Property Market 2020

na1

I think with many people stop paying income tax & PRSI and starting getting 350 from the revenue, it won't be long before ECB will switch on the money printing machine... This will starts the inflation in Eurozone

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

The main reason for them not being able to buy is due to the landing restrictions.

So how do you come to the conclusion that people who need and want a home can not be added to the list of people who are on the demand list and wanting a home. That is like saying I want and need to eat a chicken but I am on the vegan list?

So do you think the country can afford to, at a time when we are going further in debt and dealing with the issues you have stated and add in the fact that for the last decade we have struggled to build enough houses for demand and now you think we can just give everyone a home for free maybe in your price drop theory your thinking 100% price drop? I say this as if a person who wants and needs a house is not considered on the demand for one then you think they will get it for free? that is the only conclusion I can make with what you are saying?

KY, ESRI and KBC have got as many predictions wrong as they have right. There is not one expert in any of those companies who have experienced this. Sure who called the last crash we had experts from the above spinning a soft landing and lead to the government stating the same. So once again I adhere to the principle of no one knows whats going to happen.

They have tightened while corona is going on and it will have little effect as there will be very few property transactions going on while corona is here. You only have to look at the process of buying a house, you need surveyors, solicitors, bank staff, an EA, plumbers, sparks, movers. Your not going to get all of these together to sort your move until after corona so why would anyone put themselves through the stress of moving at this particular time? As I say it will be a very low number. The restrictions will be removed once Corona is gone.

So can you explain how someone who needs and wants a house cannot be considered on the demand side for a house?

It's simple, 35k people need housing. Only 20k have any hope of getting a mortgage. ~15K are long term unemployed, unable to work, part time, low paid, ****ty contracts etc. The list goes on. Such is the unfair nature of Ireland lately. These people are never going to be part of buying demand. So this "pent up demand" will never keep the property market afloat in the coming depression.

While we need to build to 35k units a year to house every citizen. Nobody ever said there will be 35k buyers waiting with mortgage approval ready to pounce on everything thats goes on the market. This point is often misunderstood.

So ESRI and co know nothing, but you are confident they bare wrong. I strongly disagree that mortgage lending will return to normal once the Corona goes away. It will eventually if course. But banks will have much worse liquidity and this is going bro restrict their scope for lending. Denial of this fact shows lack of basic understanding to be perfectly honest with you.

ZX7R

Reversal wrote: »

Point 1. I acknowledged there is societal need for 35K units a year. My point is there are not 35K people in a position to buy, not close to it. The SF surge was based on people who had lost all hope of buying. Yes they need a home, but they do not make up demand for houses to buy. And definitely won't after this recession. That is not evidence of demand to buy. It's evidence of a need for housing. Different things unfortunately, so is the inequality we see in Ireland now.

The predictions on the economy and jobs are not my own. ESRI, EY, KBC and central bank are all singing off the same hymn sheet in recent days, i.e No bounce back, significant portion of jobs lost are gone for good. To many links to post but it's been all over the news. A quick Google will supply you with all the info you need.

The banks have tightened lending already and will likely to do so in the future. This is well reported, again unless you've been living under a rock you surely have seen this reported?

The number one evidence of bias is a subconscious tendency to ignore evidence. Seems to be getting more common in here recent days. It's like some haven't opened a newspaper in a month.

I'm sorry but your nit picking on the reports from ersi, ey and KCB
None are seeing a complete bounce back correct, but even they are sighting a bounce back in certain areas.
House prices will fall but some of the % drops been thrown around are crazy.

listermint

Mrisolation wrote: »

Have a booking deposit down on a house for 466k just before covid 19 really kicked off. Contracts arrived this week, rang the EA and indicated due to the world being turned upside down im looking for a 10% discount, he was not impressed but will return to seller with offer, il prob loose the house now as there was a lot of interest and bidders but it's not the same world anymore

right decision, Nobody knows what the outlook will be but its not immediately positive looking now. Anyone signing today on a price agreed last month is really rolling the dice. Id half agree with the 'long term' home speak but on the flip side LTV is a strong factor where remortgaging or changing providers comes into play.

Anyone telling you its grand and 5% next year and so on il look upon as having ulterior motives.

There is no wealthy people buying right now, they will be waiting till the dust settles so why would you.....

Claw Hammer

listermint wrote: »

r

There is no wealthy people buying right now, they will be waiting till the dust settles so why would you.....

