Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

New Home · 22-04-2020 03:10PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I add Dettol to my anti bac wipes

Again, check on the Dettox bottle - if it says kills viruses including Coronavirus you're good to go, but check also in what concentration

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Unfortunately relying on stomach acid to get rid of Coronaviruses means food has to pass through the mouth first (which we all should know is a No No)

And let's not forget it's been found in faeces, too. If could have "filtered" through the guts, but it could just as easily have travelled through the stomach.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There are many more stories like this in the US particularly involving preachers who believe God will protect them. Hardly surprising given they continue to allow big congregations in their churches in defiance.

Reminds me of this old joke:

It had been raining for days and days, and a terrible flood had come over the land. The waters rose so high that one man was forced to climb onto the roof of his house.

As the waters rose higher and higher, a man in a rowboat appeared, and told him to get in. "No," replied the man on the roof. "I have faith in the Lord; the Lord will save me." So the man in the rowboat went away. The man on the roof prayed for God to save him.

The waters rose higher and higher, and suddenly a speedboat appeared. "Climb in!" shouted a man in the boat. "No," replied the man on the roof. "I have faith in the Lord; the Lord will save me." So the man in the speedboat went away. The man on the roof prayed for God to save him.

The waters continued to rise. A helicopter appeared and over the loudspeaker, the pilot announced he would lower a rope to the man on the roof. "No," replied the man on the roof. "I have faith in the Lord; the Lord will save me." So the helicopter went away. The man on the roof prayed for God to save him.

The waters rose higher and higher, and eventually they rose so high that the man on the roof was washed away, and alas, the poor man drowned.

Upon arriving in heaven, the man marched straight over to God. "Heavenly Father," he said, "I had faith in you, I prayed to you to save me, and yet you did nothing. Why?" God gave him a puzzled look, and replied "I sent you two boats and a helicopter, what more did you expect?"

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 03:13PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Everyone knows that.

But your quote " As has been stated many times we are not fighting to get rid of the virus" I find extraordinary.

But it might explain why we are allowing UK residents and others in without supervised quarantine, and HSE's reluctance to recommend masks. Also the chronic 'too little, too late' reactions which has resulted in our horrifying death figures.

Top up the infections regularly seems to be the strategy... i.e. 'Herd Immunity' by stealth and deception of the general public.

I've always went with the more simplistic theory, that our leaders are just reactionary muppets that were too incompetent to get their strategy right on this... so make mistake after mistake. (They certainly have previous where this is concerned tbf)

But you do give me food for thought... I do wonder.

Snow Garden · 22-04-2020 03:18PM

Do we know yet why people bought so much toilet roll in mid March?

joe_99 · 22-04-2020 03:19PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I've always went with the more simplistic theory, that our leaders are just reactionary muppets that were too incompetent to get their strategy right on this... so make mistake after mistake. (They certainly have previous where this is concerned tbf)

But you do give me food for thought... I do wonder.

https://www.thejournal.ie/what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-5047757-Mar2020/

There is no conspiracy. What is going on in people's heads??

“In a pandemic like this where the virus is pretty good at transmitting from person to person, we can have an exponential increase in the number of infected people and that can lead to a peak of epidemic that completely swamps the health service,” explained Dr Kim Roberts, leader of the virology research group in Trinity College Dublin.

Roberts said measures like social distancing are aimed to slow down this transmission.

“So we slow down how the virus spreads through the population and we reduce the size of that peak so that although overall the same number of people might become infected, it will be over a longer period of time and the health service won’t be overwhelmed.”

https://www.thejournal.ie/what-does-flattening-the-curve-mean-5047757-Mar2020/

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 03:20PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Do we know yet why people bought so much toilet roll in mid March?

To wipe their crystal balls with. Obviously unnecessary in your case.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 03:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It was arbitrary. The statistics at the time if they had played out would have seen us closer to a total of 10,000 deaths today. I suggest you read the early posts by Pseudonym121 the HSE consultant, in the AMA thread on this topic if you want to get a picture of where this was going a month ago.

The day to day deaths by the way are tragic and am not downplaying them in any way. Just putting them in the context of where things could have gone.

Those early forecasts were mostly worst case scenario, based on an uncontrolled spread of the virus... nobody really knew what the true potential death toll could be. We still don't - as there could be multiple waves of this!

You're not really adding any worthwhile context to your assumptions. You just seem to be determined - like many others - to paint an overwhelmingly positive picture of the current situation, regardless of what you see in front of you.

