Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

igCorcaigh

Hopefully end of the tunnel for those people at the harsher end of controls. It must have felt like a lifetime.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237618659172003840?s=19

DOCARCH

I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).

Mellor

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

…

It is bad but not that bad.

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

igCorcaigh

DOCARCH wrote: »

I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).

I don't think they have a grip on the outbreak at all. Terribly handled.

igCorcaigh

Mellor wrote: »

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.

Pseudonym121

New Home wrote: »

Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

No, I'm not but I'm conscious when, a week ago, I was one of the first people here to be stating the sorts of figures which are in public now I was pilloried and so I'm not interested in being attacked again by getting into the prediction business.

As to mutation. It is an RNA virus. it mutates because RNA has far poorer quality control when replicating than DNA. BUT you do have to bear in mind the following:

1. It takes a lot of mutations to make a new strain.

2. Generally speaking ( but not certainly ) most new strains will tend to favour increased infectivity and/or new routes of infection as opposed to increased lethality.

So while new strains will be a problem in that they can turn this into a seasonal thing they should actually attenuate overall mortality - unless we're unlucky --- which, of course, we might be but with numbers this large the role of luck is decreased and probability really does tend to point us in the right direction.

Pseudonym121

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

With all due respect this virus is NOT comparable to the illnesses you mentioned. Most of them aren't airborne and the one that is, flu, has a lower R0, and a mortality rate which is, at most, 1/20th of the mortality of this virus ( potentially even less ).

This is like saying that a BB gun and a 0.5 calibre round from a Barrett sniper rifle are both bullets and therefore their effects are very similar. A BB gun may have difficulty breaking skin, a round from a Barrett rifle will go through an engine block of a car.

Let me be very clear with you. Right now there is NO other communicable illness on the planet which has the potential to kill 1% of the world's population ( 2% of the 50% infected ) in the next 9 months.

If you want to be cavalier about that because you won't be part of that 1% then that says a lot of terrible things about you as a human being. It is, of course, your choice but you'll understand why it would significantly reduce my levels of sympathy for you if you gamble on this and lose.

Pseudonym121

Mellor wrote: »

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species. That was my point. Also, you have to bear in mind that various sectors of society are trained to think and experience those sorts of situations ( large scale death etc ) and still be able to function ( doctors, nurses etc ) since if they fall apart emotionally even more people will die.

So, you know, habituation.

adam88

Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse

Mellor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.

I'm aware they weren't predicting that 750m dead will actually happen. They specifically said so.
It was just a worst case scenario. But 750m as a worst case scenario is a complete disaster. And certainly not something that should be considered not that bad. Especially if we include the part about annual mutations bypassing resistance.

Pseudonym121

adam88 wrote: »

Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse

Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

Far too many people here are obsessing about whether the daily increase will be x or y. It'll vary. What matters is the trajectory we are on due to:
a) government and locally imposed controls ( cancelling Paddy's Day, reducing visitors to hospitals etc )

b) individual responsibility and behaviour ( hand washing, social distancing and aggressive self-isolation if even potentially exposed by those who are in careers where they can do this ).


The tighter the governmental and local controls and the more individual responsibility people take ( not just for themselves but also to help others by behaving appropriately themselves so as to limit spread ) then the more likely we are to be able to lower this trajectory, decrease total infected, increase the amount of time over which we reach this total infected number and thus greatly increase the rate of infection.

Decreased rates of infection will give the health service the ability to provide adequate levels of care to those infected and THAT will greatly reduce death rates.

But if people behave like selfish gombeens then we'll go the other route and, honestly, we won't deserve better.

Kermit.de.frog

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.

Pseudonym121

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.

No, I think what might happen is that you vastly underestimate how bad the moderate case scenario is and how bad the worst case scenario is.

I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that what you consider moderate is what I'd consider an optimistic scenario. etc etc

Mellor

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species.

I understood what you were saying. And I agree that it's not an existential threat to the species.

I'm disagreeing with the notion that an existential threat is the cut-off point where a pandemic ceases being "not that bad".

SMC92Ian

I know they keep pushing wash your hands, but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

DOCARCH

SMC92Ian wrote: »

....but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

Yes.

Hamsterchops

Nadine Dorries MP tests positive for Covid-19.

At this stage even Boris himself may be infected?

Wonder has he been greeting other world leaders with a handshake or an 'elbow bump' ... ?

Ardillaun

Spook_ie wrote: »

The major problem is I think the lack of concrete evidence being presented or reasons for clusters of the virus like in Northern Italy.

