CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) Read OP

devnull · 15-03-2020 10:48AM

UK Situation looks grim.

Just been watching Sky News where Chaand Nagpaul, the British Medical Association Council Chair has been speaking and he looks and sounds really worried. Clearly has no confidence in the government and was quite damning.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1239123137213673473
The Tories have run down the NHS in the last decade which leaves the UK in a position to not be able to support as many people as they should should. They are now being exposed for that. I know they recently said they would invest a lot more money in it, but it's too little too late.

They should have been buying up ventilators weeks or months ago, but they waited because they were being Conservatives, now everyone wants them. They're reactive rather than proactive and have been this whole time, they are well behind the curve and their mismanagement of this situation will cost many lives.

Gentleman Off The Pitch · 15-03-2020 10:48AM

Gynoid wrote: »

Not meaning to cause outrrage or argument or anything but just looking a bit objectively at the figures...it is the people over 50 who die in MUCH greater numbers. Over 50 = 0.5%, over 60 = 3 %, over 70 = 10% and growing after that to very high amounts.
This is the cohort very much in a higher risk category. That does not mean younger people won't be very sick, it might be so, I do not know.
There are also the immuno compromised who should be regarded as similar to the over 50's and older cohort.
Here we have closed schools, going for isolation of the vectors. This does not protect the most vulnerable groups - that depends on people themselves to be protecting the older demographic and the immuno-compromised. That is not dependable.
In the UK they are talking seriously now of isolating the group with the highest mortality rate. (In weeks, I don't know why...immediately would be the answer.)
If we restricted movement of the at risk groups and helped them out with food deliveries, shopping, meds etc, plus online connection via face time etc, then the virus would spread through the population that could weather it and it MIGHT build enough immunity so that at risk groups would not be meeting it every time they left their homes in a few months.
It would mean the economy could continue at least somewhat, and social welfare provision would be more affordable than a complete shutdown.

I don't know. Anyone else think this might work? Thought? I am happy to be contradicted, though it would not be pleasant to be called some sort of a monster (thanks).

Unfortunately, death rates are only (a very big) part of picture

Spanish Eyes · 15-03-2020 10:49AM

Be great if social media like FB etc. could be shut down for a fortnight or something. Radio and TV the only sources of verified information. I know it can't/won't be done, but honestly this type of stuff is frightening people.

We are preparing for a shut down in our house, but hoping for the best. What will be will be.

Eric Cartman · 15-03-2020 10:50AM

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting how different pubs react differently.

Grogan’s in Dublin announced on their Facebook page that they are closing: [url] https://www.facebook.com/groganscastlelounge/photos/a.1066004896785129/2916181428434124/?type=3[/url]

Grogans is a class spot.

Does anyone have a list of the ‘bad’ pubs staying open especially late, my local shut up at 11 and had no music on , quite the change

JMNolan · 15-03-2020 10:50AM

Ger Roe wrote: »

In the grand scheme of things at the moment, the children's rhyme sticks and stones comes to mind. There are bigger issues to argue then whether our entire nationality has been libeled on an internet forum.

I actually think it does matter. If there is an attitude that we are too stupid to self police then the eventual lockdown will be more authoritarian than necessary whereas if there is the belief that we are a responsible caring society then the lock down can go a lot smoother for people, especially the vulnerable.

Galwayguy35 · 15-03-2020 10:50AM

JMNolan wrote: »

I don't get why people on this thread are saying we're all too dumb to self isolate? What you saw in Templebar was only a tiny tiny minority of people. The vast majority of the Irish population understand precisely how serious the situation is, we're not thick.

Not too sure about that, I reckon lots of pubs in the 4 large cities were packed last night but no videos were taken to show what was happening,

ZX7R · 15-03-2020 10:50AM

Ger Roe wrote: »

Yes, but some one person had to be first.

And look how many got infected from them,
one person infected Italy look what happened.
IF One person infected last night in a pub how many today...,..

Gynoid · 15-03-2020 10:50AM

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Remember one of the reasons they die in greater numbers because they're not even being treated. The doctors have to pick who gets each ICU bed and younger people get chosen. If the numbers keep rising not all the young people get beds.

