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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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    #9122
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    *sigh* And this attitude will kill citizens of this state. *sigh*

    You don't self-isolate for yourself. You self-isolate so you don't infect others, who infect others, who infect others and at some point in that chain someone with an underlying illness gets it and dies.

    Don't self-isolate for yourself, self-isolate for others. Your attitude is both ignorant and selfish.

    No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

    Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

    It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

    Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!


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    #9123
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

    Michael Osterholm, infectious disease expert, on Joe Rogans podcast. 15 minute extract.


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    #9124
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    Niner leprauchan wrote: »
    Yes. Why not? You can get infected just as much from a German as an Irish person.

    Still only a very minor number of people infected.

    I have cancelled a trip to Europe this week. It may be possible to get infected here but most chain of causation is from abroad. I don't want to potentially activate a chain of causation from abroad to here. Community transmission here is a different story - especially morally ( from my pov, I mean, others do not have to agree). With community transmission one has less choice. I have a choice not to travel, and I am exercising that choice.


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    #9125
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 76,674 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

    That would leave 6.75 Billion people alive and now immune to this current strain of COVID-19.

    What would happen then is COVID would become a seasonal virus like the flu, we would develop vaccines and as you got older and were at increased risk of dieing you'd get the vaccine. In a few years it would simply be the new normal.

    It MIGHT cause governments and companies to deglobalise their supply chains somewhat to protect from the next virus which has this same impact ( which could easily happen every 20 years or so going forward ).


    Just to be clear. I am NOT saying 750 million people will die. I'm just illustrating, as a thought experiment, that even if we didn't have any ICU beds and let everyone in the world get infected in the same week humanity would still survive and society would recover and move on.

    It is bad but not that bad.


    Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.


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    #9126
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,920 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Niner leprauchan wrote: »
    No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

    Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

    It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

    Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

    I don't think you get this at all.

    The population of the planet has developed antibodies resistant to some of the major viruses. That took centuries. And some of the serious diseases you mentioned are not airborne contagious or as infectious as Covid 19.

    102 years ago, 6% of the population of the planet died of the flu. And that was in a post war slump, with basically zero tourism or business travel and on a much more sparsely populated planet.

    So the question for your black and white morality is, how easy is it for you to write off between 75 and 400 million people, mostly old or immunocompromised, today in our high tech 21st century society?


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    #9127
    khalessi
    Registered Users Posts: 6,215 ✭✭✭khalessi


    Niner leprauchan wrote: »
    No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses. Daft choice of examples
    Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.
    It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.
    Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

    First of all HIV shouldnt be in that list, it isnt contagious on casual contact unless you plan on having unprotected sex/ sharing needles in the street or workplace etc

    Hepatitis A: Transmission is chiefly by drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food. Hepatitis A can also be spread through infected feces, poor sanitation, and certain sex practices. Hepatitis B: Transmission is via exposure to infected blood, semen, or other bodily fluids.

    Scabies, Scabies usually is spread by skin-to-skin contact with a person who has scabies. Scabies sometimes is spread indirectly by sharing items such as clothing, towels, or bedding used by an infested person. Scabies can spread easily under crowded conditions where close body and skin contact is common.

    An impetigo infection can occur when the bacteria invades otherwise healthy skin through a cut, insect bite or other injury. This is known as primary impetigo.

    An infection can also occur when the bacteria invades the skin as a result of the skin barrier being disrupted by another underlying skin condition, such as head lice, scabies or eczema. This is known as secondary impetigo.

    See the Health A-Z topics about head lice, scabies, and eczema for more information about these conditions.

    An impetigo infection can spread to other people through close physical contact, or by sharing towels or flannels. As the condition does not cause any symptoms until four to 10 days after initial exposure to the bacteria, it is often easily spread to others unintentionally.

    Impetigo is a bacterial infection thought to be more common in children because their immune system has not yet fully developed. The immune system produces antibodies that help to fight infection. However, as the immune system of a young child is underdeveloped, it does not produce enough antibodies to effectively fight off infection, making them more vulnerable to infections such as impetigo.

    What is happening around the world and about to happen in Ireland is not similar to any of the exampls you listed.

    Secondly,it is not an overreaction to ask people at the moment with flu like symptoms to self isolate and it is good to know that you are ok with a close relative catching Covid 19 and depending on their health or age being ok with them dying. Theyll be glad to know you think self isolating is over reacting


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    #9128
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    jimmycrackcorm wrote: »
    My point still stands. The HSE don't have the capacity to test. Is everyone with flu symptoms supposed to self isolate?

    I don't know, but worth contacting them anyway, at least they get that metric. I'm sure they're measuring these things.


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    #9129
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    New Home wrote: »
    Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

    RNA viruses mutate all the time. It is extremely rare that it changes to something so different as to cause a unique disease.

    Although we have just witnessed it, a virus in one mammal jumped to another.


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    #9130
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    jimmycrackcorm wrote: »
    What am I going to call my GP for? I had a very mild flu like I've had before. I didn't develop it after an incubation period. I literally for it the day I arrived.

    Is everyone who gets flu supposed to call their GP?

    How do you know you didn't get an incubation period? It takes anything up to 14 days (it's a new virus, it could be more as well).

    It's utterly selfish of people to be going around with the "cold" or "flu" now.


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    #9131
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    That HIV story is interesting, but not a treatment in itself. The meds are extremely good as they are.

    The findings behind the study may be useful to finding an alternative though.

    When it comes to HIV though, it rather the money be spent on pushing out health care and prevention for all, not chasing a needless treatment that may never come.

    Any sorry for OT.
    That's my 2c


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    #9132
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Hopefully end of the tunnel for those people at the harsher end of controls. It must have felt like a lifetime.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237618659172003840?s=19


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    #9133
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,823 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).


