Property Market 2020

beauf

what_traffic wrote: »

There is no context. Thats the point.
WW2 was "boom" time for many country's economys especially the America's

With that in mind who are the 10.

what_traffic wrote: »

This is just an amazing stat
"
The IMF chief warned that "global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020," with 170 of the International Monetary Fund's 180 members experiencing a decline in per capita income.
"

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

so you joined boards to share this news? hmmmm

Lot of inactive posters, back and new posters around lately.

what_traffic

beauf wrote: »

With that in mind who are the 10.

Its sure easier to list than the other 170

what_traffic

what_traffic wrote: »

This is just an amazing stat
"
The IMF chief warned that "global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020," with 170 of the International Monetary Fund's 180189 members experiencing a decline in per capita income.
"

Typo in the RTE Website.
From the IMF PR they have 189 members
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/07/sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser

PommieBast

beauf wrote: »

With that in mind who are the 10.

Tax havans such as Belize and Monarco I expect

Mic 1972

Marius34 wrote: »

1) Investors start to get nervous over Covid on second half of February, that's when the stock market started to fall.
2) I'm curious where did you find this "Also March started with an increase over February."

it's in the Daft report, there is graph showing an increase in asking prices in Mar v Feb and then a drop of 2.1% in the second half of March

TheSheriff

Sale agreed today at 20K under asking.

Bittersweet to be honest.

We also know sale agreed means nothing until signed, have been here before.

Amouar

TheSheriff wrote: »

Sale agreed today at 20K under asking.

Bittersweet to be honest.

We also know sale agreed means nothing until signed, have been here before.

What the property's asking price?

KindOfIrish

landofthetree wrote: »

Loads of people got property on the cheap post 2008.

My friends bought a 2-bed apartment in Dublin for 120K at that time, they didn't need a mortgage though.
If the restrictions won't be lifted by the end of May, and it has to be lifted in all western countries, there won't be a thread "property market 2021" as there won't be a property market at all.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's in the Daft report, there is graph showing an increase in asking prices in Mar v Feb and then a drop of 2.1% in the second half of March

Thanks, I looked at it, you are right. But the price fluctuates a lot within weeks in their report. I believe the price is not compared with properies alikes, but simply calculates average on all properties.
Myhome for the same time period has different results. I don't say that one or another report has better insight. But I feel that people picks up report only the ones what they like to see. In here Daft report for 2020Q1 brought lots of interest, Myhome almost none.
2019 Q1, Daft Asking price was off from the actual transaction price change last time, even adding the 3-6 month lag.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Sorry there was an over supply for god sake you only have to look back at the reports of ghost estates throughout the country. The very fact that Nama had to be created is actually proof of an oversupply that houses that people did not want or need or where in difficulty paying for them were put into this vehicle. So there was an oversupply of houses built priior to 2008. The same cannot be said now. I cant see Nama 2 coming out anytime soon.

The market is made up of available buyers and available sellers.
If the market is interfered with and properties removed from sale, they are not part of the market. therefore prices fell despite supply being constrained as they will again

Also most were incomplete, and in low demand areas, some were even knocked down

Marius34 wrote:

I believe Daft report was generated at the end of March, where first ones started to reduce price due to Covid. The actual prices on Pre-Covid, we will see in the next CSO report for the month of February transactions. And I expect it to be upward for annual basis. As you can see from previous posts, even for previous sale agreed some buyers trying to negotiate over the past weeks, or pull out already, before signing contract, thus CSO report for April (in June) , will not show a pre-Covid market anymore. This will be the last CSO fully pre-covid. and at some extent CSO March report (in May).

Quarter 1 has always been the busiest since the central Bank rules came in with prices rising in that quarter and the tapering off for the rest of the year. What had been trending is that the quarter 1 increases had been getting smaller and the year as a whole was becoming negative

The most logical thing for banks to do I remove those exceptions in a recession and the qtr 1 bump is gone

IndieRoar111

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

If we do have a 30% fail in prices , that would signify that unemployment will likely remain above 12% anyway.