Younger people also fight longer, ie they take longer to die. The deaths in younger people will rise.

We need to get the numbers down through a lockdown then probably/possibly move to a controlled version of the UK as phase 2.

I think (think now not know) that the numbers were the same before surge that has caused over whelming of ICUs in China and Italy - ie much higher death rate over 50, increasing a lot per decade.

If it was found that younger people die in increasing numbers then all that idea is totally out the window of course.

Yes, maybe lockdown first to control immediately, followed by community-supported isolation of older and immuno-compromised.

Funsterdelux · 15-03-2020 10:51AM

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

My cousin is living in Northern Italy.
She can go for a walk alone or with one other. They’re not allowed to be too close to eachother or holding hands and they’re not allowed to congregate. Same follows if you meet other people on your walk , you’re not supposed to stop for a big chat. Going for a walk is no issue over there as long as it’s alone or with one other and not standing around or sitting on a bench.

Handmaids tale comes to mind

JDD · 15-03-2020 10:51AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Herd immunisation isn't a thing without vaccination.

Surely if someone catches it and then recovers, they are “immune”? What a vaccine does artificially?

I’m in two minds about the UK policy. There are 6m asthma sufferers in the uk. Would they all have to isolate too? Presumably so. And their families. So that would add up to 8/9 million I would guess. Another 6m approx are over 70. That’s a quarter of their population having to isolate, and that’s before you count other vulnerable categories which would probably add up to a few more million. That simply won’t work for herd immunity.

ChikiChiki · 15-03-2020 10:51AM

kingshankly wrote: »

I despise FG but I honestly think the government have been on the ball here been very pro active when other countries wernt and I expect more stringent measures in the coming days

They were slow at the start but picked it. Similar to yourself I despise FG but fair play in this instance.

Lumen · 15-03-2020 10:52AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They are using something that sounds remotely scientifically plausible (pseudo science) to sell to a gullible population with dreams of past greatness and stiff upper lips a policy that will result in a chunk of the population dying.

It's snake oil wrapped up in plausible sounding science, I posted a link to what real immunologists think of this with regards to COVID-19

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-open-letter-government-sars-cov-2-outbreak-response

You are welcome to offer a factual counter argument.

As you well know, I was responding to your ridiculous point that they were calling the "queen's subjects" a herd. This kind of important detail gets lost in such a busy thread.

Ah, now where's that ignore button...

dominatinMC · 15-03-2020 10:53AM

NIMAN wrote: »

The latter is only happening because it still can. Of course there is an element of whether they care or not, but thats a different argument.

Sometimes harsh rules have to force people to stop doing risky behaviour.

Perhaps the pubs in TB should have limited numbers, or shut down of their own accord already? But hey, I know people have to make a living etc.

They will be shut soon enough, and for long enough.

I agree that pubs should be shut immediately, and I say that as someone who loves the pub and a few pints. However, if the government are to impose a "lockdown", common sense will also have to apply as the government cannot expect the same measures to be enforced in rural settings as they would be in urban communities. People living in the countryside will use their common sense as go out as they see fit, knowing that will have minimal interaction with others. Tough **** for people living in the cities, there are many advantages to city life, but it seems that won't be the case during this period

cloudatlas · 15-03-2020 10:54AM

Logged in here to find out what’s happening in Ireland but every post is about UK.

perrito caliente · 15-03-2020 10:54AM

Pubs very busy again last night.

iamwhoiam · 15-03-2020 10:54AM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Handmaids tale comes to mind

I was going to ask had they white bonnets on ,

Galwayguy35 · 15-03-2020 10:54AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Be great if social media like FB etc. could be shut down for a fortnight or something. Radio and TV the only sources of verified information. I know it can't/won't be done, but honestly this type of stuff is frightening people.

We are preparing for a shut down in our house, but hoping for the best. What will be will be.

Maybe they need to be frightened if Temple Bar is anything to go by.