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    #9134
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,168 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

    …

    It is bad but not that bad.

    750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
    I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.


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    #9135
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).

    I don't think they have a grip on the outbreak at all. Terribly handled.


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    #9136
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,241 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Mellor wrote: »
    750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
    I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

    Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.


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    #9137
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    New Home wrote: »
    Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

    No, I'm not but I'm conscious when, a week ago, I was one of the first people here to be stating the sorts of figures which are in public now I was pilloried and so I'm not interested in being attacked again by getting into the prediction business.

    As to mutation. It is an RNA virus. it mutates because RNA has far poorer quality control when replicating than DNA. BUT you do have to bear in mind the following:

    1. It takes a lot of mutations to make a new strain.

    2. Generally speaking ( but not certainly ) most new strains will tend to favour increased infectivity and/or new routes of infection as opposed to increased lethality.

    So while new strains will be a problem in that they can turn this into a seasonal thing they should actually attenuate overall mortality - unless we're unlucky --- which, of course, we might be but with numbers this large the role of luck is decreased and probability really does tend to point us in the right direction.


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    #9138
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    Niner leprauchan wrote: »
    No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

    Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

    It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

    Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!


    With all due respect this virus is NOT comparable to the illnesses you mentioned. Most of them aren't airborne and the one that is, flu, has a lower R0, and a mortality rate which is, at most, 1/20th of the mortality of this virus ( potentially even less ).

    This is like saying that a BB gun and a 0.5 calibre round from a Barrett sniper rifle are both bullets and therefore their effects are very similar. A BB gun may have difficulty breaking skin, a round from a Barrett rifle will go through an engine block of a car.

    Let me be very clear with you. Right now there is NO other communicable illness on the planet which has the potential to kill 1% of the world's population ( 2% of the 50% infected ) in the next 9 months.

    If you want to be cavalier about that because you won't be part of that 1% then that says a lot of terrible things about you as a human being. It is, of course, your choice but you'll understand why it would significantly reduce my levels of sympathy for you if you gamble on this and lose.


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    #9139
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    Mellor wrote: »
    750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
    I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

    Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

    It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species. That was my point. Also, you have to bear in mind that various sectors of society are trained to think and experience those sorts of situations ( large scale death etc ) and still be able to function ( doctors, nurses etc ) since if they fall apart emotionally even more people will die.

    So, you know, habituation.


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    #9140
    adam88
    Registered Users Posts: 1,608 ✭✭✭adam88


    Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse


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    #9141
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,168 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.
    I'm aware they weren't predicting that 750m dead will actually happen. They specifically said so.
    It was just a worst case scenario. But 750m as a worst case scenario is a complete disaster. And certainly not something that should be considered not that bad. Especially if we include the part about annual mutations bypassing resistance.


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    #9142
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    adam88 wrote: »
    Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse

    Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

    Far too many people here are obsessing about whether the daily increase will be x or y. It'll vary. What matters is the trajectory we are on due to:
    a) government and locally imposed controls ( cancelling Paddy's Day, reducing visitors to hospitals etc )

    b) individual responsibility and behaviour ( hand washing, social distancing and aggressive self-isolation if even potentially exposed by those who are in careers where they can do this ).


    The tighter the governmental and local controls and the more individual responsibility people take ( not just for themselves but also to help others by behaving appropriately themselves so as to limit spread ) then the more likely we are to be able to lower this trajectory, decrease total infected, increase the amount of time over which we reach this total infected number and thus greatly increase the rate of infection.

    Decreased rates of infection will give the health service the ability to provide adequate levels of care to those infected and THAT will greatly reduce death rates.

    But if people behave like selfish gombeens then we'll go the other route and, honestly, we won't deserve better.


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    #9143
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,573 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

    I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.


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    #9144
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.

    No, I think what might happen is that you vastly underestimate how bad the moderate case scenario is and how bad the worst case scenario is.

    I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that what you consider moderate is what I'd consider an optimistic scenario. etc etc


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    #9145
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,168 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

    It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species.
    I understood what you were saying. And I agree that it's not an existential threat to the species.

    I'm disagreeing with the notion that an existential threat is the cut-off point where a pandemic ceases being "not that bad".


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    #9146
    SMC92Ian
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭SMC92Ian


    I know they keep pushing wash your hands, but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?


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    #9147
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,823 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    SMC92Ian wrote: »
    ....but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

    Yes.


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    #9148
    Hamsterchops
    Registered Users Posts: 3,138 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    Nadine Dorries MP tests positive for Covid-19.

    At this stage even Boris himself may be infected?

    Wonder has he been greeting other world leaders with a handshake or an 'elbow bump' ... ?


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    #9149
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,550 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    The major problem is I think the lack of concrete evidence being presented or reasons for clusters of the virus like in Northern Italy.

    Given the Sky news figures

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

    And an absolute mortality rate of 6% or so there, you would expect someone in authority to actually quantify why the death rate is so high, is it age, Italian genetics, Italian health care in general, Italian health care being overwhelmed or what?

    Although some of the stories from hospitals in Italy are alarming, I’m guessing that the biggest cause of a high rate like that, even in Lombardy, is still underdiagnosis of asymptomatic and mild cases. One way to assess this is the number of tests. Until Italy reaches South Korean levels of testing at least, it is probably missing thousands of cases and thus inflating its fatality rate.


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    #9150
    Ellsbells1
    Registered Users Posts: 33 ✭Ellsbells1


    Should nursing homes be reopened to the general public like they are suggesting? I can understand how distressing it is and will be for patients not having visitors but I also think it is important to protect our vulnerable. But staff will still be changing etc so surely they could bring it into the nursing homes too.


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    #9151
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,550 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Namaste everyone, more spiritual than shaking hands and much safer.


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