Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

ZX7R · 12-04-2020 02:51PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Lockdown will be lifted on a phased basis from May 5th regardless of the status of Covid.

The Economy needs to be kick started.

There was an interesting question program on nhk news channel a member of the imf , person from who , EU diplomat and a person from the federal American bank, talking about the world economy and the affects on health systems also.
Long story short they all agreed that indefinite lockdowns are not viable and could not continue.
It boils down to controling the virus and getting economy's stimulus rolling and people back to work

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 02:52PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Apart from the fact that you've gotten everything wrong, you're right.

What parts have I got wrong?

scamalert · 12-04-2020 02:53PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There will not be a lockdown until vaccine. Have you not read anything?
I'll give you a direct quote from Harris,

"In relation to the roadmap, there is going to be a point in this country where we will have to live alongside the virus, for want of a better phrase, where sadly people will still get sick and sadly some people will still die but it is at a rate that is sustainable for our doctors to manage,"

That's clearly been the objective since the start, they wont be waiting for a vaccine. No country will be, it's not sustainable

thats accurate think mention was to get it down to 5-10 daily deaths that would be acceptable outcome, in grand scheme virus isnt going anywhere, but once supplement pay is gone people will be out themselves and it will be worse since with little jobs going we will face 2 disasters at the same time for hell knows how many years to come.

bodhrandude · 12-04-2020 02:54PM

Where can I help the Sierra Leone Covid Pandemic, was watching the Late Late Show the other night and the African country only has 2 ventilators which is shocking, was looking at Trocaire but you can't choose the specific country, I want my money to specifically go to Sierra Leone for the Covid Pandemic. If anyone can direct me to that particular charity. I have tweeted Ryan Tubridy as he was the one that mentioned it.

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 02:56PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Jesus wept.

No he didn’t, he never existed IMO.

stephenjmcd · 12-04-2020 02:57PM

scamalert wrote: »

thats accurate think mention was to get it down to 5-10 daily deaths that would be acceptable outcome, in grand scheme virus isnt going anywhere, but once supplement pay is gone people will be out themselves and it will be worse since with little jobs going we will face 2 disasters at the same time for hell knows how many years to come.

No death is really acceptable but this cant go on until a vaccine is found. Longer a shutdown goes on, the worse the economic effects and the domino effect then on other services including even more pressure on health in time to come.

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 02:58PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

No there wont be lockdown until a vaccine. Why would you put out such scaremongering horse****.

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 02:58PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

They are off their rocker if they think they will be flying again anytime this summer. Without a vaccine airlines as we know them are finished for the foreseeable.

There will be un certainty about flights for the rest of the year, no argument there. But in the next year or 2 they will resume and i will bet everything i have they will. Sorry if that disappoints you.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 02:59PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What parts have I got wrong?

You already know.

Lord Fairlord · 12-04-2020 03:01PM

Corriere Della Sera saying that in Treviso, for the first three months of 2020, hospital deaths are in line with previous years.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 03:01PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely. There's no stopping this until vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

You already know the above is bullsh1t don't you.

Lundstram · 12-04-2020 03:01PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

No he didn’t, he never existed IMO.

An edgy athiest, just what we need. :rolleyes:

lawred2 · 12-04-2020 03:02PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No death is really acceptable but this cant go on until a vaccine is found. Longer a shutdown goes on, the worse the economic effects and the domino effect then on other services including even more pressure on health in time to come.

At the end of the day, we live with the annual consequences of the flu.

Not saying that they are the same but living with sometimes deadly viruses isn't anything new.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-04-2020 03:03PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

There may never be a vaccine, this could be similar to a common cold issue. Except with worse effect

The most important thing is that this never happens again.

What if this was 20 times as deadly a virus?

It is frightening how the world allowed China to turn a blind eye to dangerous customs in parts of their country time and time again that puts the whole world at risk (and it's not only China) then they go on to try and cover it up.

I hope that this is the end of that but I'd say we all have our doubts.

The world needs to lean on China after this.

It's too dangerous.

jackboy · 12-04-2020 03:03PM

As soon as the restrictions ease, infections and deaths will rapidly rise. So easing the restrictions is going the herd immunity route that Boris was mocked for.

Don’t for a minute think that low level social distancing and hand washing will stop this virus exploding. That would be no more than wishful thinking.

There would be very little difference ending the restrictions today compared with ending them in a few weeks time.

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 03:03PM

easypazz wrote: »

You already know the above is bullsh1t don't you.

We've known for a while your a FG bot.

woohoo!!! · 12-04-2020 03:04PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What parts have I got wrong?

I think the vast majority of the world were not in any way prepared for a pandemic of this nature, bar some Asian countries. I think european countries have had varying degrees of successes and failures. Above all, who knows how long a viable vaccine is away from mass production.

