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Property Market 2020

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    #4082
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I think people might be noticing more coming into their price range as well due to quite a number of places reducing their asking prices. I am not seeing a huge increase in the total overall numbers on daft but there is definitely a downward correction in asking prices.

    I think it's fair to say that every indication is that purchase prices will fall quite a bit. If rental prices fall then investors are willing to pay less to achieve a reasonable yield so investor type properties are certain to fall in response. Surely this alone will drag the market down. What are we looking at a 20 - 30 % decline in prices ? I think 10% is a certainty 20% is likely and 30% if it gets pretty bad with unemployment etc. Painful times ahead for recent purchasers.


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    #4083
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think it's fair to say that every indication is that purchase prices will fall quite a bit. If rental prices fall then investors are willing to pay less to achieve a reasonable yield so investor type properties are certain to fall in response. Surely this alone will drag the market down. What are we looking at a 20 - 30 % decline in prices ? I think 10% is a certainty 20% is likely and 30% if it gets pretty bad with unemployment etc. Painful times ahead for recent purchasers.

    Well not every indicator there is still a supply issue. Not sure what the drops will be cant see 30 or 20% and I can see it rising a lot more rapidly than the last crash. There will be a spending frenzy once corona is gone. I reckon unemployment will be the trend if more employment go the way of debenhams then we could be looking at a double figure drop. But how much and how long it will last is anyones guess


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    #4084
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well not every indicator there is still a supply issue. Not sure what the drops will be cant see 30 or 20% and I can see it rising a lot more rapidly than the last crash. There will be a spending frenzy once corona is gone. I reckon unemployment will be the trend if more employment go the way of debenhams then we could be looking at a double figure drop. But how much and how long it will last is anyones guess

    I think the supply issue is about to remedy itself with scores of apartments sitting empty as it is and more under development ,air bnb virtually wiped out and all the foreign workers with no ties here looking to repatriate. Its tourists and migrant workers that created the supply issue here. We had families in hotels and tourists renting homes on airbnb. Personally I think the supply issue is redundant.


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    #4085
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well not every indicator there is still a supply issue. Not sure what the drops will be cant see 30 or 20% and I can see it rising a lot more rapidly than the last crash. There will be a spending frenzy once corona is gone. I reckon unemployment will be the trend if more employment go the way of debenhams then we could be looking at a double figure drop. But how much and how long it will last is anyones guess

    I'm not sure I understand why you think there will be a spending frenzy once Corona is gone. Even people who haven't lost their jobs have been performing financial acrobatics just to keep going. Sure- there will be a number of birthdays or other significant events that people might have decided to put on the long finger until better times- but they're one off events. Most normal people don't eat out other than infrequently- even people in reasonable paying jobs wouldn't have been able to afford to other than on special occasions.

    As for large ticket items- car sales, tvs and household appliances- had all fallen off a cliff *before* Covid entered the arena- Covid was not the factor that constrained them (although it has obviously brought them to a complete halt at the moment).

    I genuinely hope that the economic damage is not as severe as it might be- however, I do think that you're painting an abnormally rosy picture if you imagine that things are simply going to go back to business as usual.

    Debenhams (and a few others) had very spotty trading statements (at Christmas) and while Corvid may be the straw that breaks the camel's back- trading was not going well for a goodly time beforehand.

    We were very much at an abnormal economic peak- possibly at the start of a decline- before everything went to hell on a broomstick.


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    #4086
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think the supply issue is about to remedy itself with scores of apartments sitting empty as it is and more under development ,air bnb virtually wiped out and all the foreign workers with no ties here looking to repatriate. Its tourists and migrant workers that created the supply issue here. We had families in hotels and tourists renting homes on airbnb. Personally I think the supply issue is redundant.

    I dont think there are that many apartments lying empty. Maybe some due to vultures funds and Air b&b but a lot of these will go into the rental supply chain. Not all foreign workers have gone home a lot have stayed due to the very favorable welfare option. We also have a lot of Irish returning home as well. Sure we will wait and see its anyone guess how many have gone and how many have returned back to irelnad.


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    #4087
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The pubs, cafes, restaurants etc will definitely get a massive boost as soon as they are allowed to open again, the only question is if it’s a sustained thing or just an initial surge followed by a drop off in custom.

    People will have been cooped up in the house for months at that stage, they’ll be counting down the days to get out.

    There’ll be good money to be made if you’re a babysitter too I reckon!


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    #4088
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I'm not sure I understand why you think there will be a spending frenzy once Corona is gone. Even people who haven't lost their jobs have been performing financial acrobatics just to keep going. Sure- there will be a number of birthdays or other significant events that people might have decided to put on the long finger until better times- but they're one off events. Most normal people don't eat out other than infrequently- even people in reasonable paying jobs wouldn't have been able to afford to other than on special occasions.

