Property Market 2020

voluntary

cnocbui wrote: »

Say I'm a builder, and it costs me €300,000 to build a house, but you only willing to pay €200,000 for it. You reckon that's it's 'worth'; not €300,000?

If that's what you think, would you build any houses, if you were me?

When market contraction happens, builders normally stop building until their costs drop to a level where construction is profitable again OR until their product prices recover or a combination of both.

I doubt there will be many new developments starting in the next few months, but mind, large builders have fixed costs no matter if they work or not, if they already hire workers, they can as well use them to finish what's started and may then sell below the costs to cash out and hide). Keeping unsold stock is expensive and risky: insurance, potential damage, maintenance costs, etc. Nobody wants that.

Browney7

voluntary wrote: »

When market contraction happens, builders normally stop building until their costs drop to a level where construction is profitable again OR until their product prices recover or a combination of both.

I doubt there will be many new developments starting in the next few months, but mind, large builders have fixed costs no matter if they work or not, if they already hire workers, they can as well use them to finish what's started and may then sell below the costs to cash out and hide). Keeping unsold stock is expensive and risky: insurance, potential damage, maintenance costs, etc. Nobody wants that.

The tax payer will rent these properties via the HAP scheme as a renter of last resort to keep them sweet

nerrad01

cnocbui wrote: »

No it won't. If you stop transmission for longer than the time it takes for an infected person to get over it and become non-infections, then you wipe out the disease, as was done with the original SARS and Smallpox.

The real issue will be travel. People who have immunity can travel outside the country, but those who haven't can't, without a fast antibody test on return. Air travel will have to be restricted when we come out of lock-down. Those without some proof of antibody positivity will need an antibody test before being allowed in. More likely the EU will probably require the proof before boarding.

Covid is not going to be suddenly wiped out, you are delusional if you believe that. The big fear after a lockdown is a bounce back in terms of infection. Thats why slow phased easing of restrictions will be employed which is why this is not going away anytime soon. They dont even understand covid yet, so impossible to predict an antibody test being an panacea of who is infectious and who isnt. After this initial phase of infection there will still be a significant proportion of the population at risk.

Round Cable

ZX7R wrote: »

Swings and roundabouts
You're going to have everyone second guessing everyone.

No second guessing required, the Irish Times has stated the well known fact that our GDP is heavily distorted by large multinationals.

The OECD report says we will have the lowest impact based on GDP, a very unreliable metric for determining the impact on Ireland.

So this will likely have the same impact on Ireland as any other country in the world, we do not have any magic beans after all!

cnocbui

maestroamado wrote: »

I am curious about this, does the €300,000 include the site cost?

Also is housing estate or one-off stand alone. I do know that the cost and hassle of getting planning in the countryside is difficult.
I was talking to a guy the other day who said he spent 30,000 trying to get planning and eventually gave up.

I had a house built 15 years ago, i do not think i get much more out of it now than what i put i then.
I was thinking of moving this summer but that may be on hold now.
I know a few local guys who are in the building trade and most of them bought houses instead of self build.

I also was hoping to sell before this happened. I was anticipating asking about the replacement build cost of the house alone. A buyer would be getting the land, well, paving, shed, lawn, garden and driveway for free.

Those tradesmen are smart, they bought because it's cheaper than building. This is what the people who think the market is/was over priced and want houses to cost what they can afford don't seem to get, their idea of fair value is below the production cost. This is why building activity has been so low. If prices do fall, I doubt two out of the three prospects near me will go ahead.

One of the best things the government could do to get the economy going again after this is to reduce all the government charges and costs so they are no more than 5% of the project cost. Councils need to have their charges reigned in by legislation, the greedy bleeps got handed the huge windfall of property tax and they still want more. In the village near me, they were pulling up perfectly good concrete foot paths and replacing them with fancy brick paving. If they have the money to waste doing that, they have too much money.

Maitguel

GreeBo wrote: »

Nope, once they die thats another house on the market. Even if its a family member who moves in, thats one less person looking for a house so it still counts.

Unless the inheritance plans are to knock it down to make a field, it adds housing stock.

What if that OAP didn’t own the house to begin with? Could have been living with a family member, could have been under the state’s care, my point is that this cohort is not going to be enough to move the market. Plus has anyone had experience of the probable process? It takes years for anything to be done with the assets, that property being up for sale and sold in 12 months post death is very much best case scenario.

cnocbui

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Won't be happening

At least one kid in the UK killed himself because he heard a rumour that the mocks exam result was going to be used instead.

fliball123

CalRobert wrote: »

When the seller loses their job and can't pay the mortgage, they will be more inclined to seek offers, or the bank will simply take it and sell it to whoever offers the most.