I'm not buying the spin from people around here. Of course I want to be positive going forward too, but I'm not going to stick my head in the sand and pretend all the current stats are looking good... when many really are not!

cnocbui · 22-04-2020 03:21PM

Signs of blood thickening and clotting were being detected in different organs by doctors from different specialties. This would turn out to be one of the alarming ways the virus ravages the body, as doctors there and elsewhere were starting to realize.

At Mount Sinai, nephrologists noticed kidney dialysis catheters getting plugged with clots. Pulmonologists monitoring COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilators could see portions of lungs were oddly bloodless. Neurosurgeons confronted a surge in their usual caseload of strokes due to blood clots, the age of victims skewing younger, with at least half testing positive for the virus.

“It’s very striking how much this disease causes clots to form,” Dr. J Mocco, a Mount Sinai neurosurgeon, said in an interview, describing how some doctors think COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, is more than a lung disease. In some cases, Mocco said, a stroke was a young patient’s first symptom of COVID-19.

As colleagues from various specialties pooled their observations, they developed a new treatment protocol. Patients now receive high doses of a blood-thinning drug even before any evidence of clotting appears.

“Maybe, just maybe, if you prevent the clotting, you can make the disease less severe,” said Dr. David Reich, the hospital president. The new protocol will not be used on certain high-risk patients because blood thinners can lead to bleeding in the brain and other organs.
“FUNNY YOU MENTIONED THAT”

In the three weeks beginning mid-March, Mocco saw 32 stroke patients with large blood blockages in the brain, double the usual number for that period.

Five were unusually young, under age 49, with no obvious risk factors for strokes, “which is crazy,” he said. “Very, very atypical.” The youngest was only 31.

At least half of the 32 patients would test positive for COVID-19, Mocco said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-blood-idUSKCN22421Z

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 03:25PM

joe_99 wrote: »

You have been on the thread for weeks now. How did you not understand that we the policy is to slow the spread of the infection so that the curve is flattened. The numbers infected will remain the same. The first time the flatten the curve graph was shown this was called out and has been called out everytime since.

Firstly I have been on this thread for months.

But I was under the impression that we wished to get rid of the virus to protect the public and not encourage new infections..

The infection in an individual resolves or kills in a few weeks so how can the infection remain the same ?

And what was all the guff spouted by the CMO about isolating and tracing contacts when the curve was flattened... if the background idea is for 'the numbers infected to remain the same' ?

quokula · 22-04-2020 03:28PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I've always went with the more simplistic theory, that our leaders are just reactionary muppets that were too incompetent to get their strategy right on this... so make mistake after mistake. (They certainly have previous where this is concerned tbf)

But you do give me food for thought... I do wonder.

It's reactionary muppets who try to blame the government for every little thing with the aid of hindsight.

This is something none of us have seen in our lifetimes, none of us expected and none of us were prepared for. There are some Asian countries who were better prepared having faced SARS 1 in the recent past and put protocols in place accordingly. And there are countries across the southern hemisphere who have either not yet been hit either through luck, through climate, or are simply not recording it yet.

But compared to our neighbours and similar countries who have faced the same challenges as we have, not many countries have dealt with it or continue to deal with it as well as Ireland.

Different countries are measuring things differently and Ireland has tested far more people than most and has been far more rigorous in reporting deaths than most which has inflated our death statistic (or, more accurately, deflated most others), but I would bet that when all is said and done and we can start to look accurately back on how different countries have faired, we will stand much closer to the likes of Germany and Austria than the likes of the UK, France, Benelux, Spain etc.

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 03:29PM

gabeeg wrote: »

Sweden's leading epidemiologist, Tegnell, who has chartered the course they're on has been consistently wrong about this virus.

Initially he said it would not spread from China. It did.

Our CMO and government said we'd only have a small number of cases at the time.

Swedish families returning from late-February skiing in the Italian Alps were strongly advised to return to work and school if not visibly sick

Our HSE gave exactly the same advice at the time.

22-04-2020 03:31PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

But I was under the impression that we wished to get rid of the virus to protect the public and not encourage new infections

I’d be interested in how you think you ‘get rid’ of a virus (absent a vaccine that might never arrive, or take a couple of years to become available to all)

I guess we could give every Irish citizen a full hazmat suit to wear outside at all times, install an antiviral cleaning system at everyone’s door, and shut our border to all people and goods. Become entirely self sufficient as an island. And wait for it to die out. And then wait for the virus to cease existing in every other country before we come out of our hole.

22-04-2020 03:35PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Those early forecasts were mostly worst case scenario, based on an uncontrolled spread of the virus... nobody really knew what the true potential death toll could be. We still don't - as there could be multiple waves of this!

