has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

hopalongcass · 27-04-2020 07:25PM

STB. wrote: »

I probably need my head tested responding to two re-regs.

Sweden have multiples of deaths to their nearest neighbours.

One is conducting control measures. The other is not.

Yeah you're right,i won't respond to you either,because its only a matter of time before you pull out the "troll " accusation like a playschooler when you are losing on facts,take it easy my man.

Danzy · 27-04-2020 07:26PM

zvone wrote: »

Member of Italian Parliament Vittorio Sgarbi. You can take automatic translate from options, but in short he says that in Italy only 925 have died of the virus. 24,075 have died of other things!?

He is considered an almighty charlatan and bullshi7 artist though.

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 07:29PM

wakka12 wrote: »

No I do not! Nor did I ever say it would. But over the course of a year or so with the virus completely unrestricted I definitely believe at least ten million or more globally would have died.

120,000(significantly more in reality) in Europe in just 6 weeks, with massive lockdown.The EU is just 5% of the world population. Very easy to imagine 10 million or a similar figure would die in a year

The WHO did say so though, which is the evidence that the response has been blown out of proportion.

You have no evidence that lockdown has saved a single life. Correlation does not equal causation. Giesecke made a strong alternative case but probably nobody's bothered listening to a eminent epidemiologist. Ireland and Swedish deaths/M now similar with different approaches.

In the absence of a vaccine, those 10M are gonna die anyway. Lockdown just delays their deaths. Obviously if ICU's are overrun, lockdown helps.

How does your concern for 10M Corona virus deaths outweigh 125m people facing starvation?

STB. · 27-04-2020 07:30PM

hopalongcass wrote: »

Yeah you're right,i won't respond to you either,because its only a matter of time before you pull out the "troll " accusation like a playschooler when you are losing on facts,take it easy my man.

You have no facts. You need to be corrected, in case you try and fill someone else with your nonsense.

Sweden as a posterboy for do nothing has long since been debunked. Their death rates are multiples of their nearest neighbours who didnt experiment on their own people. The whole of the Nordic Countries combined that have aprox 6 million more people than the population of Sweden have less deaths.

Jog on (within 2k mind).

hopalongcass · 27-04-2020 07:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

No , no. The president has publicly stated that infection and death rate is underreported. Ecuador reported over 11,000 new cases two days ago

Personally i find it dubious to use unreported death rates by the government in power in the propagande battle,hes in power its his responsibility to test.

They have tested over 20k in ecuador with 500 deaths surely if they could afford to test so many they are able to provide enough tests on every death that is not caused by accident or murder.

Also we are basing everything we do on models and facts and graphs we can't then when the model doesn't suit say oh well actually no lots are going unreported.We either rely on facts or we don't.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 07:36PM

hopalongcass wrote: »

Personally i find it dubious to use unreported death rates by the government in power in the propagande battle,hes in power its his responsibility to test.

They have tested over 20k in ecuador with 500 deaths surely if they could afford to test so many they are able to provide enough tests on every death that is not caused by accident or murder.

Also we are basing everything we do on models and facts and graphs we can't then when the model doesn't suit say oh well actually no lots are going unreported.We either rely on facts or we don't.

And you are not relying on facts. Youre claiming the word of the doctor who said 39% of New Yorkers are infected based on the fact 39% of people in testing centres have the virus has some validity.
When the actual facts, a large scale unbiased antibody test, in New York showed infection rates of 14% for the state.
That docotor's assumptions are about as far away from fact as we are going to get in this discussion.

I will take the word of the president of Ecuador that the situation in Ecaudor is bad rather than dubious boards posters who have never even visited the country. Anyway its not just the word of the government
Deaths in Ecuador are 7500 above monthly average. 15x higher than the reported death toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 07:38PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

The WHO did say so though, which is the evidence that the response has been blown out of proportion.

You have no evidence that lockdown has saved a single life. Correlation does not equal causation. Giesecke made a strong alternative case but probably nobody's bothered listening to a eminent epidemiologist. Ireland and Swedish deaths/M now similar with different approaches.

In the absence of a vaccine, those 10M are gonna die anyway. Lockdown just delays their deaths. Obviously if ICU's are overrun, lockdown helps.

How does your concern for 10M Corona virus deaths outweigh 125m people facing starvation?