Most sellers won't be in this boat, but enough will that it will affect prices.

You need to look at how many people got turfed out of their home when the last recession hit. Banks have not got the power to take the family home off someone even after years of not paying their mortgage. This argument is null and void Ireland is the safest country in the world to own your own house

Claw Hammer

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to look at how many people got turfed out of their home when the last recession hit. Banks have not got the power to take the family home off someone even after years of not paying their mortgage. This argument is null and void Ireland is the safest country in the world to own your own house

The banks can and do take houses from people. It might take time but they do it. Have a look at Bidx1. The majority of the properties offered are repossessions. The banks also pressure people to sell before going to court. It is a myth that repossession is impossible.

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks can and do take houses from people. It might take time but they do it. Have a look at Bidx1. The majority of the properties offered are repossessions. The banks also pressure people to sell before going to court. It is a myth that repossession is impossible.

Its not a myth as soon as they start playing hard ball the owner plays the poor me card and goes to the MABS or some other such agency and basically uses the its going to cost as much to house me and misses and my 5 dogs . All of a sudden the banks are forced to take what they can and it limps along like this I know about half a dozen people who this has happened to.

milhous

fliball123 wrote: »

Its not a myth as soon as they start playing hard ball the owner plays the poor me card and goes to the MABS or some other such agency and basically uses the its going to cost as much to house me and misses and my 5 dogs . All of a sudden the banks are forced to take what they can and it limps along like this I know about half a dozen people who this has happened to.

Housing you is the councils problem, not the banks. MABS only works if the debt can be realistically paid. Repossessions take a long time but they happen. As mentioned bidx1 for the contentious repossessions and most others just go to the market. Don't be silly

GreeBo

CalRobert wrote: »

When the seller loses their job and can't pay the mortgage, they will be more inclined to seek offers, or the bank will simply take it and sell it to whoever offers the most.



Most sellers won't be in this boat, but enough will that it will affect prices.

If I lost my job or couldnt pay my mortgage the absolute last thing I would be doing is selling my house.

Where would you suggest I live after selling my house?
If I cant afford a mortgage I cant afford rent.
If I cant afford my current mortgage and I'm unemployed, no bank is giving me a new mortgage.

Talk to your bank, but stay in your house!

GreeBo

Maitguel wrote: »

What if that OAP didn’t own the house to begin with? Could have been living with a family member, could have been under the state’s care, my point is that this cohort is not going to be enough to move the market. Plus has anyone had experience of the probable process? It takes years for anything to be done with the assets, that property being up for sale and sold in 12 months post death is very much best case scenario.

Doesnt matter who owned it, if someone moves out by dying, then there is now a house that a net new person can live in.

awec

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks can and do take houses from people. It might take time but they do it. Have a look at Bidx1. The majority of the properties offered are repossessions. The banks also pressure people to sell before going to court. It is a myth that repossession is impossible.

Banks can, and do repossess, of course this is the case. But it is incredibly difficult, and a very long, slow, drawn out process. They'll do it when there's no hope whatsoever that you're ever going to pay the mortgage. Years and years of arrears that have no hope of being cleared.

Even if you don't pay a single cent off your mortgage for an entire year, you're not going to lose your home. You can probably forget about getting any sort of loan or credit again for a long time, but you'll still have your home.

Go back on this forum 4 or 5 years and more, you will see it was a very common complaint about the lack of supply after the last crash. There was tonnes of complaints of the market becoming stuck, banks were hit with bad loans, repossessions weren't happening, new builds just were not being built, people were looking to buy but couldn't.

fliball123

milhous wrote: »

Housing you is the councils problem, not the banks. MABS only works if the debt can be realistically paid. Repossessions take a long time but they happen. As mentioned bidx1 for the contentious repossessions and most others just go to the market. Don't be silly

Yes but the bank cant just take the house away its just not that simple. Once mabs can come up with payment that is affordable by the client they more times than not have to accept it. There were very few houses repossessed and that was more due to the owners just giving up. Banks cant even harass now for none payment. It inevitably goes to the courts where they are more or less told if its the family house not to repossess and work out an affordable amount to repay. This is mainly due to the sob story of things like but poor Judy our 10 year old daughter is right beside her school or little Jimmy will no longer be able to do his ballet dancing which is down the road. This is how these always play out.

milhous

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes but the bank cant just take the house away its just not that simple. Once mabs can come up with payment that is affordable by the client they more times than not have to accept it. There were very few houses repossessed and that was more due to the owners just giving up. Banks cant even harass now for none payment. It inevitably goes to the courts where they are more or less told if its the family house not to repossess and work out an affordable amount to repay

If its possibly for the debtor to pay back then that will be looked at first (providing the debtor doesn't Bury their heads in the sand).It can take years to go through the courts but once an order is in place it can be repossessed whether it's a family home or not.

