The Belly wrote: » It took 3 years in the last financial crisis to reach the height of unemployment we are already past that in 3 weeks. It's hard to see a v curve recovery.
cnocbui wrote: » I'm in no doubt there will be a drop. I'm hopeful it wont last a decade like last time. We barely got back to a functioning market before this bolt from the blue happened.
cnocbui wrote: » Almost none of those commodities have much bearing on construction material costs. There is very little steel used in the construction of most domestic houses. There is some in the form of rebar used in the concrete foundations. The rest is stuff like nails, timber straps and switch boxes and the boiler. Lets say the weight of copper in house wiring is 2 Kg at current prices that's €8.75 worth. In a house with a 350K build cost, I don't care if copper falls 99% in price as it's going to make no difference I would notice. Same for steel. Now if the cost of sand, cement, timber and windows fell 25%, that might make a noticeable dent.
Rainmann wrote: » Unlikely to be the V recovery but I think something on our side is that the banks will be in a position to lend through this crisis. The banks were insolvent in 2008 and are well-capitalized now. Naturally, there will be fewer people in a position to buy due to unemployment, wage cuts and so on, but the demand side will not be completely wiped out like 2008. I think in Dublin, the reduction in prices will be less significant and the recovery will be quicker. Ultimately, it is quite early in the pandemic and a lot of it will come down to how long it goes on for.
BeansBeans wrote: » There's a hell of a lot of copper piping in a house as well as hot water cylinders
The Belly wrote: » Given the severity of the crisis i think the liquidity coming on stream wont be earmarked for inflating the markets again. For there to be a real recovery and a fast one it needs to find its way into the real economy.
pearcider wrote: » Functioning market you mean grossly over inflated market surely.
cnocbui wrote: » No, I mean a market where you can sell a house for what it cost to build.
pearcider wrote: » Doesn’t have much to do with it. It’s all about the availability and cost of credit.
pearcider wrote: » If it does find it’s way into the real economy you’ll be paying 10 euro for a loaf of bread. Careful what you wish for.
Pheonix10 wrote: » No I'm not an EA. But property prices will not fall even close to 50pc this time. 20pc at a maximum. You may have a different opinion on it.
cal naughton wrote: » Facebook are building a huge HQ in ballsbridge pure fantasy to think that they are not going to fill that building to the rafters with staff once it is built.
cd76 wrote: » Let's see. Facebook do zero Technical development in Ireland. All they do is marketing, sales and support work. As soon as that starts to drop then they will shelve plans.
fliball123 wrote: » The only problem with your argument is that you think there is somewhere in the world that our youth will go to. Last I checked Corona was a global event so unless the youth are jumping on a space shuttle and heading to Mars. Unlike the 80s there is as much opportunity here as anywhere else in the world Ireland is no longer a poor relation to England we have shown to be a leader in tech and pharma and in other areas of industry otherwise we would not of been importing people for the last decade into the country to work here
cal naughton wrote: » Marketing, sales and support work to 2.5billion active users and growing. Wishful thinking on your part that they will need less staff to support all those users. They also have cash reserves of 52 Billion dollars so this blip won't change their plans one bit.
ittakestwo wrote: » Under the Maastricht Treaty the ECB is obliged to keep inflation under 2%. If the ECB start to break this, it will inevitably lead to Germany leaving the Euro and the Euro falling apart. The recent printing of money by the ECB is to compensate to the fact they cant lower interest rates as they are already at zero. In the last recession in 2008 the ECB was able to cut the base rate from 4.25% to 0 to increase the money supply but that's not an option going into this recession as the base rate was already near zero. .
cd76 wrote: » I don't share your optimism. If we had the "brains" work here it would be different.
cd76 wrote: » I don't agree, Yes Corona is global but hopefully will be over(bar a second coming - hopefully not). The US tech companies here are largely for support functions; Google, Linkedin, Facebook doing marketing and support. They will "right size" their organisations. The most marketable people will emigrate as they did previously. Trump is going to insist the majority of the US multinationals repatriate businesses. If he wins in Nov then it will not be good for the MNCs in Ireland...especially the Pharmas.
cnocbui wrote: » Well it does because it's fundamental to availability. If you are aren't in a position to pay for a house to be built, it won't be built, will it? Availability = none.
The Belly wrote: » Starting from a very low base i just dont see that happening. How many loaves of bread can you eat?
pearcider wrote: » There’s plenty of availability I think there’s a quarter of a million empty dwellings in Ireland. When the credit bubble collapses the market will clear a lot of these.
cnocbui wrote: » So why all the noise over the last several years of a housing crisis in Dublin and the call for 35,000 new dwellings a year just to meet demand?
Logan Roy wrote: » I'm actually amazed how many economists there are on Boards. Is there somewhere I can go to read their work in depth or do they only post on here?
Assetbacked wrote: » Good news for renters, it's their market as a result of the covid19 crisis;https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/for-the-first-time-in-years-it-is-a-renter-s-market-1.4216892?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR2Er0Di3XmMyS7km7E341uu6U8LD2Fp0afOrQZavIiGoPvzy8oRqUdBtBM This article demonstrates how short term lets have been ripping the character out of prime neighbourhoods in Dublin such as Grand Canal Dock. The article mentions that tenants are now haggling with landlords for rentals, a sign of how the balance of power has shifted, even though we are only three weeks into the crisis which could last more than three months.
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