    As for large ticket items- car sales, tvs and household appliances- had all fallen off a cliff *before* Covid entered the arena- Covid was not the factor that constrained them (although it has obviously brought them to a complete halt at the moment).

    I genuinely hope that the economic damage is not as severe as it might be- however, I do think that you're painting an abnormally rosy picture if you imagine that things are simply going to go back to business as usual.

    Debenhams (and a few others) had very spotty trading statements (at Christmas) and while Corvid may be the straw that breaks the camel's back- trading was not going well for a goodly time beforehand.

    We were very much at an abnormal economic peak- possibly at the start of a decline- before everything went to hell on a broomstick.

    Well its just hearsay with family members already planning nights out, weekends away, being in each others company again. Not saying we will be out buying property but there will be dinners out , nights out in the pub and weekends away it all will add to being able to see and hug loved ones again


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    #4089
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think the supply issue is about to remedy itself with scores of apartments sitting empty as it is and more under development ,air bnb virtually wiped out and all the foreign workers with no ties here looking to repatriate. Its tourists and migrant workers that created the supply issue here. We had families in hotels and tourists renting homes on airbnb. Personally I think the supply issue is redundant.

    The only sector of the market those Airbnb apartments will help is people looking to buy apartments.

    People waiting to buy 3/4 bed houses are not going to suddenly buy an apartment instead just because there’s lots available.

    Definitely good news for renters, good news if you want to buy an apartment, not much use for anyone else.


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    #4090
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    awec wrote: »
    The pubs, cafes, restaurants etc will definitely get a massive boost as soon as they are allowed to open again, the only question is if it’s a sustained thing or just an initial surge followed by a drop off in custom..

    Pubs etc will take a lot lot longer to open than many other retail units. Though I will be counting down the days till they open as well. :D


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    #4091
    Das Reich
    Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭Das Reich


    dor843088 wrote: »
    I think the supply issue is about to remedy itself with scores of apartments sitting empty as it is and more under development ,air bnb virtually wiped out and all the foreign workers with no ties here looking to repatriate. Its tourists and migrant workers that created the supply issue here. We had families in hotels and tourists renting homes on airbnb. Personally I think the supply issue is redundant.

    Yes be sure I will repatriate to my country and getting 200 € per month with the cost of live nearly the same as here.


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    #4092
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Pubs etc will take a lot lot longer to open than many other retail units. Though I will be counting down the days till they open as well. :D

    Yea they’ll be waiting a while and there’ll be restrictions.

    But as soon as those places open there’ll be no shortage of custom. Even if people are tight with money we’ve never experienced a time when we’ve literally been confined to our homes with zero social interaction like we are now. People will be desperate to get out.

    I do think the majority who lost their job in the hospitality sector will be getting it back relatively quickly once restrictions are eased.

    Retail workers maybe not so much.


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    #4093
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,281 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    awec wrote: »
    Yea they’ll be waiting a while and there’ll be restrictions.

    But as soon as those places open there’ll be no shortage of custom. Even if people are tight with money we’ve never experienced a time when we’ve literally been confined to our homes with zero social interaction like we are now. People will be desperate to get out.

    I do think the majority who lost their job in the hospitality sector will be getting it back relatively quickly once restrictions are eased.

    Retail workers maybe not so much.
    Hospitality including hotels? I don't think that will be coming back in any great hurry, particularly foreign tourism. Not in 2020.

    Would you really want to sit beside a stranger for a few hours on an aircraft, in this climate? The whole airline industry may have to radically adapt, if passengers refuse to be crammed into aircraft as in the past.

    The days we get back to normal, there will be a big blow out, lots of drinking and the like. But that will only last a few days, as the depressing reality will be dawning that a lot of citizens do not have jobs to go back to.


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    #4094
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Tourism and AirBnB will come back so that is just a temporary affect.


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    #4095
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Hospitality including hotels? I don't think that will be coming back in any great hurry, particularly foreign tourism. Not in 2020.

    Would you really want to sit beside a stranger for a few hours on an aircraft, in this climate? The whole airline industry may have to radically adapt, if passengers refuse to be crammed into aircraft as in the past.

    The days we get back to normal, there will be a big blow out, lots of drinking and the like. But that will only last a few days, as the depressing reality will be dawning that a lot of citizens do not have jobs to go back to.

    Hotels is much harder to predict because it's hard to know what people's attitude will be toward travel after this all over and restrictions on travel are lifted. Will they be afraid to go anywhere, or will they be dying to get away.

