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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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Comments

  • #8522
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    YFlyer wrote: »
    Did the US give out free supplies for the Spanish Flu?

    It's unknown where the Spanish flu first started https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    Besides that was a different time back then, it occurred during WW1


  • #8523
    shocksy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,610 ✭✭✭shocksy


    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1244212010163802112?s=19


  • #8524
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Hobgoblin11 wrote: »
    Millions and millions of PPE winging their way to us all as we speak!

    Lets hope it works

    https://twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1243992460839321600


  • #8525
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,087 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Thank you. Though it does go to show how official information can be tweaked enough away from the facts and most will believe it. In this case the HSE and other health agencies doing so to stop muppets stockpiling and protecting the very real need to have enough reserves of PPE for front line health workers.

    Yes, their motive for telling porkies is sound, however, it's also not good to be pushing that line, when they know better, which might stop people like me who happen to have a cartridge respirator mask to hand and others, from protecting themselves, which of course would not affect available supply.

    A large detriment to the supply of masks in the west appears to be a global effort by the Chinese government, operating through fronts, to buy up PPE supplies on an industrial scale and ship them back to China. They were doing this back in January and I have suspicions that in the future, when authorities and journalists have the time to through export records, they will find this happened on a prodigious scale: https://www.smh.com.au/national/second-developer-flies-82-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-to-china-20200326-p54e8n.html

    China-hose-masks-from-Oz.jpg

    And why is a company in Limerick sending presumably millions of masks a week to China, the middle east and elsewhere, while a plane has been sent to China to bring back possibly even the same product, though I suspect they would keep the good stuff and be sending us seconds, at a price.

    https://www.irema.com/products/face-masks/respirator-face-masks-flat-fold/


  • #8526
    citysights
    Closed Accounts Posts: 288 ✭✭citysights


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Lets hope it works

    https://twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1243992460839321600

    That’s dreadful.


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  • #8527
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
    His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
    When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
    He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
    I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

    My well turn out to be true. However it needs to be acknowledged that the playing field is completely different. Massive short term social re-engineering and investment to increase NHS capacity was not there in the previous year.

    Sweden might be in a better position to compare like with like.


  • #8528
    walshb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 58,610 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    Wibbs wrote: »
    I strongly suspect the NCTS company and the RSA were digging in their heels about it being a vital service, if nothing else to protect their income(like the construction companies), but the government stepped in and told them to shut down.

    But surely there are legal and insurance areas that could deem NCT testing very essential?

    It’s an offence to be driving a car without a valid NCT certificate..


  • #8529
    wellwhynot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 280 ✭✭wellwhynot


    HSE said we have 2100 acute beds and 167 critical beds.

    I assume critical is ICU? Can anyone confirm? If so, that number is tiny. We were told a higher number a few weeks ago.


  • #8530
    Bob24
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    blackcard wrote: »
    Is this what is ahead of us?⁰

    If the pandemic remains widespread for another few months, I’d say we’ll all be wearing masks.

    Supply chains for masks will have time to ramp up and we’ll have plenty of supply.

    And you will notice that the only health authorities advising against the general public wearing masks are the ones for countries where supply is not sufficient. All countries with enough supply are recommending widespread use. So if the situation drags in time our own health authorities will eventually give that advice once we have supplicient supply.


  • #8531
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Just Saying wrote: »
    The object of this is to make people stay at home.The aim is to reduce community transmissions dramatically.If this is the case the vast majority of new cases will be household transmissions reducing the need for contact tracing.

    Outside of the most obvious reasons for leaving your home such as necessary work,shopping etc the only real discretionary reason is exercise.This has been curtailed to a radius of 2km from your home.The reasoning behind this is to make it more difficult for people to visit other households and claim they were exercising if questioned.

    I am stunned at the number of Me Me Me people on this thread who state the they will ignore this part of the requirement as they cant be spreading the virus if they go for their normal run. They are either unable or unwilling to realise the reasoning behind the 2km rule which is as outlined.

    They are exactly the same mentality as those people who failed to adhere to social distancing...they don't want to realise that the rule is there for a reason.

    What they dont understand is that this is not yet a total lockdown.Their desire to go for lengthy runs will mean that the Govt. might have to play their final card which will result in virtually no exercise at all being permitted.If this happens we will know who to blame.

    If the government can prove that that a lone jogger/cyclist causes community transmission then go ahead, but while people are still mauling the same packet of easy singles in Tesco as the next person, its absurd to restrict that.


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  • #8532
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    507457.jpg


  • #8533
    Nonoperational
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭Nonoperational


    wellwhynot wrote: »
    HSE said we have 2100 acute beds and 167 critical beds.

    I assume critical is ICU? Can anyone confirm? If so, that number is tiny. We were told a higher number a few weeks ago.

    We have over 500 ICU beds with the addition of private hospitals and can ventilate many more in areas outside of ICU if necessary.


  • #8534
    Hobgoblin11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Lets hope it works

    https://twitter.com/adrianzenz/status/1243992460839321600

    bargain basement stuff!

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • #8535
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    niallo27 wrote: »
    507457.jpg

    Okay, i generally disagree with your take, and i find the graphs useful, but that is funny :)


  • #8536
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Gynoid wrote: »
    Okay, i generally disagree with your take, and i find the graphs useful, but that is funny :)

    All models are wrong, but some are useful.... (and this one is correct)


  • #8537
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    walshb wrote: »
    But surely there are legal and insurance areas that could deem NCT testing very essential?

    It’s an offence to be driving a car without a valid NCT certificate..

