Property Market 2020

bdmc5 · 03-04-2020 1:30am

cd76 wrote: »

I don't share your optimism. If we had the "brains" work here it would be different.

Last few days of following this thread Ive these posts wildly speculating 30 percent drops in houses this year, that rental market is crashing and we will have mass emigration. I realised that these hysterical posts have all been left by you.

Like the rest of us you don’t have a clue what we happen at the end of the day. i would recommend if you are in the market for a home then dont buy as I dont think you will be able to tolerate the stress short to medium term drop in property prices.

You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. There’s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so it’s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.

Villa05 · 03-04-2020 6:11am

bdmc5 wrote:

You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. Thereâ€™s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so itâ€™s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.

Government and business coffers will be badly burned also highly leveraged business will be found out and fail. There will be no bottleneck of buyers. Prices were unaffordable at full employment in a booming economy.
They will be less affordable when the cost of this virus is deducted from everything

Your right nobody can predict the future, but you can make forecasts based on facts scenarios and trends.

Yurt2 · 03-04-2020 7:23am

bdmc5 wrote: »

Last few days of following this thread Ive these posts wildly speculating 30 percent drops in houses this year, that rental market is crashing and we will have mass emigration. I realised that these hysterical posts have all been left by you.

Like the rest of us you don’t have a clue what we happen at the end of the day. i would recommend if you are in the market for a home then dont buy as I dont think you will be able to tolerate the stress short to medium term drop in property prices.

You could argue The flip side When the time comes we come out of this there will be a huge bottle neck of buyers who had been holding off and developers will hold back stock to push up prices back up as mass employment slowly builds back up again. There’s still a large portion of people working from home earning full wages so it’s nowhere near as clear certain of a meltdown of The housing market as you make out.

As Bob Dylan once sang: 'You don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.'

Speculating on a possible 30 percent drop in house prices is not hysteria in the least. We're staring down the barrel of one of the most painful economic events in modern history.

voluntary · 03-04-2020 7:56am

The drop is inevitable but the size of it can't be predicted. Note, even after 2008 shock many European countries only reported tiny real estate corrections. Ireland was exceptional with it's pumped up to bubble and burst. Talking about specific numbers like 10% or 20% or 30% is premature and purely speculation.

BTW, The Central Bank has spoken:

Over the next three months, it believes the economy here could collapse by 25%.

Yurt2 · 03-04-2020 8:19am

voluntary wrote: »

The drop is inevitable but the size of it can't be predicted. Note, even after 2008 shock many European countries only reported tiny real estate corrections. Ireland was exceptional with it's pumped up to bubble and burst. Talking about specific numbers like 10% or 20% or 30% is premature and purely speculation.

BTW, The Central Bank has spoken:

Well of course it is speculation, but informed speculation is possibly wise at a time like this.

All businesses and individuals and arms of the public service will be grappling with this. There's an important utility in working out the permutations of this.

It's not hysteria to contemplate such drops. I'd rate the chances of drops of 30 percent or more as fairly high all things considered.

voluntary · 03-04-2020 8:32am

Why 30% and not 50% then?

Yurt2 · 03-04-2020 8:39am

voluntary wrote: »

Why 30% and not 50% then?

If the economy contracts to extent that the central bank thinks, all bets are off. 50 could well be on the cards.

It's not hysteria to speculate on these things. This event will do as much to reshape the global economy as the aftermath of the second world war.

This won't be business as usual and we may as get our heads around it now. Calling speculation on property prices hysteria is head in sand stuff.

DubCount · 03-04-2020 8:48am

I have to say, I feel some of this thread is driven by what people want to happen, and coming up with an argument to support that. If you're looking to buy or paying high rents, its natural to want to paint a picture of the future where houseprices are lower and rents are lower. If you've recently purchased, expecting prices not to drop is also natural.

I expect unemployment to be at 30% by June, but I cant see it being at 30% in December. This situation will create an economic downturn, but when lockdown is over, people will return to shopping in shops, eating in restaurants and going on holidays. We will not return to full employment, or be back economically to where we were last December, but activity will pick up to some degree after lockdown comes to an end.

I think its way too early to say what will happen to property. There was a significant overhang of demand over supply going into this. The extent to which that has permanently been eroded or reversed is a complete unknown. Also, some fundamental issues regarding the availability of affordable property have not gone away you know. The cost of building here and the planning process etc are still making the building of new homes in the volumes we require, difficult to achieve.

maestroamado · 03-04-2020 8:55am

Councils need to have their charges reigned in by legislation, the greedy bleeps got handed the huge windfall of property tax and they still want more. In the village near me, they were pulling up perfectly good concrete foot paths and replacing them with fancy brick paving. If they have the money to waste doing that, they have too much money

What you suggest is impossible.
There was an article in the Indo about 5 years ago about a County Council that was in financial difficulty and in debt,
The last line of the article said the said officer was on a salary of €132,000 a year, more than the Spanish Prime Minister.
I noticed when the last recession there was no change in Planning officers/Engineers/Planning staff when there was nothing happening.
That's the Country we have and that's what we deserve.

