CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Drumpot wrote: »

The smokers thing is an interesting variable. I recall Dr Aylward stating that in their initial work in China they didn’t single out smoking as a major factor explaining deaths. Seems very difficult to believe that a virus that creates severe rhespiratory issues Would not be more risky for smokers.

Well the Chinese stats on the smoking aspect are interesting. It seems to show that smokers(and ex smokers) are more likely to end up in serious condition than non smokers, but not by that much, and they seem to be less likely to catch it in the first place, or suffer milder symptoms so they stay out of the hospital cases entirely.

IIRC it was something like 13% of smokers ended up in hospital of all cases, serious or critical, yet the background rate of smoking in Chinese men particularly among the 40-70 age bracket which are most represented in the Covid hospital admissions is over 50%. If smoking was an obvious risk factors(and you'd expect that) one might understandably also expect that they'd be over represented, not under represented. High blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and diabetes show much higher percentages as risk factors. Never mind that smokers are more likely to have them as comorbidities in the first place. It's an odd one.

In one sample in the UK one factor leapt out and that was BMI. Now it was a small sample of 30 patients IIRC but only one single case was underweight, a few normal weight and the rest obese or morbidly obese. Then again like smoking obesity will bring comorbidities in its wake. Total musing aside: but could that be a factor in why men are more likely to get into critical condition? Men are more likely to carry excess weight in belly fat, women in hip and thigh fat. The former would affect breathing more? Sleep apnoea is much more common in the overweight and more common in men, so maybe?

I would also wonder if spain and Italy are more huggy, kissy or touchy communities. That would lead to virus spreading much quicker.

Could well be a part of it, but I'd say it's more down to higher living densities in shared housing. Ireland is very different to most of Europe in that regard.

Another thing that’s been surprising has been the supposed lower numbers in India and third world or poorer countries. Is that due to testing limits or something else? I think WHO said that some third world countries may lack the resources to manage this but have better experience with outbreaks (like Ebola) so may be able to handle them better.

Or they have lower age demographics. If a much smaller proportion of your population live to 70, then you've just removed a large chunk of those who would be most affected by this virus. Northern Italy have some of the oldest demographics in the world. Ditto for many parts of Spain. IIRC Madrid is the city with the highest life expectancy in Europe.