and our economy.

Professor Killeen (UCC) has already floated the idea of for four years of rolling lockdowns, in spite that the death rate is 0.26% or 0.1% outside of nursing homes, because he wants nothing less than total eradication. He is being given extensive coverage all over Irish media.

Lockdown is a choice. For societies as well as individuals, committing suicide is a choice.

You can destroy Irish society and say 'We have to do this because the virus [or the data] is forcing us to do this.' But in the end it is voluntary.

stephenjmcd · 26-05-2020 12:06PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Don't do what? Nobody wants a second lockdown. I was just pointing out that staying locked down longer is preferable to opening up and going into lockdown again.
We need to avoid a second lockdown at all costs. I think we should have quarantine and testing of all incomers to Ireland. You pass you get in, you fail you go home or go into state quarantine until such time as you are healthy.
We need to protect our people and our economy.

This second lockdown talk is pure speculation, nobody wants one, there hasn't been one anywhere else and we're a hell of alot more prepared IF there's an increase in cases.

I would highly doubt there would be a 2nd lockdown because its economic suicide. Dragging this out till August is strangling the economy as it is.

The time is long gone for state quarantine etc, EU borders will open up over the next month or 2 and we won't be the outlier as much as some people (not saying yourself) want us to be.

Time to learn to live alongside this because if not it's a meager existence to lock ourselves away.

Oh and if any of the previous conversation had been to do with Professor Killeen (I've not looked back at the post history) he is the nutty professor, take a truck load of salt with anything he says

Onesea · 26-05-2020 12:07PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Don't do what? Nobody wants a second lockdown. I was just pointing out that staying locked down longer is preferable to opening up and going into lockdown again.
We need to avoid a second lockdown at all costs. I think we should have quarantine and testing of all incomers to Ireland. You pass you get in, you fail you go home or go into state quarantine until such time as you are healthy.
We need to protect our people and our economy.

What happened to bravery, or simply admitting yes we all might die one day(

) but until then let's try our best not to get sick. Was your hands, tell kids not to spit, cough into your jumper and keep your hands away from your face until you get home and wash em.

There won't be another lockdown and this one has run its course.

I see alot of people enjoying their time off work, going for walks drinking everyday.. Maybe one area of lesser off people aren't all for getting back to normal.

AllGunsBlazing · 26-05-2020 12:08PM

US2 wrote: »

Why does that dude think there will be a second wave if we ease restrictions before 4 months yet every other country who have eased restrictions already prove otherwise?

Social distancing, handwashing ect are proven to be enough to keep the virus under control.

Handwashing is why we haven't seen a major outbreak among supermarket staff imo. No way to effectively distance for them. I'm no expert but I suspect this is mainly a hand to mouth/nose virus.

hmmm · 26-05-2020 12:08PM

growleaves wrote: »

Link

The "Ron Paul institute for Peace and Prosperity"

?

I looked at the CDC report they were quoting, and the introduction says:
"Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19."

Does anyone actually read these reports, or just the headlines?

Gregor Samsa · 26-05-2020 12:09PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I didn't quote you awful analogy.
Markets work off confidence in the future or lack thereof.
A second lockdown means predicting the future is impossible. It's a game ender, it'll cause a huge crash.

But the point is that a predictable, structured cycle provides the confidence. Everyone goes into it knowing exactly when it will start, end and repeat. As opposed to an open ended extension of the current lockdown, or a second lockdown convened in panic, neither of which allow for any economic confidence (as we have been witnessing).

I personally don't think it will be required, I think social distancing, contract tracing and hygine practices will keep it from flaring back up. Maybe a few other measures are needed too. Up to now, we've been doing what we have to do, and we're easing our way out. But if Covid 19 was going to be with us long-term with significant impact on our health system (which I don't think is going to be the case, but "if"), would it not be better to have a predictable, structured way of managing it?

weldoninhio · 26-05-2020 12:11PM

Strumms wrote: »

Is he being hounded ? I don’t think so.

People are calling for his head as a result of behavior that is well below the standards of the office and responsibility he holds. A lot of people are correctly expressing this. It’s a democracy and that is allowed, people are allowed to express that view while holding him accountable.

