Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) Read warnings in OP

laurah591 · 05-03-2020 02:47PM

otnomart wrote: »

Today in the New England Journal of Medicine
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
"A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27.
Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between January 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR1jpHVcw4pBlmcr0JIubridJjIwlSVyV7G3DSQ9iFaMtd-mnX3d9F_WRzM

How did this first case in Bavaria spread to the rest of Europe ?
An hypothesis could be:
-Bavaria
-Spain
-13 February: first death in Valencia (only announced this week)
-19 February: Valencia fans travelled to Bergamo for match with Atalanta
-Italy

But that still does not explain the first victim in France - who had no links with neither China nor Italy.

Wasn't the first death in France an 80 year old Chinese tourist (May have that wrong)?

gabeeg · 05-03-2020 02:48PM

Cw85 wrote: »

The Flu virus is an unpredictable virus.

If you are healthy you will usually recover in 7 days. But Flu can be severe and can cause serious illness and death.

Complications of flu include bronchitis, pneumonia, ear infections and rarely acute encephalopathy (swelling of the brain).

Serious complications of flu are more likely if you have a chronic medical condition or if you are aged 65 years or older. Pregnant women are also at increased risk of flu complications.

In Ireland, between 200 and 500 people, mainly older people, die from flu each winter.

Every year, around the world, flu causes between 3 and 5 million cases of severe disease and up to 646, 000 deaths.

Not my numbers fella, straight from the HSE website

I'm struggling to find stats on yearly deaths, but I don't think we've seen 200 never mind 500 yearly deaths from flu in decades.

Here's an article from mid february 2019 which quotes the HSE as saying we'd had 34 deaths so far that year
https://www.thejournal.ie/flu-deaths-4494541-Feb2019/

And there's loads and loads of articles just like that

Kilboor · 05-03-2020 02:49PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Neighbour works in nearest large Tesco.

They are now short on pasta, tins of chopped tomatoes, flour, yeast and obviously then the cleaning products, liquid soaps and hand gels

Irish people aren't greedy or selfish at all

deathbomber · 05-03-2020 02:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't believe you. Why would the coronavirus be lying dormant in the Pancreas where the endocrine receptors are? I've seen no evidence of case studies of reinfection.
And obviously, source?

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

JDD · 05-03-2020 02:50PM

So I'm working from home today. Apparently someone in my very large organisation (2000+ staff) is being tested for C-19, so bosses have left it up to us whether we want to work from home for the day or not. I decided to, not because I thought there'd be a risk of infection if I went in today, just because it suits me from a childcare point of view.

I expect the test will come back negative. Either way I'd say we'll all be back in tomorrow. If the test is positive they'll probably give those people who work on the same floor as the infected person the option to work from home for the next week or so.

I'm just about to head up to Dunnes now. I'll check the shelves for any panic buying signs. Might buy a couple of tins of kidney beans and a pack of toilet rolls. Just for the zeitgeist of it all.

otnomart · 05-03-2020 02:50PM

laurah591 wrote: »

Wasn't the first death in France an 80 year old Chinese tourist (May have that wrong)?

You are absolutely right !
I should have written in my post: first French victim

-first victim in France was indeed a Chinese national
-first French victim was the person diagnosed on 25 February after 6 days in Creil Hospital
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/a-creil-l-inquietude-des-soignants-du-francais-victime-du-coronavirus-1864805.html

Daz_ · 05-03-2020 02:50PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Neighbour works in nearest large Tesco.

They are now short on pasta, tins of chopped tomatoes, flour, yeast and obviously then the cleaning products, liquid soaps and hand gels

Seems like you can’t say stuff like this or it’s just “confirmation bias” or some other fancy terminology ...

Whestsidestory · 05-03-2020 02:50PM

Pasta from Italy and Rice from China &#55357;&#56847;

Cw85 · 05-03-2020 02:50PM

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm struggling to find stats on yearly deaths, but I don't think we've seen 200 never mind 500 yearly deaths from flu in decades.

Here's an article from mid february 2019 which quotes the HSE as saying we'd had 34 deaths so far that year
https://www.thejournal.ie/flu-deaths-4494541-Feb2019/

And there's loads and loads of articles just like that

So you're saying the Journal has a better insight than the HSE?

05-03-2020 02:51PM

deathbomber wrote: »

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

Which I broadly agree with. But curious where tinychancer got their information. Intrigued by this endocrine receptors business.

BloodBath · 05-03-2020 02:51PM

deathbomber wrote: »

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

Combination of things.

A. Testing of areas that weren't tested previously where the virus was lying dormant.

B. People with weak immune systems can catch many things more than once as their body can't produce enough anti bodies to provide immunity.