So banks will again have massive damage to their balance sheets , state finances will wobble again leading to public sector pay cuts but this time there is nowhere to emigrate too as it's a worldwide slump so no safety valve.

If you really believe that prices will fall 30% , in this environment you should probably be deeply concerned about your job not looking out with glee at the cheap housing your snap up.

Economists have stated that an unemployment rate of 10% by Jan 2021 is very optimistic thinking and is best case scenario, consensus seems to be around the 15% mark as many jobs will not come back.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The market is made up of available buyers and available sellers.
If the market is interfered with and properties removed from sale, they are not part of the market. therefore prices fell despite supply being constrained as they will again

Also most were incomplete, and in low demand areas, some were even knocked down





Quarter 1 has always been the busiest since the central Bank rules came in with prices rising in that quarter and the tapering off for the rest of the year. What had been trending is that the quarter 1 increases had been getting smaller and the year as a whole was becoming negative

The most logical thing for banks to do I remove those exceptions in a recession and the qtr 1 bump is gone

and does that mean prices were leveling off due to supply increasing to meet demand so buyers have more choice? Or does that mean it was down to affordability? Or a mixture of both?

How many exceptions are there per year?

IndieRoar111

KindOfIrish wrote: »

My friends bought a 2-bed apartment in Dublin for 120K at that time, they didn't need a mortgage though.
If the restrictions won't be lifted by the end of May, and it has to be lifted in all western countries, there won't be a thread "property market 2021" as there won't be a property market at all.

Hyperbole.

People will still die (from non Covid relate causes), divorce, up size/downsize regardless of this.

Actually i wouldn't be surprised if divorce rates sky rocket and those in solid relationships will likely end up having kids/more kids between now and 2021, thus the need to put down roots or up size.

All of the above will lead to property transactions.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

Quarter 1 has always been the busiest since the central Bank rules came in with prices rising in that quarter and the tapering off for the rest of the year. What had been trending is that the quarter 1 increases had been getting smaller and the year as a whole was becoming negative

The most logical thing for banks to do I remove those exceptions in a recession and the qtr 1 bump is gone

And why this makes Daft report more correct over Myhome?
Myhome didn't report fall on YoY basis. YoY already tells if price increased over year or decreased over a year. The same central rules applies for 2019 Q1 & 2020 Q1.
As mentioned Daft 2019 Q1 4% increase in Dublin, didn't result in actual transaction price increase even with added delay.

BillyBiggs

The I.M.F. are predicting the worst recession since the Great Depression:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1129580/

handlemaster

Anybody looking at myhome and daft and thinking there is property here that will not sell until the new prices come in ?

Hubertj

handlemaster wrote: »

Anybody looking at myhome and daft and thinking there is property here that will not sell until the new prices come in ?

I suppose a lot will depend on people’s reasons for selling - who needs liquidity quickly, who would like liquidity, what people think their property is worth etc?

Zenify

handlemaster wrote: »

Anybody looking at myhome and daft and thinking there is property here that will not sell until the new prices come in ?

Just saw a house go up in Churchtown for 450k. It's not even a house. It's pretty much on of those garage extensions turned into a granny flat. That's a crazy price even without Covid

lomb

Zenify wrote: »

Just saw a house go up in Churchtown for 450k. It's not even a house. It's pretty much on of those garage extensions turned into a granny flat. That's a crazy price even without Covid

Some prices were/ are bananas . I've no idea who in their right mind would pay them.I suppose someone buying would assume a 450k shoebox is a payment of 1800 a month rather than 450k. Other prices are very fair.

Ozark707

handlemaster wrote: »

Anybody looking at myhome and daft and thinking there is property here that will not sell until the new prices come in ?

There have been next to zero price drops on the MyHome price drops page for Dublin recently. If this is a correct representation of sellers sentiment then it shows it is going to take a long long time for reality to set in. The ‘I am not selling it for less than it is worth’ mindset was interesting to observe after 08. The smart ones dropped quickly and got out with a handsome profit in many cases.