Steer55 · 03-04-2020 9:01am

pearcider wrote: »

There’s plenty of availability I think there’s a quarter of a million empty dwellings in Ireland. When the credit bubble collapses the market will clear a lot of these.

Many of them derelict with trees growing out through the roof along with a tin roof! Fat lot of good they are

voluntary · 03-04-2020 9:49am

DubCount wrote: »

I have to say, I feel some of this thread is driven by what people want to happen

Some? :rolleyes:

Pivot Eoin · 03-04-2020 9:51am

This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.

Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks.

Anything suggesting it's too early to tell (which it is) is being disputed by people who clearly are short term in their thinking wanting housing prices to fally by 30%.

Just hold out for now and see what happens, Whether Johnny Nobody thinks it is going to drop by 30% is irrelevant, just because someone says it on Boards, doesn't mean it will happen.

Relax.

landofthetree · 03-04-2020 9:58am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.

Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks.

Anything suggesting it's too early to tell (which it is) is being disputed by people who clearly are short term in their thinking wanting housing prices to fally by 30%.

Just hold out for now and see what happens, Whether Johnny Nobody thinks it is going to drop by 30% is irrelevant, just because someone says it on Boards, doesn't mean it will happen.

Relax.

It isn't too early to tell. Unemployment is going to hit 30%.

House prices will fall dramatically.

KilOit · 03-04-2020 9:58am

Why would anyone sell 30% below current market rate when all they have to do is wait till next year when things can somewhat get back to normal. People here are delusional

Interested Observer · 03-04-2020 10:00am

KilOit wrote: »

Why would anyone sell 30% below current market rate when all they have to do is wait till next year when things can somewhat get back to normal. People here are delusional

No.

Bargains for everyone.

Or so I've been reading on here for about the past 2+ years.

what_traffic · 03-04-2020 10:02am

DubCount wrote: »

I expect unemployment to be at 30% by June, but I cant see it being at 30% in December. This situation will create an economic downturn, but when lockdown is over, people will return to shopping in shops, eating in restaurants and going on holidays. We will not return to full employment, or be back economically to where we were last December, but activity will pick up to some degree after lockdown comes to an end.

All going well, it would be December 2022/23 before we are back to the economic levels we were at last December 2019.

landofthetree · 03-04-2020 10:03am

KilOit wrote: »

Why would anyone sell 30% below current market rate when all they have to do is wait till next year when things can somewhat get back to normal. People here are delusional

Jan 2021 with sell unemployment of 11% if we get things up and running by June/July according to the ERSI.

We are in for a rough time of it.

Recovery will take a long time.

Reversal · 03-04-2020 10:22am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.

Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks.

Anything suggesting it's too early to tell (which it is) is being disputed by people who clearly are short term in their thinking wanting housing prices to fally by 30%.

Just hold out for now and see what happens, Whether Johnny Nobody thinks it is going to drop by 30% is irrelevant, just because someone says it on Boards, doesn't mean it will happen.

Relax.

And just because John Nobody can't come to terms with the possibility that they bought at the top, doesn't make a fall in prices any less likely.

Agreed there is some outlandish claims and biases. But on both sides, have a look at the post history of those here saying prices won't drop, more often than not they are recent buyers.

What we do know now is;

1. The housing market had already softened throughout, with year on year drops seen in Dublin throughout 2019. Source CSO. This does not point to "pent up demand" that can weather a depression. Again we do have an undersupply when compared to what society needs, i.e that 35K units a year figure. But the demand for buying is far less than this, as it's only made up of people who can and want to buy. The levelling off, and dropping in some areas, of values throughout 2019 points to the 20K units a year approximately meeting the actual demand.

2. We are now entering an economic shock. And we are going into a recession. And now, there seems little hope of a V shape curve, most predictions show long lasting effects.

3. We have seen huge job losses. The best predictions we have are that half of these will be permanently lost.

4. A lot of those who are not jobless will see reduced incomes, and prospects of wage increases are gone.

5. Banks have already restricted lending. In some banks, exemptions above 3.5 times salary are already a thing of the past. The next thing that will be tightened up is likely to be LTV values. People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore. Buyers will be taken out of the market. And 20% of those who remain who would have got exemptions will now have their buying power reduced by 25%.