TheValeyard · 15-03-2020 10:55AM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Handmaids tale comes to mind

Praise be

blade1 · 15-03-2020 10:56AM

Nursing home just rang me.
Complete lockdown from tomorrow on.
I was the one family member allowed to see her so after tomorrow will I ever get to see her again? Who knows????

What's probably worse is what will be going through her head?
She's 87 and has Alzheimer's so anytime you explain something she can't grasp it.

She was in great form yesterday when I called to her even though the rest of the family haven't been able to call over the last week or so and she keeps asking why they aren't calling even though they speak to her on the phone.

I walked in yesterday and she put her two fists up to me.
I says to her "do you reckon you'd take me?
She goes " shur why wouldn't I" while laughing.

There's fight in the old girl yet.
I hope she gets through this!

Drumpot · 15-03-2020 10:57AM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Really interesting numbers if you click the bars at top for different information regarding infected and deaths

top 10 per capita in world
1 . Italy
2. Norway
3. South Korea
4. Switzerland
5. Iran
6. Denmark
7. Spain
8. Bahrain
9. Quatar
10. Sweden (Austria and Slovenia very close)

Easy to see why Europe is now considered the epicentre. Also can you imagine if USA has one state or cluster like Italy?

Critical
1. China
2. Italy
3. France
4. Spain
5. South Korea
6. Netherlands (population 17 million)
7. Japan
8. Norway (pop 5.36mil)
9. Belgium (pop 11.4mil)
10. UK

Not really as accurate as it’s not per capita and of course different countries have different rates of testing (South Korea prob wouldnt be in top 10 as they are testing the most so have much more accurate information). But these are the top 10 Figures in the world. I’d say Middle East and Africa figures will seldom, if ever be accurate.

Norway look really bad For critical per capita. I wonder though are they testing a lot as they are a rich country?!

Total deaths is equally not a great look for Europe

1. China
2. Italy
3. Iran
4. Spain
5. France
6. South Korea
7. USA
8. Japan
9. Uk
10. Switzerland

Interesting that the Uk shows up on 2 top 10 lists in the world for critical cases and deaths. Again, on its own it’s not a complete or fair way to judge where they are. That said Japan and South Korea could be taken off those lists as they are months ahead in fighting this so their numbers should actually be discounted a lot.

Population of swictzerland is less then double Ireland’s(8.5 mil), they don’t look in great shape in the deaths chart.

gozunda · 15-03-2020 10:57AM

Multipass wrote: »

From what I’ve been reading it’s not a question of letting it pass uncontrolled. I understood that the UK approach is a question of timing, when to shut things down for maximum benefit, given that a shutdown is temporary. I think it’s a more realistic, perhaps fatalistic approach, to acknowledge that there is only a limited time frame that you can lock down a country before you start to cause economic disaster, mental health disaster and law and order problems. Are people forgetting that ALL this is about is slowing down and spreading out cases so that hospitals can cope. There is no stopping this now. You can isolate us all for months, destroying countless lives in the process - but the virus will still be here. Most of us are going to have to get it eventually. it’s only a question of when, and will there be a hospital bed available if needed. The smug ‘we know better than you’ attitude is annoying - can anyone predict the damage this shutdown is going to cause?

I'd suggest that's incorrect. The approach here is delay.

The UK theory seems to be to let the infection run rampant through the population

This from the previous link

Even if we manage to protect the most vulnerable people (though no discussion is provided on how this will be done or for how long) the fatality rate for the otherwise healthy portion of the population may still be 0.5% or higher. This means that even in this unlikely “best case” scenario we would still be looking at more than 236,000 deaths.

We can and we must do better than that. China is rapidly controlling the spread of COVID-19 without requiring herd immunity (only 0.0056% of its population has been infected). Waiting for herd immunity to COVID-19 to develop in the UK by letting the virus “pass through the community” is not a good public health strategy.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us

Considing the UK are going maverick on this and potentially risking other countries public health then for sure there is a definite element of" smug ‘we know better than you’ attitude"

caveat emptor · 15-03-2020 10:57AM

JMNolan wrote: »

I don't get why people on this thread are saying we're all too dumb to self isolate? What you saw in Templebar was only a tiny tiny minority of people. The vast majority of the Irish population understand precisely how serious the situation is, we're not thick.

