Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

easypazz · 12-04-2020 01:59PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What parts have I got wrong?

You already know.

Lord Fairlord · 12-04-2020 02:01PM

Corriere Della Sera saying that in Treviso, for the first three months of 2020, hospital deaths are in line with previous years.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 02:01PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely. There's no stopping this until vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

You already know the above is bullsh1t don't you.

Lundstram · 12-04-2020 02:01PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

No he didn’t, he never existed IMO.

An edgy athiest, just what we need. :rolleyes:

lawred2 · 12-04-2020 02:02PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No death is really acceptable but this cant go on until a vaccine is found. Longer a shutdown goes on, the worse the economic effects and the domino effect then on other services including even more pressure on health in time to come.

At the end of the day, we live with the annual consequences of the flu.

Not saying that they are the same but living with sometimes deadly viruses isn't anything new.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-04-2020 02:03PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

There may never be a vaccine, this could be similar to a common cold issue. Except with worse effect

The most important thing is that this never happens again.

What if this was 20 times as deadly a virus?

It is frightening how the world allowed China to turn a blind eye to dangerous customs in parts of their country time and time again that puts the whole world at risk (and it's not only China) then they go on to try and cover it up.

I hope that this is the end of that but I'd say we all have our doubts.

The world needs to lean on China after this.

It's too dangerous.

jackboy · 12-04-2020 02:03PM

As soon as the restrictions ease, infections and deaths will rapidly rise. So easing the restrictions is going the herd immunity route that Boris was mocked for.

Don’t for a minute think that low level social distancing and hand washing will stop this virus exploding. That would be no more than wishful thinking.

There would be very little difference ending the restrictions today compared with ending them in a few weeks time.

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 02:03PM

easypazz wrote: »

You already know the above is bullsh1t don't you.

We've known for a while your a FG bot.

woohoo!!! · 12-04-2020 02:04PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

What parts have I got wrong?

I think the vast majority of the world were not in any way prepared for a pandemic of this nature, bar some Asian countries. I think european countries have had varying degrees of successes and failures. Above all, who knows how long a viable vaccine is away from mass production.

I understand your frustration, I do. We are winging it largely down to the issues raised in the paragraph above. So the real question is how are we doing it on a largely winging it approach? I'd say, good on some aspects and not so good on others. Reliable testing seems to be the key and after a decent start, there has been a very disappointing lag. But this is a marathon I think and it's proper scientific understanding of this thing, which takes time, before we can come out the other side.

Hindsight is great but neither do we have a crystal ball.

jam_mac_jam · 12-04-2020 02:04PM

Lord Fairlord wrote: »

Corriere Della Sera saying that in Treviso, for the first three months of 2020, hospital deaths are in line with previous years.

With no numbers I expect you can say whatever you like.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 02:04PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Source

Limited supply of proprofol, fentanyl and noradrenaline, all used for patients on ventilators, reported in the UK today.

kwestfan08 · 12-04-2020 02:05PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

With those figures you are assuming that no one since the outbreak started has either gotten better or died from the virus. Cases that started 4-5 weeks ago the vast majority will have recovered so they cannot still be infecting people.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 02:05PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We've known for a while your a FG bot.

Nobody is falling for your efforts.

Report card: Needs to try a lot harder.

AlmightyCushion · 12-04-2020 02:07PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

Your figures are wrong. 25,000 to 30,000 tests went to Germany but about 16,000 are already back. The positives from those 16,000 cases are included in your figures already. The German tests have only had a positive rate of about 6% (1000 / 16000 * 100). If that rate stays the same for the rest, then we're talking about an extra 1,000 cases there at the most. Also, some of those positive cases are already recovered or dead and not spreading anymore. So, your figures for growth are off as well.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 02:09PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

With those figures you are assuming that no one since the outbreak started has either gotten better or died from the virus. Cases that started 4-5 weeks ago the vast majority will have recovered so they cannot still be infecting people.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Your figures are wrong. 25,000 to 30,000 tests went to Germany but about 16,000 are already back. The positives from those 16,000 cases are included in your figures already. The German tests have only had a positive rate of about 6% (1000 / 16000 * 100). If that rate stays the same for the rest, then we're talking about an extra 1,000 cases there at the most. Also, some of those positive cases are already recovered or dead and not spreading anymore. So, your figures for growth are off as well.

He either knows all that or he is the village idiot.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 02:10PM

jackboy wrote: »

As soon as the restrictions ease, infections and deaths will rapidly rise. So easing the restrictions is going the herd immunity route that Boris was mocked for.

Don’t for a minute think that low level social distancing and hand washing will stop this virus exploding. That would be no more than wishful thinking.

