Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

bekker · 23-04-2020 04:50PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Your attachments aren't working, so it's hard to know exactly what you're referring to, but it's no surprise that the male (26) and female (18) numbers don't add up to the total (49), give that all along the gender of deaths has not always been reported. Looking at the gender breakdown on the dashboard up until the 20th, there's 56 unknowns.

https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

1. Embedded images.

2. If you look closely you'll see that the breakdown of deaths is identical for Tues and Wed, F/M 26/18, median age 87, and underlying health conditions 33 are also identical.
The only figure that differs is total deaths of 730 for Tues and [730+49 for Wed, less 10 discounted from some date/s, giving 769 total to date.

I examined the page source for both pages yesterday and both had 'Locations of Deaths' sections with identical figures, except Tues stated 44 new deaths and Wed 49, the 'Locations of Deaths' section has since been edited out of Wednesday's page.

What Username Guidelines · 23-04-2020 04:52PM

is_that_so wrote: »

No backlog is what they've been saying so that means up to date. They are testing in nursing homes at present so you can definitely expect numbers there.

No backlog, capacity for 10,000 a day but doing less as less demand

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253249924709388288

It could be down to strict case definition (temp + resp symptoms) who knows. Could be the real calm before the storm, unlikely with most (at the moment) obeying restrictions.

Apparently one of the covid wards in Vincents has emptied also, not an official source, but a friend that works there.

keynes · 23-04-2020 04:54PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just heard Simon Harris say the R has dropped again to between 0.5 and 0.7
Good news

Nolan must be finding it increasingly hard to stand by such estimates. For example, I know of two households who all had it and they never got tested. It's conceivable that as the symptoms (like lack of taste etc) become more widely known, then people will just not get tested since there's little point anyway. So unless there is random testing, this makes it virtually impossible to ascertain the prevalence of the virus.

tobefrank321 · 23-04-2020 04:54PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's a team of people from various universities working to create a model. Like any model it's based on their best estimate.

The R is definitely below 1 as we can see hospitalisations and ICU numbers falling.

I can't see how they can make a determination based on community cases as they are only testing a fraction of community cases based on restricted eligibility. So its likely they are making the determination based on a fall in hospitalisations and ICU numbers.

Still doesn't tell us how many cases are out there though, so using it alone as a determination to ease restrictions won't work.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 04:55PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

No backlog, capacity for 10,000 a day but doing less as less demand

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253249924709388288

It could be down to strict case definition (temp + resp symptoms) who knows. Could be the real calm before the storm, unlikely with most (at the moment) obeying restrictions.

Apparently one of the covid wards in Vincents has emptied also, not an official source, but a friend that works there.

The next bit you'd imagine is a broadening of the definition, probably after they've done with the NHs, maybe from next week.

polesheep · 23-04-2020 04:56PM

Alan Kelly asked important questions in the Dail today. Questions that have been going around in my head for weeks.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/who-is-nphet-ultimately-accountable-to-questions-on-transparency-during-crisis-raised-in-dail-995764.html

spookwoman · 23-04-2020 04:59PM

bekker wrote: »

Posted yesterday regarding inaccuracies in the gov.ie release for 22nd Apr.

Their response has NOT been to correct the figures for the geographical distribution of deaths, they simply deleted that section from their webpage.

With their usual breathtaking incompetence they left in the following section which still shows the Tuesday 21st figures for males v females.

This raises the suspicion that the figures for 22nd Apr. are screwed up as it would have been so easy to just put in the corrected figures for both sections.

26 + 18 <> 49

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/#the-latest-news-as-of-6pm-on-wednesday-22-april-2020

ON THAT PAGE IF YOU CLICK ON Read the county-by-county breakdowns and the press release here. it will list stats as well with the amount of unknowns.

But yes there have been a few miscalcs on the site. Imjust going through it now and putting into spreadsheet to make some sense

ACitizenErased · 23-04-2020 05:01PM

https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1253344181608734720?s=20
I expect the case definition to be broadened next week or the week after. We're moving into the mass testing stage.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 05:02PM

polesheep wrote: »

Alan Kelly asked important questions in the Dail today. Questions that have been going around in my head for weeks.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/who-is-nphet-ultimately-accountable-to-questions-on-transparency-during-crisis-raised-in-dail-995764.html

MoH convenes it, it seems.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/healthwellbeing/our-priority-programmes/hcai/european-antibiotics-awareness-day/public-health-emergency/

EDIT: There's also a Wikipedia entry so Kelly just being lazy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Public_Health_Emergency_Team

namloc1980 · 23-04-2020 05:03PM

is_that_so wrote: »

No backlog is what they've been saying so that means up to date. They are testing in nursing homes at present so you can definitely expect numbers there.

So had some symptoms last weekend. Went for a test on Monday and no result yet. Was told at the testing site they were up to date and results within 48 hours. Still waiting. I think they are spoofing to the media about being up to date and having a faster turnaround.

ACitizenErased · 23-04-2020 05:05PM

Preliminary results of antibody testing in New York showed 14% of New Yorkers have antibodies for COVID-19.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 05:05PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

So had some symptoms last weekend. Went for a test on Monday and no result yet. Was told at the testing site they were up to date and results within 48 hours. Still waiting. I think they are spoofing to the media about being up to date and having a faster turnaround.

I think you should pick up the phone and stop venting on the internet!

namloc1980 · 23-04-2020 05:05PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I think you should pick up the phone and stop venting on the internet!