It is correct to say we don't know how this will go in exact percentage terms, but the likely direction is a foregone conclusion. But those believing in static prices, are just as deluded as the predictions for a drop of 50%. The truth is, in my opinion, probably somewhere in the middle. But only time will tell.

snotboogie · 03-04-2020 10:27am

cd76 wrote: »

I don't agree, Yes Corona is global but hopefully will be over(bar a second coming - hopefully not).
The US tech companies here are largely for support functions; Google, Linkedin, Facebook doing marketing and support. They will "right size" their organisations.
The most marketable people will emigrate as they did previously.
Trump is going to insist the majority of the US multinationals repatriate businesses. If he wins in Nov then it will not be good for the MNCs in Ireland...especially the Pharmas.

I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude. I don't think you have the first clue about how bad things would get here if your predictions were to come true. This would not be snobby marketing hipsters at Google being brought down a peg or two followed by a utopia of cheap accommodation, it would be the obliteration of our tax base, job market and public services, with a reach far beyond those directly working for multinationals.

At this moment, its really difficult to predict the economy in 6 to 9 months but I would take some comfort in the lack of accuracy of your predictions considering you are calling the Pharma industry to be brought to heel by the US Government, despite that same industry currently (and for the foreseeable future, long beyond November) having possibly the single biggest leverage position over the US government in our lifetimes.

voluntary · 03-04-2020 10:36am

Rents on daft already dropped by €200 for a 3 bed in my area.

Zenify · 03-04-2020 10:37am

snotboogie wrote: »

I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude

I have posted in many forums here about our dependence of these big multinationals at risk due to many factors, before Covud-19. They are at risk. I understand that our economy is dependent on them, we lived in poverty before them. I hope we dont lose any and we can keep them here somehow. Nothing "gleeful" about me.

seasidedub · 03-04-2020 10:45am

Wondering about the property market when this is all over.

If it goes on too long then I would expect prices to dramatically dip. If we get over it relatively quickly and the economy has not be severely damaged then I would still expect a price drop but perhaps not to post-tiger levels. Having said that, I know many would say the economy is already severely damaged.

One thing I am currently musing on is apartments - I've lived in apartments abroad for years as an owner and tenant. I don't feel they have ever really caught on here despite attempts by the powers that be. In fairness, even abroad, once the 2nd kid comes along most people do move to the suburbs to a little house, or build on family land etc. Exception being if they own spacious apartments in city centre desirable locations. But, I think in the current situation people are really seeing the value of even a small garden when on lockdown with kids. I have been looking for a property for a while and notice that a lot of the "super luxury" apartments I viewed just have not sold.

A few examples:

Marina Village - the 1st phase of this development was houses, all sold. The latest, large houses with sea views are still available, but the apartments which were going to be the last word - 6 owner occupiers in. The 57 remaining have been taken over by a property management company and are for rent. The prices were high, few of them actually had sea views, the yearly management fee was in excess of 2700k and folks just did not go for them.

Prospect House Blackrock - the houses in this development did sell, the apartments, 1 has sold so far. Highly priced, no balconies or outside spaces at all and absolutely no storage.

I think a lot of "luxury" apartments will be taken over by County Councils, HAP etc when this is all over to provide housing.

fliball123 · 03-04-2020 10:49am

Reversal wrote: »

And just because John Nobody can't come to terms with the possibility that they bought at the top, doesn't make a fall in prices any less likely.

Agreed there is some outlandish claims and biases. But on both sides, have a look at the post history of those here saying prices won't drop, more often than not they are recent buyers.

What we do know now is;

1. The housing market had already softened throughout, with year on year drops seen in Dublin throughout 2019. Source CSO. This does not point to "pent up demand" that can weather a depression. Again we do have an undersupply when compared to what society needs, i.e that 35K units a year figure. But the demand for buying is far less than this, as it's only made up of people who can and want to buy. The levelling off, and dropping in some areas, of values throughout 2019 points to the 20K units a year approximately meeting the actual demand.

2. We are now entering an economic shock. And we are going into a recession. And now, there seems little hope of a V shape curve, most predictions show long lasting effects.

3. We have seen huge job losses. The best predictions we have are that half of these will be permanently lost.

4. A lot of those who are not jobless will see reduced incomes, and prospects of wage increases are gone.

5. Banks have already restricted lending. In some banks, exemptions above 3.5 times salary are already a thing of the past. The next thing that will be tightened up is likely to be LTV values. People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore. Buyers will be taken out of the market. And 20% of those who remain who would have got exemptions will now have their buying power reduced by 25%.