There would be very little difference ending the restrictions today compared with ending them in a few weeks time.

Unless it gives us time to ramp up capacity for testing, contact tracing and ICU capacity

Nermal · 12-04-2020 02:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No one is arguing for an indefinite "lock down".

No one says it, but the suppression policy amounts to the same thing.

Just look at Singapore. A highly compliant population finding that testing, tracing and wearing masks is not sufficient. They have to be accompanied by lockdowns that are totally intolerable even in the medium term.

We need to recognise that suppression is a failure and move to mitigation.

And we need to do it now, before what remains of our economy is thrown on the bonfire.

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 02:12PM

Lundstram wrote: »

An edgy athiest

Athiest? Yes correct because i’m smart. Edgy? Wrong. More incorrect assumptions on this thread ;-)

poppers · 12-04-2020 02:12PM

This thread has virtually turned into thesoccer forum
"My team can do no wrong your team is doing everything wrong"

jackboy · 12-04-2020 02:14PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Unless it gives us time to ramp up capacity for testing, contact tracing and ICU capacity

Testing and contract tracing will not slow down the virus. ICU capacity will help but will quickly get overwhelmed and there is a high death rate in ICU. We need a better plan than easing restrictions in a few weeks time because that won’t work.

An Ciarraioch · 12-04-2020 02:15PM

Nermal wrote: »

No one says it, but the suppression policy amounts to the same thing.

Just look at Singapore. A highly compliant population finding that testing, tracing and wearing masks is not sufficient. They have to be accompanied by lockdowns that are totally intolerable even in the medium term.

We need to recognise that suppression is a failure and move to mitigation.

And we need to do it now, before what remains of our economy is thrown on the bonfire.

The policy can only change if the number of new cases and deaths consistently fall for at least a week, and ideally a fortnight, otherwise the resultant spike on a return to normality would require a second lockdown.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 02:16PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Athiest? Yes correct because i’m smart. Edgy? Wrong. More incorrect assumptions on this thread ;-)

More edge...

If you had any more edges, you'd be a circle

Humilde · 12-04-2020 02:16PM

What needs to start happening already is that China must now allow an independent international alliance of scientists to have a continuous presence in that country with access to all areas of their health system. Until this happens, even if we do get a vaccine, we will never know what new bug from some wet market is lurking around the corner.

Doctors room ghost · 12-04-2020 02:17PM

rosiem wrote: »

To be fair one of them should have explained the running joke that she refers to her husband as the painter/gardener but I think you are overly offended by a LLS segment. I found Amy discussing her worries having her Dad in a nursing home very interesting she also tried to keep positive and upbeat which I think most people appreciate.

That’s my bad but if it was a joke it went straight over my head and I probably wouldn’t get her sense of humour.she said the painter and gardener and no more was said about it so apologies for me taking it up wrong.

rosiem · 12-04-2020 02:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

Why are you deliberately mis using the figures to create a worst case scenario you are so wrong in your above scenario you really need to sit down at look at the numbers correctly and stop just trying to spread doom and gloom. It seems you are revelling in misery very strange outlook to have I can only assume you are a miserable person determined to drag others down with you.

Happy Easter hope some chocolate helps your mood

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 02:18PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

..

If you had any more edges, you'd be a circle

Maybe you should educate yourself a little and realise circles don’t have edges, stop talking complete utter nonsense.

12-04-2020 02:23PM

I see Tim Brooke-Taylor, of Goodies fame, has died of coronavirus, r.i.p.

Doctors room ghost · 12-04-2020 02:24PM

easypazz wrote: »

I didn't see it but I didn't need it explained to me that the gardener wasn't really in the hall at 10pm on a Friday night.

Cheers for that from the person advising people to go out tomorrow to buy half price Easter eggs and everyone being advised to remain at home unless the trip is essential.That’s great advice you are dispensing.
That segment of the show you mention was also pre recorded so you’re theory on the 10pm thing is also wrong.
Many thanks and happy Easter

Nermal · 12-04-2020 02:24PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The policy can only change if the number of new cases and deaths consistently fall for at least a week, and ideally a fortnight, otherwise the resultant spike on a return to normality would require a second lockdown.

Not acceptable. The level of lockdown required to achieve long-term stabilisation of cases/deaths isn’t sustainable.

wakka12 · 12-04-2020 02:28PM

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/11/ten-straight-drops-covid-19-hospitalizations-coronavirus-deaths-near-2650

Number of people hospitalised with COVID has droppped or a tenth day straight in the Netherlands, from a peak of 500 admissions 10 days ago to just under 70 new hospitalisations today.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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