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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #1682
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Yes I’m familiar as I used to be an instrumentation specialist in clinical and molecular pathology before moving to Nuclear medicine and then CT diagnostics.


    These are point of care so Abbott only does 1 test in about 15mins, GeneXpert comes in 1, 2, 4, 16 module platforms takes about 45mins to do 1, 2, 4 or 16 tests.

    Sounds like the GeneXpert fits the bill perfectly then for the rapid testing clinics. Cheers Mandrake.


  • #1683
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    MD1990 wrote: »
    saw an interview with him back in March.

    Very impressive man. Someone you would want in a crisis,


    Telling the truth. Not what he thinks you need to hear!


  • #1684
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    joeysoap wrote: »
    Am I missing something. Sweden has gone for the herd immunity, yet they have ‘only’ 25,000 infections with a population of 9m.

    We have 22,000 with a population of 5m.

    If there’s a second wave , surely we will have more immunity?


    Sweden have tested 14.7 per 1000 of population
    We have tested 43.4 per 1000


  • #1685
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I thought that this was a fascinating interview from the ICU front line.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW-nmhWKd1M

    Wow, thanks for sharing. Doctors and nurses are amazing for the work they do.

    For all who are finding comfort is hearing 'underlining conditions', this doctor said that an underlying condition can be something mild and something manageable like pre diabetes can be managed well with diet yet this virus is hitting people.


  • #1686
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I thought that this was a fascinating interview from the ICU front line.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW-nmhWKd1M


    This guy's first video raised my stress and anxiety hugely. He speaks so well and professionally about it all.

    Did I learn my lesson and not watch this second one? No, and it stressed me again

    Essential viewing, even if you don't like what he's saying


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  • #1687
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Stheno wrote: »
    Two cases in the White House in the past two days one of Trumps valleys, and now Mike Pences assistant press secretary
    If Trump gets this and survives he will be even more unbearable


  • #1688
    PCeeeee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭PCeeeee


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    You have to admire their hard necks.

    Chancers.

    Thankfully they still appear quite well fed.


  • #1689
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    dublinman1990 wrote: »
    A close neighbour of mine has had Covid-19 for a while. She is an elderly woman & lives 5 houses down from me in Blackrock. She came home by ambulance last Sunday afternoon. Some other neighbours & paramedics were wearing masks & gloves whilst she came home. 3 days later on the following Wednesday; my mam had told me that she went back into hospital again, by ambulance, with worsening symptoms of Covid-19.

    Do I need to wear a face mask to reduce the risk of Covid-19 for me & my mother?

    I live in a block of 4 houses that have 3 elderly ladies, along with one man, as my neighbours.

    I am worried that I could eventually catch it soon & spread it to them. TIA.

    Where are you afraid you'll catch it?


  • #1690
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Stheno wrote: »
    Ah I just worked this out

    So based on the Finnish death rate being .2 to .3% and applying that to our number of 1500 deaths there could be up to 600000 people infected here? Rather 600000 people who are or have been infected?

    That's some amount of people infected if correct - does it not imply that for 99% of the population who've gotten it in this scenario, that it's pretty mild? Not that I'm trying to downplay the impact on those severely affected, mind

    I really hope that when they roll out antibody testing here they can test maybe 10% of the population

    A lot of our deaths occurred in residential care homes. Them residents weren't going out mixing with communities. It would be unlikely that we have 600,000 infected


  • #1691
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    owlbethere wrote: »
    A lot of our deaths occurred in residential care homes. Them residents weren't going out mixing with communities. It would be unlikely that we have 600,000 infected

    Sorry I was just extrapolating the figures and essentially thinking out loud :)

    Even if you halve it in line with our nursing home deaths that's 300000 cases


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  • #1692
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Stheno wrote: »

    If you sont mind me asking how many of the swabs can be processed at a time? Does it depend on the size of the machine that hold/process the samples?

    It depends on platform, if you want to take an analogy that most people are familiar with then look at printers.

    You have a small desktop printer at home, this is similar to your POC or point of care Molecular system described above that just sits on a desk. It can do 1 or maybe 4 tests at a time.


    Then there is the most common type system that is akin to your common office printer/photocopier. The more popular can do a batch of 96 tests (although sometimes 94 plus + & - control) at a time in about 3 hours. These involve a lot of operator interaction.

    Then you have systems that are akin to large reprographics room type printers the size of a small truck, these are the type Germany are doing the Irish tests on. They do about 4000 tests per day, first batch of 96 is out in 3.5 hrs and then 96 every 30 mins afterwards. These are load and walkaway 350 samples comeback and load another 350 without stopping the machine.


  • #1693
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,148 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    MipMap wrote: »
    If Trump gets this and survives he will be even more unbearable

    I really don't know he hasn't got it by now. Maybe sheer luck. With his age, size and diet, you'd wonder what shape he'd be in if he did.


  • #1694
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    Stheno wrote: »
    Ah I just worked this out

    So based on the Finnish death rate being .2 to .3% and applying that to our number of 1500 deaths there could be up to 600000 people infected here? Rather 600000 people who are or have been infected?