And that is exactly why the lockdown was implemented

But yes, regarding the last line of the post, I agree the cure is now looking worse than the disease.

hopalongcass · 27-04-2020 07:46PM

wakka12 wrote: »

And you are not relying on facts. Youre claiming the word of the doctor who said 39% of New Yorkers are infected based on the fact 39% of people in testing centres have the virus has some validity.
When the actual facts, a large scale unbiased antibody test, in New York showed infection rates of 14% for the state.

I will take the word of the president of Ecuador that the situation in Ecaudor is bad rather than dubious boards posters who have never even visited the country.

I never claimed the word of any doctor as being fact,i said he was worth listening to and spoke some common sense points.

Check back my posts its pretty clear i said i didn't stand over all his numbers,but don't let facts get in the way of you trying to win an argument you never did before,backpedalling and moving goalposts is never a good sign.

I will leave it there before you back yourself into a worse corner.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 07:46PM

Sweden is not doing amazingly. It is certainly not as bad as we thought it was going to get but it has average 63 deaths per day for a solid month now.

If Sweden was the size as Italy that would be nearly 400 deaths daily. Not exactly brilliant

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 07:47PM

wakka12 wrote: »

And you are not relying on facts. Youre claiming the word of the doctor who said 39% of New Yorkers are infected based on the fact 39% of people in testing centres have the virus has some validity.
When the actual facts, a large scale unbiased antibody test, in New York showed infection rates of 14% for the state.
That docotor's assumptions are about as far away from fact as we are going to get in this discussion.

I will take the word of the president of Ecuador that the situation in Ecaudor is bad rather than dubious boards posters who have never even visited the country. Anyway its not just the word of the government
Deaths in Ecuador are 7500 above monthly average. 15x higher than the reported death toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html

Prof Ferguson, Iperial college, has New York down for an IFR of 0.8-0.6.

In almost every instance, as more data comes in, that IFR is falling.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 07:53PM

hopalongcass wrote: »

I never claimed the word of any doctor as being fact,i said he was worth listening to and spoke some common sense points.

Check back my posts its pretty clear i said i didn't stand over all his numbers,but don't let facts get in the way of you trying to win an argument you never did before,backpedalling and moving goalposts is never a good sign.

I will leave it there before you back yourself into a worse corner.

I said you claimed their word had some validity. You've referred to several of the points made by the doctors as 'common sense'.

hopalongcass wrote: »

Its common sense,i already felt this to be true myself and now i have an expert who has dedicated his life to this exact subject saying that same thing.

wakka12 · 27-04-2020 07:55PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

Prof Ferguson, Iperial college, has New York down for an IFR of 0.8-0.6.

In almost every instance, as more data comes in, that IFR is falling.

And? 0.6-0.8 is well within range of what has been claimed to be the IFR for a very long time now.

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 07:56PM

wakka12 wrote: »

And that is exactly why the lockdown was implemented

But yes, regarding the last line of the post, I agree the cure is now looking worse than the disease.

This is the crux of it now. It's why i believe lockdown to be a failed strategy. Its a playbook with no endgame. Sweden's policy has a beginning, middle and end.

Every other country in Europe is basically scratching its hole, and waiting to see what everyone else does next.

It's the first of May in a few days and Brody is gonna have to open the beaches.

abff · 27-04-2020 08:34PM

growleaves wrote: »

Lockdown is a radical and destructive policy which require lots of post-facto justification. Making covid seem deadlier than it is provides part of that justification.

So are you attributing some kind of evil motivation to those who say that we should be in lockdown? Are they doing it for personal gain? Or to exercise some form of totalitarian control over people for despotic reasons?

I'm sorry, but the above argument just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me.

gormdubhgorm · 27-04-2020 08:59PM

zvone wrote: »

Member of Italian Parliament Vittorio Sgarbi. You can take automatic translate from options, but in short he says that in Italy only 925 have died of the virus. 24,075 have died of other things!?

So is he the Italian's version of Danny Healy-Rae?

cooperguy · 27-04-2020 09:06PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

Every other country in Europe is basically scratching its hole, and waiting to see what everyone else does next.

