Ginger n Lemon wrote: » I see one poster here wants us to be positive. Well, please see below: anti body testing carried out in Germany, found Covid19 to have mortality rate of 0.36%. anti body testing carried out in New york state, found covid 19 to have 0.56% mortality rate. anti body testing carried out in california found covid19 to have 0.12% mortality rate. In all 3 of these, over 15% of population already had covid19 and, as we have been told from the very start, had no symptoms/very mild symptoms. I just hope when this is all over, we will have a responsible government who will create laws to ensure that some mad scientists cant just crash our economies and way of life based on their "models". PS shocking story about a poster having delayed treatment, really hope it is scheduled asap. 1 thing is for sure, 1000+ people will sue HSE when this all over and pay outs will easily be worth more money than half a country on the dole for 3 months. bailout chances are increasing by the day...
Rainmann wrote: » I don't understand why our elected officials just hand over the reins to a few medical experts and hide behind their decisions. Total lack of leadership!
Mad_maxx wrote: » the last two months have shown that if government has the will , they can do anything , those who work in nursing homes should have been forcibly cocooned themselves but compensated for the inconvenience , employ a guard to chaparone them to and fro from work so they dont mix with others if need be
Mad_maxx wrote: » Your second point is altogether plain wrong , this disease is effectively harmless for the young but a tiny minority of young people die each year of various ailments , covid 19 is remarkably age specific in terms of who it most targets there are outliers and a small minority of people of all age profiles are vulnerable due to underlying conditions but these are statistically insignificant , we should not have crippled the economy to counter such eventualities , time will prove doing so has created more death sentences than covid 19 ever could
Lashes28 wrote: » Anyone know what faze shopping centres fall into?
Deleted User wrote: » The saddest thing is, we’ll never know how many died or suffered terribly from the lockdown. Thousands could be dead as a result of appointments cancelled or treatment cancelled or fear of going the hospital. It’s ridiculous that this is happening! The recession will be awful. Unemployment, rises in suicide, addiction, crime, mental health issues and so many more things. Funding cut across the board. People losing their homes. I don’t doubt that Covid 19 is fairly serious. It will probably kill a couple of thousand Irish, mainly over 65. But the end result would have been better than what we are in for. Nobody will ever be able to put a figure on how die during recession. No one will ever admit how many died as a result of missed treatments. We’ll give ourselves a pat on the back for “saving lives”
Rainmann wrote: » Exactly this. I don't understand why our elected officials just hand over the reins to a few medical experts and hide behind their decisions. Total lack of leadership!
gozunda wrote: » But more importantly - the issue of Covid-19 is not only with the over 70s and those in care homes. Only half the current deaths can be attributed to this cohort. Vulneralbities exist across all age groups - whether asthma, diabetes or other long term illnesses. And the disease affects a significant proportion of otherwise healthy under 70 year olds and results in a significant number of those infected being hospitalised.
normanoffside wrote: » And according to Prime Time just now, despite hospitals at 20% capacity, waiting lists for non-covid treatments have been put back 3 months. Private patients with operations cancelled. Cancer and other screenings and treatments have been effectively stopped. Up to 2,000 deaths could be caused because of the paralysis of the health system.
Deleted User wrote: » https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-holders-warned-payment-breaks-to-prove-costly-39183118.html Another article from today about mortgage payment breaks. Hint, they’re not free anyways.
Assetbacked wrote: » Some life as a hospital worker the past few weeks!
easypazz wrote: » Approx.90% of Covid deaths in Ireland are over ~65.
brickster69 wrote: » https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-revenues Interest is 10,413€ Billion / year Read more at: https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/
brickster69 wrote: » Problem for Irelands economy is it's debt repayments going forward. Already of 50% of the income ( 19.5 Billion ) goes on annual debt servicing, and that's before Covid.https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/
gozunda wrote: » Yoh do know that the issue is not only deaths yes? The above was not referring to over 65s 'deaths' btw. It was looking at active cases in care homes. But to digress and looking at today's figures - the over 65 age group accounts for just approx 26.8% of all active cases The fact is that 74.2% of all Covid infections are contracted by those under 65.
boetstark wrote: » Horse****, my neighbour is an icu nurse, 2 cases are both under 50 and still in icu after 3 weeks. Previously healthy and no underlying condition. I know both because they are work colleagues.
normanoffside wrote: » Private doctors and consultants are being paid by the state to effectively do nothing. Many were on the programmes tonight saying just this. Unable to see their own patients and not being given any work to do, their beds left empty and tax payers paying for it.
easypazz wrote: » Daragh Cassidy of Bonkers.ie calculated that a family with a €200,000 mortgage would rack up a €2,600 bill on their mortgage during a six-month payment break period.