In saying that if the debtor even tries to pay then the County reg. Or judge will be hesitant to give an order. Its part of the reason for higher interest rates in this country, someone has to pay. If be in favour of a more streamlined process.

Claw Hammer

awec wrote: »

Banks can, and do repossess, of course this is the case. But it is incredibly difficult, and a very long, slow, drawn out process. They'll do it when there's no hope whatsoever that you're ever going to pay the mortgage. Years and years of arrears that have no hope of being cleared.

Even if you don't pay a single cent off your mortgage for an entire year, you're not going to lose your home. You can probably forget about getting any sort of loan or credit again for a long time, but you'll still have your home.

Go back on this forum 4 or 5 years and more, you will see it was a very common complaint about the lack of supply after the last crash. There was tonnes of complaints of the market becoming stuck, banks were hit with bad loans, repossessions weren't happening, new builds just were not being built, people were looking to buy but couldn't.

Look at courts.ie. Numerous repossession cases listed before county registrars all over the country. That is only the ones where there wasn't an agreed sale. Some people have gained they system and strung things out but all have had to do a deal or be put out eventually. A lot of people don't want the hassle of having court proceedings hanging over them for years.

awec

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Look at courts.ie. Numerous repossession cases listed before county registrars all over the country. That is only the ones where there wasn't an agreed sale. Some people have gained they system and strung things out but all have had to do a deal or be put out eventually. A lot of people don't want the hassle of having court proceedings hanging over them for years.

Yes, if you never pay again you will be repossessed. I think that's fairly obvious.

But you can go years into mortgage arrears and come out the other side no issues. As you said, you do a deal. Pay what you can, getting back to full payments as soon as you can. It's going to cost you interest over the term of the mortgage, but you're not going to lose your home.

There is no interest in widespread repossessions in Ireland. Housing is a zero sum game. Evicted people join the social housing list which is already too long, there is no appetite for that. As soon as they lose their home, the burden falls on the taxpayer.

fliball123

milhous wrote: »

If its possibly for the debtor to pay back then that will be looked at first (providing the debtor doesn't Bury their heads in the sand).It can take years to go through the courts but once an order is in place it can be repossessed whether it's a family home or not.

In saying that if the debtor even tries to pay then the County reg. Or judge will be hesitant to give an order. Its part of the reason for higher interest rates in this country, someone has to pay. If be in favour of a more streamlined process.

Even those who have burried their heads in the sand will eventually after years (I know one person who got away with this for 8 years) be compelled to attend court. I am telling you now once the owner of the property starts with the "my mam is around the corner and needs me as she is in bad health" or "I can not move as little Jimmy's school will be too far way" or the other one that I heard was and is being used more I cant move as its having a detrimental effect on my wife's mental well being. Once a persons well being is brought into it banks are scared stiff they got an absolute kicking over the tracker mortgage scandal due to this and people committing suicide that they would rather let the owner limp along paying what they can and the asset can be theirs once the the owner is dead or the owner can start paying more if they are working again.

Anyone thinking there will be a massive amount of property coming onto the market due to mortgage default is deluded if anything with the further protections put in place for corona it less likely now that a home owner will lose their house then back in the last recession.

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Look at courts.ie. Numerous repossession cases listed before county registrars all over the country. That is only the ones where there wasn't an agreed sale. Some people have gained they system and strung things out but all have had to do a deal or be put out eventually. A lot of people don't want the hassle of having court proceedings hanging over them for years.

If you had a family and knew you couldnt be kicked out for years what option would you go for using free family court aid and staying rent and mortgage free for years or give back the house and spin the wheel and see where you end up I think 99 out of 100 people will choose staying put and preferring the hassle of court instead of the uncertainty

fliball123

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Look at courts.ie. Numerous repossession cases listed before county registrars all over the country. That is only the ones where there wasn't an agreed sale. Some people have gained they system and strung things out but all have had to do a deal or be put out eventually. A lot of people don't want the hassle of having court proceedings hanging over them for years.

Once again alot of these where the owners giving up. The banks back in 2008 where relentless I know of one bank who was ringing and contacting the owner 4/5 times a day. They cant get away with this now

Neamhshuntasach

Summer2020 wrote: »

Interesting how you’ve been contacted by “numerous estate agents asking if you want to throw in a number”.
I’ve been contacted by none, despite viewing upwards of 20 houses in the last 3 months and placing bids on or above asking on at least 5. I find your posts very suspect to say the least, you’ve clearly got a vested interest in all this.