Why are you saying things that are obviously false? Countries are already unwinding lockdowns. Ireland is publishing its plan in the next few days. You're starting to sound a little silly

Risteard81 · 27-04-2020 09:06PM

wakka12 wrote: »

And how do the state benefit by continuing this apparently unnecessary totalitarian regime?

Its really not simple at all, youre implying some kind of mass global conspiracy theory coordinated simultanouesly by all world governments for reasons unknown

Partly out of populism due to people on social media demanding totalitarianism, and as with totalitarianism generally a large part is to exercise control.

Don't forget Leo the Liar was evicted from office and Regina Doherty is actually supposed to be on the Bru because she was so despised. And yet this unelected junta perpetuates indefinitely and with dictatorial powers.

cryptocurrency · 27-04-2020 09:07PM

Danzy wrote: »

He is considered an almighty charlatan and bullshi7 artist though.

Based on wiki

flazio · 27-04-2020 09:10PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Partly out of populism due to people on social media demanding totalitarianism, and as with totalitarianism generally a large part is to exercise control.

Don't forget Leo the Liar was evicted from office and Regina Doherty is actually supposed to be on the Bru because she was so despised. And yet this unelected junta perpetuates indefinitely and with dictatorial powers.

Well I didn't see anybody else go through the proper channels to oust him and do a better job. Did you?

STB. · 27-04-2020 09:20PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

Prof Ferguson, Iperial college, has New York down for an IFR of 0.8-0.6.

In almost every instance, as more data comes in, that IFR is falling.

IFR cannot be determined without wild guessing or serology tests that actually randomly test people for previous presence. The very IFR datasets will vary rapidly otherwise and are then worthless.

Given you are the poster who asked the question - "Why can you not figure out that lockdown has no effect on IFR" I don't expect you will be able to comprehend that, because that's exactly why using figures from one area and applying them globally is useless.

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 09:20PM

cooperguy wrote: »

Why are you saying things that are obviously false? Countries are already unwinding lockdowns. Ireland is publishing its plan in the next few days. You're starting to sound a little silly

Nothing false about it. No one of them will provide a comprehensive document detailing their full strategy to completion going forward because they can't.

It's just baby steps and see how it goes. They're almost equally warning about a potential second spike.

Reason being. They're basically trying to move to the Swedish model hoping nobody notices, because all the new data is showing that they should change tack.

STB. · 27-04-2020 09:28PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Partly out of populism due to people on social media demanding totalitarianism, and as with totalitarianism generally a large part is to exercise control.

Don't forget Leo the Liar was evicted from office and Regina Doherty is actually supposed to be on the Bru because she was so despised. And yet this unelected junta perpetuates indefinitely and with dictatorial powers.

Populism, totalitarianism, and exercise control all in the one sentence.

We are in the middle of a pandemic. It requires critical healthy measures to keep the loonies off the streets.

HeidiHeidi · 27-04-2020 09:30PM

STB. wrote: »

Populism, totalitarianism, and exercise control all in the one sentence.

We are in the middle of a pandemic. It requires critical healthy measures to keep the loonies off the streets.

If only the loonies could be kept out of these threads.....

Jinglejangle69 · 27-04-2020 09:31PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Partly out of populism due to people on social media demanding totalitarianism, and as with totalitarianism generally a large part is to exercise control.

Don't forget Leo the Liar was evicted from office and Regina Doherty is actually supposed to be on the Bru because she was so despised. And yet this unelected junta perpetuates indefinitely and with dictatorial powers.

Blame SF for not forming a government with the massive mandate they were given.

cooperguy · 27-04-2020 09:37PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

Nothing false about it. No one of them will provide a comprehensive document detailing their full strategy to completion going forward because they can't.

It's just baby steps and see how it goes. They're almost equally warning about a potential second spike.

Reason being. They're basically trying to move to the Swedish model hoping nobody notices, because all the new data is showing that they should change tack.

That's rubbish, you cant provide a black and white plan when you're working in grey. They are taking baby steps, monitoring the impact and continuing to take steps.

If the Swedish model (which is basically to have many more deaths than your neighbours) was an ideal strategy then they would take it. You'd make a poor politician, can you not see how that would work if it was viable? Leo would come out and say "We have had it tough, we locked down hard, prepared our health service, nationalised the private beds, flew in tonnes of gear from China. We are now ready to re-open" They would then reopen, the system would cope (just about, since its on a knife edge at the best of times with some of the lowest capacity in the EU), everyone would feel like they came through something together and Varadkar would walk away a hero who got Ireland through a crisis.

