Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

bekker · 30-04-2020 03:31PM

COVID-19 viability on surfaces, study in public domain since March.

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

jesus_thats_gre · 30-04-2020 03:32PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

We are not that much different to the UK. Neck and neck per capita with the UK.
Ireland would be on par Denmark or New Zealand today if 20,000 utter gob$hites didn't go to Cheltenham, get infected, come home and contaminate the whole country.

Why are you misrepresenting the truth to such degree?

Is it intentional, are you cracking under the pressure, or are you just incapable - or not inclined maybe, of doing some basic research?

What Username Guidelines · 30-04-2020 03:44PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

For God’s sake… just copy exactly what Hong Kong is doing and stop this effing virus in its tracks before even more damage is done.

It's not even that complex. It's mostly widely-used masks. Massive population density too, still seems to have an effect.

ek motor · 30-04-2020 03:46PM

"Individual differences in genetic makeup may explain our susceptibility to the new coronavirus and the severity of the disease it causes"

Interesting read regarding the genetic factors which apparently make some ethnicities and blood groups more susceptible to Covid-19.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-your-genes-predispose-you-to-covid-19/

hmmm · 30-04-2020 03:47PM

Gael23 wrote: »

When a vaccine is developed, how do you stop countries that produce it keeping it for themselves?

Good question, you can't. Scott Gottlieb gave a good interview where he talked about the first country to develop a vaccine would have a huge economic incentive to keep it for their own people.

Hopefully the government is conducting some quiet diplomacy with the US, UK, France, Germany, China etc. to argue the case for us to receive it early. This is the sort of important and difficult stuff that happens in the background that the shouty online types don't value.

bekker · 30-04-2020 04:00PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the pandemic lends credence to the whole Greta Thunberg thing and climate change movement. Her point all along was that climate change has the capacity to cripple the global economy (in a variety of different ways) and to kill hundreds of millions. Perhaps one outcome of this year that people will take climate change a lot more seriously and treat it with great urgency.

Or possibly lead people to view theoretical, assumptive, tweakable modelling more sceptically, now that they've seen examples of it unfolding in real time.

political analyst · 30-04-2020 04:07PM

Why does Holohan not think that the number of cases is low enough to have a significant reduction in the restrictions?

boardise · 30-04-2020 04:09PM

hmmm wrote: »

Good question, you can't. Scott Gottlieb gave a good interview where he talked about the first country to develop a vaccine would have a huge economic incentive to keep it for their own people.

Hopefully the government is conducting some quiet diplomacy with the US, UK, France, Germany, China etc. to argue the case for us to receive it early. This is the sort of important and difficult stuff that happens in the background that the shouty online types don't value.

Might be true too though that there's much money to be made by selling it around if you're first in the market.
Also you'd like your potential customers to have a fully functioning economy to buy your stuff or produce what you happen to need.

30-04-2020 04:12PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why does Holohan not think that the number of cases is low enough to have a significant reduction in the restrictions?

Maybe because he has access to all the detailed data and is in a much better position than any of us to make an informed decision?

cnocbui · 30-04-2020 04:13PM

Gael23 wrote: »

When a vaccine is developed, how do you stop countries that produce it keeping it for themselves?

There are multiple vaccine programs in multiple countries. Several of them will likely come up with something that works, so it's unlikely there will be exclusivity. Also, it's most likely the first developer of a vaccine will just share it and it will be manufactured in facilities in multiple countries, simultaneously, such as:

Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca strikes deal with Oxford University to mass produce experimental COVID-19 vaccine for no profit - with first results from human trials expected in June

redarmy · 30-04-2020 04:15PM

The latest briefing at the Department of Health will take place at 5.30pm this evening.

It'll be the last one before tomorrow's NPHET and Cabinet meetings on lockdown restrictions.

Rob A. Bank · 30-04-2020 04:22PM

INMO Trolley Watch figures for April 30th 2020

46 beds short in Irish hospitals today, Limerick and Cork have the most overcrowding.

https://www.inmo.ie/Trolley_Ward_Watch

Rob A. Bank · 30-04-2020 04:33PM

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 30 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs. CET

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-30.png?itok=n9TnCKiD

novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-30.png?itok=n9TnCKiD

The daily case rate in Europe continues to decline thankfully.

However the light green band of UK cases contributed approx. 1/3rd of the reported cases this morning.

We really do need to get serious about a strict 14 day quarantine of UK visitors before they start new infections here.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

cameramonkey · 30-04-2020 04:35PM

Gael23 wrote: »

When a vaccine is developed, how do you stop countries that produce it keeping it for themselves?

why would they do that?

ElTel · 30-04-2020 04:37PM

Have many countries done random sampling of their entire population for covid19 or antibodies?

I guess it's a big drain on resources/logistics if you want to analyse the swabs in one lab.

Could/are the Irish Blood Transfusion service involved in plans for random testing?

cameramonkey · 30-04-2020 04:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe because he has access to all the detailed data and is in a much better position than any of us to make an informed decision?

He may have a lot of data but unfortunately he does not make always make timely calls on his informed decisions hence the position we are in.

EDit · 30-04-2020 04:44PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 30 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs. CET

The daily case rate in Europe continues to decline thankfully.

However the light green band of UK cases contributed approx. 1/3rd of the reported cases this morning.

We really do need to get serious about a strict 14 day quarantine of UK visitors before they start new infections here.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Today’s seems to be missing Spain. Unless they’ve had a serious drop since yesterday, looks like the total would be up on yesterday

martingriff · 30-04-2020 04:44PM

Gael23 wrote: »

When a vaccine is developed, how do you stop countries that produce it keeping it for themselves?

