Property Market 2020

cnocbui

ittakestwo wrote: »

What party has "less rights for tenants" as their manifesto?

The same one that promised to reduce the tax burden on individuals and reduce government expenditure, particularly on unnecessary functions.

Hubertj

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This will be a game changer.

Many prospective buyers will see most of Dublin for the rip-off kip that it is and buy somewhere nice down the country. Foreign nationals will be the majority in this.

You clearly know nothing about Dublin if that’s you opinion of it.
Or you’re bitter because you can’t afford to buy in Dublin.

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

You clearly know nothing about Dublin if that’s you opinion of it.
Or you’re bitter because you can’t afford to buy in Dublin.

Even if the WFH thing really does materialise, and people can live anywhere, it will take a long time for it to actually happen.

The supply just does not exist "down the country" for there to be a sudden surge in people looking to buy there. We've spent a significant time the last decade building our housing stock in our major towns and cities, and surrounding commuter towns. The trend for people moving has been overwhelmingly toward urbanisation.

Housing supply down the country is low because there's been very low demand. It will take years for the trends to reverse. If there's a shift in the pattern of demand, then prices and rents in rural Ireland will go through the roof until such a time that supply can catch up, and people will simply be priced out of any such move.

It is also unlikely that people are going to go to fully WFH 5 days a week. It is more likely, if any shift occurs, for businesses to employ a hot desking strategy, where people can work from home but do come to the office regularly. The office might have capacity for 50% of the workforce at any one time. This means that in the scenario where this occurs the most likely outcome is just a broadening of the commuter belt to slightly further afield.

Mic 1972

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This will be a game changer.

Many prospective buyers will see most of Dublin for the rip-off kip that it is and buy somewhere nice down the country. Foreign nationals will be the majority in this.

Foreign nationals will have no interest in moving out to the country. Generally speaking even if people WFH there will be demand to live in the big city because of all other commodities

coolshannagh28

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Foreign nationals will have no interest in moving out to the country. Generally speaking even if people WFH there will be demand to live in the big city because of all other commodities

Why not pay some lad in India half the money to work at home for you ? WFH is a two edged sword .

landofthetree

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-set-to-suffer-more-severe-recession-than-rest-of-world-says-ecb-official-1.4227220?mode=amp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/central-bank-governor-warns-recovery-will-take-longer-than-originally-thought-1.4227209?mode=amp

No way house prices aren't going to fall significantly. It would defy all logic.

snotboogie

awec wrote: »

Even if the WFH thing really does materialise, and people can live anywhere, it will take a long time for it to actually happen.

The supply just does not exist "down the country" for there to be a sudden surge in people looking to buy there. We've spent a significant time the last decade building our housing stock in our major towns and cities, and surrounding commuter towns. The trend for people moving has been overwhelmingly toward urbanisation.

Housing supply down the country is low because there's been very low demand. It will take years for the trends to reverse. If there's a shift in the pattern of demand, then prices and rents in rural Ireland will go through the roof until such a time that supply can catch up, and people will simply be priced out of any such move.

It is also unlikely that people are going to go to fully WFH 5 days a week. It is more likely, if any shift occurs, for businesses to employ a hot desking strategy, where people can work from home but do come to the office regularly. The office might have capacity for 50% of the workforce at any one time. This means that in the scenario where this occurs the most likely outcome is just a broadening of the commuter belt to slightly further afield.

Good Post. I'd encourage anyone interested in the possibility of a massive shift to WFM to listen to the recent Making Sense podcast with Matt Mullenweg, the CEO of WordPress, who have a near 100% WFH policy. He gives a great overview of the pros and cons. I thought it was very balanced and the downsides he touched on were poignant. He did stress the importance of face to face interaction and how managers are disproportionately negatively affected by WFH, intangibles like reading staffs body language, getting the temperature of the room and the positive osmosis of walking through the office all matter to good leaders, interestingly, contrary to what a lot of people believe, a mass WFH policy will likely increase the need for business travel, especially among the lower levels of companies as teams are more likely to be dispersed globally but will still need to meet face to face at least a few times a year.

Also, if someone has the freedom to work from home why buy down the country? Why won't they look to Portugal or Croatia as opposed to Carlow and Tipperary?