It would be like how he dealt with Brexit (and that boost in popularity), but on steroids. Except almost nobody believes the Swedish model would work, so they are not going to do it.

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 09:39PM

STB. wrote: »

IFR cannot be determined without wild guessing or serology tests that actually randomly test people for previous presence. The very IFR datasets will vary rapidly otherwise and are then worthless.

Given you are the poster who asked the question - "Why can you not figure out that lockdown has no effect on IFR" I don't expect you will be able to comprehend that, because that's exactly why using figures from one area and applying them globally is useless.

As more data comes in the IFR will regrees towards the mean everywhere. It's well established at this stage that it's below 1.

As more data comes in the models become more accurate and that figure is falling. 0.8 to 0.6 as per Cuomo in NYC.

The IFR for 100 infected people in Ireland will be roughly the same as the IFR for 100 infected people in Sweden, Iceland or China.

That's just the way it is. No wild guessing about it, whatever kind of scientist you are.

sheepysheep · 27-04-2020 09:50PM

cooperguy wrote: »

That's rubbish, you cant provide a black and white plan when you're working in grey. They are taking baby steps, monitoring the impact and continuing to take steps.

If the Swedish model (which is basically to have many more deaths than your neighbours) was an ideal strategy then they would take it. You'd make a poor politician, can you not see how that would work if it was viable? Leo would come out and say "We have had it tough, we locked down hard, prepared our health service, nationalised the private beds, flew in tonnes of gear from China. We are now ready to re-open" They would then reopen, the system would cope (just about, since its on a knife edge at the best of times with some of the lowest capacity in the EU), everyone would feel like they came through something together and Varadkar would walk away a hero who got Ireland through a crisis.

You think the Swedes sat down together and said, "Our main Goal is to have a model that delivers more deaths than our neighbours?"

They looked at the data and made a decision, that seems to be driving a large percentage of posters demented because it refuses to fail.

They are level with us and better than, UK, France,Spain,Italy,Belgium,Holland on deaths/M.

Denmark are better but not to the degree that an absence of total lockdown would suggest.

The main difference between Norway and Sweden is the Nursing homes, which are smaller in size in Norway, and so an outbreak is less catastrophic.

All around Europe, the Nurseing homes have a been a disaster. But the 2 boys in the video get lamblasted for suggesting that its a waste of time to quarantine the healthy rather than quarantining the sick.

pjohnson · 27-04-2020 09:54PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

They looked at the data and made a decision, that seems to be driving a large percentage of posters demented because it refuses to fail.

They are level with us and better than, UK, France,Spain,Italy,Belgium,Holland on deaths/M.

Denmark are better but not to the degree that an absence of total lockdown would suggest.

:pac:

STB. · 27-04-2020 09:59PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

As more data comes in the IFR will regrees towards the mean everywhere. It's well established at this stage that it's below 1.

As more data comes in the models become more accurate and that figure is falling. 0.8 to 0.6 as per Cuomo in NYC.

The IFR for 100 infected people in Ireland will be roughly the same as the IFR for 100 infected people in Sweden, Iceland or China.

That's just the way it is. No wild guessing about it, whatever kind of scientist you are.

Good Jesus. All of that is wrong. All of it.

Go back to your homework.

cooperguy · 27-04-2020 10:02PM

sheepysheep wrote: »

You think the Swedes sat down together and said, "Our main Goal is to have a model that delivers more deaths than our neighbours?"

They looked at the data and made a decision, that seems to be driving a large percentage of posters demented because it refuses to fail.

They are level with us and better than, UK, France,Spain,Italy,Belgium,Holland on deaths/M.

Denmark are better but not to the degree that an absence of total lockdown would suggest.

The main difference between Norway and Sweden is the Nursing homes, which are smaller in size in Norway, and so an outbreak is less catastrophic.

All around Europe, the Nurseing homes have a been a disaster. But the 2 boys in the video get lamblasted for suggesting that its a waste of time to quarantine the healthy rather than quarantining the sick.

I guess you'll just ignore the main point of my post then

has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

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