Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

wadacrack · 13-04-2020 05:28PM

Reporters asking about lifting restrictions. They need to stop with that. We are reaching the peak not the time for that

Loafing Oaf · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate

In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate (even if we have broadly flattened it's still a lot of cases). Another poster asked a question last night which makes same point.

New cases are coming from healthatcahre setting and Tesco. End of.

Ace2007 · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

I'd agree with the first part of the post though...
people are getting too hung up on, for eg. yesterdays low number of deaths, or any little 'jump' in case numbers

I think the briefing should be done weekly - day to day numbers don't tell anything really. It's just worry people and the headline numbers don't really tell us anything.

Gynoid wrote: »

It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.

There were hundreds of Garda on the roads at the weekend - if people were obeying the rules, the Garda wouldn't be required - the reality is people are becoming complacent. This idea of a lock down for 2/3 weeks is giving people the itch to think we are getting out of this soon, you have people thinking that restrictions will be lifted in May - saw an post about a gym in my area hoping to be open in May - this is the type of people in society - like gym of all places will not be opening in May - but there are people out there that do believe this.

Martina1991 · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

Rvsmmnps wrote:

The CDC test kit that ostensibly identifies SARS-COV-2 originally used 3 genetic makers (N1, N2, N3). The N3 marker was removed and the N1 primers are not homologous to targets. Now CDC says results donâ€™t have to be confirmed

jackboy wrote:

What does this mean?

This depends on the platform used in each laboratory but ill try and give the gist to the best of my knowledge.

The presence of 3 covid genes are looked for in testing.

Some labs were reporting a positive result only when all 3 were present.
Some were reporting a positive result when 2 out of the 3 were present.
This was the recommended way of reporting results according to the manufacture.

Now the manufactures are advising labs to report a test as being positive if even 1 gene is present. As these assays are very new they're being tweaked to be more sensitive and specific.

This means anyone that previously reported as negative may now be reclassified as being positive if they had the presence of 1 gene.

Its a "better safe than sorry" adjustment to reporting.

The independent are reporting that less than 100 people were effected.

podgeandrodge · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings

This. This! Reports of supermarket staff getting sick are rare enough and they are there all day every day. Some have posted on here to say very little impact on numbers working/vs out sick. I think you'd be reasonably unlucky to catch it just walking through the supermarket, mask or no mask.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:29PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...

Supermarkets.

RobertKK · 13-04-2020 05:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t have any narrative. I am comparing to the countries of Western Europe, most like ourselves, open economies, mobile workforce, population of frequent travellers.

But not countries who are doing better, and Norway and Finland for example are in the freedom of movement of people, open economies, dependent on the freedom of movement etc.
We must aim to be average to worse and be thankful we aren't the very worse even if we are in the top 10 worse performing countries when one does the average death per population

13-04-2020 05:30PM

bekker wrote: »

Cumulative deaths to 13th April.

Weld Dubliners in their homes is the answer

Lesnar Defender · 13-04-2020 05:30PM

Per worldometer, the only European countries that will have more cases than us today are; UK, Italy, Spain, Russia & France

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 05:30PM

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249750295388790787?s=20

easypazz · 13-04-2020 05:30PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.

Thats silly.

The german results are added to the total positives since the start.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:31PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

I think the briefing should be done weekly - day to day numbers don't tell anything really. It's just worry people and the headline numbers don't really tell us anything.

There were hundreds of Garda on the roads at the weekend - if people were obeying the rules, the Garda wouldn't be required - the reality is people are becoming complacent. This idea of a lock down for 2/3 weeks is giving people the itch to think we are getting out of this soon, you have people thinking that restrictions will be lifted in May - saw an post about a gym in my area hoping to be open in May - this is the type of people in society - like gym of all places will not be opening in May - but there are people out there that do believe this.

Large percentage of the population are accepting that life needs to return and have accepted the death rate that will follow.

davemckenna25 · 13-04-2020 05:31PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...

People not doing what they should, parties, visiting friends, etc...

TheDoctor · 13-04-2020 05:31PM

We'll only be able to see proper case growth when we finally clear the backlog and the results coming through are only from tests in the previous 2/3 days.

Currently getting results back from anything up to a month ago in our daily figures which gives a false picture of the current environment.

