Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

old_aussie wrote: »

Second Person Cured Of AIDS

May be of some help in fighting the latest virus


https://www.sciencealert.com/hiv-cured-london-man-still-has-no-trace-of-infection-nearly-3-years-after-treatment

No it won't be. In simple terms it requires obliteration of an individual's existing immune system/bone marrow and its replacement with bone marrow from an individual with a rare genetic immunity to HIV.

This isn't something which is going to be widely useful even in those infected with HIV ( although it does point to some avenues of research for more widely applicable cures for those infected with HIV ) never mind COVID-19.

Even if it were possible the timelines just don't match up. Basically if you get COVID-19 very severely and are ventilated and get bilateral interstitial pneumonia it appears you are often dead in 10 to 14 days from onset of symptoms. Even if this treatment could cure people of COVID-19 ( which it cannot ) it is a process of months rather than days or weeks and the process of obliterating the sufferer's immune system would simply accelerate their death.

Summer2020 wrote: »

I Started out in January thinking this was a China only problem. The last day or so has me seriously worried that this could change our way of life forever. This has all the hall marks of a seismic event in world history. The years of unhindered worldwide travel and open borders could be over.

This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

That would leave 6.75 Billion people alive and now immune to this current strain of COVID-19.

What would happen then is COVID would become a seasonal virus like the flu, we would develop vaccines and as you got older and were at increased risk of dieing you'd get the vaccine. In a few years it would simply be the new normal.

It MIGHT cause governments and companies to deglobalise their supply chains somewhat to protect from the next virus which has this same impact ( which could easily happen every 20 years or so going forward ).


Just to be clear. I am NOT saying 750 million people will die. I'm just illustrating, as a thought experiment, that even if we didn't have any ICU beds and let everyone in the world get infected in the same week humanity would still survive and society would recover and move on.

It is bad but not that bad.

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses. Daft choice of examples
Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.
It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.
Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

First of all HIV shouldnt be in that list, it isnt contagious on casual contact unless you plan on having unprotected sex/ sharing needles in the street or workplace etc

Hepatitis A: Transmission is chiefly by drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food. Hepatitis A can also be spread through infected feces, poor sanitation, and certain sex practices. Hepatitis B: Transmission is via exposure to infected blood, semen, or other bodily fluids.

Scabies, Scabies usually is spread by skin-to-skin contact with a person who has scabies. Scabies sometimes is spread indirectly by sharing items such as clothing, towels, or bedding used by an infested person. Scabies can spread easily under crowded conditions where close body and skin contact is common.

An impetigo infection can occur when the bacteria invades otherwise healthy skin through a cut, insect bite or other injury. This is known as primary impetigo.

An infection can also occur when the bacteria invades the skin as a result of the skin barrier being disrupted by another underlying skin condition, such as head lice, scabies or eczema. This is known as secondary impetigo.

See the Health A-Z topics about head lice, scabies, and eczema for more information about these conditions.

An impetigo infection can spread to other people through close physical contact, or by sharing towels or flannels. As the condition does not cause any symptoms until four to 10 days after initial exposure to the bacteria, it is often easily spread to others unintentionally.

Impetigo is a bacterial infection thought to be more common in children because their immune system has not yet fully developed. The immune system produces antibodies that help to fight infection. However, as the immune system of a young child is underdeveloped, it does not produce enough antibodies to effectively fight off infection, making them more vulnerable to infections such as impetigo.

What is happening around the world and about to happen in Ireland is not similar to any of the exampls you listed.

Secondly,it is not an overreaction to ask people at the moment with flu like symptoms to self isolate and it is good to know that you are ok with a close relative catching Covid 19 and depending on their health or age being ok with them dying. Theyll be glad to know you think self isolating is over reacting

New Home wrote: »

Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

No, I'm not but I'm conscious when, a week ago, I was one of the first people here to be stating the sorts of figures which are in public now I was pilloried and so I'm not interested in being attacked again by getting into the prediction business.

As to mutation. It is an RNA virus. it mutates because RNA has far poorer quality control when replicating than DNA. BUT you do have to bear in mind the following:

1. It takes a lot of mutations to make a new strain.

2. Generally speaking ( but not certainly ) most new strains will tend to favour increased infectivity and/or new routes of infection as opposed to increased lethality.

So while new strains will be a problem in that they can turn this into a seasonal thing they should actually attenuate overall mortality - unless we're unlucky --- which, of course, we might be but with numbers this large the role of luck is decreased and probability really does tend to point us in the right direction.

Mellor wrote: »

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species. That was my point. Also, you have to bear in mind that various sectors of society are trained to think and experience those sorts of situations ( large scale death etc ) and still be able to function ( doctors, nurses etc ) since if they fall apart emotionally even more people will die.

So, you know, habituation.