Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

gabeeg · 11-04-2020 11:13PM

owlbethere wrote: »

The residents of nursing homes are more susceptible to the virus. Once in got in to nursing home, the nursing home deaths would slightly skew things.

If anyone is interested in working out a maths solution for me, I think that wou3 be good.

Is there anywhere to find out how many people or residents are in nursing homes? Like before the virus started hitting them. Like maybe would the census provide that information.

If theres a figure for that, that can be subtracted from Irelands population number.

Then we take our total number of cases and we know 54% of deaths are from nursing homes.
That would leave 46% of deaths from the general population.

If anyone would like to figure out the head of population from that, if there's any way.

How do we know that?

11-04-2020 11:14PM

michellie wrote: »

To your man earlier who wanted to set off a load of lanterns with his neighbours. THIS is what happens

http://imgur.com/gallery/eRs5NRE

The same poster was talking about heading to their holiday home two weeks ago and other style of posts since, a WUM

11-04-2020 11:15PM

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Lads ye all need to chillax the kax! Sinn Fein +Conor McGregor have got this sorted!!

McGregor donated a million of his own money and seems genuinely interested in helping out during this crisis. Fair play to him i say.

fullstop · 11-04-2020 11:15PM

sterz wrote: »

Is the number of deaths per 1 million even reliable? Is each country recording the deaths in the exact same manner? My understanding is that Ireland are including those deaths in nursing homes whereas other countries are not.

The numbers are not even remotely reliable. Worldometer has Ireland listed as having more Covid-19 deaths than Ecuador.

In Ecuador people are leaving bodies to rot in the streets because they have nowhere to put them. But we're doing worse than them, apparently.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/world/americas/ecuador-coronavirus.html

amadangomor · 11-04-2020 11:15PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Wow that light in the window ****e is a joke. **** off. Some actually enjoying this lockdown crap.

I had a great day.

In the garden with the kids all day and then cracking open a bottle of wine at around four. Sitting in the sun probably getting burned because of my too short DIY Polish brickie style haircut. Bliss

caveat emptor · 11-04-2020 11:15PM

1641 wrote: »

I would be interested in knowing more about this. Is there any data or reputable report?
My own anecdotal evidence from relatives and acquaintances is that people agonise deeply about accepting it on behalf of a family member.
I am intersted personally as I am considering an advance care directive. My biggest concern is that doctors and professional medicine generally is over-fixated on interventions to "prolong life", as this is what they are trained to do. While in many situations what they are actually doing is "prolonging death". I want to live as long as I can - in reasonable health, hopefully. I do not want pointless (and frightening) resuscitation when I am approaching death anyway.

Thanks for broaching the subject. I can only speak from personal experience where family members were in debt and a relative would endow a significant inheritance on their death. There are clear conflicts of interests which AFAIK are not taken into account.

I suppose it's up to the person. It becomes difficult when faculties are failing and power of attorney is granted.

I don't know. I hope it's not the case. I'd be interested to see the data too. I think there is an opinion that it is a death sentence. It certainly is if no medical treatment rendered.

owlbethere · 11-04-2020 11:16PM

gabeeg wrote: »

How do we know that?

That was mentioned some where. 54% is from nursing homes. From Tony. Maybe it was from earlier in the week.

Ficheall · 11-04-2020 11:16PM

Ficheall wrote: »

blackcard wrote: »

If I walked from my home until I came to the arc of a 2 km circle, went right around the arc and then walked home, I would have travelled ~ 16.7km.

Where's that extra 0.1km sneaking in, you sly divil?

blackcard wrote: »

Ficheall wrote: »

Where's that extra 0.1km sneaking in, you sly divil?

2 * 3.1416 * 2 = 12.5664 km, corrected to 2 decimal places = 12.57 km.
Add 4km = 16.57 QED

I see you've gone back now and edited the number in your original post. QED, indeed :rolleyes:

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:16PM

owlbethere wrote: »

The residents of nursing homes are more susceptible to the virus. Once in got in to nursing home, the nursing home deaths would slightly skew things.

