Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 10:55AM

RandomName2 wrote: »

I'm finding some people in surprising positions don't seem to be taking social distancing seriously enough. I've had a number of deliveries where the delivery person knocked on the door and wanted to hand the item directly into my hands, or wanted to bring the thing into my house.

This would be very nice in normal times, but these aren't normal times. We aren't doing this for fun.

A delivery person is a really good vector for the disease, and any company suggesting that they should treat customers as if social distancing doesn't matter, should be made aware that they're out of order.

Report them to Gardai.

cloudatlas · 13-04-2020 10:55AM

eagle eye wrote: »

You are the one bringing it up not me.

Conor McGregor is not a medical expert, I don't think he's ever claimed to be. Like the rest of us he watched he read all about what was happening, used his position to tell people to stay safe, spent some of his own money on PPE gear for hospitals before anybody else that I've heard of do it. He then wants a complete lockdown to protect him and his family and the rest of us.
Nothing wrong with anything he has done.
Get over your hate of the man, and if you can't will you kindly shag off and take your idiotic posts with you.

He was screaming at a stena line worker on twitter sneering at him, saying he was British born etc., stena has to keep going to transport goods. Conor is a reactionary, the only thing he has done which is helpful is donated some money.

Phoebas · 13-04-2020 10:57AM

smelly sock wrote: »

Ye coz the Nazis killing 6 million jews and persecuting anyone who is different is the same as a virus which causes little or know issues for the vast majority of people.

How do you no that?

munsterlegend · 13-04-2020 10:58AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Will there be press conference today or none?

Tomorrow I would think.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 10:59AM

Colash wrote: »

How are we acutally faring out in the whole thing ? Is it just me or is the recovery rate very slow ? And is the recovery rate being monitored properly ?

We are doing good. If the numbers start to decline its positive. Hopefully get the deaths into single figures and new cases down too.

Cork Boy 53 · 13-04-2020 11:02AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Will there be press conference today or none?

No. There will be an announcement of the latest figures but no press briefing.

FishOnABike · 13-04-2020 11:02AM

tails_naf wrote: »

Looking at the world stats per population, it seems ireland is one of the worst, if you exclude all the small countries like Andorra, etc. Of the countries with a few million population there's only really 4 or 5 countries with more cases than us. This is not down to just testing as we're way below many countries on testing per population. Any ideas why? Is it down to what's being counted, or something else?

It's down to it not being a valid way to compare countries at this point in time, for a number of reasons.

Different countries are using different criteria for diagnosing CiViD-19, some use differential diagnosis based on symptoms, others on diagnostic test results; some countries are only counting diagnosed hospital deaths and don't include nursing home or home deaths.

Some countries record cause of death differently e.g. one country might record cause of death as pneumonia or heart failure with CoViD-19 secondary whereas another would record the cause of death as CoViD-19 with pneumonia or heart failure secondary.

Less developed countries may not even have the capability to collect reliable statistics.

Even if all countries being compared were using the same diagnostic criteria and recording cause of death in exactly the same way it still wouldn't be valid to compare per population until after the pandemic had ended in all countries being compared.

If one person, on average infects four others, the virus will spread from 1 to 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, etc... the same in a country of 5 million as a country of 50 million. It will take longer to spread to the same % population in a more populous country. Until the virus has spread to the majority of people in both, a per population comparison will always make the less populous country's stats appear to be worse.

The best measure during the pandemic is the rate of spread.

Since CoViD-19 seems to be asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic in a significant percentage of cases even the rate of spread has to be inferred from mortality, ICU and hospital admission rates making comparisons between countries with different access to healthcare difficult.

At the moment the best measures are the spread or replication rate and ability of a country's healthcare infrastructure to cope. On both counts we appear to be coping relatively well.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 11:04AM

Phoebas wrote: »

How do you no that?

Thays what we have been told from the start.

Sierra Oscar · 13-04-2020 11:05AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No. There will be an announcement of the latest figures but no press briefing.

There is a HSE briefing at 11.15am.

davemckenna25 · 13-04-2020 11:06AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No. There will be an announcement of the latest figures but no press briefing.