Most people definitely get the gravity of the situation. Unfortunately a pandemic requires an all or nothing approach. We are only as strong as our weakest link.

NIMAN · 15-03-2020 10:57AM

perrito caliente wrote: »

Pubs very busy again last night.

did you go round them all?

stockshares · 15-03-2020 10:58AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That is exactly what they done, call the UK population (who are queens subjects not citizens) a herd, and propose a snake oil solution which will result in a chunk of this "herd" dying for no good reason other than to fulfil some twisted dystopian future that UK is dead set to reach.

This policy also affects Northern Ireland and therefore here also. It more than likely will undo a lot if whats done here.

TheValeyard · 15-03-2020 10:58AM

Anyone have to pics handy of the garda cars bought from Enterprise or Eurocar?

Tordelback · 15-03-2020 10:59AM

Multipass wrote: »

No-one is promoting the spread, what sensationalist nonsense. Places have been closing, students sent home. They are delaying a government imposed shutdown until what they see as the optimal timing. No-one really knows enough to say when that is - we may well have gone too early

You say maybe too early, but because of Paddy's Day the school shutdown was really only 1 day's disruption between Thursday and Wednesday next to bring it forward almost a whole week - and far easier to prep for than if we tried to do it next Wednesday. It's also given parents this weekend to let it sink in and try to work out WTF we're going to do.

Drumpot · 15-03-2020 10:59AM

TheValeyard wrote: »

Anyone have to pics handy of the garda cars bought from Enterprise or Eurocar?

Saw somebody post picks yesterday here. Look like cars with Garda stickers on them

devnull · 15-03-2020 10:59AM

Herd Immunity idea is that once you get it you won't get it again.....
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1239071257510854657
Oh well....

BLIZZARD7 · 15-03-2020 11:00AM

Gynoid wrote: »

Not meaning to cause outrrage or argument or anything but just looking a bit objectively at the figures...it is the people over 50 who die in MUCH greater numbers. Over 50 = 0.5%, over 60 = 3 %, over 70 = 10% and growing after that to very high amounts.
This is the cohort very much in a higher risk category. That does not mean younger people won't be very sick, it might be so, I do not know.
There are also the immuno compromised who should be regarded as similar to the over 50's and older cohort.
Here we have closed schools, going for isolation of the vectors. This does not protect the most vulnerable groups - that depends on people themselves to be protecting the older demographic and the immuno-compromised. That is not dependable.
In the UK they are talking seriously now of isolating the group with the highest mortality rate. (In weeks, I don't know why...immediately would be the answer.)
If we restricted movement of the at risk groups and helped them out with food deliveries, shopping, meds etc, plus online connection via face time etc, then the virus would spread through the population that could weather it and it MIGHT build enough immunity so that at risk groups would not be meeting it every time they left their homes in a few months.
It would mean the economy could continue at least somewhat, and social welfare provision would be more affordable than a complete shutdown.

I don't know. Anyone else think this might work? Thought? I am happy to be contradicted, though it would not be pleasant to be called some sort of a monster (thanks).

If we just look at death rates here then the problem is if it spreads through younger population, what percentage will need ICU treatment anyway? The hospital system will still get overwhelmed. Did I see stats from France or Italy where 50% of ICU patients are under 50/60?
I agree that older people should be isolated as much as is possible but so should the rest of the population- think of all the younger carers/staff working in nursing homes/hospitals etc. We know this virus is highly contagious so isolating one part of the population just won't work.
Also by your own graph there the mortality for 50-59 is 1%, not 0.5%.

The other problem here is we don't know what sort of longterm damage this virus is causing? Certainly some evidence that its leaving lasting damage, severe in some cases.

The UK are being extremely reckless and we need to cut all transport between there and Ireland. An all Island solution would be the ideal situation here.

kingshankly · 15-03-2020 11:00AM

Think we need to get a sticky of all the pubs that closed on their own esteem and back them when all this blows over

CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) Read OP