If anyone is interested in working out a maths solution for me, I think that wou3 be good.

Is there anywhere to find out how many people or residents are in nursing homes? Like before the virus started hitting them. Like maybe would the census provide that information.

If theres a figure for that, that can be subtracted from Irelands population number.

Then we take our total number of cases and we know 54% of deaths are from nursing homes.
That would leave 46% of deaths from the general population.

If anyone would like to figure out the head of population from that, if there's any way.

I don’t think it’s valid to exclude nursing home deaths , they are “ valid “ COVID deaths even if , they will all obviously die sooner rather then later

Using deaths per 1m pop does not paint Ireland well , the USA is lower then is, obviously it depends on where the peaks are , but informed opinion , in the US has speculated they are near peak deaths and were supposed to be ahead , s9 what gives ?

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:20PM

fullstop wrote: »

The numbers are not even remotely reliable. Worldometer has Ireland listed as having more Covid-19 deaths than Ecuador.

In Ecuador people are leaving bodies to rot in the streets because they have nowhere to put them. But we're doing worse than them, apparently.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/world/americas/ecuador-coronavirus.html

These countries have very limited infrastructure , so a small surge in deaths overwhelms them. Doesn’t make the number unreliable because of that head line

The Great Gatsby · 11-04-2020 11:23PM

easypazz wrote: »

They don't want to be comparing themselves to the island next door that is doing way better than them.

. . . well, they wouldn't want to be comparing themselves to their other former colonies across the pond either . . . the UK numbers are statistically way worse than the US . . . much of the British media coverage has been about the overall numbers in the States (with a population 5 times bigger than the UK) and about the resurrection of Boris, conveniently ignoring how bad their own numbers are . . .

11-04-2020 11:24PM

Strazdas wrote: »

An Oxford University professor (Sarah Gilbert) thinks a vaccine could be ready as soon as September.

You would really hope so.....lots of gloomy speculation across the board today that restrictions and social distancing could easily go on for another year at least worldwide (causing havoc for economies, travel, tourism and sport).

Vaccines and herd immunity might not be real options. Hard eradication looks like it would work. Lockdown s are already in place, why not go the whole hog:

Some patients who recover from COVID-19 develop very few antibodies, a new early-stage study suggests, raising questions over the development of a vaccine and whether people get lasting immunity.

Nearly a third of 175 patients studied produced low antibody levels. In 10 people, antibody levels were so low they could not be detected. https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEAyfi_G51wDeK5hd3WxYPpIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowgNjvCjCC3s8BML6jmwY?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

Interestingly, the levels of antibodies patients produced seemed to correlate with their ages: Middle-aged and elderly recovered patients had higher levels of antibodies. Nine of the 10 of the patients who did not develop detectable levels of coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger.

8% — didn’t have any detectable coronavirus antibodies in their systems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4?amp=&r=AU&IR=T

Ace2007 · 11-04-2020 11:25PM

owlbethere wrote: »

The residents of nursing homes are more susceptible to the virus. Once in got in to nursing home, the nursing home deaths would slightly skew things.

If anyone is interested in working out a maths solution for me, I think that would be good.

Is there anywhere to find out how many people or residents are in nursing homes? Like before the virus started hitting them. Like maybe would the census provide that information.

If theres a figure for that, that can be subtracted from Irelands population number.

Then we take our total number of death cases and we know 54% of deaths are from nursing homes.
That would leave 46% of deaths from the general population.

If anyone would like to figure out the head of population from that, if there's any way.

No idea what your looking to calculate or why, but there are a reported 30,000 in nursing homes. Seems a little on the low side to me, but that's the figure going around.

joe_99 · 11-04-2020 11:25PM

BoatMad wrote: »

Using deaths per 1m pop does not paint Ireland well , the USA is lower then is, obviously it depends on where the peaks are , but informed opinion , in the US has speculated they are near peak deaths and were supposed to be ahead , s9 what gives ?

