CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Mwengwe wrote: »

You know there are some epidemiologists who've contracted it? No matter how many precautions you take you can still 'get it'.

Yeah I get that. It’s very risky but when you’re the leader of a nation and you’re going around shaking hands and speaking if herd immunity etc before the panic kicks in you look like a total fool!!!

First of all sympathies to the families of those who have passed away. However I think these are very positive numbers and give good reason to hope the end is in sight. If the HSE are giving mid April as peak I think we’ll see a slight relaxation of restrictions the first week in May but not before the bank holiday. Schools will stay closed but I think there might be a push for primary schools to open after the June weekend. That’s what 3 weeks before they close anyway? See how things are going for those few weeks and let them off again for July and August. Movement in and out of Ireland could be restricted but I really do think things will be getting someway back to normal by mid June.

Mr.S wrote: »

Haven't we curtailed testing due to lack of equipment though, so the low % increase is to be expected.

No?

We don't know. I have no idea why they can't release along with the number of cases how many tests that figure is calculated from. There is no data protection stuff preventing this and yet we never get that number until someone decides to at random point, fill us in a cumlative number to date. It leads to wild speculation over reasons for the numbers being up or down which could be avoided.

blackcard wrote: »

Thanks for the charts, it shows the forecast of what may happen. I would just query the projected amount of deaths. The last 2 days have seen 14 and 10 deaths yet you are projecting 3 deaths per day going forward?

Nursing home deaths caused yesterdays spike.

blackcard wrote: »

Thanks for the charts, it shows the forecast of what may happen. I would just query the projected amount of deaths. The last 2 days have seen 14 and 10 deaths yet you are projecting 3 deaths per day going forward?

Hi Blackcard

l the number is in the top left, i picked 1% as it's about where S.Korea is at with high testing, it might be as high as 3% time will tell
numbers from Italy and Spain are distorted as they can't test everyone. I up date with the daily numbers in Bold each day.
it could be higher but it's very hard to tell as the start of an outbrake

Regards

Coyote

Dana Mealy Tyrant wrote: »

Several of the test centres closed without notice today because they ran out of kits. This will impact reported new cases in a few days. We cannot look at new case numbers as indicative of anything when testing is chopping and changing criteria, or suddenly put on hold. If testing criteria and capacity isn't consistent, then patterns in the cases reported are not meaningful.

Source???

owlbethere wrote: »

On the other hand, we see what's happening in mainland Europe and beyond. What makes you think Ireland is going to be so special. So many people here are holding tight, hoping and praying that this doesn't explode. We're all hoping to see some sort of light at the end of the tunnel.

It is sort of being actively discussed here.

You could argue that the more optimistic (or less pessimistic) among us are desperately looking for hope in data - numbers that we might look back on as being worthless.

But, right now, the data is probably all that we can go on. And right now, there appear to be some reasons to be optimistic. Particuiarly relative to other countries.

It is possible for Ireland to be more like South Korea / Japan if we get this response right. We don't have to be like UK / USA. I specifically referred to the UK and US as their situations are still very much developing but there is mounting evidence to suggest that they entirely botched their response.

cameramonkey wrote: »

Why dont they publish the exact amount that have been tested and the amount of test that have been processed to date? This would give us an idea of the if the amount per day has increased significantly. I don't see why if they have nothing to hide that they don't do this.

Because it is a continuous service that is running 24/7.
Some labs might get through 300 samples a day one day and 400 the next depending on staff levels, number of tests coming in, reagents available etc. It's not a fixed throughput, and more labs may be coming on stream or offering a limited service until all their staff are trained to run it.

cameramonkey wrote: »

Well that would be much better , where did you get the figure for 33,000? It would be an improvement but nowhere near the 5000 they are claiming per day. Have you a link to the 33,000 figure.

I got it from Coyote:

Coyote wrote: »

from Irish Times

he HSE disclosed that 15,500 people are waiting to be tested for Covid-19 since the Government changed the criteria for testing to people displaying two symptoms of the infection.

Among those waiting for a test 10,700 have an appointment and 4,800 are awaiting a test. There are 5,000 tests being carried out every day.

More than 33,000 people have been tested since March 16th.

The HSE has 46 testing centres in operation and a further six will come on stream next week. Up to 60,000 testing kits have been delivered and a further 100,000 will be delivered each week.

blackcard wrote: »

Fair enough but there was another 10 deaths today and supposedly clusters in a number of nursing homes

Average age today is 77 and 6 east 3 northwest (where would that be? Donegal I guess would Connacht not just be west?) And 1 south.

Some of those east are probably more nursing home residents again. Possibly a younger person aswell to reduce the average.

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

How can it possibly be contained in sh*tholes like India and African countries? People live on top of each other, is there even any point in introducing measures?

Ah FFS cop onto yourself.

''****holes like India and African countries''.
I bet your only experience of the world is what you've seen on those exploitative Concern ads.

And yes there absolutely is a point in introducing measures to reduce the spread of this virus. Get out of your ma's boxroom and learn something.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1244305935897681926

506 cases so far associated with HCW.

FullOf..IT wrote: »

Source???

Testing in Cork and Dublin was suspended over lack of kits

It was reported by local radio news, I'm sure maybe the newspaper sites also have it

Sorry don't have a specific link