People are not hysterical and no examples of cowardice, people are simply outraged by his behavior and rightly so.

He is being paid by the public to ‘lead’. He has failed when it mattered most and he’s been pulled up and held to account. Good on them.

Of course he’s been hounded ffs. The media has been camped outside his house for days. A fecking digital truck was pulled up outside his house. He is not being paid to “lead”, you are thinking of Boris Johnson. Cummins is paid to advise.

igCorcaigh · 26-05-2020 12:19PM

https://twitter.com/BrennanSpiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=19

Gregor Samsa · 26-05-2020 12:23PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Of course he’s been hounded ffs. The media has been camped outside his house for days. A fecking digital truck was pulled up outside his house. He is not being paid to “lead”, you are thinking of Boris Johnson. Cummins is paid to advise.

The media were camped outside his house for all of Brexit too, such was his influence on that process, this is nothing new.

As for him being an advisor/leader, he was given personal veto on the appointment of all ministerial advisors, which led to the resignation of Sajid Javid as Chancellor, when Johnson refused to back him against Cummings in keeping the people he wanted. So while his title is Chief Adviser, he clearly has a more powerful role than just offering advice.

weldoninhio · 26-05-2020 12:24PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

The media were camped outside his house for all of Brexit too, such was his influence on that process, this is nothig new.

As for him being an advisor/leader, he was given personal veto on the appointment of all ministerial advisors, which led to the resignation of Sajid Javid as Chancellor, when Johnson refused to back him against Cummings in keeping the people he wanted. So while his title is Chief Adviser, he clearly has a more powerful role than just offering advice.

It may not be new, but it’s still hounding. He’s paid to advise. Anything else is Boris’ remit.

mandrake04 · 26-05-2020 12:24PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BrennanSpiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/australia-to-test-sewage-for-coronairus-as-testing-net-widens/12156858

26-05-2020 12:32PM

Drumpot wrote: »

So what happens if another virus arrives and it’s worse then COVID?

I can see both sides of the argument but what the people on the “what about economy” side of the debate don’t seem to grasp Is that we aren’t in control of the virus, only how we react to it. Trying to push open business and restart economies with a kinda different but same approach is such narrow minded thinking.

All the rules of financial and economical processes are invented by man so can be changed by man. But people (certainly backed those who are invested in it the most) appear to have an almost religious dogma with regards to how we should bend to what economies/capitalism needs, as opposed to fundamentally ask ourselves if maybe it’s a defunct and out of date way of the world being run.

It clearly is not fit for purpose, especially when you see countries try to encourage practises (schools opening, flights, pubs etc) that’s about finance not common sense. It’s also clear how easily people can be deluded based on the principle of money/capitalism that can override common sense to even protect ourselves (global warming etc). There’s a reason why scientists think one of the most likely ways there will be a mass extinction event is basically us killing ourselves. It’s a world where the loudest are followed and the wisest are usually ignored.

If we had any sense the serious questions would be asked “how do we change our way of living so that we can manage interruptions that we can’t control better?”. Instead we are stuck with the very narrow minded “the economy has to open up again” Type chatter.

Right and this all sounds lovely, but unless we have a replacement solution right now, delaying opening the economy hurts us. That's reality.

political analyst · 26-05-2020 12:40PM

Strumms wrote: »

She was blaming them because that is the sort of behavior that would and could bring us back to square one.

That is the sort of behavior that could threaten her life and the lives of others with CF and other respiratory conditions.

CF is a terminal illness, in EVERY case. CF sufferers live every day with tremendous value. Good things have been achieved over the last 20 years... in the US the average lifespan of a CF patient is 37. 20 years plus ago it was less then half that. It WILL kill you, nobody recovers. The disease has been prevalent in our family so I know. One of my sisters died at 7 months, the other at 8 years.. approximately 900 people suffer with this condition at present in Ireland..

1 out of every 5 deaths in Ireland is related to a respiratory condition / disease, that’s almost 40% higher than the EU average...

In 2018, 4165 people died due to respiratory conditions...