We are not counting deaths in the same way as the states. We are testing more people therefore finding more positives. If a person dies with a positive result in the past they are counted as a covid 19 death. If I test positive, self isolate and then fall down the stairs and die I will be a covid 19 death. A lot of countries as a result are only counting hospital deaths.

Our death rate is maxed due to very high testing and then including as positive tests on death certs

Kermit.de.frog · 11-04-2020 11:25PM

Italy is kinda meandering around the same place the past week with not much progress since Tuesday.

That's with lock down measures as severe as they can possibly be for a functioning democracy.

Hard to see how they can release the tougher measures without this spiraling out of control.

Hopefully they can make a serious dent in the next few days. They need to and to be honest it's not a good sign for the rest of us either if despite all the measures they struggle to contain.

11-04-2020 11:25PM

owlbethere wrote: »

The residents of nursing homes are more susceptible to the virus. Once in got in to nursing home, the nursing home deaths would slightly skew things.

If anyone is interested in working out a maths solution for me, I think that would be good.

Is there anywhere to find out how many people or residents are in nursing homes? Like before the virus started hitting them. Like maybe would the census provide that information.

If theres a figure for that, that can be subtracted from Irelands population number.

Then we take our total number of death cases and we know 54% of deaths are from nursing homes.
That would leave 46% of deaths from the general population.

If anyone would like to figure out the head of population from that, if there's any way.

There are approximately 22,500 residents across 460 nursing homes in Ireland.

Martina1991 · 11-04-2020 11:26PM

bekker wrote:

Please quote just one peer reviewed article on COVID-19.

Yes there would be very few.

So i dont know why people are taking a number of 30% as fact.

DevilsHaircut · 11-04-2020 11:26PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Thanks for broaching the subject. I can only speak from personal experience where family members were in debt and a relative would endow a significant inheritance on their death. There are clear conflicts of interests which AFAIK are not taken into account.

I suppose it's up to the person. It becomes difficult when faculties are failing and power of attorney is granted.

I don't know. I hope it's not the case. I'd be interested to see the data too. I think there is an opinion that it is a death sentence. It certainly is if no medical treatment rendered.

A DNR doesn't mean that no treatment is given.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/08/do-not-resuscitate-orders-caused-panic-uk-truth

Michael Dwyer · 11-04-2020 11:26PM

Has, US president, Donald Duck, had a conference this evening?

joe_99 · 11-04-2020 11:27PM

BoatMad wrote: »

These countries have very limited infrastructure , so a small surge in deaths overwhelms them. Doesn’t make the number unreliable because of that head line

If you are not in the system and tested those numbers will never be recorded which surpresses the death rate monumentally

Beasty · 11-04-2020 11:27PM

So, if this 30% "false negative" is a reasonable estimate, then that puts a very different light on things

Let's say 15% of tests are positive, and there are no "false positives"

That means 85% of tests are "false negatives"

30% x 85% = around 25%

What that would mean is of those we have tested, 15% are positive and 25% are false negative. ie 40% of those tested are actually positive.

It also means the tests are picking up a lot less than half of those infected. That creates a massive issue for the HSE and its staff.

It also means that our cumulative 9,000 or so positives translates to 24,000 "real" positives

Of course, this is severely limited because not everyone with symptoms are tested. We could easily have double and probably a lot more people with symptoms who are really "positive" - Say 50,000. Then there have been suggestions that up to 80% could be asymptomatic. If that is the case we could be nearer 250,000 actual positives or 5% of the population

What this re-emphasises is the need for everyone to social distance. We probably are mostly going to be getting this - some will have had it but never realised, and some may get it in a second or third wave. Yes a vaccine will help, but we may well already have some form of herd immunity by the time one is available (assuming there is some lasting immunity once this virus has been caught by someone)

Kermit.de.frog · 11-04-2020 11:28PM

I have done my impending doom post for the evening, here are some cats to balance it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY7m5jjJ9mM

11-04-2020 11:29PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Yes there would be very few.