Unless they are going to self isolate from everyone and want to do business with other countries I doubt it

What Username Guidelines · 30-04-2020 04:45PM

ElTel wrote: »

Have many countries done random sampling of their entire population for covid19 or antibodies?

I guess it's a big drain on resources/logistics if you want to analyse the swabs in one lab.

Could/are the Irish Blood Transfusion service involved in plans for random testing?

Blood donors were used in Italy and Germany I believe, there have been antibody tests done in new york that suggest 25% of the population have them. Given the scramble going on right now with resources it seems like most countries have started small or are planning on it soon. Italy have started, and Spain are now adding antibody +ve cases to their totals, so their new daily totals look quite big.

It's gonna take time to get a decent random sample. One in LA recruited people with facebook ads so skewed it by asking if they think they may have had it. NY one was pretty random, but set up streetside near supermarkets, so the group tested were those 'out and about', which would also skew it.

Rob A. Bank · 30-04-2020 04:53PM

EDit wrote: »

Today’s seems to be missing Spain. Unless they’ve had a serious drop since yesterday, looks like the total would be up on yesterday

Yes.. and their yellow band was missing on the 19th as well. Not sure what is going on there.

hmmm · 30-04-2020 04:58PM

ElTel wrote: »

Have many countries done random sampling of their entire population for covid19 or antibodies?

I guess it's a big drain on resources/logistics if you want to analyse the swabs in one lab.

Could/are the Irish Blood Transfusion service involved in plans for random testing?

There are plans yes, but they are waiting to get accurate test kits.

We also need to decide what to do with the data. Are we going to spend millions on a "that's interesting" only, or are we going to use the data to guide our response in some way.

I can understand countries like Sweden using them as they are hoping for herd immunity. The rest are mostly in the "that's interesting" column.

hmmm · 30-04-2020 05:02PM

This is a pretty conclusive statement from the US intelligence community, and big kick-in-the-teeth for those who claim the virus was man-made.
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2112-intelligence-community-statement-on-origins-of-covid-19

"The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified."

keynes · 30-04-2020 05:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe because he has access to all the detailed data and is in a much better position than any of us to make an informed decision?

Well, it would be great if he shared his "detailed data" since you're suggesting it reveals a much less rosier picture that what he's portraying in public.

Beasty · 30-04-2020 05:05PM

ElTel wrote: »

Have many countries done random sampling of their entire population for covid19 or antibodies?

New York found 25% or so of the population has antibodies

Iceland did a lot of random sampling for Covid19

I think overall we've seen suggestions of 50% to 80% being asymptomatic,

Hrududu · 30-04-2020 05:06PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the pandemic lends credence to the whole Greta Thunberg thing and climate change movement. Her point all along was that climate change has the capacity to cripple the global economy (in a variety of different ways) and to kill hundreds of millions. Perhaps one outcome of this year that people will take climate change a lot more seriously and treat it with great urgency.

I dunno, there was some ****ing eejit on here a few weeks back saying that once all this was over if anyone spoke to him about something like climate change he'd tell them where to go. As in once we get through this people should just shut up about minor stuff (you know like climate change)

What Username Guidelines · 30-04-2020 05:07PM

hmmm wrote: »

There are plans yes, but they are waiting to get accurate test kits.

We also need to decide what to do with the data. Are we going to spend millions on a "that's interesting" only, or are we going to use the data to guide our response in some way.

I can understand countries like Sweden using them as they are hoping for herd immunity. The rest are mostly in the "that's interesting" column.

I think if you can get pretty confident with the results you can figure out the actual % that are hospitalised from it and it can help with planning for resourcing and perhaps with restrictions. I noticed 15% of irish confirmed cases have been hospitalised, not 20% as is quoted a lot. Guess that means we're finding more cases, but given our testing, it wouldn't be surprising to find out we have/had 10x cases. So maybe only 1.5% are hospitalised.

It also should be done in each country, as IFR across different countries will end up being different with age and existing conditions having different effects.

owlbethere · 30-04-2020 05:19PM

How accurate are them Antibody tests? Do they give false positives?

podgeandrodge · 30-04-2020 05:24PM

hmmm wrote: »

This is a pretty conclusive statement from the US intelligence community, and big kick-in-the-teeth for those who claim the virus was man-made.
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2112-intelligence-community-statement-on-origins-of-covid-19

"The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified."

Ahh but the Intelligence Community are in on it don't you see, so they would say that! :P

Strumms · 30-04-2020 05:25PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the pandemic lends credence to the whole Greta Thunberg thing and climate change movement. Her point all along was that climate change has the capacity to cripple the global economy (in a variety of different ways) and to kill hundreds of millions. Perhaps one outcome of this year that people will take climate change a lot more seriously and treat it with great urgency.

Yes totally. I think people will put a more heavy importance on the health of the planet and everyone on it through climate, health, responsible governance, responsible corporate behavior etc... probably the only positive to come out of this but I good thing long term for us all.

You’ll also have employees saying good luck and fûck you to a whole host of unscrupulous employers, burdening and harming both the health and wellbeing of employees and our planet.

caveat emptor · 30-04-2020 05:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

We need people with proper science backgrounds informing the public.

There is a big difference between how long a virus can still be detected on a surface, and how long it is capable of infecting you.

Most cold viruses can be detected on surfaces for days, but decrease in infectiousness pretty rapidly.

Very scientific language there. Agree with your point otherwise. Again it's an unknown. Always prudent to err on the side of caution when dealing with an unknown entity. The cost of being prudent far less than the cost of being exposed to viable virus?

Care to comment on three hours in the air. I'm sure that's not viable either.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments