Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

peasant wrote: »

Thanks for the link to this report !

Now, I have to admit , my brain goes into total lockdown when it comes to the mathematical explanation of their different models. I don't understand it ...never mind being able to pick holes in it to explain why their figures are so different from what we're hearing.

But surely, these people do know what they are talking about...and if so, this is bloody scary:



An expected number of deaths between 1000 and 5000 for next week :eek:

Can somebody more mathematically minded perhaps explain how we think we're almost ready for easing restrictions when this says the total opposite?

I haven’t had a chance to read this report but I have a background in modelling. I’m on my phone so brief explanation. Models that can be broadly applied to several countries with various conditions should not be used for decision making at the country level. Also I’m presuming the modellers are assuming similar reporting protocols across the various countries which is not the case. If you’re going to pay attention to any model outputs, the Irish model is the one to pay attention to.

wakka12 wrote: »

This is just crazy, infection is rarer in children but thousands of children worldwide have been infected

Yeah it doesn't seem to tally up with the data. Look these guys are obviously a lot more qualified than me and I assume most on here, but they'd need to explain their findings in a lot more detail.

For now they seem to be on their own on this. The Swiss like to do things differently.

hmmm wrote: »

I'm sure it's based on sound science, and would be great news if other countries were confident enough in the same science. Whatever about grandparents, schooling and childcare are huge issues.

If it was based in sound science, this science would be shared with other authorities. Many of whom are directly contradicting the Swiss conclusions. They appear to be making a solo run on this one. I wonder is it politically motivated, as the Swiss have a slightly more aging population.

is_that_so wrote: »

They now seem to come out at random intervals. I think 55% is the percentage but open to correction on that.

Currently at 46% based on the most up to date stats, but recovery stats are now skewed because they are not measured against the probable deaths (and "recovered" is not always a reported outcome anyway).

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm after becoming a bit uneasy with how Leo has flipped the whole situation on it's head to blame the ordinary people for the continued spread. If our testing situation was sorted from the beginning we'd have caught cases way earlier and they'd arguably be a lot lower than now. Yet, rather than accept that their promise of 100,000 tests a week is complete bullsh*t, he has decided to blame the public.

In fairness there is not a shortage of people in some areas not abiding by the advice.

Why give them a free pass?

They should be criticized.

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Just to expand on this it baffles me how some people think the government and NHS are all of a sudden brilliant,

They have been awful for the past 20 years its not like they just got good over night, Seems any spin coming out of the governments mouth is whole heartily being believed,

Last night it was reported there was 4 cases here in February and like the cervical check shame the nations latest hero Tony Holohan has claimed not to know about it , Yet to many he is a national hero the last month,

Its a very strange time ,

It's probably something to do with the fact that every single close neighbour of ours (Britain / France / Spain) has suffered vast numbers of excess deaths amongst the highest in the world, while statistics show that we've suffered no excess deaths at all thanks to the responsible actions of our government.

Snow Garden wrote: »

That's just simplistic waffle to be brutally honest. Easy to say but essentially adds nothing.

How is it simplistic waffle when thats exactly what any government is proposing to do. Basically all they can do is open up gradually see what happens if it spikes then close it down again there not going to maintain an opened up gradiated economy if the virus peaks again which it will just look at Germany

Easy to fit your narrative of simplistic waffle when in essence that's exactly what they are going to do.

Shin

froog wrote: »

lockdown completely gone to sh1t in my local area - town is busy, sidewalk full of people, no one really bothering with much social distancing. my local pound shop is now open for some reason.

Because they came out last week in their modelling briefing and said community spread is zero. Now the government is saying we're not doing enough? They need to make up their minds. There's no room for uncertainty from the government in this scenario.

Deaths and cases way up in Spain this afternoon. Almost 5000 cases and over 450 deaths. Couldnt be because of the eased restrictions already could it?

quokula wrote: »

It's probably something to do with the fact that every single close neighbour of ours (Britain / France / Spain) has suffered vast numbers of excess deaths amongst the highest in the world, while statistics show that we've suffered no excess deaths at all thanks to the responsible actions of our government.

Or the responsible actions of our people , ITs the people who have stopped it spreading,

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'm after becoming a bit uneasy with how Leo has flipped the whole situation on it's head to blame the ordinary people for the continued spread. If our testing situation was sorted from the beginning we'd have caught cases way earlier and they'd arguably be a lot lower than now. Yet, rather than accept that their promise of 100,000 tests a week is complete bullsh*t, he has decided to blame the public. Where I live, people have been taking this ridiculously seriously, and it is very offputting when we're essentially being told that we're not doing enough. The government needs to accept responsibility here.

There's a middle ground here. The promise of 100,000 test per week isn't bullsh1t.

Neither was the goal of 15,000 tests per day. They were just too eager to push it as a done deal without properly thinking about how long it would take to build.

We'll have capacity for 100,000 tests per week by the third week in May. We'll be up to 10,000 tests capacity per day, by the end of this week.

The HSE needs to stand up and acknowledge that it over-promised on lab capacity, or at least that it gave the misleading impression that we could do 15,000 tests a day by early April.

And that it also over-promised on the app. Giving the impression that it would be ready to go in ten days, 30 days ago.

This doesn't mean the HSE is to blame for case numbers, but overpromising and underdelivering has been a pillar of the HSE since its inception. If we're asked to lockdown for another couple of weeks, and they don't admit that it's because the HSE has once again failed to set realistic expectations, then the lockdown is going to collapse.

If they admit, "Look, the HSE made a balls of this one. Sit tight for another week and we promise it'll be sorted", they'll be able to buy more goodwill.

seamus wrote: »

There's a middle ground here. The promise of 100,000 test per week isn't bullsh1t.

Neither was the goal of 15,000 tests per day. They were just too eager to push it as a done deal without properly thinking about how long it would take to build.

We'll have capacity for 100,000 tests per week by the third week in May. We'll be up to 10,000 tests capacity per day, by the end of this week.

The HSE needs to stand up and acknowledge that it over-promised on lab capacity, or at least that it gave the misleading impression that we could do 15,000 tests a day by early April.

And that it also over-promised on the app. Giving the impression that it would be ready to go in ten days, 30 days ago.

This doesn't mean the HSE is to blame for case numbers, but overpromising and underdelivering has been a pillar of the HSE since its inception. If we're asked to lockdown for another couple of weeks, and they don't admit that it's because the HSE has once again failed to set realistic expectations, then the lockdown is going to collapse.

If they admit, "Look, the HSE made a balls of this one. Sit tight for another week and we promise it'll be sorted", they'll be able to buy more goodwill.

But they haven't made a balls of it, by any reliable international metric we're doing incredibly well. Our excess deaths stand at zero. Our rate of testing per capita is 30% higher than Germany. We should be very proud of this. But we also shouldn't try to rush out of lockdown while that risks putting an end to all the good work.