    Many citizens will have lost their jobs, but there'll also be many who are out of work right now who'll be straight back to work. Hairdressers, beauty salons etc will be booked out for weeks. Barbers will be queued out the door.

    The current job loss figures are very high, and the net loss when this is all over will be significant, but the reality is that many of these jobs are gone currently because the government is forbidding people from doing things that they would otherwise be doing right now.

    The ultimate result, IMO, will be an unemployment figure much higher than it was pre-covid, but much lower than it is right now.

    But that's just my own guess.


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    #4096
    o2bearebel
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭o2bearebel


    Still interested to hear if new house property launch prices have already been affected by the pending recession?

    Anyone know of developments where prices have dropped already?


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    #4097
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    o2bearebel wrote: »
    Still interested to hear if new house property launch prices have already been affected by the pending recession?

    Anyone know of developments where prices have dropped already?

    It's still way too early to see that. Construction has stopped, developers will be selling nothing right now.


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    #4098
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    awec wrote: »
    It's still way too early to see that. Construction has stopped, developers will be selling nothing right now.


    Theres a new estate with 12 houses being built across the road from my parents house. Construction ramped up about two years ago and the houses were nearly finished then. Then it slowed down for some reason with only a few workers on site for the last 9 months. There are none now. It had already looked to me like didnt want to complete those houses in a hurry. I dont know why though.


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    #4099
    mcbert
    Registered Users Posts: 460 ✭✭mcbert


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Theres a new estate with 12 houses being built across the road from my parents house. Construction ramped up about two years ago and the houses were nearly finished then. Then it slowed down for some reason with only a few workers on site for the last 9 months. There are none now. It had already looked to me like didnt want to complete those houses in a hurry. I dont know why though.


    West side of Galway city perhaps?


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    #4100
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Hospitality including hotels? I don't think that will be coming back in any great hurry, particularly foreign tourism. Not in 2020.

    Would you really want to sit beside a stranger for a few hours on an aircraft, in this climate? The whole airline industry may have to radically adapt, if passengers refuse to be crammed into aircraft as in the past.

    The days we get back to normal, there will be a big blow out, lots of drinking and the like. But that will only last a few days, as the depressing reality will be dawning that a lot of citizens do not have jobs to go back to.

    The test of consumer confidence will be when ryanair an other other transatlantic airlines launch sales and hotels offer very attractive packages. People live a bargain. Question is how will covid factor into that thinking? It will for some but not for others... added to this will be whatever stimulus the government add to economy


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    #4101
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    The only sector of the market those Airbnb apartments will help is people looking to buy apartments.

    People waiting to buy 3/4 bed houses are not going to suddenly buy an apartment instead just because there’s lots available.

    Definitely good news for renters, good news if you want to buy an apartment, not much use for anyone else.

    If rents drop meaningfully, purchase prices will drop as sure as night follows days.


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    #4102
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,280 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    schmittel wrote: »
    If rents drop meaningfully, purchase prices will drop as sure as night follows days.

    It really depends- certain segments of the market do not necessarily follow pure economic fundamentals. Never underestimate an Irish person's sheer *need* to buy property- regardless of what it costs to rent. Sentiment can in many cases completely over-rule common sense.


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    #4103
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    It really depends- certain segments of the market do not necessarily follow pure economic fundamentals. Never underestimate an Irish person's sheer *need* to buy property- regardless of what it costs to rent. Sentiment can in many cases completely over-rule common sense.

    If airbnb/tourism does not come back within 6 months I think rents will drop for one/two bed city apartments, and thus purchase prices for that market segment.

    I also think that will have a knock on effect across the entire market, the herd will follow prices down.

    Never underestimate an Irish persons sheer need for groupthink in the property market; true in falling markets as well as rising ones!


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    #4104
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    So many price drops on myhome.ie, only difference between now and the end of the year is you should add at least 15 percentage points to the majority of them. You are better off holding off purchasing (if you really don't need to now) Gurtna2 as now is only the beginning of the crash.


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    #4105
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    schmittel wrote: »
    If airbnb/tourism does not come back within 6 months I think rents will drop for one/two bed city apartments, and thus purchase prices for that market segment.

    I also think that will have a knock on effect across the entire market, the herd will follow prices down.

    Never underestimate an Irish persons sheer need for groupthink in the property market; true in falling markets as well as rising ones!

    Agreed, people are forgetting that the market will not behave rationally. Humans are experiencing a near all time fear level on a global scale. Many will decide to keep waiting to buy, thus driving prices down further. It's all human nature at the end of the day, works the same when the market is going up.


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    #4106
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    IndieRoar111 wrote: »
    So many price drops on myhome.ie, only difference between now and the end of the year is you should add at least 15 percentage points to the majority of them. You are better off holding off purchasing (if you really don't need to now) Gurtna2 as now is only the beginning of the crash.