    That's some amount of people infected if correct - does it not imply that for 99% of the population who've gotten it in this scenario, that it's pretty mild? Not that I'm trying to downplay the impact on those severely affected, mind

    I really hope that when they roll out antibody testing here they can test maybe 10% of the population

    Those figures probably wont work for us, they've done a good job Finland

    As alluded to above we made a balls of it early on, leaving many many old folk to die in care homes

    We probably are at 0.6-0.7, double death rate of Finland.

    Your revised figure of 200,000 - 300,000 cases or 5% country infected looks right

    UK scientists who made an even bigger mess of it are estimating 0.80 death rate there and 10% infected

    People are talking about needing to get to 70% herd immunity, but alot of people might never get infected with Covid, alot of people never get the flu, it would never infect 100% population


  • #1695
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Stheno wrote: »
    Sorry I was just extrapolating the figures and essentially thinking out loud :)

    Even if you halve it in line with our nursing home deaths that's 300000 cases
    Trying to figure this out and here's my bit.
    Finland 5.5 Million people
    Total tests done 116,500
    Total cases detected = 5,738 = 5% detection rate.(5738/116,500)

    Antibody test results 2-3% - say 2.5
    Population infected 5.5M / 0.025 = 137,500
    Deaths - 260
    Deaths vs infected = 260 divided by 137,500 = 0.00189 or 0.2%


    Seems to add up but it suggests that the cases detected (5,738) represents only 4% of the total cases in the population (5738/137500)
    In other words their testing regime is only catching 4% of the cases in the community which implies testing is a waste of time.
    Whilst I don't believe the detection rate is anything like that low (either here or in Finland) I have always suspected that you could multiply our confirmed cases by 4 or 5 to determine what the true rate of infection in the community was here.
    And this is a good thing by the way cos it means 80% of people get the thing so mild they don't even look for a test. They don't even know they have it.
    All speculation I must say. Based on dodgy data from everywhere.


  • #1696
    Maestro85
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 199 ✭✭Maestro85


    MipMap wrote: »
    If Trump gets this and survives he will be even more unbearable


    You can't stump the Trump! :rolleyes:


  • #1697
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Stheno wrote: »
    Ah I just worked this out

    So based on the Finnish death rate being .2 to .3% and applying that to our number of 1500 deaths there could be up to 600000 people infected here? Rather 600000 people who are or have been infected?

    Finland have done half the number of tests Ireland have, and their population is slightly higher at 5.5 million so that makes the comparison a bit harder.

    I just wonder if the antibody test means
    a) The virus doesn't actually spread as much as predicted
    or b) Finland is going to have a bad "2nd wave"

    or something else?

    They are re-opening schools next week, so I guess we'll see if there is an impact. They are supposed to have social distancing and the lot in the classrooms, but a friend of mine who is a teacher in Finland says it's going to be difficult to implement that in practice (his school has 1000 students and it's overcrowded, and one of their buildings is closed for renovations).


  • #1698
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Stheno wrote: »

    I really hope that when they roll out antibody testing here they can test maybe 10% of the population

    Any antibody testing worth its salt is going use an immunology analyser like a Centaur, Electsys, Liaison or Architect i.

    Anyone who works in a hospital lab will tell you the same thing, capacity is tight as it is doing routine hospital work such as troponin, hcg, Ferritin etc most Immunoassy are used in cardiac, anemia and oncology applications which are extremely important. Even doing day to day serology has an impact and you are looking to 500,000 tests in what sort of timescale?


  • #1699
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭Polar101


    MipMap wrote: »
    Seems to add up but it suggests that the cases detected (5,738) represents only 4% of the total cases in the population (5738/137500)
    In other words their testing regime is only catching 4% of the cases in the community which implies testing is a waste of time.

    Agreed. They are also doing a really poor job at contact tracing, because by law only healthcare professionals are allowed to do the tracing.. that means they have very few people actually doing the tracing (I don't have a link, but I read a month ago they had about 10 people doing the tracing - I'd expect that has changed now, but gives you an idea of the scale).


  • #1700
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Finland have done half the number of tests Ireland have, and their population is slightly higher at 5.5 million so that makes the comparison a bit harder.

    I just wonder if the antibody test means
    a) The virus doesn't actually spread as much as predicted
    or b) Finland is going to have a bad "2nd wave"

    or something else?

    They are re-opening schools next week, so I guess we'll see if there is an impact. They are supposed to have social distancing and the lot in the classrooms, but a friend of mine who is a teacher in Finland says it's going to be difficult to implement that in practice (his school has 1000 students and it's overcrowded, and one of their buildings is closed for renovations).


    Next week the Finnish CMO could announce a further 700 because they decided to count people differently like we did on 24th April 2020 with 220 additional probable deaths.


  • #1701
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Any antibody testing worth its salt is going use an immunology analyser like a Centaur, Electsys, Liaison or Architect i.