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-set-to-suffer-more-severe-recession-than-rest-of-world-says-ecb-official-1.4227220?mode=amp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/central-bank-governor-warns-recovery-will-take-longer-than-originally-thought-1.4227209?mode=amp

No way house prices aren't going to fall significantly. It would defy all logic.

Central bank lad is stating the obvious.

What’s “significant” though? 15%? How long did it take prices to increase by 15%? 2-3 years? So would a significant reduction be a return to 2017 prices?

Villa05

awec wrote:

The supply just does not exist "down the country" for there to be a sudden surge in people looking to buy there. We've spent a significant time the last decade building our housing stock in our major towns and cities, and surrounding commuter towns. The trend for people moving has been overwhelmingly toward urbanisation.

Cork, kerry, Clare Galway Tipperary were the ghost estate capitals of Ireland.
Waterford Wexford are amongst the cheapest areas in the country

The urbanisation trend has been by young recently qualified professionals that could easily go in reverse for professionals with young families.

If you had a young family would an apartment in Smithfield costing half a million or a 4 bed house near the coast in Wexford be more appealing?

With a requirement to commute reduced to 2 or 3 times a week to dublin. That house in Wexford, Waterford and Kilkenny become more appealing

fifth

snotboogie wrote: »

Good Post. I'd encourage anyone interested in the possibility of a massive shift to WFM to listen to the recent Making Sense podcast with Matt Mullenweg, the CEO of WordPress, who have a near 100% WFH policy. He gives a great overview of the pros and cons. I thought it was very balanced and the downsides he touched on were poignant. He did stress the importance of face to face interaction and how managers are disproportionately negatively affected by WFH, intangibles like reading staffs body language, getting the temperature of the room and the positive osmosis of walking through the office all matter to good leaders, interestingly, contrary to what a lot of people believe, a mass WFH policy will likely increase the need for business travel, especially among the lower levels of companies as teams are more likely to be dispersed globally but will still need to meet face to face at least a few times a year.

Also, if someone has the freedom to work from home why buy down the country? Why won't they look to Portugal or Croatia as opposed to Carlow and Tipperary?

I reckon that's tough luck for managers then. Anyone interested in, or any business owners who are concerned about staff that work from home I recommend reading this book:

Remote: Office not required

The book will bust a lot of the myths that people at home are less productive (in fact can be more productive as they do not know where to draw the line between home and work life, or to obey the 'clock out' times..which is a whole other issue in and of itself). Being in the view of a manager can affect their perception of your performance. "Out of sight, out of mind" The morning 'hello!' with a smile. The "i'll grab you a coffee" all contribute to the perception of a 'better' employee, it's human nature. When your staff work from home you have none of that. So the work you actually deliver is the only visible metric and therefore those who don't pull their weight get found out when they work from home. Productive employees excel here.

Also, I work from home full time and always have. I'm planning to buy a nice house down the country. But working remotely from other countries is not always permitted due to some tax issues - I know this is the case in my own place. Certain countries are available for remote workers to work from, some are not.

I hope this cuts down on business travel, a lot of the time it's just not necessary. You can achieve 98% effectiveness from a zoom call compared to a face to face meeting. Is all that expense and carbon emission worth the extra 2% in every case? No. Have we been able to survive without business travel the last month? Absolutely yes.

We've survived without the large office too, I hope businesses will reconsider and people won't rush back to the office, but I feel like they will. Offices offer social interaction (outside of work related interaction), often better chairs/desks and free food in some cases etc etc.

fifth

I'm considering pushing ahead with a purchase during this time. The area I want to buy is outside of Dublin and if WFH takes off or at least increases by a degree, this will place more demand on those houses by the people who are competing with me. (People who have the money to buy in this difficult time, who have job security etc and might want to move out of Dublin).

I'm looking for a discount but even 7-10% would suit me - if I can get that I'll pull the trigger and buy. Now is the time I can negotiate that. I don't want to wait around to see what happens, I'm in my 30s and don't want to put my life on hold - as much as I'd like to see a haircut on house prices! The supply of new building could likely shrink massively. It's a risk i'm not willing to take.

edit. I am looking at three different properties, one has already been discounted quite a bit but it's not my first preference on where I'd like to buy.