What will be interesting this time is whether EA’s pressurise vendors into dropping prices. You would think the experienced ones who were there for the last collapse would do this.

accensi0n

Zenify wrote: »

Just saw a house go up in Churchtown for 450k. It's not even a house. It's pretty much on of those garage extensions turned into a granny flat. That's a crazy price even without Covid

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/101a-landscape-park-churchtown-dublin-14/4425572

Don't like the downstairs layout of that at all.
Walking directly into the kitchen, no hallway entrance to other rooms, need to go through the kitchen to get to the living room, hitting your head off the stairs when at the counter beside the sink..

AmberGold

accensi0n wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/101a-landscape-park-churchtown-dublin-14/4425572

Don't like the downstairs layout of that at all.
Walking directly into the kitchen, no hallway entrance to other rooms, need to go through the kitchen to get to the living room, hitting your head off the stairs when at the counter beside the sink..

It's well done all the same, have to laugh at the price. I'd wager its worth the somewhere between a one and two bed apartment in the area and that's only because of parking and the small garden.

Hubertj

AmberGold wrote: »

It's well done all the same, have to laugh at the price. I'd wager its worth the somewhere between a one and two bed apartment in the area and that's only because of parking and the small garden.

Agreed, it’s an apartment being passed off as a house because of a garden and front door. Very nice area and all that....

beauf

Buyers on this thread frothing at the bit to buy at the bottom of the market should wait for those 40%+ drops that your waiting for.

There are plenty of properties sitting unsold for the last few years empty. If they didn't need the money then, they are likely to leave it unsold for another few years.

Ignore those and concentrate on the ones that are dropping into your price point.

If you want to watch all the properties dropping and those that don't for years and sit on the sidelines and watch. There is website perfect for this. The property pin. It's been moaning about property for a decade or more.

IndieRoar111

JPMorgan now sees the US economy contracting by 40% in second quarter, and unemployment reaching 20%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpmorgan-now-sees-economy-contracting-by-40percent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html


The US who are one of our biggest exporters will have an unemployment rate of 20% by end of year. Even if we do lift restrictions in May our economy will still be crippled due to this and coupled with the fact that US holidays makers are one of the biggest costumers for our tourism industry, this may take years to recover from.

Anyone who thinks all will be well once we start lifting restrictions needs their head examined and the ones who claim house prices won't fall by at least 15% across the board are beyond help tbh.

voluntary

People will not realize the extent of the damage until the lockdown and restrictions are in place. So many still believe things will be "back to normal" after a few months.

IndieRoar111

AmberGold wrote: »

It's well done all the same, have to laugh at the price. I'd wager its worth the somewhere between a one and two bed apartment in the area and that's only because of parking and the small garden.

Anyone who purchases that is a greater fool. Don't know how an EA could keep a straight face at the viewings. It's this type of thrash that leads to people wishing for a crash and gleeing at others misfortunes, it isn't right but this has what it has come to.

IndieRoar111

beauf wrote: »

Buyers on this thread frothing at the bit to buy at the bottom of the market should wait for those 40%+ drops that your waiting for.

There are plenty of properties sitting unsold for the last few years empty. If they didn't need the money then, they are likely to leave it unsold for another few years.

Ignore those and concentrate on the ones that are dropping into your price point.

If you want to watch all the properties dropping and those that don't for years and sit on the sidelines and watch. There is website perfect for this. The property pin. It's been moaning about property for a decade or more.

So by that logic, because a very small percent of the market behaves that way (sitting idle and not selling for years) during one of the biggest asset class bubbles in history, it will surely remain the same during what is predicted to be the worst recession since the great depression.

Logic checks out alright

TheSheriff

accensi0n wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/101a-landscape-park-churchtown-dublin-14/4425572

Don't like the downstairs layout of that at all.
Walking directly into the kitchen, no hallway entrance to other rooms, need to go through the kitchen to get to the living room, hitting your head off the stairs when at the counter beside the sink..

This came into the emails last night through an alert.

Are they MAD! Even without Covid-19, people would be mad to pay this.

It essentially a granny flat rebranded as a house.

Obviously a developer, as the other half of the property is also for sale for 100K more, to be honest, it would likely been nicer as one large property with a higher price tag.

It will be interesting to see what this sells for and it investment made to split this property into two was worth it.