It is correct to say we don't know how this will go in exact percentage terms, but the likely direction is a foregone conclusion. But those believing in static prices, are just as deluded as the predictions for a drop of 50%. The truth is, in my opinion, probably somewhere in the middle. But only time will tell.

Point1 I agree with you but your wrong if the banks took the lending restrictions away there would of been a lot more people buying and prices would of went up a lot more. How can you ignore the facts born out in the recent general election when SF won most votes stating it would be building a sh1t load more houses and figures were coming in that we needed 35k houses built year on year for the forseeable future (not just this and next year) to catch up with demand. Not to mention the figure of 100k on the housing list. You need to understand the difference between a house built in the back ass of no where and a house built in a place with amenities that a person can actually live in.

Now yes we will lose demand by OAPs dying, foreigners going home and people sitting on their savings and not spending, but we will also lose supply building sites are shut down, a lot of the foreign workers going home where builders or in that skillset i.e sparks, plumbers etc. Not to mention that pre corona builders were kicking a stink saying it was not economically viable for them to build and that was before your notion of a 30% price drop.

Point 2: yes we are after receiving a big shock and neither you or I or anyone else knows how this will pan out. I think the government are actually doing a good job with regards to looking after people who lost their jobs, it means life can go on. It is predicted that it will cost 30 billion about a fifth of the banking crisis in 08 but they are guessing as well.

Point 3: See point 2 you or I do not know how many jobs will remain lost. What I can see is Ireland has one of the best strategies for getting people back to work in the world, with the social welfare and those on it having access to jobs, training and education for those who want to can reskill and get back out there.

Point 4: Pay rises in work had not been happening much throughout the last decade after the bank crash very few people in the private sector got payrises. Public sector get increments. I wonder if the PS will have to take a pay cut again

Point 5: I cant see those measures taken out by the bank being tightened already there was a clamor for them to loosen the restrictions as this was a huge factor in people being able to afford a house.

Overall point people need to stop stating what way this will go this is unprecedented we have not seen it before so predictions are null and void.

OttoPilot · 03-04-2020 10:59am

snotboogie wrote: »

I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude. I don't think you have the first clue about how bad things would get here if your predictions were to come true. This would not be snobby marketing hipsters at Google being brought down a peg or two followed by a utopia of cheap accommodation, it would be the obliteration of our tax base, job market and public services, with a reach far beyond those directly working for multinationals.

At this moment, its really difficult to predict the economy in 6 to 9 months but I would take some comfort in the lack of accuracy of your predictions considering you are calling the Pharma industry to be brought to heel by the US Government, despite that same industry currently (and for the foreseeable future, long beyond November) having possibly the single biggest leverage position over the US government in our lifetimes.

Not all pharma and healthcare is doing well at the moment. Only those companies related to treating Coronavirus. The rest of healthcare seems to have seized up based on Holohans comments this week.

Reversal · 03-04-2020 11:05am

fliball123 wrote: »

Point1 I agree with you but your wrong if the banks took the lending restrictions away there would of been a lot more people buying and prices would of went up a lot more. How can you ignore the facts born out in the recent general election when SF won most votes stating it would be building a sh1t load more houses and figures were coming in that we needed 35k houses built year on year for the forseeable future (not just this and next year) to catch up with demand. Not to mention the figure of 100k on the housing list. You need to understand the difference between a house built in the back ass of no where and a house built in a place with amenities that a person can actually live in.

Now yes we will lose demand by OAPs dying, foreigners going home and people sitting on their savings and not spending, but we will also lose supply building sites are shut down, a lot of the foreign workers going home where builders or in that skillset i.e sparks, plumbers etc. Not to mention that pre corona builders were kicking a stink saying it was not economically viable for them to build and that was before your notion of a 30% price drop.

Point 2: yes we are after receiving a big shock and neither you or I or anyone else knows how this will pan out. I think the government are actually doing a good job with regards to looking after people who lost their jobs, it means life can go on. It is predicted that it will cost 30 billion about a fifth of the banking crisis in 08 but they are guessing as well.

Point 3: See point 2 you or I do not know how many jobs will remain lost. What I can see is Ireland has one of the best strategies for getting people back to work in the world, with the social welfare and those on it having access to jobs, training and education for those who want to can reskill and get back out there.

Point 4: Pay rises in work had not been happening much throughout the last decade after the bank crash very few people in the private sector got payrises. Public sector get increments. I wonder if the PS will have to take a pay cut again

Point 5: I cant see those measures taken out by the bank being tightened already there was a clamor for them to loosen the restrictions as this was a huge factor in people being able to afford a house.

Overall point people need to stop stating what way this will go this is unprecedented we have not seen it before so predictions are null and void.