Exact same for me. In the past year I've viewed in excess of 30 houses i reckon. And bid on 5 only for each to go way over asking with a lot of work to be done so we bowed out. I haven't had one call yet from an agent yet. So presumably the buyers are still proceeding.

And on the house i am selling. I had the buyer pull out right before we signed contracts due to both himself and wife losing their job. Understandable in their case that they didn't want to even renegotiate which i would have been prepared to do. Anyways I had 4 under-bidders and each one is still interested and bidding back up towards what we were sale agreed on.

I can see house prices falling but no where near the 20-30% being floated about by some people. I'm in no rush to sell. I'd take 5% off previous sale agreed price. But if 20% was what people were expecting across the board. I simply won't sell unless i seen house prices in excess of 400K also fall and i can at least even things out on the other end. If not, i'd be one example of adding to less houses going on the market.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

If you had a family and knew you couldnt be kicked out for years what option would you go for using free family court aid and staying rent and mortgage free for years or give back the house and spin the wheel and see where you end up I think 99 out of 100 people will choose staying put and preferring the hassle of court instead of the uncertainty

You wouldn't live rent or mortgage free for years. You'd get away with that for a while, but eventually you'd need to start paying something.

While you may not pay the mortgage off during the agreed lifetime, you would have to show that you're going to be able to pay it off in a reasonable time.

The people most at risk are those whose mortgage payment is a large percentage of their income. Especially so if their pay is cut and it has no prospect of returning to previous levels. I think, with the new lending rules, these people are few and far between.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

You wouldn't live rent or mortgage free for years. You'd get away with that for a while, but eventually you'd need to start paying something.

While you may not pay the mortgage off during the agreed lifetime, you would have to show that you're going to be able to pay it off in a reasonable time.

The people most at risk are those whose mortgage payment is a large percentage of their income. Especially so if their pay is cut and it has no prospect of returning to previous levels.

While the court proceedings are going on they will live there. Once the sad stories of mental well being and little jimmy being beside his school or his mammy Phyllis in bad health and around the corner..No court will kick them out. They will be told to pay what they can and the banks have to suck it up, as I say I have known a few people doing it and only one gave up the fight and lost their house but they could of fought on for longer. The others after the recession some got jobs and started repaying at the original rate, one just paying the interest and 2 I know have not worked since the last crash and they are paying a pittance towards the mortgage. You only have to look at this boards thread back about 6/7 years ago to see what people can get away with in court

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2057082551&page=3

milhous

fliball123 wrote: »

While the court proceedings are going on they will live there. Once the sad stories of mental well being and little jimmy being beside his school or his mammy Phyllis in bad health and around the corner..No court will kick them out. They will be told to pay what they can and the banks have to suck it up.

That is not true. I work in this field. It may go on a while, but the bank just mounts the info. Until an order is inevitable. No effort and the order will be made.... Eventually.

awec

I think you'd want to be seen to be making the effort to pay as much as you can. Deliberately not paying when in a position to pay something would surely count against you eventually.

Claw Hammer

It it is very early days yet. There are so many variables which will all have some impact to a greater or lesser extent.
1. Will the vulture funds continue to be players in the market.?

2. What is going to happen in the third level colleges in the coming academic year? Are there going to be dropouts due to students having no summer work? Are foreign students going to come? Our domestic students going to start college in the same numbers?

3. It is going to be emigration? By Irish nationals moving abroad or by foreign nationals here returning home or moving abroad elsewhere?

4. What sort of condition will the banks in Ireland be in in a few months time?

5. What will the labour market be like in a few months time?

6. Will the government continue borrowing or will it attempt to increase taxation to clawback the money paid out during the crisis?

7. Will there be fire sales by buy to let investors?


These are just some of the unknowns which will impact on the property market over the next 12 months. How anybody can come up with percentages given these variables I do not know.

fliball123

milhous wrote: »

That is not true. I work in this field. It may go on a while, but the bank just mounts the info. Until an order is inevitable. No effort and the order will be made.... Eventually.

Not when there is an issue of the persons well being I am telling you now look at the link I put up for what people can get away with
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2057082551&page=3

sweetie

Some of the posts in here remind me of my old Grandad RIP. When I was a chiseler he used to say to me 'You'd contradict god almighty, you'd say black was white and white no colour at all!'

Donald Trump

Claw Hammer wrote: »

2. What is going to happen in the third level colleges in the coming academic year? Are there going to be dropouts due to students having no summer work? Are foreign students going to come? Our domestic students going to start college in the same numbers?

It is not inconceivable that courses would continue as online for the first semester next year at least.

That would be a lot of students staying at home with their parents rather than renting in Dublin or wherever