Hardly venting. Take it easy bud.

Gregor Samsa · 23-04-2020 05:06PM

bekker wrote: »

1. Embedded images.

Your embedded images (which are boards attachments, so no need to correct me for calling them that) aren't working. When I reply to you and look at the URL of the attachment you're trying to embed, take out the URL and pop it in a browser window, it says "Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator".

New Home · 23-04-2020 05:07PM

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Interesting (two week old) article on mask ventilators / intubation:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

What’s driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they’re not gasping for air, their hearts aren’t racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of oxygen.

An ICU anaesthetist (no, not in Ireland, and no, I don't have a link) told me she has seen patients walking in with a PaO2 of 26. She described this disease as science-fiction. She says this is nothing like anyone has ever seen before.

zinfandel · 23-04-2020 05:09PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Never, not in my world, Dentist, Hygienist, orthodontist , i don't recall them wearing them, unless it was simply something I never noticed due to fact it wasn't an obsession back then.

all staff have always worn masks in my dental surgery...

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 05:09PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Hardly venting. Take it easy bud.

I'm perfectly fine thanks. If someone tells me 48 hours and I'm now heading for day 4 they can expect me to contact them.

Supercell · 23-04-2020 05:14PM

New Home wrote: »

An ICU anaesthetist (no, not in Ireland, and no, I don't have a link) told me she has seen patients walking in with a PaO2 of 26. She described this disease as science-fiction. She says this is nothing like anyone has ever seen before.

I've read that this is because the lungs initially don't stiffen up and are still exhaling co2 that the brain doesn't register that its chronically short of oxygen and start shutting down things. Typically the patients are breathing very fast and shallow breaths without realising it and that's a telltale sign that something is very awry. Its why we saw all those people keeling over in Wuhan on twitter a while back, the body simply doesnt realise its critically short of oxygen until too late and people just keel over.

speckle · 23-04-2020 05:15PM

New Home wrote: »

An ICU anaesthetist (no, not in Ireland, and no, I don't have a link) told me she has seen patients walking in with a PaO2 of 26. She described this disease as science-fiction. She says this is nothing like anyone has ever seen before.

Its like we could breathe unaided in water or as an embryo or in polluted air?bloody weird

omerin · 23-04-2020 05:19PM

Looking ahead, they need to ramp up of the flu vaccine for the coming season and everyone who is fit an healthy to take it should. This will save resources.

Just a thought and to hammer the point through, the churches should ring their bells once for every soul lost each day at a set time. It should be seen as a mark of respect and remind those ignoring the rules or getting complacent. The reason I say this is that I live opposite a large park and the amount of walkers, runners, cyclists is unbelievable. In addition the amount of cars parking is way too high, do they not understand that the exercise limit is 2km and you shouldn't need to drive to your exercise location ffs.

General point that pisses me off is people speaking to one or more on a path generally situate themselves on opposite sides of the path and a lot of people walk between them! Worse still when this is in a park and there is a ****ing field that they could move to

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 05:20PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Preliminary results of antibody testing in New York showed 14% of New Yorkers have antibodies for COVID-19.

Would put the mortality rate for COVID at roughly 0.7%, assuming it was performed on residents throughout the state. If it was performed within NYC alone then it is around 0.9%.

joe_99 · 23-04-2020 05:29PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1253344181608734720?s=20
I expect the case definition to be broadened next week or the week after. We're moving into the mass testing stage.

Let's hope so. More mild cases will be identified.

But be ready for the meltdown in this thread.

ek motor · 23-04-2020 05:31PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Would put the mortality rate for COVID at roughly 0.7%, assuming it was performed on residents throughout the state. If it was performed within NYC alone then it is around 0.9%.

From Worldometers:

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people in New York State found a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (and 21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

BorneTobyWilde · 23-04-2020 05:33PM

zinfandel wrote: »

all staff have always worn masks in my dental surgery...

Probably something I just never noticed since it wasn't an obsession .

redarmy · 23-04-2020 05:35PM

REAKING: Sadly, a further 28 people are known to have died from #Covid19 in the Republic. 936 new cases confirmed today too. It now brings the death toll to 794 & the number of confirmed cases stands at 17,607

joe_99 · 23-04-2020 05:36PM

ek motor wrote: »

From Worldometers:

New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people in New York State found a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (and 21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78%

Very interesting.

Reinforces why comparisons between countries are useless. You could add 2.7m to the USA total in one swoop there.

redarmy · 23-04-2020 05:38PM

COVID19ireland: A daily record for the number of new cases being reported - the Dept of Health says there have been 936 new confirmed cases, bringing the total to 17,607

ninebeanrows · 23-04-2020 05:38PM

936 is a big number. They must be getting deep into the care homes now.

owlbethere · 23-04-2020 05:38PM

Supercell wrote: »

I've read that this is because the lungs initially don't stiffen up and are still exhaling co2 that the brain doesn't register that its chronically short of oxygen and start shutting down things. Typically the patients are breathing very fast and shallow breaths without realising it and that's a telltale sign that something is very awry. Its why we saw all those people keeling over in Wuhan on twitter a while back, the body simply doesnt realise its critically short of oxygen until too late and people just keel over.

What is causing this? Is the disease starving the body of oxygen?

Gael23 · 23-04-2020 05:39PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

936 is a big number. They must be getting deep into the care homes now.

More than half those cases are in residential care settings

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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