There have been sales on Bidx1 this week. Since they were occupied rental properties, they would have been bought for cash for investment purposes. I would regard people with cash to do a ting like that as wealthy. Maybe you have a different definition of wealth?

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

It's simple, 35k people need housing. Only 20k have any hope of getting a mortgage. ~15K are long term unemployed, unable to work, part time, low paid, ****ty contracts etc. The list goes on. Such is the unfair nature of Ireland lately. These people are never going to be part of buying demand. So this "pent up demand" will never keep the property market afloat in the coming depression.

While Wlee need to build to 35k units a year to house every citizen. Nobody ever said there will be 35k buyers waiting with mortgage approval ready to pounce on everything thats goes on the market. This point is often misunderstood.

Where are you getting 35k need a house from this is a fraction of the number that need houses...The figure of 35k was a yearly figure of new houses needed to be built this year alone. Also on that point there has been a discrepancy of houses needed to houses built for the last decade as in we have built too few houses to house our population.

Anyone on the long term unemployment or working part time or working a low paying job can phuck off with themselves if they think they deserve a house if you want a house go out and work for it or up skill or re-educate and get a better job. Anyone who cant work due to disability fair enough we need to look after vulnerable people.

So I understand you a little more but can you tell me now where your getting the figure of 35k from that need housing? As I understand there is already over 100k on the housing list which is the mechanism used for people on disability and low wage that need housing?

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

Well the UK have upped it to only dealing with people who have 40% deposits but dont worry some on here think property will take 100% drop and you can have 2 or 3 houses no bother

A complete misinterpretation. Again, probably non intentional as you seem resistant to unsettling information. 15-20% drop over the next 18 months in not unlikely. 50% drops and 0-5% drops are both extremely unlikely at this point.

If we are not going to take the current info on board we are best off waiting for 18 months to see how it panned out. That will be indisputable.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

A complete misinterpretation. Again, probably non intentional as you seem resistant to unsettling information. 15-20% drop over the next 18 months in not unlikely. 50% drops and 0-5% drops are both extremely unlikely at this point.

If we are not going to take the current info on board we are best off waiting for 18 months to see how it panned out. That will be indisputable.

Where are you getting 15 to 20% from? I do agree with you waiting is best I have not advised anyone to buy or sell as that would be wrong I don't know how this is going to pan out and no one does

beauf

If you had loads of money sitting in the bank you would sit on it.

The only exception the that is if a property comes up in a hard to get location, or a location that you want badly, or is ideal for you.

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting 35k need a house from this is a fraction of the number that need houses...The figure of 35k was a yearly figure of new houses needed to be built this year alone. Also on that point there has been a discrepancy of houses needed to houses built for the last decade as in we have built too few houses to house our population.

Anyone on the long term unemployment or working part time or working a low paying job can phuck off with themselves if they think they deserve a house if you want a house go out and work for it or up skill or re-educate and get a better job. Anyone who cant work due to disability fair enough we need to look after vulnerable people.

So I understand you a little more but can you tell me now where your getting the figure of 35k from that need housing? As I understand there is already over 100k on the housing list which is the mechanism used for people on disability and low wage that need housing?

Apologies a little unclear. 35k units being built a year is the target to meet the demand of the private market and to house those you deem unworthy of housing. If you think they don't deserve it, then we should only be building 20K units a year or less to meet private demand.

35K a year is the nominal target stated by government. It's is often misrepresented on here as the demand in the private market. It is far from that.

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

If you had loads of money sitting in the bank you wold sit on it.

The only exception the that is if a property comes up in a hard to get location, or a location that you want badly, or is ideal for you.

If you sat on the bank you would be done for trespassing.

Claw Hammer

35k a year is the estimated rate of household formation increase.

Reversal

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting 15 to 20% from? I do agree with you waiting is best I have not advised anyone to buy or sell as that would be wrong I don't know how this is going to pan out and no one does

It's an opinion, I give that, rough numbers provided below. But given the fundamentals at play here, that figure is more likely than both a 50% drop and prices remaining unchanged.

Removal of LTI exemptions alone will remove the amount of cash in the market by 5%, easy maths anyone can do, so that the minimum effect. Now people can interpret the likely further restrictions I lending, potential loss of HTB, job losses and earning reductions and deduce the result themselves. The maginiti

na1

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting 15 to 20% from? I do agree with you waiting is best I have not advised anyone to buy or sell as that would be wrong I don't know how this is going to pan out and no one does

Crystall ball?

Diarmuid

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks.
.

Most posters thanks a post not because they hope something will happen, but because they agree with the analysis.

I never thought it would be controversial to suggest that one of the largest reductions in world GDP, in the last 100 years, will drive down property prices in Ireland but there you go.

Villa05

snotboogie wrote:

I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude. I don't think you have the first clue about how bad things would get here if your predictions were to come true. This would not be snobby marketing hipsters at Google being brought down a peg or two followed by a utopia of cheap accommodation, it would be the obliteration of our tax base, job market and public services, with a reach far beyond those directly working for multinationals.

I don't think anyone is gleeful. Most would have experience of seeing them come and go in their working life. It's important to not depend on them and maybe learn from them and build our own multinationals.

Pivot Eoin wrote:

This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.

I would disagree. The pro property buying voice is very strong in this country with vested interests everywhere. The fact is that the Irish property market has been broken for more than 25 years with annual falls and rises in double digit percentile measurements almost every year in that time. That is a sign of a broken market.

To have a broken market in a must have item like that in what is the most expensive item the vast majority of us will ever buy is very dangerous for the buyer, seller, financier and the state.

We have been educated to our great cost to this danger in the recent past. Despite this great cost, we have failed to learn the lessons of the last crash and have once again but the State and it citizens at risk from sky high property prices by allowing supply and demand to become substantially imbalanced

I think it is important to inform others of the dangers in entering the Irish property market and give a bit of balance to the vested interest cheer leader groups

snotboogie

OttoPilot wrote: »

Not all pharma and healthcare is doing well at the moment. Only those companies related to treating Coronavirus. The rest of healthcare seems to have seized up based on Holohans comments this week.

The US Govt's best case scenario is for a domestic big Pharma company to come up with a vaccine or an effective treatment over the next 12 to 18 months. What I am saying is that the idea that these companies (and all but one or two have a large base in Ireland) will be uniquely exposed to coerced tax repatriation policies by the US govt in the near term is ridiculous.

Reversal

snotboogie wrote: »

The US Govt's best case scenario is for a domestic big Pharma company to come up with a vaccine or an effective treatment over the next 12 to 18 months. What I am saying is that the idea that these companies (and all but one or two have a large base in Ireland) will be uniquely exposed to coerced tax repatriation policies by the US govt in the near term is ridiculous.

You do know that exact policy is being proposed by POTUS now yeah? Not saying it will happen, but dismissing the possibility when it's potentially in the works is irresponsible.

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

Apologies a little unclear. 35k units being built a year is the target to meet the demand of the private market and to house those you deem unworthy of housing. If you think they don't deserve it, then we should only be building 20K units a year or less to meet private demand.

35K a year is the nominal target stated by government. It's is often misrepresented on here as the demand in the private market. It is far from that.

I don't deem them unworthy I just think its unfair to ask people to pay for their housing when they are struggling and working your balls off to pay for their own house and they dont want to work or better themselves. If someone is on the dole, people working are already paying for their welfare and paying for them to have the opportunity to re-skill or educate to get a better job.

I am sure the government didn't pluck the 35k target a year out of the air, there must of been some due diligence. As I say the housing list is there for people who like you say will not be getting a mortgage and these do not factor into the demand. Even at 20k a year there is no way 20k houses are being built this year further increasing demand.
I think a lot of people will be wrong as there will be a lot of unintended consequences to this emergency. Just off the top of my head

Denting demand/Increasing supply

OAPs dying of corona - Increasing Supply

Foreigners going home - Increasing Supply

Banks not lending as much as they used to- Denting Demand

Workers being taxed more to pay for Corona - Denting demand

Lots of unemployment - Denting demand

Denting supply/|Increasing demand

OAPs dying of Corona - Kids will be getting a big inheritance and most likely a house - Decreasing supply and giving people more money to buy so Increasing demand.

Foreigners going home - A lot of tradesmen going home to their home countries - Denting supply

Houses not being built and no money to build for the next couple of years - Denting Supply

We will have a lot more people working in the PS by the end of the year (guaranteed jobs) - Increasing demand

A lot of Irish people will emigrate back home to be with family - Increasing Demand

Businesses/Entrepreneurs - Changing moving with the times and making money. Already prisons have workshops making antibacterial hand wash. Hotels/Stadiums being used as emergency accommodation for the sick. Business switching to online mechanisms to work. - Increasing demand


This is just a small snap shot of areas that will affect the property ladder and are just a few. No one knows what way it will go in the above example OAPs dying has been spouted as a mechanism to bring more properties into play but it also has the effect of children increasing their purchasing power through inheritance and the house will go to the kids? Just one of those unintended consequences people do not see or think about.

Assetbacked

I post with some glee as the super massive big tech companies (FAAGM) are eroding democracy (they are too big and powerful), contributing to the unsustainability of capitalism (by preventing competition and encouraging inequality) and representing the destructive aspects of globalisation. Paying little to no tax on their earnings as a result of immoral accounting practices is all part of the race to the bottom.

In Ireland, some have adopted the US attitude of growth at all costs is necessarily a good thing and part of that is enabling the big US multinationals harvest our resources in return for illegitimate corporate taxation. The cost? A swell in demand for infrastructure, transport, healthcare and housing, pushing everything beyond breaking point and contributing to a thoroughly unhappy society as demonstrated by the recent election results. A data protection regulator entrusted to protect the rights of EU citizens is in effect a paper tiger as the instruction is to not look a gift horse in the mouth for the few shilling that comes in to the exchequer. For the good of healthy capitalism and society generally, seeing the big US tech multinationals taken down a few pegs is not a bad thing.

cnocbui

na1 wrote: »

I think with many people stop paying income tax & PRSI and starting getting 350 from the revenue, it won't be long before ECB will switch on the money printing machine... This will starts the inflation in Eurozone

No it won't. The only thing that can start inflation is a meaningful rise in people's purchasing power through widespread wage and sallary increases or a significant reduction in taxes. The last won't happen because the government has to fund the second highest average public sector salaries in the EU.



People in Ireland are generally impoverished through taxation to support a very expensive and inefficient public sector. I believe this is largly why there is such a housing affordability problem in this country - the level of taxation is just too high.

Cue an outburst of outrage that I'm wrong because if you look at GDP. GDP is gods gift to the Irish government for it to hide how bad things are here. We spend near the highest on healthcare by GDP.... Ireland's tax burden is low as a percentage of GDP... Ireland's Public Service cost as a percentage of GDP is low...

fliball123

Assetbacked wrote: »

I post with some glee as the super massive big tech companies (FAAGM) are eroding democracy (they are too big and powerful), contributing to the unsustainability of capitalism (by preventing competition and encouraging inequality) and representing the destructive aspects of globalisation. Paying little to no tax on their earnings as a result of immoral accounting practices is all part of the race to the bottom.

In Ireland, some have adopted the US attitude of growth at all costs is necessarily a good thing and part of that is enabling the big US multinationals harvest our resources in return for illegitimate corporate taxation. The cost? A swell in demand for infrastructure, transport, healthcare and housing, pushing everything beyond breaking point and contributing to a thoroughly unhappy society as demonstrated by the recent election results. A data protection regulator entrusted to protect the rights of EU citizens is in effect a paper tiger as the instruction is to not look a gift horse in the mouth fit the few shilling that comes in to the exchequer. For the good of healthy capitalism and society generally, seeing the big US tech multinationals taken down a few pegs is not a bad thing.

If the multinationals in this country leave the country is phucked, we may as well all jump on a plane to Zimbabwe and turn the lights off

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

If the multinationals in this country leave the country is phucked, we may as well all jump on a plane to Zimbabwe and turn the lights off

This is ridiculous and is part of the cap in hand, small time thinking of a lot of Irish people take who don't have enough confidence about themselves and their country. It should not be all or nothing, it is about aiming for a fairer society. The government won't do it so it takes a US led economic struggle to release the pressure valve in the Irish economy. We are an open, English speaking, educated economy (as everyone can see from the IDA promos), with a good standard of living, stable political situation and good to raise families in, we are not the failed economy like we were after 2008 begging the world to save us from ourselves. This mindset needs to change.

fliball123

Assetbacked wrote: »

This is ridiculous and is part of the cap in hand, small time thinking of a lot of Irish people take who don't have enough confidence about themselves and their country. It should not be all or nothing, it is about aiming for a fairer society. The government won't do it so it takes a US led economic struggle to release the pressure valve in the Irish economy. We are an open, English speaking, educated economy (as everyone can see from the IDA promos), with a good standard of living, stable political situation and good to raise families in, we are not the failed economy like we were after 2008 begging the world to save us from ourselves. This mindset needs to change.

So you think that phucking the Multinationals over would be a good thing.???

How much did they pay last year in corpo tax
How much income tax did their workers pay
How many other businesses relay on these companies and how much tax to they pay.

With the exception of the public sector, multinationals employ more people than any other sector.

If they leave the country we are phucked thats a fact there would be too much money gone yearly to make up and when you have a public sector and welfare system that are both hemorrhaging money who do you think will pay for this add in the increase in dole for the ex-multinational employees. ??

The Belly

fliball123 wrote: »

So you think that phucking the Multinationals over would be a good thing.???

How much did they pay last year in corpo tax
How much income tax did their workers pay
How many other businesses relay on these companies and how much tax to they pay.

With the exception of the public sector, multinationals employ more people than any other sector.

If they leave the country we are phucked thats a fact there would be too much money gone yearly to make up and when you have a public sector and welfare system that are both hemorrhaging money who do you think will pay for this add in the increase in dole for the ex-multinational employees. ??

In business, people work for big MNC's for a while then decided to go it alone. Massive risks and all that no wage no pension but they build and compete with the best. There is absolutley no reason we cant on a national scale.

Round Cable

cnocbui wrote: »

No it won't. The only thing that can start inflation is a meaningful rise in people's purchasing power through widespread wage and sallary increases or a significant reduction in taxes. The last won't happen because the government has to fund the second highest average public sector salaries in the EU.



People in Ireland are generally impoverished through taxation to support a very expensive and inefficient public sector. I believe this is largely why there is such a housing affordability problem in this country - the level of taxation is just too high.

Cue an outburst of outrage that I'm wrong because if you look at GDP. GDP is gods gift to the Irish government for it to hide how bad things are here. We spend near the highest on healthcare by GDP.... Ireland's tax burden is low as a percentage of GDP... Ireland's Public Service cost as a percentage of GDP is low...

You do know that your own attached picture states "the figures for Luxembourg and Ireland are often deceptive due to their highly advantageous tax arrangements"?

Steer55

fliball123 wrote: »

I

Denting demand/Increasing supply

OAPs dying of corona - Increasing Supply



OAPs dying of Corona - Kids will be getting a big inheritance and most likely a house .

.

Not many OAP's have died (less than 100 deaths in country so far) and this virus is expected to.peak in next few weeks. We not going to see nothing like the level of deaths among OAP's dying in this country unlike what's happening in Italy or Spain.
Thankfully

fliball123

Steer55 wrote: »

Not many OAP's have died (less than 100 deaths in country so far) and this virus is expected to.peak in next few weeks. We not going to see nothing like the level of deaths among OAP's dying in this country unlike what's happening in Italy or Spain.
Thankfully

I know this but who knows how many will. I am only pointing out that those who think prices will drop by 30%+ are explaining that this is one of the reasons why supply will increase

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

So you think that phucking the Multinationals over would be a good thing.???

How much did they pay last year in corpo tax
How much income tax did their workers pay
How many other businesses relay on these companies and how much tax to they pay.

With the exception of the public sector, multinationals employ more people than any other sector.

If they leave the country we are phucked thats a fact there would be too much money gone yearly to make up and when you have a public sector and welfare system that are both hemorrhaging money who do you think will pay for this add in the increase in dole for the ex-multinational employees. ??

Why would they leave? A restraint on growth the next few years is all that would be needed to allow services and infrastructure to catch up. Let's not beat around the bush, the growth the last few years has been in GDP name only, we have not set on the path to a stable recovery since the crash in 2008. With every passing year, working tax payers are getting poorer due to increased housing, healthcare, insurance childcare costs with no tax cuts to alleviate the burden. Housing and public transport in particular have suffered massively due to the constant influx of workers from other countries. Something had to give in the absence of meaningful government intervention and we saw this something with the recent election result benefiting the very populist SF. We need to align more with the interests of Europe than the anti-EU US and UK as we have more in common and owe so much to the EU project. US multinationals are walking all over us and hurting our reputation at the EU top tables the more we bend over for them and if the companies would up and leave like people claim then it is clear they do not have a lot of loyalty to the society and its people.

Remember, spending has also increased significantly the past few years and the ESRI have been lamenting this, arguing for a longer term policy than corporate tax receipts from a few companies. As such, reducing spending and focusing on other aspects of the economy will offset negative aspects from losing some of the tax income from big tech multinationals.

Rainmann

Steer55 wrote: »

Not many OAP's have died (less than 100 deaths in country so far) and this virus is expected to.peak in next few weeks. We not going to see nothing like the level of deaths among OAP's dying in this country unlike what's happening in Italy or Spain.
Thankfully

Yeah, I can't really see that having any impact on house prices. Some of the other points were fair but there would want to be a large number of deaths for that the have any meaningful impact which thankfully it is not looking that way.