    How many price drops? More than usual?


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    #4107
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    IndieRoar111 wrote: »
    Agreed, people are forgetting that the market will not behave rationally. Humans are experiencing a near all time fear level on a global scale. Many will decide to keep waiting to buy, thus driving prices down further. It's all human nature at the end of the day, works the same when the market is going up.

    This is not how it works in the real world.

    Prices will be driven down because people cannot buy any more, not that they have chosen not to or just all decided to wait.

    If it was a case of everyone waiting and then everyone buying then prices would just instantly skyrocket again as demand surges. If you want your bargains then you need a huge number of potential buyers removed from the market for the foreseeable future.

    In the real world when people are in a position to buy they will buy. There’s no collective “let’s all just wait.”


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    #4108
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,820 ✭✭✭hometruths


    awec wrote: »
    This is not how it works in the real world.

    Prices will be driven down because people cannot buy any more, not that they have chosen not to or just all decided to wait.

    If it was a case of everyone waiting and then everyone buying then prices would just instantly skyrocket again as demand surges. If you want your bargains then you need a huge number of potential buyers removed from the market for the foreseeable future.

    In the real world when people are in a position to buy they will buy. There’s no collective “let’s all just wait.”

    There is certainly anecdotal evidence on these boards that people who were sale agreed 6 weeks ago are wondering whether or not to proceed. Some have mentioned job security, others have mentioned fear of negative equity etc.

    Not quite a collective lets all just wait but it won't take much to tip it into that.


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    #4109
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭Villa05


    schmittel wrote:
    I also think that will have a knock on effect across the entire market, the herd will follow prices down.

    schmittel wrote:
    If airbnb/tourism does not come back within 6 months I think rents will drop for one/two bed city apartments, and thus purchase prices for that market segment.

    I'd b very surprised if this is not being monitored, most of that stuff on Airbnb is residential property that is not a ppr

    This is illegal and surely the regulator and revenue are monitoring this. Owners may be in for a nasty surprise when normality returns

    awec wrote:
    Prices will be driven down because people cannot buy any more, not that they have chosen not to or just all decided to wait.

    awec wrote:
    In the real world when people are in a position to buy they will buy. There’s no collective “let’s all just wait.â€

    Irish property is driven by sentiment far more so than real life norms. If you look at boards back in 2012/13 most of the debate was around how lower they could go rather than

    In real life normality in the Irish property market the majority can't afford to buy with the average age of ftbs well into their 30s

    One could argue that property prices are redefining real life norms such as when even if you have children


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    #4110
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    schmittel wrote: »
    There is certainly anecdotal evidence on these boards that people who were sale agreed 6 weeks ago are wondering whether or not to proceed. Some have mentioned job security, others have mentioned fear of negative equity etc.

    Not quite a collective lets all just wait but it won't take much to tip it into that.

    Yes, and it's easy to say that when we're in the midst of a pandemic, and government restrictions have effectively brought the market to a complete halt anyway.

    But at the other side of this, lets say December (who knows when really), people are either going to be employed and back looking at houses, or they'll be unemployed and owning a house will be a distant pipe dream.

    If you want your bargains, you're looking for scenario 2.

    If people are sitting there at the other side of this with income, deposits and mortgage approval they're going to buy. They'll maybe say they'll wait, then they'll see houses being sold, then they'll hear of others buying, and that "I'll wait" will become more difficult. Depending on how long the lockdown happens the shut down of the construction industry is going to have a short-term hit on supply.

    People will look after themselves first and foremost, there's no collective group think. "Everyone else is waiting so I'll wait" doesn't exist. Once they can afford a house they'll buy it. If it was as simple as everyone just waiting we'd have seen price drops before now.


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    #4111
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I'd b very surprised if this is not being monitored, most of that stuff on Airbnb is residential property that is not a ppr

    This is illegal and surely the regulator and revenue are monitoring this. Owners may be in for a nasty surprise when normality returns







    Irish property is driven by sentiment far more so than real life norms. If you look at boards back in 2012/13 most of the debate was around how lower they could go rather than

    In real life normality in the Irish property market the majority can't afford to buy with the average age of ftbs well into their 30s

    One could argue that property prices are redefining real life norms such as when even if you have children

    You are right here, home ownership is getting later in life and so are children. But this is just all the more reason as to why people buy houses when they can.

    As I said long ago in this thread, "just wait" is an entirely different prospect for a early/mid 20s single / no kids person than it is for someone in their 30s. Once you hit your mid 30s then you're no longer eligible for certain mortgages. You're getting to the age when you'll either have to buy, or just have your kids in that 2 bed apartment you're current living in. It's a harder decision.


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