Idbatterim

lads this thing about the disccount, of course go for it. But you need to ask yourself, is the value of the property good or not. Something could be a great buy at over the asking, where the likes of that house in churchtown at 425k, would you buy that if you got even a "huge" 20% off asking? I wouldnt...

Price is what you pay, value is what you get!

donspeekinglesh

fifth wrote: »

I reckon that's tough luck for managers then. Anyone interested in, or any business owners who are concerned about staff that work from home I recommend reading this book:

Remote: Office not required

The book will bust a lot of the myths that people at home are less productive (in fact can be more productive as they do not know where to draw the line between home and work life, or to obey the 'clock out' times..which is a whole other issue in and of itself). Being in the view of a manager can affect their perception of your performance. "Out of sight, out of mind" The morning 'hello!' with a smile. The "i'll grab you a coffee" all contribute to the perception of a 'better' employee, it's human nature. When your staff work from home you have none of that. So the work you actually deliver is the only visible metric and therefore those who don't pull their weight get found out when they work from home. Productive employees excel here.

I haven't read that book, but Dan Lyons wrote a good book about company cultures and there's a full chapter about DHH and Basecamp. It was a follow up to his very funny book about the hellhole that is Hubspot.

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Cork, kerry, Clare Galway Tipperary were the ghost estate capitals of Ireland.
Waterford Wexford are amongst the cheapest areas in the country

The urbanisation trend has been by young recently qualified professionals that could easily go in reverse for professionals with young families.

If you had a young family would an apartment in Smithfield costing half a million or a 4 bed house near the coast in Wexford be more appealing?

With a requirement to commute reduced to 2 or 3 times a week to dublin. That house in Wexford, Waterford and Kilkenny become more appealing

Absolutely nobody is making this sort of trade off ffs. People in the market for 4 bed houses are not weighing up apartments in Smithfield.

Things cannot go "easily in reverse", the stock isn't there. People can talk about wanting to buy down the country all they want, the houses they want to buy don't exist and won't exist for years. They can build their own if they want, if this becomes popular building costs will certainly rise significantly. It they’re waiting on developers to churn out developments they’ll be waiting a while.

Maybe in the long term we’ll see the urbanisation undone, but it’s certainly not happening in the near future.

IndieRoar111

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-set-to-suffer-more-severe-recession-than-rest-of-world-says-ecb-official-1.4227220?mode=amp

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/media-and-marketing/central-bank-governor-warns-recovery-will-take-longer-than-originally-thought-1.4227209?mode=amp

No way house prices aren't going to fall significantly. It would defy all logic.

You should know by now logic has no place in this thread.

Full of property owners who purchased at a bad time and got ripped off denying that there will be a crash, plenty of estate agents as well, they are in for a rude awakening.

Dwarf.Shortage

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

You should know by now logic has no place in this thread.

Full of property owners who purchased at a bad time and got ripped off denying that there will be a crash, plenty of estate agents as well, they are in for a rude awakening.

I've never seen such a binary thread on Boards. It's a mix of what you've said above and the crystal ball doom merchants who reckon there's definitely going to be minimum 30% going off housing. Plenty of decent measured posts too but there's definitely a lot posting with their heart/wallet not their head.

PokeHerKing

I work for a large financial MNC and have been wfh for about 6 weeks now. I think they've about 150 employees left in the 3 offices in Dublin out of about 1k employees.

The operation hasn't skipped a beat and I imagine the rent they pay across the 3 locations is hefty but I have absolutely no doubt in my mind when these restrictions are lifted they'll want the cast majority back in the offices.

Imo the restrictions would need to last a year+ for them to implement any sort of large scale shift to a wfh business model.

The_Conductor

I'd actually view those IT articles broadly in a positive light.
Its not conveying any earth shattering information- but it is comforting in some respects with its suggestion that the ECB are forecasting the commencement of a recovery at some stage in 2021.

The OP piece in the IT- suggests Ireland is going to take on an additional 30 billion + in national debt before the end of this crisis- the other articles are sniffling around whether the level of debt is supportable in the context of historic debt levels- without inferring its affordable (or otherwise).