You're not really adding any worthwhile context to your assumptions. You just seem to be determined - like many others - to paint an overwhelmingly positive picture of the current situation, regardless of what you see in front of you.

I'm not buying the spin from people around here. Of course I want to be positive going forward too, but I'm not going to stick my head in the sand and pretend all the current stats are looking good... when many really are not!

Numbers are not stats - there's your first mistake. A statistic is a fact or piece of data obtained from a study of a large quantity of numerical data. One days results is a number not a stat when isolated from the rest of the data. Taking a single number and presenting it as evidence will never give a true picture of the situation.
If over time the data starts to suggest things are going in a more negative direction again I will be the first questioning what has gone wrong to send us backwards. But as of today, all indications are that we will start to see a fall off in deaths over the next two weeks to three weeks.

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 03:35PM

Deaths in Scotland now at 1060. I believe they count home deaths though

Wales at 624 deaths but is a lot for a country it's size considering nursing home and home deaths are not included

hmmm · 22-04-2020 03:38PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

But I was under the impression that we wished to get rid of the virus to protect the public and not encourage new infections..

There's only a handful of countries going for an "eradicate" strategy.

The majority of countries (including ourselves) think eradication is unlikely to work, the virus is too contagious, hides too well, and it would be economically too damaging to go for complete eradication. The expectation is that this will come back.

This article has become a bit famous by describing what is now known as the "Hammer and the Dance" and the suppression strategy which is the preferred strategy for most. Suppression is about buying time to develop more healthcare capacity, contact tracing expertise and better treatments for a round 2.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

nocoverart · 22-04-2020 03:39PM

New Home wrote: »

Again, check on the Dettox bottle - if it says kills viruses including Coronavirus you're good to go, but check also in what concentration

And let's not forget it's been found in faeces, too. If could have "filtered" through the guts, but it could just as easily have travelled through the stomach.

Reminds me of this old joke:

I'm only using flash with Bleach spray and Dettol wipes, not good enough?

El Weirdo · 22-04-2020 03:44PM

New Home wrote: »

Again, check on the Dettox bottle - if it says kills viruses including Coronavirus you're good to go, but check also in what concentration

There is more than one coronavirus. Dettol hasn't been tested on this particular one.

keynes · 22-04-2020 03:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But as of today, all indications are that we will start to see a fall off in deaths over the next two weeks to three weeks.

This is hardly surprising and will happen mechanically everywhere as the most vulnerable die quickly at the outset. Its not a vindication of policy

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 03:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I’d be interested in how you think you ‘get rid’ of a virus (absent a vaccine that might never arrive, or take a couple of years to become available to all)

I guess we could give every Irish citizen a full hazmat suit to wear outside at all times, install an antiviral cleaning system at everyone’s door, and shut our border to all people and goods. Become entirely self sufficient as an island. And wait for it to die out. And then wait for the virus to cease existing in every other country before we come out of our hole.

A typical example of the 'reductio ad absurdum' debating trick used by 'the powers that be' cheer-leading choir here.

No rational person is suggesting that trade in goods should be stopped or that we become self sufficient. The virus is carried by people... they are the ones who must be isolated and strictly quarantined.

Strangely we managed to protect the island from a viral infection during the Foot and Mouth epidemic in 2001. That virus could spread for 2 to 3 kms in aerosol form, not the puny 2 meters of the present virus. But I suppose when cattle are threatened it's OK to close borders but when people are at risk... it's impossible.

So it's 'Herd Immunity' by stealth which we must cope with here ?

normanoffside · 22-04-2020 03:47PM

Covid ICU Numbers yesterday are at their lowest since 2nd April

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252910692761587713

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252910692761587713/photo/1

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 03:48PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's only a handful of countries going for an "eradicate" strategy.

The majority of countries (including ourselves) think eradication is unlikely to work, the virus is too contagious, hides too well, and it would be economically too damaging to go for complete eradication. The expectation is that this will come back.

This article has become a bit famous by describing what is now known as the "Hammer and the Dance" and the suppression strategy which is the preferred strategy for most. Suppression is about buying time to develop more healthcare capacity, contact tracing expertise and better treatments for a round 2.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Eradication means a collapse in tourism. However it does mean your internal economy continues to function, so you can keep shops, pubs, restuarants and hotels open. Obviously employment in these sectors will decline, but the question is will it decline as much as if you have a series of rolling lockdowns.

Our tourism industry has also collapsed and the internal hospitality sector also.
We've seen a large number of shops and businesses go to the wall already.