Balf wrote: » Yes, we understand that. And, you understand, we also notice that the deaths, overwhelmingly, occur among the quarter of cases in the over 65 age group. Do you see any significance in that, at all?
Mad_maxx wrote: » Those unfortunate cases are extremely rare for anyone that age
gozunda wrote: » Well no some dont seem to understand that tbh. As already detailed from today's figures for corona virus 26.8% of active cases are from the over 65 age category. With 74.2% of all active cases being of those under 65. Significance of deaths? Current restrictions and preventing health services being overwhelmed directly relates to these figures - not just the proportion of deaths relative to age group. Ie what was being discussed in the original comment relating to older peope in care homes and elsewhere.
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
Well, I suggested that as restrictions came in we were looking at a reasonable best case scenario in the short-term ( to the end of May ) of 1500 to 2,000 dead. I think that has, unfortunately, been borne out. I also suggested in a post earlier in this thread that what would determine our death toll over the next year would be the balance that would have to be struck between acceptable casualties and economic/social activity. At the time I said that everyone was backing the lockdown but, unfortunately, as I expected, human nature, short-sightedness and selfishness are presenting themselves again and already a significant minority of people are openly admitted they're happy to return to normal so long as they're only killing other peoples' parents/grandparents. I suggested in that post that somewhere between 10 to 20 daily dead ( which would suggest that roughly 50 to 100 hospital admissions would occur daily, with an average treatment time of 2 weeks - so about 1,000 to 1500 hospitalised at any one time or 6 - 10% of the bed capacity) would be the acceptable figure to society. I think that is still so. We have about 26,000 people in nursing homes in Ireland and when it gets into a nursing home/residential facility it seems the death rate is roughly 1/3rd of residents. I think that is in keeping with a mortality of about 10,000 dead up to March next year and another 300 to 500 per month after that until a vaccine becomes widely available. So, I think we're still well on track for 10,000 dead in the year to March 2021 as a reasonable best case scenario and approximately about 13,000 till September 2021 IF we get the experimental vaccine in Q4 2020 and people continue to socially distance etc for the next 18 months. IF we get a very safe and effective vaccine in September 2020 that situation will improve but while the vaccine will be effective I don't think they'll have proven safety by September 2020. There just isn't enough time to prove that and I expect stocks will be limited so I don't think there will be enough vaccine available to vaccinate healthcare staff and the elderly. In that situation healthcare staff should be prioritised as the best protection for the elderly then will be that the healthcare staff can't transmit it to them. So, where are we. Pretty much on track for the reasonable best case scenario. The two things which will most impact this are: 1. Positively - a safer vaccine earlier. This could hugely reduce the death rate but while I think we'll have an experimental vaccine which is safe enough for high risk groups in Q4 2020 that won't solve the societal problem and I don't think we'll have the population vaccinated until Q4 2021. 2. Negatively - people being idiots once lockdown is lifted. I think this will absolutely happen. It won't be long before people are agitating to be able to go to pubs, soccer matches and to take advantage of all the cheap holidays in Spain, Croatia etc. If people behave in this way then we'll suffer significantly more dead and I think it would bump us up to the Pessimistic Best Case Scenario which would be 20,000 dead in the year to March 2021 and approximately 26,000 dead to September 2021. I think though that the most likely outcome is somewhere between the two as people won't maintain social distancing and the government will find itself having to dial up and down restrictions at it seeks to balance economic activity with death rate. So, if I had to bet money I'd say that from 1st March 2020 to 1st March 2021 we're probably looking at 15,000 dead, just splitting the difference, and with roughly 19,500 dead by the end of September 2021. To put it into perspective we would normally have about 31,000 dead in a 12 month period so that 15,000 would mean 46,000 dead in the 12 month period which is a roughly 50% spike in deaths. That is very significant. Are we lifting restrictions too soon? Yes, I think so but as I've said from the beginning, the lifting of restrictions will be based on a balancing of death rate and economic and social needs. Given the economic and social backlash the government's hand has been forced. As a society we can't blame the government for this, it is our fault.
Balf wrote: » So you see no particular connection to age? Its just a misleading distortion?
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