    Anyone who works in a hospital lab will tell you the same thing, capacity is tight as it is doing routine hospital work such as troponin, hcg, Ferritin etc most Immunoassy are used in cardiac, anemia and oncology applications which are extremely important. Even doing day to day serology has an impact and you are looking to 500,000 tests in what sort of timescale?

    Havent thought it through to be honest, probably over an extended timeframe like 12 months?

    As I said I was thinking out loud when I posted earlier

    What's the point of the PCR point in time test if it's not possible to do surveillance testing for antibody testing in the community?


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  • #1702
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    804 new deaths in Brazil and over 10,000 new cases.

    Sad what's unfolding there. It's just reckless leadership.


  • #1703
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    804 new deaths in Brazil and over 10,000 new cases.

    Sad what's unfolding there. It's just reckless leadership.

    It speaks of an appalling arrogance, but it's not the only country it's happening in. Bolsonaro is some piece of work though


  • #1704
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Posting this for sole purposes of providing someone's view, I like to see all views.

    https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate


  • #1705
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Any antibody testing worth its salt is going use an immunology analyser like a Centaur, Electsys, Liaison or Architect i.
    Just a question.

    If I read you correctly are you saying that the idea that we will ever have a cheap DIY anti body kit will never happen?
    A lot of people seem to think this is a possibility in the near future (Claire Byrne, Luke O'Neill)
    I reckon if they could be produced we would have seen them before for seasonal flu and the like. Never heard of them until Covid 19 came along.


  • #1706
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Mike3287 wrote: »
    They have only 250 deaths it cant be widespread there

    Its actually great news

    With 2.3% of its 5 million population infected that put its death rate at 0.2-0.3%

    With nearly 1500 deaths we might have up to 10% infected

    It's 2.3% of Helsinki area only. Unknown in the rest of the country and thought to be much lower

    70% of deaths (180) in Finland are in Helsinki metro area which has a population of 1.45 million . So that is amortality rate of 0.54%


  • #1707
    Lord Trollington
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,419 ✭✭✭Lord Trollington


    dublinman1990 wrote: »
    A close neighbour of mine has had Covid-19 for a while. She is an elderly woman & lives 5 houses down from me in Blackrock. She came home by ambulance last Sunday afternoon. Some other neighbours & paramedics were wearing masks & gloves whilst she came home. 3 days later on the following Wednesday; my mam had told me that she went back into hospital again, by ambulance, with worsening symptoms of Covid-19.

    Do I need to wear a face mask to reduce the risk of Covid-19 for me & my mother?

    I live in a block of 4 houses that have 3 elderly ladies, along with one man, as my neighbours.

    I am worried that I could eventually catch it soon & spread it to them. TIA.

    Safest thing to do would be to burn down the block of houses in the dead of night.

    I have heard stories Covid penetrating walls .


  • #1708
    dublinman1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,882 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    Stheno wrote: »
    Where are you afraid you'll catch it?

    I want to ask about official policy for wearing face masks here whilst I am part of the general population as I am not a healthcare worker.

    For my personal situation; I do get hayfever symptoms around this time of the year as I am allergic to grass pollen. If I get do it early this year; I am not sure if I am actively spreading around my droplets if I do cough or sneeze around other people & potentially infect them with the virus. I do not have Covid-19 symptoms at the moment. But as a precaution; I would want to lower the risk of spread to other people who are not wearing any form of protection on their face while outdoors.

    Is there any official update from the DoH or the HSE that the general population should be wearing face masks here very soon? Thanks.


  • #1709
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,148 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Stheno wrote: »
    It speaks of an appalling arrogance, but it's not the only country it's happening in. Bolsonaro is some piece of work though

    Seems with US and UK having the worst number of deaths that those who embraced national populism are in bad shape. More issues at play of course but still interesting.


  • #1710
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Posting this for sole purposes of providing someone's view, I like to see all views.

    https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

    I had a long post typed out. Then I got to this part:
    we’ve left your generation with a real mess in order to save a relatively small number of very old people.
    I'm not even going to pass remark on this statement to be honest about it, because I wouldn't know where to start.


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  • #1711
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Stheno wrote: »
    Havent thought it through to be honest, probably over an extended timeframe like 12 months?

    As I said I was thinking out loud when I posted earlier

    What's the point of the PCR point in time test if it's not possible to do surveillance testing for antibody testing in the community?

    PCR test is simply for diagnosis, although in the case of Covid because of its infectious rate turnaround time is of essence as you use this tool to track contacts. The most critical time is at the start of your lockdown.

    Actually anal swab would have been more effective as virus is presenting in stool 3-4 days before symptoms. This is why in countries like Australia they are now testing sewage for community prevalence.

    Serology test can only detect antibodies that are presents after your body has cleared the disease, its of no use for diagnosis. By that time its just too late.

    to do mass serology testing its the same as the molecular testing you need the infrastructure to be able to do it.

    I already talked about this near a month ago.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113126964&postcount=391


This discussion has been closed.
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