In any case, NZ will have far lower deaths than us and unemployment may well be lower. Overall NZ's approach is far better than ours, no question about that.

We missed the boat on eradication a long time ago. And the Northern border complicates matters. We'd need the sign up of the DUP to go for full eradication.

growleaves · 22-04-2020 03:48PM

keynes wrote: »

This is hardly surprising and will happen mechanically everywhere as the most vulnerable die quickly at the outset. Its not a vindication of policy

When Mayor Giuliani was receiving plaudits for the fall-off in crime in New York City a police chief, who believed it was due to demographic changes, said it was "like taking credit for an eclipse."

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 03:50PM

quokula wrote: »

It's reactionary muppets who try to blame the government for every little thing with the aid of hindsight.

This is something none of us have seen in our lifetimes, none of us expected and none of us were prepared for. There are some Asian countries who were better prepared having faced SARS 1 in the recent past and put protocols in place accordingly. And there are countries across the southern hemisphere who have either not yet been hit either through luck, through climate, or are simply not recording it yet.

But compared to our neighbours and similar countries who have faced the same challenges as we have, not many countries have dealt with it or continue to deal with it as well as Ireland.

Different countries are measuring things differently and Ireland has tested far more people than most and has been far more rigorous in reporting deaths than most which has inflated our death statistic (or, more accurately, deflated most others), but I would bet that when all is said and done and we can start to look accurately back on how different countries have faired, we will stand much closer to the likes of Germany and Austria than the likes of the UK, France, Benelux, Spain etc.

So I guess I must be living in an alternate universe then... one where our government didn't drop the ball on so many aspects of this crisis...

- We're in the top 10 deaths per million worldwide.
- Zero action on things like Cheltenham
- Reluctance to cancel events like paddy's day - until they were literally forced to do so.
- Our CMO advising no need to stop visitors to nursing homes - advice the nursing homes association thankfully recognised as bullsh*t and ignored it.
- Practically nothing done to proactively protect nursing homes, despite being forewarned about this as a huge problem in Italy (You don't need previous experience with a pandemic - when you literally have a country on the same continent giving you sound advice - which you then completely ignore)
- Zero quarantining of people coming into the country through our borders or returning citizens.
- The disgraceful situation with PPE.
- The absolute shambles that is our testing regime.

And on... and on... and on... the list of incompetencies is growing quite long at this point.

But you keep being a cheerleader for these muppets... you've plenty of company in this country unfortunately!

If people don't get called out for doing a bad job or screwing things up, how can any of us expect better standards in this country going forward? We won't get better leaders, by ignoring their mistakes and pretending they're doing a great job... that's the road that always leads to yet more mediocrity and underachievement.

joe_99 · 22-04-2020 03:52PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Firstly I have been on this thread for months.

But I was under the impression that we wished to get rid of the virus to protect the public and not encourage new infections..

The infection in an individual resolves or kills in a few weeks so how can the infection remain the same ?

And what was all the guff spouted by the CMO about isolating and tracing contacts when the curve was flattened... if the background idea is for 'the numbers infected to remain the same' ?

Correct. Until there is a vaccine this virus is here to stay. Policy from the start was to flatten the curve. There is no avoiding that in an open society. CMO has been clear from day 1....flatten curve by testing, testing, testing and contact tracing.

Tony EH · 22-04-2020 03:52PM

Xertz wrote: »

On the mask thing. I wore one to a supermarket and I had some woman in her 60s decide to have a good laugh and mock me!

Maybe she was a stupid cunt when she was younger as well.

Xertz wrote: »

“Jesus you’re taking this a bit seriously aren’t you love?”

You probably should have pointed out to her that your seriousness regarding Covid-19 transmission was mainly for her benefit, as people of her age group are in the firing line.

Xertz wrote: »

The “Auld one” snide remark didn’t happen in that supermarket and I don’t think it would have because they’ve set the stage for an atmosphere of taking it seriously!

Unfortunately, there's no cure for stupid. So, I wouldn't be taking that "auld one's" remark too seriously. Perhaps one day she'll understand what you were doing and why you were doing it.

Drumpot · 22-04-2020 03:53PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Eradication means a collapse in tourism. However it does mean your internal economy continues to function, so you can keep shops, pubs, restuarants and hotels open. Obviously employment in these sectors will decline, but the question is will it decline as much as if you have a series of rolling lockdowns.

Our tourism industry has also collapsed and the internal hospitality sector also.
We've seen a large number of shops and businesses go to the wall already.

In any case, NZ will have far lower deaths than us and unemployment may well be lower. Overall NZ's approach is far better than ours, no question about that.

