Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

growleaves · 30-04-2020 10:15AM

New Home · 30-04-2020 10:16AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Can't see this happening. Unenforceable to start with. How is mask even defined?

Going from a very, very, low base too. Probably less than 1% wearing masks right now. Most workers, who are currently working, including retail, are not wearing them.

It's like saying it should be against the law not to wash your hands properly.

Back when TB was rampant, people were being fined for spitting. This could be no different.

yourdeadwright · 30-04-2020 10:18AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

But they are not collecting numbers to make accurate decisions.

They have no idea who has COVID19 and who had COVID19 and who recovered.

They only have a count of Cases that the Government allowed to be tested.

Basically they have no idea and because the likes on Tony Holohan speak well people just fall for the nonsense, Its the same man who made an absolute balls of the cervical cancer scandal now he didn't even know about the cases here of Covid in February ,

People have even start giving Simon Harris credit another man who was involved in the cervical cancer scandal and only a couple of days ago thought it was the 19th strain of covid

Leo will point people in the direct that its the public fault for becoming lax in following the rules as to why the restriction are not lifted when its actually because of his governments failing in testing that we are in no position to relax things,

Leo and Co are using there greatest weakness since they've been in office (the health care system) and spinning it into there greatest achievement, When its still a mess but for the nurse and doctors putting there own behinds on the line every day even with the mess above them ,

(ok possibly there second greatest weakness after the housing crisis )

dePeatrick · 30-04-2020 10:19AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Can't see this happening. Unenforceable to start with. How is mask even defined?

Going from a very, very, low base too. Probably less than 1% wearing masks right now. Most workers, who are currently working, including retail, are not wearing them.

It's like saying it should be against the law not to wash your hands properly.

Way more than 1% wearing them now, more like 20% from what I can see.

30-04-2020 10:22AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

I just spotted the latest deaths by day-of-occurrence graph on RTE.ie

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0430/1135708-coronavirus-restrictions/

(I wouldn't know how to post that deaths-by-date graph here)

The last time I saw this, 7th April was the peak but now it's 12th April. The trend does look good even if there is a lag with the reporting.

Adding the probable cases likely shifted it

30-04-2020 10:26AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

But they are not collecting numbers to make accurate decisions.

They have no idea who has COVID19 and who had COVID19 and who recovered.

They only have a count of Cases that the Government allowed to be tested.

How quaint - believing decisions are being made on number of cases

30-04-2020 10:30AM

growleaves wrote: »

Youtube video. Only the best of sources. Infowars next?

Duke of Url · 30-04-2020 10:32AM

Deleted User wrote: »

How quaint - believing decisions are being made on number of cases

So fill me in....

How are the decisions being made?

Wombatman · 30-04-2020 10:39AM

New Home wrote: »

Back when TB was rampant, people were being fined for spitting. This could be no different.

That would be the exception not the rule. The guards aren't even wearing them.

Stand outside the GPO and you would see a few people spitting in an hour. The majority of the people wouldn't be wearing face masks.

30-04-2020 10:43AM

Wombatman wrote: »

That would be the exception not the rule. The guards aren't even wearing them.

Stand outside the GPO and you would see a few people spitting in an hour. The majority of the people wouldn't be wearing face masks.

Laws are meant to change behaviour, not reflect it.

New Home · 30-04-2020 10:44AM

What I was getting at was that if rules are put in place and enforced, people will have to comply or face the consequences. It's not unheard of.

30-04-2020 10:47AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

So fill me in....

How are the decisions being made?

ICU admissions, deaths, calculated R0, change in rate of community transmission....

Gynoid · 30-04-2020 10:52AM

Here's an idea. Diversify the economy. Legalise cannabis. All the pubs that are closed can then sell it on a takeaway basis. Revenue that came from alcohol tax to the exchequer can now be exchanged for cannabis taxes. Colorado has about the same population as us (oh I know, I know not density because they have land, lots of land, but even so Denver is only half the population density of Dublin) and Colorado are getting so much revenue returns they are putting cannabis revenue back into education and health etc. There would be spin off industries, the closed cafes could do edibles to take out, for example. And people would chill out a bit more and spit at guards less :pac: Plus smoking - it could be the new anti-covid health buzz! (I don't use it myself, just saying it could be an extra revenue stream and diversification for closed hospitality businesses.)
Hey! The old folks could be happier in their cocooning too..bloody hell, the more I think about it the more I'm a genius.

gabeeg · 30-04-2020 10:53AM

Wombatman wrote: »

That would be the exception not the rule. The guards aren't even wearing them.

Stand outside the GPO and you would see a few people spitting in an hour. The majority of the people wouldn't be wearing face masks.

They'll likely ask us to wear a mask or a face-covering of some kind if we can't get our hands on a mask.

It will be policed not only by the guards, but by the general public. It won't be a pleasant experience walking around town without a covering, with everyone glaring at you and some shouting at you.

It worked out fine in the Czech rep, and there's no reason it won't work out here

10000maniacs · 30-04-2020 11:05AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Watching sky news.

The UK are screwed.

We are not that much different to the UK. Neck and neck per capita with the UK.
Ireland would be on par Denmark or New Zealand today if 20,000 utter gob$hites didn't go to Cheltenham, get infected, come home and contaminate the whole country.

seamus · 30-04-2020 11:07AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

We are not that much different to the UK. Neck and neck per capita with the UK.
Ireland would be on par Denmark or New Zealand today if 20,000 utter gob$hites didn't go to Cheltenham get infected, come home and contaminate the whole country.

Every single sentence in this post is completely wrong. Not just slightly off, but completely detached from reality.

Dave147 · 30-04-2020 11:08AM

Arghus wrote: »

Covid is incredibly easy to contract and spread.

So, do the math. You reckon only 2% of people die from it - that's a matter of debate - but sure we'll use your projections.

So Ireland's population is 4.9 million. So 98,000 would be 2%.

Considering that this is a totally new highly infectious virus, for which there's no immunity for in the community it's not inconceivable that the of infection could potentially reach us all, quite quickly, within a few weeks.

Even if the rate of infection is only half that, that's still 50,000 deaths, within short order. Forget about hospitals being full, cemeteries will be full, people will die in their droves in their homes, to be buried in the garden by loved ones. Society won't function with that level of death happening all at once.

People going on about depression now, how do think people's mental health will be if all that comes to pass? Add a few thousand onto that death toll.

The potential for a level of horror on a simply unimaginable scale is still real, people still don't get that.

The sacrifices we have to make now are nothing - absolutely nothing - to what could potentially happen.

Posts like yours annoy me: they are absolutely idiotic. Use your brain! Think about what is at stake

It's very easy for these morons to project these moronic opinions at the moment, wait till they're burying their own mothers and fathers in their back garden and watch how fast their tune changes.

Akabusi · 30-04-2020 11:08AM

I had a VC this morning with people I work with from some of our different European offices.

A summary of our chat on the virus:

My colleague in Paris stated that France plan on easing restrictions on the 11th May. They are going to categorise areas using a colour system. Red being the most affected areas likes Paris where there will be very little change. Areas in the west of the country will be categorised as Green and will have the most restrictions lifted. There will also be a 100 km travel limit put in place.

One of my German colleagues dismissed the idea that the numbers infected there have risen due to the easing of restrictions saying it is simply to early to know.

A UK colleague thought their numbers were to spike sharply today when all the non hospital deaths were to be added in. She was informed this was done yesterday and that only confirmed covid positive cases were added in. She admitted to switching off the News the last couple of days as it was understandably getting her down.

Duke of Url · 30-04-2020 11:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

ICU admissions, deaths, calculated R0, change in rate of community transmission....

This fails at the first hurdle.

Change in rate of community transmission can only be calculated via testing ( No testing unless they allow you to get tested) (No serious symptoms no test)

Calculated R0 How do you to this without testing everyone who was contact traced. (They are not doing this.)

Deaths They are now adding people who they presumed had COVID19 without test results.

ICU admissions What % of people with COVID19 end up in ICU? (0.1% 1%, 5%, 10%)

Snow Garden · 30-04-2020 11:12AM

Akabusi wrote: »

One of my German colleagues dismissed the idea that the numbers infected there have risen due to the easing of restrictions saying it is simply to early to know.

He is correct. The incubation period would always create a lag. People jumped on the German numbers too quickly after restrictions lifted to show any correlation.

