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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #8942
    YFlyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    Drumpot wrote: »
    In a weird way it might be better if there are hundreds of thousands infected and our icu and deaths level off over the coming weeks. Thus would mean CFR is much lower then anticipated and that we may have way more immune then we thought.

    Best scenario appears to be that this has been more contagious then thought and most of us have it or had it. The deaths and sick are still horrible to see but it would certainly put a more reassuring context on the numbers. I hazzard a disappointing guess that this is not the case when you look at nuts figures in Italy/Spain.

    Need to get those tests that check for antibodies. I had a temp of 39oC for a day couple of days weeks ago and didn’t think much of it. But for all I know my whole family had it and are immune.

    Yes the facility rate be lower than predicted.


  • #8943
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    bekker wrote: »
    To many the Leaving Cert is a matter of life and death, for the vast majority it determines the ultimate course of their lifetime income potential.

    That in turn influences their general state of health, their access to better medical treatment, and their ultimate lifespan.

    Dropping points, or providing free passes to university courses will simply devalue qualifications for that entry cohort.

    If at all possible the exams should go ahead, it is not beyond our ability to organise relative same environments for them.

    To many the exams are not life or death so they shouldn’t be forced to sit exams at the expense of their safety. And the exams shouldn’t be a matter of life or death for a child, but that’s a completely different point, that’s a mental health issue created by bad parenting or bad/warped values as far as I am concerned. If a child considers the exams that important , that’s a mental health issue in itself, not the fact that the exams won’t happen. A school exam shouldn’t be life not death or that improtant to a child.

    What is a relative safe environment? It’s grand to say it, but how does that look in reality? We can’t even protect our healthcare workers , how do we do that with children?

    When schools are reopened I suppose it will just be a case that exams will be allowed to happen. But I don’t think exams should happen before that because if schools aren’t safe to open , then by default exam halls are not safe environments for students.


  • #8944
    Bannasidhe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,218 ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    cloudatlas wrote: »
    She’s right areas of high unemployment less access to health insurance and health care.

    Now, now.
    Let's not get into fact checking or any of that nonsense when a ":rolleyes:" is available.


  • #8945
    Achasanai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Personally would put it in category of tone deaf. People are getting sick and dying everywhere. In the middle of a pandemic is not the right time The reason there are issues for her to "highlight" is the overall US response to this. She can come back to it afterwards.


    Little point in coming back to it after the crisis if the damage is already done. She is arguing that the crisis is disproportionately impacting on black America (due to economic factors as well as access to good medical care). 'Politicking', for lack of a better - or correct - term can be beneficial and can focus on areas that might help to mitigate this crisis.


    It's the same with highlighting areas that our government have fallen down. It's not necessarily negative for the sake of it (although of course it will be in some instances) but shining a spotlight on these areas might in the future lessen their tendency to repeat.


  • #8946
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Personally would put it in category of tone deaf. People are getting sick and dying everywhere. In the middle of a pandemic is not the right time The reason there are issues for her to "highlight" is the overall US response to this. She can come back to it afterwards.

    Some people are getting more sick than others, and there are reasons for that, which is rather the point.
    Environmental, economic and political factors have compounded for generations, putting black people at higher risk of chronic conditions that leave lungs weak and immune systems vulnerable: asthma, heart disease, hypertension and diabetes. In Milwaukee, simply being black means your life expectancy is 14 years shorter, on average, than someone white.

    As of Friday morning, African Americans made up almost half of Milwaukee County’s 945 cases and 81% of its 27 deaths in a county whose population is 26% black.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/early-data-shows-african-americans-have-contracted-and-died-of-coronavirus-at-an-alarming-rate/amp

    That is not a coincidence or an interesting bit of trivia to mention in a pub when this is all over, that is a major epidemiological circumstance, and it can't be All Lives Mattered away. Getting to grips with this virus will mean facing up to the factors that leave people vulnerable to it.


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  • #8947
    Achasanai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    speckle wrote: »
    we had problems sourcing it from 2015. we started giving it in the 1950s. we stopped the booster circe 1995.


    I think the benefit is that most older people - who would be at most risk now - have it, although if as you say it was only started in the 1950s that might not apply. I read something about 'learned immunity', but not sure if that applies to this vaccine.


  • #8948
    voluntary
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 871 ✭✭✭voluntary


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I don't think there is any one particular reason why the Italy and Spain death rates are so high.
    I believe it's a combination of:
    -High percentage of old people.
    -Lots of smokers (not even vapes, just ol fashioned cigarettes and cigars).
    -Poor air quality in cities (too many cars with those nasty diesel engines).

    Thay talked about this during the WHO briefing yesterday, and the reasons given were:

    - age profile of the society
    - overloaded healthcare system, doctors fatigue etc
    - weak and mild cases not being tested, the numbers of confirmed cases do not represent the real numbers of infected people.