We missed the boat on eradication a long time ago. And the Northern border complicates matters. We'd need the sign up of the DUP to go for full eradication.

I wouldnt subscribe to a New Zealand comparison to be honest. Apart from being an island, there really isn't much of a comparison to be made.

Economically, politicaly and geographically, the decisions New Zealand made were far easier to make, for their populations to follow quickly and for them to enforce. If we were an island in the middle of nowhere, thousands of miles from most of civilisation (but for one other country), then you might have a point.

joe_99 · 22-04-2020 03:53PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Covid ICU Numbers yesterday are at their lowest since 2nd April

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252910692761587713

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1252910692761587713/photo/1

Looks great.....nice and flat

the.red.baron · 22-04-2020 03:57PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

A typical example of the 'reductio ad absurdum' debating trick used by 'the powers that be' cheer-leading choir here.

No rational person is suggesting that trade in goods should be stopped or that we become self sufficient. The virus is carried by people... they are the ones who must be isolated and strictly quarantined.

Strangely we managed to protect the island from a viral infection during the Foot and Mouth epidemic in 2001. That virus could spread for 2 to 3 kms in aerosol form, not the puny 2 meters of the present virus. But I suppose when cattle are threatened it's OK to close borders but when people are at risk... it's impossible.

So it's 'Herd Immunity' by stealth which we must cope with here ?

There is a vaccine for this

are you saying we should burn people who could be infected in mass graves

cows don't like international travel (some have no choice)

hmmm · 22-04-2020 03:58PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We missed the boat on eradication a long time ago. And the Northern border complicates matters. We'd need the sign up of the DUP to go for full eradication.

You're saying that the Irish government approach is flawed, because during the month of February they didn't achieve Irish unity through agreement with the DUP?

joe_99 · 22-04-2020 03:59PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

So I guess I must be living in an alternate universe then... one where our government didn't drop the ball on so many aspects of this crisis...

- We're in the top 10 deaths per million worldwide.
- Zero action on things like Cheltenham
- Reluctance to cancel events like paddy's day - until they were literally forced to do so.
- Our CMO advising no need to stop visitors to nursing homes - advice the nursing homes association thankfully recognised as bullsh*t and ignored it.
- Practically nothing done to proactively protect nursing homes, despite being forewarned about this as a huge problem in Italy (You don't need previous experience with a pandemic - when you literally have a country on the same continent giving you sound advice - which you then completely ignore)
- Zero quarantining of people coming into the country through our borders or returning citizens.
- The disgraceful situation with PPE.
- The absolute shambles that is our testing regime.

And on... and on... and on... the list of incompetencies is growing quite long at this point.

But you keep being a cheerleader for these muppets... you've plenty of company in this country unfortunately!

If people don't get called out for doing a bad job or screwing things up, how can any of us expect better standards in this country going forward? We won't get better leaders, by ignoring their mistakes and pretending they're doing a great job... that's the road that always leads to yet more mediocrity and underachievement.

I give up. Don't even know where to begin with this post.

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 03:59PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

So I guess I must be living in an alternate universe then... one where our government didn't drop the ball on so many aspects of this crisis...

- We're in the top 10 deaths per million worldwide.
- Zero action on things like Cheltenham
- Reluctance to cancel events like paddy's day - until they were literally forced to do so.
- Our CMO advising no need to stop visitors to nursing homes - advice the nursing homes association thankfully recognised as bullsh*t and ignored it.
- Practically nothing done to proactively protect nursing homes, despite being forewarned about this as a huge problem in Italy (You don't need previous experience with a pandemic - when you literally have a country on the same continent giving you sound advice - which you then completely ignore)
- Zero quarantining of people coming into the country through our borders or returning citizens.
- The disgraceful situation with PPE.
- The absolute shambles that is our testing regime.

And on... and on... and on... the list of incompetencies is growing quite long at this point.

But you keep being a cheerleader for these muppets... you've plenty of company in this country unfortunately!

If people don't get called out for doing a bad job or screwing things up, how can any of us expect better standards in this country going forward? We won't get better leaders, by ignoring their mistakes and pretending they're doing a great job... that's the road that always leads to yet more mediocrity and underachievement.

Judging by this "calling out" there's a full-on Trumpian 5 hour speech in it. Quite a lot of it is just your opinion and no basis whatsoever for any report. A whole lot of the rest of it has real world explanations , which you ignore for your own convenience. There will be a review into actions and on what could be done better into the future. On balance, it has been dealt with well enough and some very obvious early issues have been resolved but fire away with your 5000 page report on all that went wrong.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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