CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

It's unknown where the Spanish flu first started https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Besides that was a different time back then, it occurred during WW1

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

China wants to be seen as capable, advanced and in possession of the political system most suitable to handle the emergency, say China experts.

President Donald Trump does not want to be seen as responsible for the virus as it further grips the US, where there are 75,000 cases and over 1000 deaths so far, outpacing China in the number of infections. The Trump White House is adamant that any lasting blame should fall squarely on Beijing.

This battle for perceptions within the war against the virus exposes the anxiety of the great competition between China and the US in our time. A decisive winner could help convince the world of their political system’s superiority in the years to come.

President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan, the coronavirus epicenter, for the first time since the outbreak began there. It's a sign of Chinese confidence that the tide is turning.

For a White House consumed with messaging and public perception (and no stranger to disinformation itself), the idea that a pathogen with origins in China could tank the US economy and sap confidence is not something that would go uncontested.

While trying to ensure blame for the crisis flowed away from Washington and towards Beijing, Trump insisted coronavirus was the “Chinese virus”, whipping up anger against Asians and Americans who have Asian backgrounds.

A meeting of G7 foreign ministers on Wednesday ended without a joint statement after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pushed unsuccessfully to get member nations to agree to call coronavirus “Wuhan virus”.

The Trump administration is now reportedly considering forcing Chinese journalists it suspects of spying to leave the US.

Beijing has dialled up the volume and variety of messaging on coronavirus through diplomatic channels, state media and social media for weeks, to deflect blame for the outbreak and to try to position itself in the world’s eyes as the competent, generous problem-solver.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the Group of Seven members were all aware of China's "disinformation campaign" regarding the coronavirus outbreak.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the Group of Seven members were all aware of China's "disinformation campaign" regarding the coronavirus outbreak.Credit:AP

"The Chinese Communist Party is waging a propaganda campaign to desperately try to shift responsibility for the global COVID-19 pandemic to the United States," said a US Embassy spokesperson. "This campaign began when we started to call out the risk that was created not only for the Chinese people, but for people all across the world."

Images of Chinese aid have circulated widely on China’s Western-facing media and social networks. State media has leaned heavily into the idea that COVID-19 didn’t necessarily begin in China, and that democracies were incapable of meeting the challenge from it.

BrianD3 wrote: »

I was thinking along similar lines. Let's say there are some late stage COPD patients who, if Covid19 didn't exist, are "destined" to die by September 2020 at the latest and Covid19 kils them in March instead - what is the significance of that from a public health and life expectancy point of view and how should this inform public policy. Regardless of the significance, obviously the deaths are tragic for the families and individuals involved.

We keep hearing about people having underlying conditions. There is a massive difference between someone with late stage terminal cancer, COPD, ALS, MS etc. and someone with controlled hypertension - yet all are underlying conditions.

Stats on all cause mortality would tell a lot. I would like to see historical stats for Lombardy or some of the worst affected cities there e.g. Bergamo. I have looked online and not found anything, the language barrier doesn't help. We know that, on average ~1700 people die per day in Italy. Lombardy population is about 18% of Italy's population so the average for Lombardy would seem to be ~310 per day. Based on media reports, over 500 people have died from (or with?) Covid19 in Lombardy on many days during this crisis so all cause mortality has clearly been way higher than the average of 310. The question that would then be asked is, has there been major spikes in all cause mortality in other years in Lombardy and an uneven distribution of deaths throughout the year.

It could be the case that the age profile (with age associated underlying illnesses) of the region plus population density plus air pollution means that any contagious respiratory illness hits it hard. Were there a considerable number of deaths in other year also but spread over a longer time period due to less infectivity and a flatter curve that the health system was better able to deal with. Etc.

wellwhynot wrote: »

According to RTE they just did say that at their news conference

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Wishful thinking..

Cause governments regularly crash world economies for an aggressive flu...
also you are forgetting the long term lung and organ damage this bug does.
The true death rate for this bug over the longer term has yet to be seen.

timmy_mallet wrote: »

I think the point is the March dead wont be dying in September or October.