10000maniacs · 30-04-2020 11:14AM

seamus wrote: »

Every single sentence in this post is completely wrong. Not just slightly off, but completely detached from reality.

Not really, we have 241 deaths per million, they have 380 deaths per million, not that much different given margin for error.
We started getting the big numbers of cases in Ireland 2 weeks after Cheltenham. The press were pinpointing loads of clusters associated with people who came back from Cheltenham around that time (March 25-30th)
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then etc..

30-04-2020 11:17AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

This fails at the first hurdle.

Change in rate of community transmission can only be calculated via testing ( No testing unless they allow you to get tested) (No serious symptoms no test)

Calculated R0 How do you to this without testing everyone who was contact traced. (They are not doing this.)

Deaths They are now adding people who they presumed had COVID19 without test results.

ICU admissions What % of people with COVID19 end up in ICU? (0.1% 1%, 5%, 10%)

As long as testing criteria is consistent for those included in the model

wakka12 · 30-04-2020 11:17AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not really, we have 241 deaths per million, they have 380 deaths per million, not that much different given margin for error.
We started getting the big numbers of cases in Ireland 2 weeks after Cheltenham. The press were pinpointing loads of clusters associated with people who came back from Cheltenham around that time (March 25-30th)
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then etc..

It's nearly 40% more, most people would consider that significantly more

Akabusi · 30-04-2020 11:20AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not really, we have 241 deaths per million, they have 380 deaths per million not that much different given margin for error.
We started getting the big numbers of cases in Ireland 2 weeks after Cheltenham. The press were pinpointing loads of clusters associated with people who came back from Cheltenham around that time (March 25-30th)
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then etc..

Your big mistake is to compare numbers when they are being reported differently.

The UK only include people who died and were tested positive for the Virus in there numbers. The number of people who have died from this and have not yet been included will be huge.
Another thing, there is a huge difference between 241 and 380.

Please post the links to these clusters that the press pin pointed, i'm not aware of them. Thanks

martingriff · 30-04-2020 11:23AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

We are not that much different to the UK. Neck and neck per capita with the UK.
Ireland would be on par Denmark or New Zealand today if 20,000 utter gob$hites didn't go to Cheltenham, get infected, come home and contaminate the whole country.

This Cheltenham excuse is getting tiresome. It is like saying FF fault for 5 years. Do you think the majority of our cases is because of it

10000maniacs · 30-04-2020 11:26AM

Akabusi wrote: »

Your big mistake is to compare numbers when they are being reported differently.

The UK only include people who died and were tested positive for the Virus in there numbers. The number of people who have died from this and have not yet been included will be huge.
Another thing, there is a huge difference between 241 and 380.

Please post the links to these clusters that the press pin pointed, i'm not aware of them. Thanks

They have already been posted here in this thread, or the older versions. So do it yourself. Just google "Cheltenham COVID19 Ireland" and enjoy the read.
241:380 is only 40% more.

martingriff · 30-04-2020 11:31AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Not really, we have 241 deaths per million, they have 380 deaths per million, not that much different given margin for error.
We started getting the big numbers of cases in Ireland 2 weeks after Cheltenham. The press were pinpointing loads of clusters associated with people who came back from Cheltenham around that time (March 25-30th)
If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then etc..

Can you show where the press pinpointed it was with people who came back from Cheltenham

10000maniacs · 30-04-2020 11:31AM

martingriff wrote: »

This Cheltenham excuse is getting tiresome. It is like saying FF fault for 5 years. Do you think the majority of our cases is because of it

It was a major factor, regardless of how many thank buttons from racing fans are clicked here. People think getting posts thanked here is a general consensus. No it is not. Means absolutely nothing.

caveat emptor · 30-04-2020 11:32AM

Wombatman wrote: »

That would be the exception not the rule. The guards aren't even wearing them.

Stand outside the GPO and you would see a few people spitting in an hour. The majority of the people wouldn't be wearing face masks.

Yeah it's inconceivable that police would wear a mask. It's braindead that they don't.

https://twitter.com/antoabs/status/1250798912564330498?s=20

Greyian · 30-04-2020 11:35AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

They have already been posted here in this thread, or the older versions. So do it yourself. Just google "Cheltenham COVID19 Ireland" and enjoy the read.
241:380 is only 40% more.

380 is over 57% more than 241.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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