In related news- Ireland got a 6 billion bond away @ 0.25% last week. International investors may not know their arses from their elbows (esp. in the context of equities and oil)- but they are willing to buy sovereign debt that is viewed in a positive light- and Irish sovereign debt is viewed as being a rock solid investment. Part of the reason that Italy, Spain and Greece are desperate for so called 'Corona-bonds' is so they can leverage the positive sentiment towards more prudent Eurozone countries (Ireland included). Funnily enough- Ireland joined France in voting in favour of Coronabonds and trying to force the hand of the Netherlands last week- when we hope to get away without resorting to needing to access them.........

In a financial context- we're in unprecedented times- there is no roadmap, we're feeling our way through the mess, but have no idea what in god's name we're doing.

snotboogie

fifth wrote: »

I hope this cuts down on business travel, a lot of the time it's just not necessary. You can achieve 98% effectiveness from a zoom call compared to a face to face meeting. Is all that expense and carbon emission worth the extra 2% in every case? No. Have we been able to survive without business travel the last month? Absolutely yes.

Ya the WordPress CEO was saying that twice yearly meet ups were necessary, not monthly ones lol. He was stressing the idea that you can completely jettison face to face professional interaction was a myth. Twice yearly business travel would be an increase for most staff

Graham

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

You should know by now logic has no place in this thread.

Full of property owners who purchased at a bad time and got ripped off denying that there will be a crash, plenty of estate agents as well, they are in for a rude awakening.

Most people buy so that they have somewhere to live when they need it rather than to speculate on property prices.

A good proportion of those that bought at the bottom of the market did so by fluke rather than financial foresight.

Hadn't you just gone sale agreed 3 weeks ago?

fifth

donspeekinglesh wrote: »

I haven't read that book, but Dan Lyons wrote a good book about company cultures and there's a full chapter about DHH and Basecamp. It was a follow up to his very funny book about the hellhole that is Hubspot.

I must give those a read! This is my second basecamp book and I've enjoyed both.

snotboogie wrote: »

Ya the WordPress CEO was saying that twice yearly meet ups were necessary, not monthly ones lol. He was stressing the idea that you can completely jettison face to face professional interaction was a myth. Twice yearly business travel would be an increase for most staff

On the business travel, I suppose there are some people would like to protect it as they enjoy the trips and the benefits. Me personally, have had to travel a bit over the years for work and would rather not have to do it anymore.

Each to their own.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I work for a large financial MNC and have been wfh for about 6 weeks now. I think they've about 150 employees left in the 3 offices in Dublin out of about 1k employees.

The operation hasn't skipped a beat and I imagine the rent they pay across the 3 locations is hefty but I have absolutely no doubt in my mind when these restrictions are lifted they'll want the cast majority back in the offices.

Imo the restrictions would need to last a year+ for them to implement any sort of large scale shift to a wfh business model.

I reckon this will be the case. People will be back in the offices, ultimately that will suit me as it'll keep pressure on property prices in urban areas where I don't want to buy.

ittakestwo

About twice a year we have a fire drill at work and practice how to get to the emergency exits and onto the saftey assembly points in case of fire.

After this will we have to practice WFH weeks... as we have to pretend the country is lock down and we have to work from home so we can make a smooth transition next time. When this is all over it will be in the back of our heads what happens if there is a new virus in a few years time and the place is in lockdown.

Hubertj

Graham wrote: »

Most people buy so that they have somewhere to live when they need it rather than to speculate on property prices.

A good proportion of those that bought at the bottom of the market did so by fluke rather than financial foresight.

Hadn't you just gone sale agreed 3 weeks ago?

He’s making it up as he goes along.

Villa05

awec wrote:

Absolutely nobody is making this sort of trade of ffs. People in the market for 4 bed houses are not weighing up apartments in Smithfield.

People make it all the time because of affordability issues. Through budget constraints, they can either get a tiny house or apartment in Dublin or get a house with a long commute outside Dublin

awec wrote:

Things cannot go "easily in reverse", the stock isn't there. People can talk about wanting to buy down the country all they want, the houses they want to buy don't exist and won't exist for years.