I understand your frustration, I do. We are winging it largely down to the issues raised in the paragraph above. So the real question is how are we doing it on a largely winging it approach? I'd say, good on some aspects and not so good on others. Reliable testing seems to be the key and after a decent start, there has been a very disappointing lag. But this is a marathon I think and it's proper scientific understanding of this thing, which takes time, before we can come out the other side.

Hindsight is great but neither do we have a crystal ball.

jam_mac_jam · 12-04-2020 03:04PM

Lord Fairlord wrote: »

Corriere Della Sera saying that in Treviso, for the first three months of 2020, hospital deaths are in line with previous years.

With no numbers I expect you can say whatever you like.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 03:04PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Source

Limited supply of proprofol, fentanyl and noradrenaline, all used for patients on ventilators, reported in the UK today.

kwestfan08 · 12-04-2020 03:05PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

With those figures you are assuming that no one since the outbreak started has either gotten better or died from the virus. Cases that started 4-5 weeks ago the vast majority will have recovered so they cannot still be infecting people.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 03:05PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We've known for a while your a FG bot.

Nobody is falling for your efforts.

Report card: Needs to try a lot harder.

AlmightyCushion · 12-04-2020 03:07PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

Your figures are wrong. 25,000 to 30,000 tests went to Germany but about 16,000 are already back. The positives from those 16,000 cases are included in your figures already. The German tests have only had a positive rate of about 6% (1000 / 16000 * 100). If that rate stays the same for the rest, then we're talking about an extra 1,000 cases there at the most. Also, some of those positive cases are already recovered or dead and not spreading anymore. So, your figures for growth are off as well.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 03:09PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

With those figures you are assuming that no one since the outbreak started has either gotten better or died from the virus. Cases that started 4-5 weeks ago the vast majority will have recovered so they cannot still be infecting people.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Your figures are wrong. 25,000 to 30,000 tests went to Germany but about 16,000 are already back. The positives from those 16,000 cases are included in your figures already. The German tests have only had a positive rate of about 6% (1000 / 16000 * 100). If that rate stays the same for the rest, then we're talking about an extra 1,000 cases there at the most. Also, some of those positive cases are already recovered or dead and not spreading anymore. So, your figures for growth are off as well.

He either knows all that or he is the village idiot.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 03:10PM

jackboy wrote: »

As soon as the restrictions ease, infections and deaths will rapidly rise. So easing the restrictions is going the herd immunity route that Boris was mocked for.

Don’t for a minute think that low level social distancing and hand washing will stop this virus exploding. That would be no more than wishful thinking.

There would be very little difference ending the restrictions today compared with ending them in a few weeks time.

Unless it gives us time to ramp up capacity for testing, contact tracing and ICU capacity

Nermal · 12-04-2020 03:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No one is arguing for an indefinite "lock down".

No one says it, but the suppression policy amounts to the same thing.

Just look at Singapore. A highly compliant population finding that testing, tracing and wearing masks is not sufficient. They have to be accompanied by lockdowns that are totally intolerable even in the medium term.

We need to recognise that suppression is a failure and move to mitigation.

And we need to do it now, before what remains of our economy is thrown on the bonfire.

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 03:12PM

Lundstram wrote: »

An edgy athiest

Athiest? Yes correct because i’m smart. Edgy? Wrong. More incorrect assumptions on this thread ;-)

poppers · 12-04-2020 03:12PM

This thread has virtually turned into thesoccer forum
"My team can do no wrong your team is doing everything wrong"

jackboy · 12-04-2020 03:14PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Unless it gives us time to ramp up capacity for testing, contact tracing and ICU capacity

Testing and contract tracing will not slow down the virus. ICU capacity will help but will quickly get overwhelmed and there is a high death rate in ICU. We need a better plan than easing restrictions in a few weeks time because that won’t work.

An Ciarraioch · 12-04-2020 03:15PM

Nermal wrote: »

No one says it, but the suppression policy amounts to the same thing.

Just look at Singapore. A highly compliant population finding that testing, tracing and wearing masks is not sufficient. They have to be accompanied by lockdowns that are totally intolerable even in the medium term.

We need to recognise that suppression is a failure and move to mitigation.

And we need to do it now, before what remains of our economy is thrown on the bonfire.

The policy can only change if the number of new cases and deaths consistently fall for at least a week, and ideally a fortnight, otherwise the resultant spike on a return to normality would require a second lockdown.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 03:16PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Athiest? Yes correct because i’m smart. Edgy? Wrong. More incorrect assumptions on this thread ;-)

More edge...

If you had any more edges, you'd be a circle

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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