Point 1. I acknowledged there is societal need for 35K units a year. My point is there are not 35K people in a position to buy, not close to it. The SF surge was based on people who had lost all hope of buying. Yes they need a home, but they do not make up demand for houses to buy. And definitely won't after this recession. That is not evidence of demand to buy. It's evidence of a need for housing. Different things unfortunately, so is the inequality we see in Ireland now.

The predictions on the economy and jobs are not my own. ESRI, EY, KBC and central bank are all singing off the same hymn sheet in recent days, i.e No bounce back, significant portion of jobs lost are gone for good. To many links to post but it's been all over the news. A quick Google will supply you with all the info you need.

The banks have tightened lending already and will likely to do so in the future. This is well reported, again unless you've been living under a rock you surely have seen this reported?

The number one evidence of bias is a subconscious tendency to ignore evidence. Seems to be getting more common in here recent days. It's like some haven't opened a newspaper in a month.

Cyrus · 03-04-2020 11:09am

fliball123 wrote: »

Point 4: Pay rises in work had not been happening much throughout the last decade after the bank crash very few people in the private sector got payrises. Public sector get increments. I wonder if the PS will have to take a pay cut again

.

pay rises havent been happening? of course they have, maybe not in some sectors but in plenty of others pay has been increasing quite a lot.

what_traffic · 03-04-2020 11:17am

what_traffic wrote: »

All going well, it would be December 2022/23 before we are back to the economic levels we were at last December 2019.

Prediction here already looks wildly optimistic after reading the following

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-warns-of-22bn-hole-in-public-finances-from-coronavirus-crisis-1.4219419
"
The Central Bank has warned that the coronavirus crisis is likely to blow a €22 billion hole in the State’s finances and could see half a million people losing their jobs.
"

fliball123 · 03-04-2020 11:19am

Reversal wrote: »

Point 1. I acknowledged there is societal need for 35K units a year. My point is there are not 35K people in a position to buy, not close to it. The SF surge was based on people who had lost all hope of buying. Yes they need a home, but they do not make up demand for houses to buy. And definitely won't after this recession. That is not evidence of demand to buy. It's evidence of a need for housing. Different things unfortunately, so is the inequality we see in Ireland now.

The predictions on the economy and jobs are not my own. ESRI, EY, KBC and central bank are all singing off the same hymn sheet in recent days, i.e No bounce back, significant portion of jobs lost are gone for good. To many links to post but it's been all over the news. A quick Google will supply you with all the info you need.

The banks have tightened lending already and will likely to do so in the future. This is well reported, again unless you've been living under a rock you surely have seen this reported?

The number one evidence of bias is a subconscious tendency to ignore evidence. Seems to be getting more common in here recent days. It's like some haven't opened a newspaper in a month.

The main reason for them not being able to buy is due to the landing restrictions.

So how do you come to the conclusion that people who need and want a home can not be added to the list of people who are on the demand list and wanting a home. That is like saying I want and need to eat a chicken but I am on the vegan list?

So do you think the country can afford to, at a time when we are going further in debt and dealing with the issues you have stated and add in the fact that for the last decade we have struggled to build enough houses for demand and now you think we can just give everyone a home for free maybe in your price drop theory your thinking 100% price drop? I say this as if a person who wants and needs a house is not considered on the demand for one then you think they will get it for free? that is the only conclusion I can make with what you are saying?

KY, ESRI and KBC have got as many predictions wrong as they have right. There is not one expert in any of those companies who have experienced this. Sure who called the last crash we had experts from the above spinning a soft landing and lead to the government stating the same. So once again I adhere to the principle of no one knows whats going to happen.

They have tightened while corona is going on and it will have little effect as there will be very few property transactions going on while corona is here. You only have to look at the process of buying a house, you need surveyors, solicitors, bank staff, an EA, plumbers, sparks, movers. Your not going to get all of these together to sort your move until after corona so why would anyone put themselves through the stress of moving at this particular time? As I say it will be a very low number. The restrictions will be removed once Corona is gone.

So can you explain how someone who needs and wants a house cannot be considered on the demand side for a house?

greengrass88 · 03-04-2020 11:22am

As someone who wants to get on the Dublin property ladder, seeing "People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore" is very worrying. Is this really very likely?

fliball123 · 03-04-2020 11:25am

greengrass88 wrote: »

As someone who wants to get on the Dublin property ladder, seeing "People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore" is very worrying. Is this really very likely?

Well the UK have upped it to only dealing with people who have 40% deposits but dont worry some on here think property will take 100% drop and you can have 2 or 3 houses no bother

Property Market 2020

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