Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Sierra Oscar · 13-04-2020 10:05AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No. There will be an announcement of the latest figures but no press briefing.

There is a HSE briefing at 11.15am.

davemckenna25 · 13-04-2020 10:06AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No. There will be an announcement of the latest figures but no press briefing.

HSE press briefing at 11.15 on RTE news now.

expectationlost · 13-04-2020 10:09AM

health briefing now https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1RDGlQdrLbVJL#

coastwatch · 13-04-2020 10:09AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Really interesting to see the antiviral effects of copper in that graphic.

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 10:13AM

cloudatlas wrote:

He was screaming at a stena line worker on twitter sneering at him, saying he was British born etc., stena has to keep going to transport goods. Conor is a reactionary, the only thing he has done which is helpful is donated some money.

Your petty little world is sad. Get over McGregor and move on, live life.
I don't mind if you don't like him but at least have a good argument if you are going to start. Covid-19 is not the place, he has been pretty good on that front.

podgeandrodge · 13-04-2020 10:13AM

Wildlife Actor wrote: »

Can someone help me with timelines here? So if Tony Holohan tells us we have 500 "new cases" this evening, when are they likely to have been infected?

Let's say I get sneezed on and infected on day 1. Presumably it could be 10 to 14 days before I develop symptoms. I wait a day or two, hoping against hope. Then I go to the Doc who says, OK you're a proper person to send for a test. Then I wait X days for a test, get tested, and then I wait Y days for the result. Then I'm a "new case".

Isn't it possible (even leaving aside the delayed German tests) that a lot of "new cases" are actually people who were infected up to 4 weeks ago? Possibly longer?

Sorry if this has been asked and answered multiple times before.

I would also like to see views on this. More than McGregor talk anyway!

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 10:15AM

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 10:17AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

Can you send a link? I'd like to see this! Thanks

GeorgeBailey · 13-04-2020 10:19AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It might be unpopular now to say this but there are problems throughout the health service and the frontline is no exception.

People also think backroom/office/management are a complete waste and the cause of all our healtcare woes rather than what they are. Essential.

Faults in all sections of healthcare because people are people basically. Some dedicated, some lazy, some somewhere in between.

Similar to saying you don't like dogs though, if you say the frontline should be open to criticism people will think you're a psychopath.

Poorside · 13-04-2020 10:20AM

This has the sound of getting us ready for big jumps in numbers while trying to keep things calm

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 10:21AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Can you send a link? I'd like to see this! Thanks

Did a ninja edit and put it in - I'd forgotten.

sonofenoch · 13-04-2020 10:23AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

He was screaming at a stena line worker on twitter sneering at him, saying he was British born etc., stena has to keep going to transport goods. Conor is a reactionary, the only thing he has done which is helpful is donated some money.

The only thing he has done is donate some money....eh eh eh

the only thing he has done is donate some money

13-04-2020 10:25AM

.... and that is the true genius of Conor Mcgregor. With a few wind up social media posts he can turn a conversation about Covid19 into a conversation about Conor Mcgregor.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 10:27AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Did a ninja edit and put it in - I'd forgotten.

Sorry I still can't see it ðŸ˜¬

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 10:28AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Sorry I still can't see it &#55357;&#56876;

Click on the word 'This'.

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 10:28AM

smelly sock wrote: »

Hang on pal. My brother is frontline too. Ive had plenty of bad experiences in irish hospitals with both nurses and doctors. The people like myself who stay at home and watch Netflix will save thousamds of lives directly.

My mother was left in her own excrement for 3 hours while 5 nurses were at the station drinking tea. I had to ask 6 times for her to be looked after and the attitude was appalling. I really hope those people dont work in the hospitals anymore.

I fully respect the hard workers putting the hours in to look after the poorly but the system is ****e for mulitple reasons. Not just over admin or governance issue but frontline problems too

Covid 19 hasnt changed the fact the health service is shocking.

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

13-04-2020 10:29AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Sorry I still can't see it ðŸ˜¬

The first word "this" in their post is the link

DevilsHaircut · 13-04-2020 10:34AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

It actually projects zero deaths from 11 May.

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 10:34AM

GM228 wrote: »

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 44 - Sunday 12/04/2020

Big table of data.

Thank you for this. Nice summary.

Could I ask you to add a couple of columns?

Number entering hospital that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Number entering ICU that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 10:35AM

275 of a possible 800 icu beds in use !

Funsterdelux · 13-04-2020 10:37AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Thank you for this. Nice summary.

Could I ask you to add a couple of columns?

Number entering hospital that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Number entering ICU that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Are you serious, more columns?

:eek:

normanoffside · 13-04-2020 10:37AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

275 of a possible 800 icu beds in use !

148 ICU beds being used for Covid at present. This is down on last week.

Michael Dwyer · 13-04-2020 10:37AM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

But we would have avoided Saipan

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 10:37AM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

It actually projects zero deaths from 11 May.

Saw that.

13-04-2020 10:39AM

Wombatman wrote: »

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

What a stupid comment. Have you ever been in a hospital ward? You don't just start stripping beds and cleaning patients without proper equipment and training.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 10:42AM

Wombatman wrote: »

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

No i didnt have any ppe or any other materials to clean with. Nurses and doctors are part of the wider problems in the hse.

cnocbui · 13-04-2020 10:43AM

China stepping up efforts to absolve themselves of responsibility.

Hong Kong (CNN)China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web.
Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.
A medical expert in Hong Kong who collaborated with mainland researchers to publish a clinical analysis of Covid-19 cases in an international medical journal said his work did not undergo such vetting in February.

The increased scrutiny appears to be the latest effort by the Chinese government to control the narrative on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives and sickened 1.7 million people worldwide since it first broke out in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

Christy42 · 13-04-2020 10:47AM

Poorside wrote: »

This has the sound of getting us ready for big jumps in numbers while trying to keep things calm

We had the big jump to 700-800 cases a day. That seems t be linked with the extra tests being done and will drop once our backlog runs out. There are still plenty sick so the potential for more deaths is always there unfortunately.

While I am sure plenty will use this as a stick to beat us with in comparison to nations that test less it is important to have tested as much as possible. Even with the fact that it brings bad news.

caveat emptor · 13-04-2020 10:49AM

Great micro learning course by euro CDC. (ECDC) . Goes through doning and doffing PPE. While aimed at healthcare staff gives a good insight in proper practice with masks etc.

https://eva.ecdc.europa.eu/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=1627

cloudatlas · 13-04-2020 10:53AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Your petty little world is sad. Get over McGregor and move on, live life.
I don't mind if you don't like him but at least have a good argument if you are going to start. Covid-19 is not the place, he has been pretty good on that front.

No thanks. Edit: my response was to people bleating on about closing ports and airports as if that will make any remarkable difference months later. Conor has donated money great but he is not an authority and should shut up and stop abusing workers online.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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