Has already happened for different reasons. WFH may lead to move towards equalization of property prices

A quote from Ronan Lyons
"We have this wierd phemonoem where one third living in the cities formally while two thirds work in the cities"

Houses were built outside Dublin because, Dublin was considered too expensive and these houses were specifically targeted to those working in Dublin

There are plenty houses for sale "down the country"
This is a thread about the property market. There is one outside Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway cities

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

People make it all the time because of affordability issues. Through budget constraints, they can either get a tiny house or apartment in Dublin or get a house with a long commute outside Dublin



Has already happened for different reasons. WFH may lead to move towards equalization of property prices

A quote from Ronan Lyons
"We have this wierd phemonoem where one third living in the cities formally while two thirds work in the cities"

Houses were built outside Dublin because, Dublin was considered too expensive and these houses were specifically targeted to those working in Dublin

There are plenty houses for sale "down the country"
This is a thread about the property market. There is one outside Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway cities

People shopping for 4 bed houses do not go looking at apartments instead, this is pure rubbish. Different people shop in different segments of the market. Nobody is weighing up an apartment in Smithfield vs a 4 bed gaff in Wexford. That is such an extreme difference that it just doesn't exist in reality.

What happens in the real world is people weigh up a 3 bed house in Dublin with a small garden vs a 4 bed house in a commuter town with a slightly bigger garden.

There are not "plenty" of houses for sale in rural Ireland. There was enough houses for sale to cope with the demand of the past decade, which was a relatively small demand. If the demand that drove prices up in Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow, which led to construction booms in these counties suddenly shifts to other rural counties then it doesn't take a genius to work out what the effect on property prices in those rural counties will be, and given our experiences of the last decade, how long it will take for supply to catch up.

In reality this is a moot discussion because this mass exodus of offices in Dublin to WFH isn't going to happen and is nothing more than wishful thinking by some. The overwhelming majority will be back at their desk in their office as soon as this is all over.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Who would want an hour commute everyday each way for a small garden. Apartment is a much better choice but little will agree.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

People shopping for 4 bed houses do not go looking at apartments instead, this is pure rubbish. Different people shop in different segments of the market.

Not sure how in tune you are with FTBs? But this exact scenario was us.

We were approved for a mortgage over 400k. We spent about three months looking at apartments last year in Dublin city centre and then swapped to looking at houses further out..... we weighed up all the pros and cons of both.

So not rubbish, far from it.

Marcusm

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd actually view those IT articles broadly in a positive light.
Its not conveying any earth shattering information- but it is comforting in some respects with its suggestion that the ECB are forecasting the commencement of a recovery at some stage in 2021.

The OP piece in the IT- suggests Ireland is going to take on an additional 30 billion + in national debt before the end of this crisis- the other articles are sniffling around whether the level of debt is supportable in the context of historic debt levels- without inferring its affordable (or otherwise).

In related news- Ireland got a 6 billion bond away @ 0.25% last week. International investors may not know their arses from their elbows (esp. in the context of equities and oil)- but they are willing to buy sovereign debt that is viewed in a positive light- and Irish sovereign debt is viewed as being a rock solid investment. Part of the reason that Italy, Spain and Greece are desperate for so called 'Corona-bonds' is so they can leverage the positive sentiment towards more prudent Eurozone countries (Ireland included). Funnily enough- Ireland joined France in voting in favour of Coronabonds and trying to force the hand of the Netherlands last week- when we hope to get away without resorting to needing to access them.........

In a financial context- we're in unprecedented times- there is no roadmap, we're feeling our way through the mess, but have no idea what in god's name we're doing.

It’s purely self-interest for Ireland to vote for coronabonds or any other joint bond issuance/guarantee. We would pick up a minuscule portion (1-2%) of any default by Italy or Greece but would benefit hugely if we ever fell to a level where we needed to issue them. It’s like paying a tiny insurance premium in case Of catastrophe and catastrophe alone.

awec

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not sure how in tune you are with FTBs? But this exact scenario was us.

We were approved for a mortgage over 400k. We spent about three months looking at apartments last year in Dublin city centre and then swapped to looking at houses further out..... we weighed up all the pros and cons of both.

So not rubbish, far from it.

The opposite scenario.

But of course, I didn't mean literally every single person out there, but people who shop for 4 bed houses do not change their minds and buy apartments instead. They are two separate segments of the market.

awec

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Who would want an hour commute everyday each way for a small garden. Apartment is a much better choice but little will agree.

Apartments in Ireland suck for families.