  • #8949
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    wadacrack wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657

    are movies theatres in china the equivalent of pubs here for socialising
    ?


  • #8950
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I think it was said during the week that the cluster sizes are at about 5 here.

    Is that for it to meet a definition of a cluster? i.e >5 = a cluster?

    Frightening to think of all the nursing homes. As of Wednesday there were 40 clusters in nursing homes throughout the country. That's a serious amount of nursing homes.

    That's 5 X 40 = 200 cases minimum and god know's maximum.
    508216.png


  • #8951
    Kivaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I don't think there is any one particular reason why the Italy and Spain death rates are so high.
    I believe it's a combination of:
    -High percentage of old people.
    -Lots of smokers (not even vapes, just ol fashioned cigarettes and cigars).
    -Poor air quality in cities (too many cars with those nasty diesel engines).
    And the high density of population in certain areas is a huge factor.


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  • #8952
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Is that for it to meet a definition of a cluster? i.e >5 = a cluster?

    Frightening to think of all the nursing homes. As of Wednesday there were 66 clusters in nursing homes throughout the country. That's a serious amount of nursing homes.

    That's 5 X 66 = 330 cases minimum and god know's maximum.

    I thought there were 29 clusters in nursing homes.


  • #8953
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    The London Times is hinting that the British cabinet is considering the herd immunity policy again. They believe the damage to the economy, effects of a lockdown (domestic violence, mental health etc) outweigh the possibility of a huge loss of life.

    If they can cocoon the elderly and vulnerable as well as NHS workers effectively for the 3 or 4 months it would take for herd immunity there's nothing wrong with it, although it would have to be a slow spread and even then you'd expect a lot of deaths and icu admissions.

    Theres no hope of a vaccine for at least 12 months so at some stage countries will have to make big decisions. And if we can't be bothered restricting people coming from the UK then we're in the same boat as them.


  • #8954
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    owlbethere wrote: »
    I thought there were 29 clusters in nursing homes.

    I read it wrong. There are 40 now. I updated. Sorry


  • #8955
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,449 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Is that for it to meet a definition of a cluster? i.e >5 = a cluster?

    Frightening to think of all the nursing homes. As of Wednesday there were 66 clusters in nursing homes throughout the country. That's a serious amount of nursing homes.

    That's 5 X 66 = 330 cases minimum and god know's maximum.
    According to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, a cluster is three or more cases in an institution within a 72-hour period.

    they said last week that the average cluster size in ireland is generally 4 or 5 people.


  • #8956
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Is that for it to meet a definition of a cluster? i.e >5 = a cluster?

    Frightening to think of all the nursing homes. As of Wednesday there were 40 clusters in nursing homes throughout the country. That's a serious amount of nursing homes.

    That's 5 X 40 = 200 cases minimum and god know's maximum.
    508216.png

    3 linked cases is the minimum definition for a cluster


  • #8957
    BluePlanet
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    Drumpot wrote: »
    The smokers thing is an interesting variable. I recall Dr Aylward stating that in their initial work in China they didn’t single out smoking as a major factor explaining deaths. Seems very difficult to believe that a virus that creates severe rhespiratory issues Would not be more risky for smokers.

    I would also wonder if spain and Italy are more huggy, kissy or touchy communities. That would lead to virus spreading much quicker.

    I agree with the part about huggy, kissy.
    But that accounts only for infection rate and not death rate.


  • #8958
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I agree with the part about huggy, kissy.
    But that accounts only for infection rate and not death rate.

    True but by default if there’s a higher rate of infected in a country this should equally be reflected in higher percentage in ICU and dieing.

    Part of the strategy with flattening the curve is to reduce infection rates for this very reason. More infected at the one time equals more deaths as the system is over run.


  • #8959
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    If they can cocoon the elderly and vulnerable as well as NHS workers effectively for the 3 or 4 months it would take for herd immunity there's nothing wrong with it, although it would have to be a slow spread and even then you'd expect a lot of deaths and icu admissions.

    Theres no hope of a vaccine for at least 12 months so at some stage countries will have to make big decisions. And if we can't be bothered restricting people coming from the UK then we're in the same boat as them.

    Thats going to be disastrous. To some degree some elders and vulnerable can be cocooned away but it's not the answer. There was a doctor talking to ch4 saying a lot of his patients are 50s and under and some without underlying conditions. It's not going to work.


  • #8960
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Drumpot wrote: »
    To many the exams are not life or death so they shouldn’t be forced to sit exams at the expense of their safety. And the exams shouldn’t be a matter of life or death for a child, but that’s a completely different point, that’s a mental health issue created by bad parenting or bad/warped values as far as I am concerned. If a child considers the exams that important , that’s a mental health issue in itself, not the fact that the exams won’t happen. A school exam shouldn’t be life not death or that improtant to a child.

