dor843088 wrote: » I think it's fair to say that every indication is that purchase prices will fall quite a bit. If rental prices fall then investors are willing to pay less to achieve a reasonable yield so investor type properties are certain to fall in response. Surely this alone will drag the market down. What are we looking at a 20 - 30 % decline in prices ? I think 10% is a certainty 20% is likely and 30% if it gets pretty bad with unemployment etc. Painful times ahead for recent purchasers.
fliball123 wrote: » Well not every indicator there is still a supply issue. Not sure what the drops will be cant see 30 or 20% and I can see it rising a lot more rapidly than the last crash. There will be a spending frenzy once corona is gone. I reckon unemployment will be the trend if more employment go the way of debenhams then we could be looking at a double figure drop. But how much and how long it will last is anyones guess
dor843088 wrote: » I think the supply issue is about to remedy itself with scores of apartments sitting empty as it is and more under development ,air bnb virtually wiped out and all the foreign workers with no ties here looking to repatriate. Its tourists and migrant workers that created the supply issue here. We had families in hotels and tourists renting homes on airbnb. Personally I think the supply issue is redundant.
The_Conductor wrote: » I'm not sure I understand why you think there will be a spending frenzy once Corona is gone. Even people who haven't lost their jobs have been performing financial acrobatics just to keep going. Sure- there will be a number of birthdays or other significant events that people might have decided to put on the long finger until better times- but they're one off events. Most normal people don't eat out other than infrequently- even people in reasonable paying jobs wouldn't have been able to afford to other than on special occasions. As for large ticket items- car sales, tvs and household appliances- had all fallen off a cliff *before* Covid entered the arena- Covid was not the factor that constrained them (although it has obviously brought them to a complete halt at the moment). I genuinely hope that the economic damage is not as severe as it might be- however, I do think that you're painting an abnormally rosy picture if you imagine that things are simply going to go back to business as usual. Debenhams (and a few others) had very spotty trading statements (at Christmas) and while Corvid may be the straw that breaks the camel's back- trading was not going well for a goodly time beforehand. We were very much at an abnormal economic peak- possibly at the start of a decline- before everything went to hell on a broomstick.
awec wrote: » The pubs, cafes, restaurants etc will definitely get a massive boost as soon as they are allowed to open again, the only question is if it’s a sustained thing or just an initial surge followed by a drop off in custom..
Ozark707 wrote: » Pubs etc will take a lot lot longer to open than many other retail units. Though I will be counting down the days till they open as well.
awec wrote: » Yea they’ll be waiting a while and there’ll be restrictions. But as soon as those places open there’ll be no shortage of custom. Even if people are tight with money we’ve never experienced a time when we’ve literally been confined to our homes with zero social interaction like we are now. People will be desperate to get out. I do think the majority who lost their job in the hospitality sector will be getting it back relatively quickly once restrictions are eased. Retail workers maybe not so much.
MrMusician18 wrote: » Hospitality including hotels? I don't think that will be coming back in any great hurry, particularly foreign tourism. Not in 2020. Would you really want to sit beside a stranger for a few hours on an aircraft, in this climate? The whole airline industry may have to radically adapt, if passengers refuse to be crammed into aircraft as in the past. The days we get back to normal, there will be a big blow out, lots of drinking and the like. But that will only last a few days, as the depressing reality will be dawning that a lot of citizens do not have jobs to go back to.
o2bearebel wrote: » Still interested to hear if new house property launch prices have already been affected by the pending recession? Anyone know of developments where prices have dropped already?
awec wrote: » It's still way too early to see that. Construction has stopped, developers will be selling nothing right now.
JimmyVik wrote: » Theres a new estate with 12 houses being built across the road from my parents house. Construction ramped up about two years ago and the houses were nearly finished then. Then it slowed down for some reason with only a few workers on site for the last 9 months. There are none now. It had already looked to me like didnt want to complete those houses in a hurry. I dont know why though.
awec wrote: » The only sector of the market those Airbnb apartments will help is people looking to buy apartments. People waiting to buy 3/4 bed houses are not going to suddenly buy an apartment instead just because there’s lots available. Definitely good news for renters, good news if you want to buy an apartment, not much use for anyone else.
schmittel wrote: » If rents drop meaningfully, purchase prices will drop as sure as night follows days.
The_Conductor wrote: » It really depends- certain segments of the market do not necessarily follow pure economic fundamentals. Never underestimate an Irish person's sheer *need* to buy property- regardless of what it costs to rent. Sentiment can in many cases completely over-rule common sense.
schmittel wrote: » If airbnb/tourism does not come back within 6 months I think rents will drop for one/two bed city apartments, and thus purchase prices for that market segment. I also think that will have a knock on effect across the entire market, the herd will follow prices down. Never underestimate an Irish persons sheer need for groupthink in the property market; true in falling markets as well as rising ones!
IndieRoar111 wrote: » So many price drops on myhome.ie, only difference between now and the end of the year is you should add at least 15 percentage points to the majority of them. You are better off holding off purchasing (if you really don't need to now) Gurtna2 as now is only the beginning of the crash.
IndieRoar111 wrote: » Agreed, people are forgetting that the market will not behave rationally. Humans are experiencing a near all time fear level on a global scale. Many will decide to keep waiting to buy, thus driving prices down further. It's all human nature at the end of the day, works the same when the market is going up.
awec wrote: » This is not how it works in the real world. Prices will be driven down because people cannot buy any more, not that they have chosen not to or just all decided to wait. If it was a case of everyone waiting and then everyone buying then prices would just instantly skyrocket again as demand surges. If you want your bargains then you need a huge number of potential buyers removed from the market for the foreseeable future. In the real world when people are in a position to buy they will buy. There’s no collective “let’s all just wait.”
schmittel wrote: I also think that will have a knock on effect across the entire market, the herd will follow prices down.
schmittel wrote: If airbnb/tourism does not come back within 6 months I think rents will drop for one/two bed city apartments, and thus purchase prices for that market segment.
awec wrote: Prices will be driven down because people cannot buy any more, not that they have chosen not to or just all decided to wait.
awec wrote: In the real world when people are in a position to buy they will buy. There’s no collective “let’s all just wait.â€
schmittel wrote: » There is certainly anecdotal evidence on these boards that people who were sale agreed 6 weeks ago are wondering whether or not to proceed. Some have mentioned job security, others have mentioned fear of negative equity etc. Not quite a collective lets all just wait but it won't take much to tip it into that.
Villa05 wrote: » I'd b very surprised if this is not being monitored, most of that stuff on Airbnb is residential property that is not a ppr This is illegal and surely the regulator and revenue are monitoring this. Owners may be in for a nasty surprise when normality returns Irish property is driven by sentiment far more so than real life norms. If you look at boards back in 2012/13 most of the debate was around how lower they could go rather thanIn real life normality in the Irish property market the majority can't afford to buy with the average age of ftbs well into their 30s One could argue that property prices are redefining real life norms such as when even if you have children