Fr_Dougal · 13-04-2020 05:31PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They're not new. The CMO has explained this so many times, I don't get what you don't understand. They're from weeks back. They should NOT be included in the new case growth calculation.

They’re newly diagnosed, what part of that don’t you understand? They SHOULD be included, not all of us are in favour of Chemical Ali type reporting of numbers.

Peanut Butter Jelly · 13-04-2020 05:32PM

I know it may not count for much, but in the last 10 days, we have had growth rates (excluding cases from Germany) under 10%. Considering we were close to 30% at Paddy's week, its a decent drop and shows the spread is slowing down, but we still have serious work to do

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249750295388790787?s=20

If people are recovering after avg 10 days, lets say, what's the rolling 10 day growth chart like?

Strazdas · 13-04-2020 05:33PM

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

Per worldometer, the only European countries that will have more cases than us today are; UK, Italy, Spain, Russia & France

Which suggests we are doing a very good job with the testing

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Weld Dubliners in their homes is the answer

You want Dubliners to live, fair play.

RugbyLad11 · 13-04-2020 05:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings

But where are people getting the virus in the first place? it can't magically transport to your home. Everything else is closed so they must be catching it in the supermarket.

polesheep · 13-04-2020 05:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes that was in either July or August 1993 in a Dublin hospital. My friend was awaiting to be called for a lung transplant in England. They were not drunk, but were sharing a bottle of wine with their lunch. There were superb staff in the hospital, I saw incredible work done there and my friend got his successful transplant.

Anyway, this has nothing to do with Covid-19, and I’m sure public hospitals have much better supervision now.

And I would hope that you have better supervision now.

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 05:34PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

They’re newly diagnosed, what part of that don’t you understand? They SHOULD be included, not all of us are in favour of Chemical Ali type reporting of numbers.

If you watched the CMO speaking right now you'd know that they're not being included (they are, but spread out over the last month, because they're not new) in the government's growth charts, because they showed them. Seems you should be making the charts, not the CMO.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 05:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldn't be so complacent in your thought process. I don't treat the deaths that have or will occur lightly.

Good for you. And neither do I. Thanks.

stephenjmcd · 13-04-2020 05:35PM

Today's ICU numbers
https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249751354156990464?s=19

easypazz · 13-04-2020 05:35PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

They’re newly diagnosed, what part of that don’t you understand? They SHOULD be included, not all of us are in favour of Chemical Ali type reporting of numbers.

They are included in the overall figure.

RugbyLad11 · 13-04-2020 05:35PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

This. This! Reports of supermarket staff getting sick are rare enough and they are there all day every day. Some have posted on here to say very little impact on numbers working/vs out sick. I think you'd be reasonably unlucky to catch it just walking through the supermarket, mask or no mask.

We've been in a lockdown for so long so and the only place people could catch it is a supermarket! Staff in supermarket have the screen protecting them anyway and I saw most staff in my local aldi wearing masks too

Beasty · 13-04-2020 05:35PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate (even if we have broadly flattened it's still a lot of cases). Another poster asked a question last night which makes same point.

I really struggle to understand why people place so much meaning on the "test result" figures

They have limited the tests significantly. I would guess most of the "recorded" positives are coming from medical staff and nursing homes. However we have no real idea how many unrecorded positives there are out there. It could be as many again, it could be 5 or 10 times as many again

I have little doubt the numbers will continue increasing by similar amounts so long as we are doing similar amounts of tests. And again the figures we see today may well be from people referred for testing a week (possibly more) ago

podgeandrodge · 13-04-2020 05:36PM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Supermarkets.

Source? Or do you just know?
Only thing I am going on is local supermarket staff still there and posters on here that work in supermarkets saying there hasn't been any noticeable increase in sickness levels.

Ace2007 · 13-04-2020 05:36PM

davemckenna25 wrote: »

People not doing what they should, parties, visiting friends, etc...

A lad in the restricitions thread had family over yesterday - despite his sister being a nurse living in the same house and not wanting to have anything to do with it - that's the type of people that we have to deal with.

Reminds of me idiots when in college - you know ones that you have to do assignments with and think to yourself can't wait to get away from them, as they are so spaced out from reality etc, - and you get away from them, and see them in society and think how f**ked up their life is, the problem now is that we need this same idiots, who someone should have kicked sense into when they were in school/college, but no one did, to behave normally - but no chance of that happening.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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