    Yes, but this is a global pandemic situation - everything has changed. If you were an NCT tester would you be willing to risk the health of you and your family by sitting in stranger's cars all day? If you had to get your NCT done, would you still go and have a stranger drive your car and operate the same controls you will have to use to get home?

    For health reasons, it had to be cancelled - all other reasons can be worked out later - serious health complications or death can not.


  • #8538
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Recoveries have hit 150,000


  • #8539
    degsie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,762 ✭✭✭degsie


    Remember folks, you are not responsible for your own health anymore, you are responsible for EVERYBODY's health!


  • #8540
    alan partridge aha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Why are we soooooo slow at showing recovery figures?


  • #8541
    Doc07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭Doc07


    wellwhynot wrote: »
    HSE said we have 2100 acute beds and 167 critical beds.

    I assume critical is ICU? Can anyone confirm? If so, that number is tiny. We were told a higher number a few weeks ago.

    HSE didn’t say that.


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  • #8542
    Marsden35
    Site Banned Posts: 93 ✭✭Marsden35


    As things stand, the two countries doing the best seem to be Israel and Australia, with an honourable mention to the Czech Republic and Austria to some extent.

    Still early days and some countries are behind others on the curve.


  • #8543
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    alan partridge aha wrote: »
    Why are we soooooo slow at showing recovery figures?

    Because at the moment our figures are so low that it is minimal and would not read as good news. It takes time to recover and we are only getting started.


  • #8544
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    alan partridge aha wrote: »
    Why are we soooooo slow at showing recovery figures?

    We have to wait for recoveries before we can show figures for them.


  • #8545
    Gooey Looey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭Gooey Looey


    alan partridge aha wrote: »
    Why are we soooooo slow at showing recovery figures?

    Do you know who's recovered if you're busy concentrating on the influx of sick patients


  • #8546
    alan partridge aha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    Because at the moment our figures are so low that it is minimal and would not read as good news. It takes time to recover and we are only getting started.

    Dont bother with the 5 so.


  • #8547
    flashforward
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 325 ✭✭flashforward


    Some key questions are being consistently missed at these briefings.

    HSE briefing today states that they are doing 5000 swabs/day
    **How many lab results are they getting a day?**

    We have 500 ICU beds and will secure/convert more
    **Do we have the staffing to man these beds?**

    No point in pressing swabs if we cant convert to results
    No point in adding beds if we dont have the trained personnel to operate the equipment.


  • #8548
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    It's unknown where the Spanish flu first started https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    Besides that was a different time back then, it occurred during WW1

    One theory is it originated from a pig farm in Kansas. It’s not as different as you think in terms of disease control and movement of people. In fact now people are more freely able to move.

    Obviously things like sanitation is better in developed countries but in developing countries it is still the same conditions as it was then, if not even worse due to more people


  • #8549
    alan partridge aha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭alan partridge aha


    Gooey Looey wrote: »
    Do you know who's recovered if you're busy concentrating on the influx of sick patients

    Other countries seem able to and Dr Holohan said figures would be updated in the next few days and that's almost a week ago.


  • #8550
    BrianD3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,779 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
    His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
    When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
    He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
    I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.
    I was thinking along similar lines. Let's say there are some late stage COPD patients who, if Covid19 didn't exist, are "destined" to die by September 2020 at the latest and Covid19 kils them in March instead - what is the significance of that from a public health and life expectancy point of view and how should this inform public policy. Regardless of the significance, obviously the deaths are tragic for the families and individuals involved.

    What happens to those who were destined to die in 2021 - are those deaths also brought forward or would some form of herd immunity reduce that.

    We keep hearing about people having underlying conditions. There is a massive difference between someone with late stage terminal cancer, COPD, ALS, MS etc. and someone with controlled hypertension - yet all are underlying conditions.

    Stats on all cause mortality would tell a lot. I would like to see historical stats for Lombardy or some of the worst affected cities there e.g. Bergamo. I have looked online and not found anything, the language barrier doesn't help. We know that, on average ~1700 people die per day in Italy. Lombardy population is about 18% of Italy's population so the average for Lombardy would seem to be ~310 per day. Based on media reports, over 500 people have died from (or with?) Covid19 in Lombardy on many days during this crisis so all cause mortality has clearly been way higher than the average of 310. The question that would then be asked is, has there been major spikes in all cause mortality in other years in Lombardy and an uneven distribution of deaths throughout the year.

    It could be the case that the age profile (with age associated underlying illnesses) of the region plus population density plus air pollution means that any contagious respiratory illness hits it hard. Were there a considerable number of deaths in other year also but spread over a longer time period due to less infectivity and a flatter curve that the health system was better able to deal with. Etc.


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  • #8551
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Klonker wrote: »
    Of course masks help, they're not 100%, not even close but they'll lower the chances of you catching thr virus or spreading it.

    Saying that, I haven't even looked to buy any, I'd love if the country had enough for everyone to use but we don't. They should be prioritised for workers in healthcare, shops, pharmacies etc., not for people to go out and walk their dog.

    I'd like to see the government put in place some production facilities within Ireland for such products, I'm not sure if they've looked to do so yet, I know some distillers are helping HSE with sanitiser production.

    It is not an "of course"]

    Many people believe official guidelines that they don't help and are in fact dangerous. This is just plain wrong.

    Exactly my point and well put. We need to reorientate our society to deal with the threat. Much in the same way countries do in times of war. We were told rent controls were "unconstitutional". Has the constitution changed?

    If there are not enough masks. Lets make them If reusable ones aren't cost effective make reusable ones with filters.

    If there are not enough machines to process test results. Get them. Or repurpose ones already in the state.


This discussion has been closed.
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