CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

This thread is moving so fast, I went for a shower for 15 minutes and came back to over 100 new posts! :eek:

JRant wrote: »

A couple of pubs full of Yahoo's does not a country make.

should use their own common sense and kept going about their business as carefully as possible.

sink wrote: »

I see a lot of criticism of Governments not closing down flights or shutting borders, and using common sense that would seem logical. However when you examine the problem using epidemiological mathematical modelling it will show that closing borders has a limited effect in the basic reproduction number of infection (aka R0), which is really the only factor we are trying to control. By lowering the R0 we give our health service the time to treat patients without being overwhelmed and therefore increase the survivability rate and have better outcomes for patients overall, this we all know by now is termed 'flattening the curve'.

So why don't borders work? To start with borders can not be perfectly sealed, unless we want to become an even more totalitarian state than North Korea some people will cross them. One example is we need to import many essential goods and raw material such as oil in order to keep society functioning and this has to be done by people. With the profile of this disease it is impossible to properly screen for it as many are infected are asymptomatic. So cutting off contact from the outside world entirely is impossible even in the short term.

Once the virus is in the community it doubles infections every 3-4 days in populations where no internal controls are in place. This is what is known as exponential growth, simply put the more infected there are the faster new people get infected. Uncontrolled spread within the community with quickly outpace the number of infected coming from outside the community, even if you pack every jet and ferry with 100% infected people, left uncontrolled the community transmissions would dwarf them in a matter of weeks even if started with just one infected person.

So we need to focus on slowing the spread within the community, and the only method we have to do this is social distancing. Social distancing techniques work for those people arriving into the country as well, following proper guidelines they won't infect more people than anyone else already in the community. Jets and ferries should limit their capacities so people are kept a safe distance, exceptions can be made for family units of course.

The Washington Post have an excellent article which show these epidemiological models working in real time, I highly recommend looking at it to get a better understanding of what I'm talking about.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Stheno wrote: »

Is anyone else a bit scared?

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Perfect opportunity to significantly roll back the EU and cut funding from us to Eastern European proto-fascists. In particular, I doubt Italy will be all that fond of the EU afterwards.

derossi wrote: »

I have had a cough and cold symptoms since last week. I work for the emergency services, I have been told to take the next two weeks off work.

dan786 wrote: »

According to a Government statement, the exceptional measures required to encourage social distancing will have an immediate impact on many employers. Although these measures are temporary they have, and will lead, to temporary business closures.

The statement says there is an important role for employers in helping the country to respond.

Following discussions with some industry groups today the Government is asking employers, if at all possible, to continue to pay workers during this period - at least at the jobseeker rate of €203 per week.

This refund, the statement continues, means that workers will retain their link with employers and there is no need for them personally to submit a job seekers claim.

The refund scheme will take some time to set up but in the meantime the Banks have been requested to provide working capital finance in the form of overdrafts or short term loans to cover costs.