HSE press briefing at 11.15 on RTE news now.

expectationlost · 13-04-2020 11:09AM

health briefing now https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1RDGlQdrLbVJL#

coastwatch · 13-04-2020 11:09AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Really interesting to see the antiviral effects of copper in that graphic.

eagle eye · 13-04-2020 11:13AM

cloudatlas wrote:

He was screaming at a stena line worker on twitter sneering at him, saying he was British born etc., stena has to keep going to transport goods. Conor is a reactionary, the only thing he has done which is helpful is donated some money.

Your petty little world is sad. Get over McGregor and move on, live life.
I don't mind if you don't like him but at least have a good argument if you are going to start. Covid-19 is not the place, he has been pretty good on that front.

podgeandrodge · 13-04-2020 11:13AM

Wildlife Actor wrote: »

Can someone help me with timelines here? So if Tony Holohan tells us we have 500 "new cases" this evening, when are they likely to have been infected?

Let's say I get sneezed on and infected on day 1. Presumably it could be 10 to 14 days before I develop symptoms. I wait a day or two, hoping against hope. Then I go to the Doc who says, OK you're a proper person to send for a test. Then I wait X days for a test, get tested, and then I wait Y days for the result. Then I'm a "new case".

Isn't it possible (even leaving aside the delayed German tests) that a lot of "new cases" are actually people who were infected up to 4 weeks ago? Possibly longer?

Sorry if this has been asked and answered multiple times before.

I would also like to see views on this. More than McGregor talk anyway!

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:15AM

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 11:17AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

Can you send a link? I'd like to see this! Thanks

GeorgeBailey · 13-04-2020 11:19AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It might be unpopular now to say this but there are problems throughout the health service and the frontline is no exception.

People also think backroom/office/management are a complete waste and the cause of all our healtcare woes rather than what they are. Essential.

Faults in all sections of healthcare because people are people basically. Some dedicated, some lazy, some somewhere in between.

Similar to saying you don't like dogs though, if you say the frontline should be open to criticism people will think you're a psychopath.

Poorside · 13-04-2020 11:20AM

This has the sound of getting us ready for big jumps in numbers while trying to keep things calm

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:21AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Can you send a link? I'd like to see this! Thanks

Did a ninja edit and put it in - I'd forgotten.

sonofenoch · 13-04-2020 11:23AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

He was screaming at a stena line worker on twitter sneering at him, saying he was British born etc., stena has to keep going to transport goods. Conor is a reactionary, the only thing he has done which is helpful is donated some money.

The only thing he has done is donate some money....eh eh eh

the only thing he has done is donate some money

13-04-2020 11:25AM

.... and that is the true genius of Conor Mcgregor. With a few wind up social media posts he can turn a conversation about Covid19 into a conversation about Conor Mcgregor.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 11:27AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Did a ninja edit and put it in - I'd forgotten.

Sorry I still can't see it ðŸ˜¬

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:28AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Sorry I still can't see it &#55357;&#56876;

Click on the word 'This'.

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 11:28AM

smelly sock wrote: »

Hang on pal. My brother is frontline too. Ive had plenty of bad experiences in irish hospitals with both nurses and doctors. The people like myself who stay at home and watch Netflix will save thousamds of lives directly.

My mother was left in her own excrement for 3 hours while 5 nurses were at the station drinking tea. I had to ask 6 times for her to be looked after and the attitude was appalling. I really hope those people dont work in the hospitals anymore.

I fully respect the hard workers putting the hours in to look after the poorly but the system is ****e for mulitple reasons. Not just over admin or governance issue but frontline problems too

Covid 19 hasnt changed the fact the health service is shocking.

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

13-04-2020 11:29AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Sorry I still can't see it ðŸ˜¬

The first word "this" in their post is the link

DevilsHaircut · 13-04-2020 11:34AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

It actually projects zero deaths from 11 May.

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 11:34AM

GM228 wrote: »

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 44 - Sunday 12/04/2020

Big table of data.

Thank you for this. Nice summary.

Could I ask you to add a couple of columns?

Number entering hospital that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Number entering ICU that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 11:35AM

275 of a possible 800 icu beds in use !

Funsterdelux · 13-04-2020 11:37AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Thank you for this. Nice summary.

Could I ask you to add a couple of columns?

Number entering hospital that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Number entering ICU that day: Subtract the previous days running total from the new running total.

Are you serious, more columns?

:eek:

normanoffside · 13-04-2020 11:37AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

275 of a possible 800 icu beds in use !

148 ICU beds being used for Covid at present. This is down on last week.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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