So let’s again, think of others, as much as it sucks, put our social ‘needs’ to the back of the priority list, put the determination to make money at all costs, including human loss and suffering to bed...

It’s ****, nobody is liking this but it will be liked a whole lot less if things get out of hand when we had the chance to actually GIVE a hand and save lives, keep people healthy but balance sheets are more important to some...I get it.

No, you don't get it. If you throw the economy out the window, there'll be less money for the Exchequer and then it won't be possible to fund an adequate health service - a scenario that certainly wouldn't help cystic fibrosis sufferers. At the end of the day, it's not their fault - it's nobody's fault at all - that some people have CF.

polesheep · 26-05-2020 12:43PM

For those that doubt that the HSE sent Covid-19 into the nursing homes.
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-committee-nursing-homes-5107694-May2020/

bekker · 26-05-2020 12:52PM

hmmm wrote: »

The "Ron Paul institute for Peace and Prosperity" ?

I looked at the CDC report they were quoting, and the introduction says:
"Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19."

Does anyone actually read these reports, or just the headlines?

No it doesn't, selective quoting can be very misleading, this is an 8 page report. Both linked headline and your post are misleading.

'CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response external icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling. The planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenarios can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool.

Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. These values—called parameter values—can be used to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19.

New data on COVID-19 is available daily; information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values.

The parameters in the scenarios:

Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.'
...

Main trust of the linked article appears to be that media generally hyped earlier model of high COVID-19 % death rates, and are strangely silent on models incorporating CDC experiential data up to end of April some of which which show % deaths rates >100 times lower than earlier models. Just because Ron Paul Institute is contrarian conservative in political orientation doesn't negate CDC mathematical modelling results, such as they are.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

What Username Guidelines · 26-05-2020 12:52PM

hmmm wrote: »

https://brescia.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_23/04-brescia-polcincorriere-web-brescia-21c46738-9cd8-11ea-a31e-977f755d9d62.shtml

Wouldn't it be lovely if this did a SARS 1.

"Is there evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is changing?
«It seems to be losing strength. There is scientific evidence, as emerges from the work published in the Emerging Microbes & Infectionsby colleagues from Hong Kong, who found SARS-CoV-2 attenuated, as demonstrated by in vitro and animal model experiments. Also in our laboratory in Brescia we have just isolated a SARS-CoV-2 strain that looks very different from the previous ones in terms of aggressiveness. And other virologists also have this evidence. At the moment, however, it cannot be said how widespread these variants have become and whether they have taken over the more aggressive previous forms »."

Obviously we're dealing with far bigger numbers, but interesting how Sars peaked up quickly and then had a long tail, similar to most graphs in different countries with various levels of lockdown.

You'd wonder if this is a time-based thing (lasts 2-4 months for example) and does burn out, how long it will take to realise and release lockdown and even abandon new-normal back to old-normal. Assuming that is the case of course. But it is curious how in most countries it's following a curve and is difficult to see a strong change of course from lockdown. Even in UK, where their deaths still seem high, their chart of deaths by date of death, instead of reporting, is following the curve almost perfectly.

EY8GbX9WsAEBkjY?format=jpg&name=large

eagle eye · 26-05-2020 12:53PM

Onesea wrote:

What happened to bravery, or simply admitting yes we all might die one day( ) but until then let's try our best not to get sick. Was your hands, tell kids not to spit, cough into your jumper and keep your hands away from your face until you get home and wash em.

There's bravery and outright stupidity. We still don't know enough about this virus to decide it'll be ok.
Total eradication from.iurcshires and preventing entry without testing and quarantine is how you eradicate this thing.
If we had implemented what I mention above at the start of our lockdown we'd be free and clear now I think.

Onesea wrote:

There won't be another lockdown and this one has run its course.

You cannot predict that with any certainty.

Onesea wrote:

I see alot of people enjoying their time off work, going for walks drinking everyday.. Maybe one area of lesser off people aren't all for getting back to normal.

I don't know what lesser off people are. Are you saying less well off or more financially sound?
It doesn't really matter anyways, people are just finding the best way for them to get through this.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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