    What is a relative safe environment? It’s grand to say it, but how does that look in reality? We can’t even protect our healthcare workers , how do we do that with children?

    When schools are reopened I suppose it will just be a case that exams will be allowed to happen. But I don’t think exams should happen before that because if schools aren’t safe to open , then by default exam halls are not safe environments for students.
    Risk is inseparable from existence.

    No one is forced to sit exams, many don't. But if you chose not to then you cannot complain of the consequences of loosing out on the potential benefits.

    In the context of my post parental influences are an irrelevancy, as is your attitude towards exams per se.

    Your final point is not supported by the facts :-
    Primary ~560k, post-primary ~370k, total ~930k. Certificated examinations JC 65k, LC 60k total 125k, so about 14%.


  • #8961
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    holy f*ck
    By including the nursing home data, France now has a total of 82,165 confirmed or suspected cases.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-toll/french-coronavirus-cases-jump-above-chinas-after-including-nursing-home-tally-idUSKBN21L3BG


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  • #8962
    TOMs WIFE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 292 ✭✭TOMs WIFE


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    More articles suggesting the supermarket is quite risky. What are people's thoughts in terms of why we are not hearing about their staff falling ill so?
    all about the mane wrote: »
    It is strange. There is no doubt they are the riskiest places now purely down to traffic.

    Staff in supermarkets more aware of distancing themselves and practicing hand washing than their customers?


  • #8963
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Part of the reason ICU's are not overloaded at the moment is because many of those that are dying or critically ill are not being moved to hospitals for critical care. It is difficult to figure out how many of the positive cases are in OAP homes. 40 rest homes are infected with at least 3 cases per home but I suppose there are many more infected in most of these homes.. I presume the tests for those establishments are seen as a priority. I think we will have an increase in deaths soon as more patients in OAP homes succumb to the virus.


  • #8964
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    It's easy to feel removed from the frail people in nursing homes if you don't have a loved one in them.

    This poem comes to mind though..

    'Remember stranger, as you pass by,
    As you are now, so once was I.
    As I am now you soon will be,
    Prepare yourself for eternity. (to follow me.)'


  • #8965
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    spookwoman wrote: »
    holy f*ck
    By including the nursing home data, France now has a total of 82,165 confirmed or suspected cases.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-toll/french-coronavirus-cases-jump-above-chinas-after-including-nursing-home-tally-idUSKBN21L3BG

    Dear god.

    only a +44% difference in cases and 61% increase in deaths!


    Why can't countries count?


  • #8966
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Naggdefy wrote: »
    It's easy to feel removed from the frail people in nursing homes if you don't have a loved one in them.

    This poem comes to mind though..

    'Remember stranger, as you pass by,
    As you are now, so once was I.
    As I am now you soon will be,
    Prepare yourself for eternity. (to follow me.)'


    Charming.


  • #8967
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Dear god.

    only a +44% difference in cases and 61% increase in deaths!


    Why can't countries count?

    called massaging the numbers.


  • #8968
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    Whats the story with most irish patients in ICU being under 65?
    Are more young people infected in general in IReland ?


  • #8969
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    bekker wrote: »
    Risk is inseparable from existence.

    No one is forced to sit exams, many don't. But if you chose not to then you cannot complain of the consequences of loosing out on the potential benefits.

    In the context of my post parental influences are an irrelevancy, as is your attitude towards exams per se.

    Your final point is not supported by the facts :-
    Primary ~560k, post-primary ~370k, total ~930k. Certificated examinations JC 65k, LC 60k total 125k, so about 14%.

    Risk is inseparable from life but how does that have any meaning in this topic? So we Put children at risk for school exams because that’s just life?

    You didn’t address anything I said and are deflecting from the main point. If a child thinks a school exam is life or death, that’s a mental health issue that should be addressed regardless of the exams or their outcomes.

    If you can’t ensure child’s safety at an exam and schools won’t open for child safety, it’s irresponsible to have exams because that’s the way the system works in a normal school period. This is not a normal time and as such alternative options should be offered or considered. To suggest otherwise is head in the sand stuff.


  • #8970
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1246440600704090112?s=20

    https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1246442042311532547?s=20


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  • #8971
    iguana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,917 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I agree with the part about huggy, kissy.
    But that accounts only for infection rate and not death rate.

    It might is the viral load at acquisition theory has validity? Getting infected because someone coughs 3m away from you and an imperceptible spec of their saliva lands on your face would possibly lead to a lower initial viral load than someone kissing your face three times?


This discussion has been closed.
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