Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Outlaw Pete · 23-04-2020 04:14PM

Interesting (two week old) article on mask ventilators / intubation:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

timmy_mallet · 23-04-2020 04:14PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you definitive proof of this? You did hear the claims that people got infected again?

Point of order (again): There is no definitive proof of anything.

timmy_mallet · 23-04-2020 04:14PM

eagle eye wrote: »

So.you have no definitive proof?

See above.

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 04:14PM

Brycen Round Symbol wrote: »

I agree, I think it's definitely a strong possibility but a lot of people don't want to hear that or even entertain the idea.

I do think in my case that part of it is wishful thinking, its already been around for longer/we've already had it and got through it etc etc.

There was a thread on boards back in December around the time of the big flu outbreak that makes for interesting reading:

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041781

Nobody is entertaining the idea because there is no proof, which makes the possibility not strong at all.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/821723-europe-seasonal-influenza-2019-2020-ecdc-who
Influenza activity in Ireland was low throughout all weeks of winter 2019/20 except for one week when activity was moderate

Away With The Fairies · 23-04-2020 04:14PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

if so many people were impacted , why are people only dying now after spreading around the world n a clear and traceable manner

Probably because people dying a couple of months ago was put down to the flu.

timmy_mallet · 23-04-2020 04:15PM

eagle eye wrote: »

So.you have no definitive proof?

And your understanding of science and proof seems to have fundamental gaps.

podgeandrodge · 23-04-2020 04:15PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I hit space bar in word ''Therapists ''

We believe you.

eagle eye · 23-04-2020 04:19PM

timmy_mallet wrote:

Point of order (again): There is no definitive proof of anything.

Yes, but you made a statement of fact that if one gets infected and recovers they are immune. You don't know that.

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 04:21PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Probably because people dying a couple of months ago was put down to the flu.

But as you see now in recent weeks COVID has resulted in a 50% increase in the daily national mortality rates in the country. If it was here months ago, it would be very obvious

23-04-2020 04:21PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Probably because people dying a couple of months ago was put down to the flu.

And we all know there was a massive spike on flu deaths worldwide over the winter..oh no, there wasn't

hmmm · 23-04-2020 04:21PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1253340256469872647

speckle · 23-04-2020 04:23PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The Irish Blood Transfusion Service is starting work on convalescent plasma therapy! Using antibodies from recovered patients to treat the very ill.

https://twitter.com/Cormac_Sheridan/status/1253336094134816771

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1247538182066864130

Bettet late then never. receiving plasma for covid 19 has a small window and we should have been doing this when the icu rayes were high.
And we need the anitbody tests up and going also asap.

Gregor Samsa · 23-04-2020 04:25PM

bekker wrote: »

Posted yesterday regarding inaccuracies in the gov.ie release for 22nd Apr.

Their response has NOT been to correct the figures for the geographical distribution of deaths, they simply deleted that section from their webpage.

With their usual breathtaking incompetence they left in the following section which still shows the Tuesday 21st figures for males v females.

This raises the suspicion that the figures for 22nd Apr. are screwed up as it would have been so easy to just put in the corrected figures for both sections.

26 + 18 <> 49

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/#the-latest-news-as-of-6pm-on-wednesday-22-april-2020

Your attachments aren't working, so it's hard to know exactly what you're referring to, but it's no surprise that the male (26) and female (18) numbers don't add up to the total (49), give that all along the gender of deaths has not always been reported. Looking at the gender breakdown on the dashboard up until the 20th, there's 56 unknowns.

https://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/29dc1fec79164c179d18d8e53df82e96

washman3 · 23-04-2020 04:27PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Ok enough of the "I think I had cv19 back in October" type posts.

Cv19 is a highly contagious lethal disease for many people and the earlier strains could give pneumonia to even a healthy person. Had it been here late last year you'd have seen the current nursing home crisis in January with massive numbers of deaths then. So it wasn't here late last year.
It came from Italy, Austria or Netherlands in February.

Anything you had before then was not covid 19.

Good man yourself.
A party political broadcast on behalf of the CCP. :P

Away With The Fairies · 23-04-2020 04:31PM

wakka12 wrote: »

But as you see now in recent weeks COVID has resulted in a doubling of the daily national mortality rates in the country. If it was here months ago, it would be very obvious

Maybe things wasn't reported on because they thought it was just a flu...

I really don't know. I'm not someone who can say it was or wasn't here. Nobody knows.

speckle · 23-04-2020 04:32PM

tromtipp wrote: »

It is interesting though that despite there being low levels of (tested, verified) Influenza, some hospitals were at their most crowded ever this winter. https://www.thejournal.ie/uhl-visiting-ban-flu-4954883-Jan2020/ http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=26998 . There was something sending excess numbers into hospital in January, and local anecdote in the mid-west said it was respiratory infections - there were lots of dark jokes shading into open speculation about the 'Chinese flu'.

in the south west up 10 people had a possible virus that affected them neurologically/paraylsis like in legs and arms. All 20ish to 50ish. alot of strange things going around, probably always.

tobefrank321 · 23-04-2020 04:32PM

washman3 wrote: »

Good man yourself.
A party political broadcast on behalf of the CCP. :P

Have you scientific proof it was here in December?

