Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I see one poster here wants us to be positive. Well, please see below:

anti body testing carried out in Germany, found Covid19 to have mortality rate of 0.36%.

anti body testing carried out in New york state, found covid 19 to have 0.56% mortality rate.

anti body testing carried out in california found covid19 to have 0.12% mortality rate.

In all 3 of these, over 15% of population already had covid19 and, as we have been told from the very start, had no symptoms/very mild symptoms.

I just hope when this is all over, we will have a responsible government who will create laws to ensure that some mad scientists cant just crash our economies and way of life based on their "models".

PS shocking story about a poster having delayed treatment, really hope it is scheduled asap. 1 thing is for sure, 1000+ people will sue HSE when this all over and pay outs will easily be worth more money than half a country on the dole for 3 months. bailout chances are increasing by the day...

Rainmann wrote: »

I don't understand why our elected officials just hand over the reins to a few medical experts and hide behind their decisions. Total lack of leadership!

Deleted User wrote: »

The saddest thing is, we’ll never know how many died or suffered terribly from the lockdown.
Thousands could be dead as a result of appointments cancelled or treatment cancelled or fear of going the hospital. It’s ridiculous that this is happening!

The recession will be awful. Unemployment, rises in suicide, addiction, crime, mental health issues and so many more things. Funding cut across the board. People losing their homes.

I don’t doubt that Covid 19 is fairly serious. It will probably kill a couple of thousand Irish, mainly over 65.

But the end result would have been better than what we are in for.

Nobody will ever be able to put a figure on how die during recession. No one will ever admit how many died as a result of missed treatments. We’ll give ourselves a pat on the back for “saving lives”

brickster69 wrote: »

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-revenues

Interest is 10,413€ Billion / year

Read more at: https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/

normanoffside wrote: »

Private doctors and consultants are being paid by the state to effectively do nothing.
Many were on the programmes tonight saying just this.

Unable to see their own patients and not being given any work to do, their beds left empty and tax payers paying for it.

Balf wrote: »

Yes, we understand that.
And, you understand, we also notice that the deaths, overwhelmingly, occur among the quarter of cases in the over 65 age group.
Do you see any significance in that, at all?

Well, I suggested that as restrictions came in we were looking at a reasonable best case scenario in the short-term ( to the end of May ) of 1500 to 2,000 dead. I think that has, unfortunately, been borne out.

I also suggested in a post earlier in this thread that what would determine our death toll over the next year would be the balance that would have to be struck between acceptable casualties and economic/social activity. At the time I said that everyone was backing the lockdown but, unfortunately, as I expected, human nature, short-sightedness and selfishness are presenting themselves again and already a significant minority of people are openly admitted they're happy to return to normal so long as they're only killing other peoples' parents/grandparents.

I suggested in that post that somewhere between 10 to 20 daily dead ( which would suggest that roughly 50 to 100 hospital admissions would occur daily, with an average treatment time of 2 weeks - so about 1,000 to 1500 hospitalised at any one time or 6 - 10% of the bed capacity) would be the acceptable figure to society. I think that is still so.

We have about 26,000 people in nursing homes in Ireland and when it gets into a nursing home/residential facility it seems the death rate is roughly 1/3rd of residents. I think that is in keeping with a mortality of about 10,000 dead up to March next year and another 300 to 500 per month after that until a vaccine becomes widely available.

So, I think we're still well on track for 10,000 dead in the year to March 2021 as a reasonable best case scenario and approximately about 13,000 till September 2021 IF we get the experimental vaccine in Q4 2020 and people continue to socially distance etc for the next 18 months.

IF we get a very safe and effective vaccine in September 2020 that situation will improve but while the vaccine will be effective I don't think they'll have proven safety by September 2020. There just isn't enough time to prove that and I expect stocks will be limited so I don't think there will be enough vaccine available to vaccinate healthcare staff and the elderly. In that situation healthcare staff should be prioritised as the best protection for the elderly then will be that the healthcare staff can't transmit it to them.

So, where are we. Pretty much on track for the reasonable best case scenario. The two things which will most impact this are:
1. Positively - a safer vaccine earlier. This could hugely reduce the death rate but while I think we'll have an experimental vaccine which is safe enough for high risk groups in Q4 2020 that won't solve the societal problem and I don't think we'll have the population vaccinated until Q4 2021.

2. Negatively - people being idiots once lockdown is lifted. I think this will absolutely happen. It won't be long before people are agitating to be able to go to pubs, soccer matches and to take advantage of all the cheap holidays in Spain, Croatia etc. If people behave in this way then we'll suffer significantly more dead and I think it would bump us up to the Pessimistic Best Case Scenario which would be 20,000 dead in the year to March 2021 and approximately 26,000 dead to September 2021.


I think though that the most likely outcome is somewhere between the two as people won't maintain social distancing and the government will find itself having to dial up and down restrictions at it seeks to balance economic activity with death rate.

So, if I had to bet money I'd say that from 1st March 2020 to 1st March 2021 we're probably looking at 15,000 dead, just splitting the difference, and with roughly 19,500 dead by the end of September 2021.

To put it into perspective we would normally have about 31,000 dead in a 12 month period so that 15,000 would mean 46,000 dead in the 12 month period which is a roughly 50% spike in deaths. That is very significant.

Are we lifting restrictions too soon? Yes, I think so but as I've said from the beginning, the lifting of restrictions will be based on a balancing of death rate and economic and social needs. Given the economic and social backlash the government's hand has been forced. As a society we can't blame the government for this, it is our fault.