Given the Sky news figures

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

And an absolute mortality rate of 6% or so there, you would expect someone in authority to actually quantify why the death rate is so high, is it age, Italian genetics, Italian health care in general, Italian health care being overwhelmed or what?

Although some of the stories from hospitals in Italy are alarming, I’m guessing that the biggest cause of a high rate like that, even in Lombardy, is still underdiagnosis of asymptomatic and mild cases. One way to assess this is the number of tests. Until Italy reaches South Korean levels of testing at least, it is probably missing thousands of cases and thus inflating its fatality rate.

Ellsbells1

Should nursing homes be reopened to the general public like they are suggesting? I can understand how distressing it is and will be for patients not having visitors but I also think it is important to protect our vulnerable. But staff will still be changing etc so surely they could bring it into the nursing homes too.

Ardillaun

Namaste everyone, more spiritual than shaking hands and much safer.

Achasanai

SMC92Ian wrote: »

I know they keep pushing wash your hands, but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

There's lots of ways to catch it. But washing your hands (properly) will help stop it spread.

Pseudonym121

Mellor wrote: »

I understood what you were saying. And I agree that it's not an existential threat to the species.

I'm disagreeing with the notion that an existential threat is the cut-off point where a pandemic ceases being "not that bad".

Mellor, understood. I simply wanted to address the people who seem to think this will degenerate into Mad Max territory with 50 million dead worldwide ( which is not an impossible number) by pointing out that even with 15 times that number it wouldn't bring about a Mad Max scenario.

It may seem laughable but some people seem to really be concerned this could end up like Mad Max --- please God not like Beyond Thunderdome. I couldn't cope with any Tina Turner right now.

rn

SMC92Ian wrote: »

I know they keep pushing wash your hands, but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

Yes. But the chances of you being within 2m of an actively coughing person are relatively low.

The thought process is that droplets of bodily fluid infected with covid 19 can live on objects for several hours, so the chances of you picking it up on your hands is higher. Then you touch mouth, nose or eyes the virus can get a foothold in your various bodily fluids and can build from there.

Hence the focus on washing of hands.

Hamsterchops

Ellsbells1 wrote: »

Should nursing homes be reopened to the general public like they are suggesting? I can understand how distressing it is and will be for patients not having visitors but I also think it is important to protect our vulnerable. But staff will still be changing etc so surely they could bring it into the nursing homes too.

I've just been onto a family member re visiting hours and have been informed that as from yesterday the nursing home in question is closed to all visitors as a precaution against infecting patients!

Makes sense, seeing as Covid-19 is most dangerous against the elderly & infirm....

I'll be making contact by phone instead.

893bet

In3 months time everyone posting here will know on a personal level someone who has died from the virus. Our system will get overwhelmed very fast.

murphaph

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

It's a highly infectious virus, not HIV which by comparison is almost impossible to catch!

Most people do self isolate when they have the flu. Have you never stayed off work so as not to infect your workmates??

Have you never even said "don't come too close, I have a cold/the flu"??

If I'm sick I always try to limit my germ spread. I've always done this. Am I alone? I hope not!

morebabies

Don't worry, our caretaker Taoiseach is still going to Washington so everything must be OK.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0311/1121527-varadkar-us-stpatrick/

When is he coming back? I hope they don't put this on the back burner while all the TDs go on their St. Patrick's day holidays.

dublin99

rn wrote: »

Yes. But the chances of you being within 2m of an actively coughing person are relatively low.

There are always people coughing and sneezing on jam packed rush hour buses and luas etc!

There are also studies that show virus can travel much further than 2 metres:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Ellsbells1

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I've just been onto a family member re visiting hours and have been informed that as from yesterday the nursing home in question is closed to all visitors as a precaution against infecting patients!

Makes sense, seeing as Covid-19 is most dangerous against the elderly & infirm....

I'll be making contact by phone instead.

Exactly I think it’s bizzare them coming out and saying that they should be open to the general public. I think if it goes on for a long time they will have to become creative for residents who it begins to upset because I can see it upsetting my relative as time passes as he doesn’t use a mobile phone but I do think it is the right call. The only thing that worries me is people who are palliative are still allowed visitors which is understandable but should there not be restrictions put in place for this time protect all residents as you could have people who are infected but don’t know yet going in to visit family members.

Over 70s should be self isolating or as close to it as possible. Obviously if you're immobile and need care that's different. Same goes for immune compromised people.

Hopefully most of them understand the seriousness of it. Family members need to have common sense too.