And my cousins friends mother couldn't shake off a bad cough doesn't count.

To be honest, people like you are starting to look foolish and not fully understanding the science and exponential spread of covid19.

Had it been here in December, without restrictions and with events such as Christmas which are notorious for spreading viruses, we would by 1st March be looking at cases in the tens if not hundreds of thousands.

So far after two months of testing we've come up with 16,000 cases.

So yeh over to you, proof rather than speculation please.

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 04:32PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Maybe things wasn't reported on because they thought it was just a flu...

I really don't know. I'm not someone who can say it was or wasn't here. Nobody knows.

Perhaps but the large increase in mortality rates would not go unnoticed. This is a well run country in that regard,with no deaths going unregistered, any sharp increase in deaths from respirtory disease would be very quickly noticed

timmy_mallet · 23-04-2020 04:33PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes, but you made a statement of fact that if one gets infected and recovers they are immune. You don't know that.

Might be worth to read the sentence again.

iamwhoiam · 23-04-2020 04:33PM

Just heard Simon Harris say the R has dropped again to between 0.5 and 0.7
Good news

owlbethere · 23-04-2020 04:34PM

This is an Australian news piece from last year, Aug 2019 (winter time there).

It was about the flu. Describing similar symptoms to what others had here.

Do what others had here during our winter was probably a flu. Unless if the virus was circulating in Australia last year but that's probably doubtful. Surely it would have been discovered before the Chinese discovered it in January.

23-04-2020 04:34PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Maybe things wasn't reported on because they thought it was just a flu...

I really don't know. I'm not someone who can say it was or wasn't here. Nobody knows.

Oh its just flu, lets just not report those extra couple of thousand deaths

Pdoghue · 23-04-2020 04:35PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just heard Simon Harris say the R has dropped again to between 0.5 and 0.7
Good news

But seriously, how can they know for sure what the R rate is? It's just been calculated surely on a very crude basis?

tobefrank321 · 23-04-2020 04:37PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just heard Simon Harris say the R has dropped again to between 0.5 and 0.7
Good news

I'd like to see the numbers published that prove this to be the case.

Maybe he will publish the new community cases from a certain day a couple weeks ago and the same for a more recent day.

Our testing of community cases appears to be minimal at present. The eligibility to be tested does not appear to include picking it up in the community.

Holohan has also said most healthcare workers picked up their infections outside work environment.

There's just no clarity to the numbers.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 04:40PM

Pdoghue wrote: »

But seriously, how can they know for sure what the R rate is? It's just been calculated surely on a very crude basis?

Philip Nolan will be at the briefing tonight. Listen to what he has to say about it.

hmmm · 23-04-2020 04:41PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I'd like to see the numbers published that prove this to be the case.

There's a team of people from various universities working to create a model. Like any model it's based on their best estimate.

The R is definitely below 1 as we can see hospitalisations and ICU numbers falling.

rm212 · 23-04-2020 04:41PM

Pdoghue wrote: »

But seriously, how can they know for sure what the R rate is? It's just been calculated surely on a very crude basis?

There’s no way to accurately estimate this with such certainty that the margin of error is just 0.2 (0.5 to 0.7)

I think he said 0.5 to 1.0, which is instead of the 0.7 to 1.0. I think it’s more likely to be a case of them finding another different way to mathematically model it and it has a lower lower bound than the previous methods, which now allows them to say 0.5 to 1.0 instead.

Below 1.0 is very likely to be true, but I don’t think we can draw much more certainty from the estimates, the margin of error is too big on these models to measure small changes. That’d be my thoughts on it, but to make more conclusions we’d all have to see where they’re getting these models from and they haven’t told us anything other than the final number so we can’t really say much for sure. It’ll definitely be interesting to see the briefing later for more info.

PokeHerKing · 23-04-2020 04:45PM

Do we know how long ago the daily reported cases were tested? Is it 2 weeks ago or 2 days ago?

If its 2 days ago and we're getting 6/700 new cases with virtually zero community transmission they are saying these are all from health workers/care homes/ family transmission yes?

Seems quite high still for what you would presume should be controlled environments.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 04:48PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

How long ago where the daily cases tested does anyone know? Is it 2 weeks ago or 2 days ago?

If its 2 days ago and we're getting 6/700 new cases with virtually zero community transmission they are saying these are all from health workers/care homes/ family transmission yes?

Seems quite high still for what you would presume should be controlled environments.

No backlog is what they've been saying so that means up to date. They are testing in nursing homes at present so you can definitely expect numbers there.

iamwhoiam · 23-04-2020 04:48PM

Pdoghue wrote: »

But seriously, how can they know for sure what the R rate is? It's just been calculated surely on a very crude basis?

I have absolutely no idea . I was only relaying what the man said

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments