Property Market 2020

snotboogie

Assetbacked wrote: »

I post with some glee as the super massive big tech companies (FAAGM) are eroding democracy (they are too big and powerful), contributing to the unsustainability of capitalism (by preventing competition and encouraging inequality) and representing the destructive aspects of globalisation. Paying little to no tax on their earnings as a result of immoral accounting practices is all part of the race to the bottom.

In Ireland, some have adopted the US attitude of growth at all costs is necessarily a good thing and part of that is enabling the big US multinationals harvest our resources in return for illegitimate corporate taxation. The cost? A swell in demand for infrastructure, transport, healthcare and housing, pushing everything beyond breaking point and contributing to a thoroughly unhappy society as demonstrated by the recent election results. A data protection regulator entrusted to protect the rights of EU citizens is in effect a paper tiger as the instruction is to not look a gift horse in the mouth for the few shilling that comes in to the exchequer. For the good of healthy capitalism and society generally, seeing the big US tech multinationals taken down a few pegs is not a bad thing.

We'd be done if that happens. 20% of our entire yearly tax take comes directly from US Multinationals. That's before your count the PRSI of their workers, before you count how many SME they directly support. We would be looking at a 50% decrease in total tax take.

Rainmann

snotboogie wrote: »

We'd be done if that happens. 20% of our entire yearly tax take comes directly from US Multinationals. That's before your count the PRSI of their workers, before you count how many SME they directly support. We would be looking at a 50% decrease in total tax take.

That's why Sinn Fein would be a disaster.

Villa05

greengrass88 wrote:

As someone who wants to get on the Dublin property ladder, seeing "People with 10% deposits or close to will find themselves not being eligible for a mortgage anymore" is very worrying. Is this really very likely?

If your worries come to fruitition, house prices will fall substantially over time. Use this time to improve your capacity to borrow. Find a cheaper housing option to your current setup, increase your savings and turn what you consider to be a negative into a positive

cnocbui wrote:

People in Ireland are generally impoverished through taxation to support a very expensive and inefficient public sector. I believe this is largly why there is such a housing affordability problem in this country - the level of taxation is just too high.

People are impoverished because of a high cost of living, excessive accomodation costs are massive factor in this problem. Housing, childcare. Taxation to subsidise the many who can't afford current prices

Laying into the public sector when many are on the front line risking their lives and their families to try and keep your ass safe is a bit low for my liking

Idbatterim

bear in mind that while the PS pay and practices here in many areas are ridiculous. Many are paying the marginal rate of tax over a pittance. The main ridiculous area, is the welfare system and allowing people to live in the state owned social housing worth billions, for a total pittance.

Free gp visits etc, free transport for hundreds of thousands. Its a total disgrace. There should be a several billion swing from welfare, towards reducing marginal rate of tax ?(which is simply at the point of diminishing returns in many cases) and this money should be used to pay down debt, provide affordable housing for workers and infrastructure investment primarily, IMO...

build far more prison spaces too! Whats the point in extra guards, when they cant even lock away repeat offender scum bag after endless offences?

The word "FAIR" is bandied about in this country, like no other! How is it "fair" to give one person an equivalent lotto windfall, often paid for by a person, with a far worse standard of living, even when working?

cnocbui

snotboogie wrote: »

We'd be done if that happens. 20% of our entire yearly tax take comes directly from US Multinationals. That's before your count the PRSI of their workers, before you count how many SME they directly support. We would be looking at a 50% decrease in total tax take.

In 2018, the corporate tax take in total, was 18.7% of receipts, the multinationals slice of that would be lower, so where are you getting your 20% is from multinationals from?

voluntary

Multinationals hire people, pay wages and pay a lot of employees income tax, they offer stock options, so there's a capital gain tax, they pay dividends on these stocks, so there's even more income tax, they pay health insurance, so there's a lot of money flowing to the healthcare system and a lot of other stuff.

cnocbui

Round Cable wrote: »

You do know that your own attached picture states "the figures for Luxembourg and Ireland are often deceptive due to their highly advantageous tax arrangements"?

Yeah, they agreeing with me, they are referring to the GDP distortion that I am referring to.

snotboogie

cnocbui wrote: »

In 2018, the corporate tax take in total, was 18.7% of receipts, the multinationals slice of that would be lower, so where are you getting your 20% is from multinationals from?

Incorrect, in 2018 Corporation tax was 24% of our total tax take. 10.4 billion in Corporation tax out of a total tax take of 43.7 billion:

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/receipts/net-receipts-by-county.pdf

The total multinational contribution is about 80-85% of the total corporation tax so right in at 20% of our total tax take. This went up in 2019 too but the figures aren't out yet.

astrofool

I'm not sure if people are realising what's happening here. Previous crash was the prudent vs. the spend thrift, and the prudent won and set the rules (as they still had cash in the bank to handle it).

What's happened this time is the world supply of money is being increased by figures never seen before (2.2trn being added to the US, 300bn to the UK, Europe doing similar). Majority of jobs will come back when isolation ends, however, the money to keep people going during these months will remain, pushing inflation higher. The markets are already escaping to bonds and gold, property is one of the items that remains valuable and more resistant to inflation, so may end seeing an upside after the crisis is over.

We will however see the value of the money in people's pockets drop by 10-20% over the next few years, depending what capital controls are put in place.

cnocbui

snotboogie wrote: »

Incorrect, in 2018 Corporation tax was 24% of our total tax take. 10.4 billion in Corporation tax out of a total tax take of 43.7 billion:

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/statistics/receipts/net-receipts-by-county.pdf

The total multinational contribution is about 80-85% of the total corporation tax so right in at 20% of our total tax take. This went up in 2019 too but the figures aren't out yet.

By county, is wrong.

Here are the real numbers: http://databank.finance.gov.ie/FinDataBank.aspx?rep=TaxYrTrend

ittakestwo

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathmines/123-the-mews-observatory-lane-rathmines-dublin-2013481/

There was a 4 bed house in Rathmines put on Daft for 5000pm at the beginning of March. Its now at €2750 with multiple price drops over the last 3 weeks. With the pictures of towels on the bed I would presume an ex Airbnb. Shocking to think they thought they could get €5000pm for that townhouse. It does not even have a living room for that rent.

The rent has gone like this;

March 13 €5000pm
March 18 €4750pm
March 20 €4500pm
March 23 €4250pm
March 25 €3750pm
March 27 €3250pm
March 31 €2999pm
April 03 €2750pm

lomb

ittakestwo wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathmines/123-the-mews-observatory-lane-rathmines-dublin-2013481/

There was a 4 bed house in Rathmines put on Daft for 5000pm at the beginning of March. Its now at €2750 with multiple price drops over the last 3 weeks. With the pictures of towels on the bed I would presume an ex Airbnb. Shocking to think they thought they could get €5000pm for that townhouse. It does not even have a living room for that rent.

The rent has gone like this;

March 13 €5000pm
March 18 €4750pm
March 20 €4500pm
March 23 €4250pm
March 25 €3750pm
March 27 €3250pm
March 31 €2999pm
April 03 €2750pm

Looks like a shoebox. The clearing price on that is likely around 2.5k at the moment that's around a 4 percent yield .

Idbatterim

HOLY ****! that place is even robbery at E2750 or whatever amount is being asked now!!!

JamesMason

lomb wrote: »

Looks like a shoebox. The clearing price on that is likely around 2.5k at the moment that's around a 4 percent yield .

That's one expensive Petri dish!

maestroamado

cnocbui wrote: »

By county, is wrong.

Here are the real numbers: http://databank.finance.gov.ie/FinDataBank.aspx?rep=TaxYrTrend

What this confirms for me is we have two much reliance on Multi-Nationals for our overall tax proportion take.
In the 10 years Corporation tax has increased by 150% and overall income tax tax increased by 50%.
We have to consider that a large proportion of our additional income tax is coming from the said Corporations.

My fear is if the Corporations do what Donald wants we be in a very bad spot.

Kinda different topic.
I also think we are too reliant on foreign produced food as all i am aware we produce in any great volume is meat and dairy.
I seen on the news last night the big ship bringing fruit and veg into Cork.
The correspondent said that the same ship be exporting our goods.
How the Harbour guy said it turn around in few hours to get the Noon tide.
I heard a lady in the supermarket the other day giving out no spuds in the supermarket.
We were always famous for potatoes and guinness.

I believe we should be producing more of our food, we want to produce expensive added value food and import the labour intensive food produce.
I think it be better if we were a little more food independent..

maestroamado

lomb wrote: »

Looks like a shoebox. The clearing price on that is likely around 2.5k at the moment that's around a 4 percent yield .

4% yield is crazy, there be lots of foreclosures if this becomes the norm.
I hope the cuckoo funds get caught with this one but i think it more likely be the taxpayer as Dublin Co Council rented a load of them for 20 years at very attractive rents i remember....

OwlsZat

maestroamado wrote: »

4% yield is crazy, there be lots of foreclosures if this becomes the norm.
I hope the cuckoo funds get caught with this one but i think it more likely be the taxpayer as Dublin Co Council rented a load of them for 20 years at very attractive rents i remember....

The councils bought tones of 2nd hand property at the top of the market. Wonder with a crash we will sell them off fire sale again, only to buy them back again at the next top. We really like saddling the tax payer.

Idbatterim

the shower of morons are capable of anything here! One thing is for sure, they love getting awful deals for the taxpayers, that big business benefits from :rolleyes:

you think they would do these deals, if it was their own personal finances on the line?

If the **** hits the fan again, there should be reverse nama. This time, it buys all the distressed properties, if a good fit for housing people here and picks up the bargains. Not give them away like you say OwlsZat, like with many of the nama property, give it away for a pittance and then buy it or similar back a few years later, at extortionate prices :rolleyes:

Ronaldinho

ittakestwo wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathmines/123-the-mews-observatory-lane-rathmines-dublin-2013481/

There was a 4 bed house in Rathmines put on Daft for 5000pm at the beginning of March. Its now at €2750 with multiple price drops over the last 3 weeks. With the pictures of towels on the bed I would presume an ex Airbnb. Shocking to think they thought they could get €5000pm for that townhouse. It does not even have a living room for that rent.

The rent has gone like this;

March 13 €5000pm
March 18 €4750pm
March 20 €4500pm
March 23 €4250pm
March 25 €3750pm
March 27 €3250pm
March 31 €2999pm
April 03 €2750pm

"This serviced property is best suited for 4 to 6 people, but may be possible to accommodate larger groups, depending on your preferred room layout which is flexible".

I counted 12?? beds there!!! Cheap split 12 ways. LOL

Griselda

its a bear pit out there.

Zenify

Saw a house go sale agreed today. Surprisingly, things are still selling. I'm going to keep a close eye on it and see it it goes through etc.

DB197840

Contracts signed on my house sale today, we have made a bit of profit and are mortgage approved for the next 6 months. Have been looking around walkinstown/perrystown to buy but prices are still quite high for what we are looking for and most need serious renovation. We are in the 400-500k range. Just wondering are we better off moving back to the parents for 2/3 months and then go searching again,would prices drop much or Estate agents be open to lower offers that soon? Both lucky to be in stable jobs and still working away at the moment. Thanks

dor843088

DB197840 wrote: »

Contracts signed on my house sale today, we have made a bit of profit and are mortgage approved for the next 6 months. Have been looking around walkinstown/perrystown to buy but prices are still quite high for what we are looking for and most need serious renovation. We are in the 400-500k range. Just wondering are we better off moving back to the parents for 2/3 months and then go searching again,would prices drop much or Estate agents be open to lower offers that soon? Both lucky to be in stable jobs and still working away at the moment. Thanks

How can you view houses if you have to stay at home ? I dont think estate agents are on the list of essential workers either. Looks like youv not got a lot of choice there bud.

Stark

They're doing "virtual viewings" at the moment. Personally I wouldn't buy a house based on a virtual viewing. Though I guess maybe people plan on going sale agreed based on the virtual viewing and hope they can do an actual survey before signing final contract/paying deposit?

DB197840

dor843088 wrote: »

How can you view houses if you have to stay at home ? I dont think estate agents are on the list of essential workers either. Looks like youv not got a lot of choice there bud.

I had viewed a good few before covid 19, few estate agents onto me regarding virtual viewings etc, obviously not going to buy a house just off a virtual viewing. Was just wondering about the ones I had viewed that are still for sale etc and agents have been into me. I will be definitely going back to the parents for a while anyway as my sale is nearly complete and wouldn’t be getting the price I got for my property in a few months time. I suppose I was just looking to see when people would think the agents would stop expecting the high prices on a majority of these properties

Steer55

DB197840 wrote: »

I suppose I was just looking to see when people would think the agents would stop expecting the high prices on a majority of these properties

Next Spring I reckon. This year is finished. :-(

Marius34

DB197840 wrote: »

I had viewed a good few before covid 19, few estate agents onto me regarding virtual viewings etc, obviously not going to buy a house just off a virtual viewing. Was just wondering about the ones I had viewed that are still for sale etc and agents have been into me. I will be definitely going back to the parents for a while anyway as my sale is nearly complete and wouldn’t be getting the price I got for my property in a few months time. I suppose I was just looking to see when people would think the agents would stop expecting the high prices on a majority of these properties

I would think this Summer will be a good time to negotiate 3-5% from the current price, with more option to choose and less biding wars. As long as multinationals corp. stays here, which I believe they will, although would need to follow news on this.
I don't believe in property crash with over 20%. Simply because there is lack of property, not many of empty new builds, relatively low number of residential construction, and in overall on a whole scale of a country, today Irish household has way less Loans, and much more in their accounts, than what it was in 2008.
In addition to that, for the people who won't loose their jobs, it is much easier to save initial deposit this year, than in any other year.

dor843088

Realistically no sale can go ahead until this thing is over even if you wanted to. How can you view , value , survey etc. It would be an utter nightmare. The property market is done until next year at least I'd say. Virtual viewings is a last gasp of despair from EAs. Futile.

jrosen

DB197840 wrote: »

Contracts signed on my house sale today, we have made a bit of profit and are mortgage approved for the next 6 months. Have been looking around walkinstown/perrystown to buy but prices are still quite high for what we are looking for and most need serious renovation. We are in the 400-500k range. Just wondering are we better off moving back to the parents for 2/3 months and then go searching again,would prices drop much or Estate agents be open to lower offers that soon? Both lucky to be in stable jobs and still working away at the moment. Thanks

I would take the sale and move back with parents until you find what you want. We were not interested in your search area but what I can say is, the areas we were looking at and wanted to buy in, the houses stopped going on the market(for years) and only started again when prices rose. I have 2 friends who bought when the market was lower and still paid mid 4's for houses that needed huge work.

pearcider

Marius34 wrote: »

I would think this Summer will be a good time to negotiate 3-5% from the current price, with more option to choose and less biding wars. As long as multinationals corp. stays here, which I believe they will, although would need to follow news on this.
I don't believe in property crash with over 20%. Simply because there is lack of property, not many of empty new builds, relatively low number of residential construction, and in overall on a whole scale of a country, today Irish household has way less Loans, and much more in their accounts, than what it was in 2008.
In addition to that, for the people who won't loose their jobs, it is much easier to save initial deposit this year, than in any other year.

I’m not sure the bit about household debt is actually true. From what I can see in 2019 we were the second most indebted household in Eurozone per capita and adjusted for GDP after the Netherlands who also have a huge property bubble especially in Amsterdam such that their central bank flagged it as the key systemic risk to their banks in 2019.

In comparison to Ireland, I think it’s not unfair to say Netherlands probably has a more stable banking system and certainly a more prudent government and broader tax base.

https://www.centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-household-debt-continues-to-decline-but-remains-fifth-highest-in-the-eu-23-october-2019

https://nltimes.nl/2019/10/15/housing-market-crash-major-risk-says-dutch-central-bank