So i dont know why people are taking a number of 30% as fact.

Especially when they don't apparently trust the numbers from China in relation to anything else

BoatMad · 11-04-2020 11:29PM

joe_99 wrote: »

If you are not in the system and tested those numbers will never be recorded which surpresses the death rate monumentally

You can speculate all u like , all we have are the numbers , on that basis I did the comparison

DevilsHaircut · 11-04-2020 11:31PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Three people have posted the same link. Its unsubstantiated and not peer reviewed.

Based on one report from China. It didn't even say what platform they used.

Another study of PCR test reliability '...we found a potentially high false negative rate of RT‐PCR testing for SARS‐CoV‐2 in hospitalized patients in Wuhan... Furthermore, the RT‐PCR results showed a fluctuating trend.'

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jmv.25786

easypazz · 11-04-2020 11:33PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Italy is kinda meandering around the same place the past week with not much progress since Tuesday.

That's with lock down measures as severe as they can possibly be for a functioning democracy.

Hard to see how they can release the tougher measures without this spiraling out of control.

Hopefully they can make a serious dent in the next few days. They need to and to be honest it's not a good sign for the rest of us either if despite all the measures they struggle to contain.

The issue in Italy is it is spreading north to south.

There would be a similar fear here, Dublin might become an epicentre then 3 weeks later other, less populated, regions take up the slack.

joe_99 · 11-04-2020 11:33PM

BoatMad wrote: »

You can speculate all u like , all we have are the numbers , on that basis I did the comparison

Unless the numbers are recorded using the same criteria across each nation then it is pure speculation to compare them. Comparison are beyond useless

iguana · 11-04-2020 11:33PM

BoatMad wrote: »

Looking at worldometer and the number of deaths per 1million pop , Ireland is worse then the USA , which is a bit worrying , none of the other numbers are reliable so I don’t rate comparisons using them

If you look at the US itself it does a state by state breakdown. Many states still have very low death rates right now. (And hopefully will continue to.) However if you compare US states to countries, the worst in the world (with the exception of San Marino) is New York state with 440 deaths per million. New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington and District of Columbia all have higher mortality rates per million than the US average (and therefore, us).

take everything · 11-04-2020 11:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Vaccines and herd immunity might not be real options. Hard eradication looks like it would work. Lockdown s are already in place, why not go the whole hog:

Some patients who recover from COVID-19 develop very few antibodies, a new early-stage study suggests, raising questions over the development of a vaccine and whether people get lasting immunity.

Nearly a third of 175 patients studied produced low antibody levels. In 10 people, antibody levels were so low they could not be detected. https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEAyfi_G51wDeK5hd3WxYPpIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowgNjvCjCC3s8BML6jmwY?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU%3Aen

Interestingly, the levels of antibodies patients produced seemed to correlate with their ages: Middle-aged and elderly recovered patients had higher levels of antibodies. Nine of the 10 of the patients who did not develop detectable levels of coronavirus antibodies were 40 years old or younger.

8% — didn’t have any detectable coronavirus antibodies in their systems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/study-recovered-coronavirus-patients-antibodies-2020-4?amp=&r=AU&IR=T

This virus is a real ****er.
Orders of magnitude deadlier than flu.
Asymptomatic spread.
Diverse in its seriousness sowing almost a misguided nonchalance about it.
And now it doesn't seem to promote much of an antibody response, making immunity uncertain. Or even a vaccine uncertain.

DevilsHaircut · 11-04-2020 11:36PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

Especially when they don't apparently trust the numbers from China in relation to anything else

Data from the Chinese government and research from Chinese doctors and scientists are different things.

(BTW I'm not saying that I distrust the Chinese government data.)

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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