Makes a great headline though.

macwal · 05-03-2020 02:51PM

Multipass wrote: »

There was definitely a slight buzz of that in the supermarket just now. A lot more full trolleys than normal. I saw one guy with about 50 can of beans, he'll be too healthy to catch any virus soon

He's probably building a fart... I mean fort.

the butcher · 05-03-2020 02:51PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

Not a very helpful comment - posts like this just derail the thread. Why bother posting at all, if there is nothing helpful or factual to say?

You obviously haven't been reading the thread properly as if you've read any of my posts, most of them are links to updates/reports/graphs/research :rolleyes:

I think the odd humorous comment shouldn't be voided.

https://twitter.com/wallerABC7/status/1235563288043405313

Bass Reeves · 05-03-2020 02:52PM

https://youtu.be/nR0lOtdvqyg

Somebody may have put it up already but........

cnocbui · 05-03-2020 02:52PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I was thinking this myself. What is the attraction to a Skiing holiday in Italy? It doesn't appeal to me anyways.

Each to their own but We did a ski trip to Val Gardena. One of the best holidays ever. Fantastic food, scenery and fun.

RollieFingers · 05-03-2020 02:52PM

Multipass wrote: »

There was definitely a slight buzz of that in the supermarket just now. A lot more full trolleys than normal. I saw one guy with about 50 can of beans, he'll be too healthy to catch any virus soon

Been in Tesco and Dunnes in the city centre in the last hour, both fully stocked and no sign of panic whatsoever.

woohoo!!! · 05-03-2020 02:52PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the 2% rate has to be the most random figure ever thrown around in history

I've repeated already it's an illustration, not a prediction. Or is that difficult to read and comprehend.

IQO · 05-03-2020 02:53PM

Netherlands: confirmed Corona cases jumps from 38 to 82 today.

Source; https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus

BloodBath · 05-03-2020 02:54PM

Daz_ wrote: »

Seems like you can’t say stuff like this or it’s just “confirmation bias” or some other fancy terminology ...

Not saying it isn't happening. I'm saying it's not happening in my town. I wouldn't be surprised if the ones on here haven't stirred some family and friends into a frenzy to clear out those items from their local stores. It's far from a nationwide problem though and there are 0 problems with the supply chain atm.

If people chilled the feck out there would be no shortages of anything.

quokula · 05-03-2020 02:54PM

Whestsidestory wrote: »

Pasta from Italy and Rice from China ��

You're right, best order risotto and noodles.

gabeeg · 05-03-2020 02:54PM

Cw85 wrote: »

So you're saying the Journal has a better insight than the HSE?

No, the journal are quoting the HSE.
I can get you the Irish Times quoting the HSE if you like?

I'm saying that the piece the HSE has put up on its website is way off. Perhaps they're calculating those numbers over a long period of time, but it does not reflect the reality today.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 05-03-2020 02:54PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't believe you. Why would the coronavirus be lying dormant in the Pancreas where the endocrine receptors are? I've seen no evidence of case studies of reinfection.
And obviously, source?

Well it's a novel virus, so the evidence that we have to go on is limited, which is why I'm merely suggesting that attempting to get infected to 'get through it' is not recommended at this point.

Here is a study of the SARS virus where the "localization of ACE2 expression in the endocrine part of the pancreas suggests that SARS coronavirus enters islets using ACE2 as its receptor and damages islets causing acute diabetes".

I'm still trying to find the link to the more thorough article from yesterday which was a study of a patient with Encephalitis.

Ah, here is a similar one.

Nijmegen · 05-03-2020 02:57PM

Thread number 4 howareya! The preparations in the job have accelerated mightily this week. Also talking to a lot of businesses that are already seeing the impact of the spread. First governments now businesses seem to have got on the "It's bad" bandwagon, I'm sure the public might follow eventually.

The HSE are only announcing cases once per day? I wonder if that is wise if the numbers are gonna go up quickly, as we have to assume they will (if we follow the way many other countries have gone) or are you better off drip dripping it out in smaller looking numbers (of course we can all count at the end of the day).

Steve F · 05-03-2020 02:57PM

Perspective??

Of the 56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016, more than half (54%) were due to the top 10 causes. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the world’s biggest killers, accounting for a combined 15.2 million deaths in 2016. These diseases have remained the leading causes of death globally in the last 15 years.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease claimed 3.0 million lives in 2016, while lung cancer (along with trachea and bronchus cancers) caused 1.7 million deaths. Diabetes killed 1.6 million people in 2016, up from less than 1 million in 2000. Deaths due to dementias more than doubled between 2000 and 2016, making it the 5th leading cause of global deaths in 2016 compared to 14th in 2000.

Lower respiratory infections remained the most deadly communicable disease, causing 3.0 million deaths worldwide in 2016. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases decreased by almost 1 million between 2000 and 2016, but still caused 1.4 million deaths in 2016. Similarly, the number of tuberculosis deaths decreased during the same period, but is still among the top 10 causes with a death toll of 1.3 million. HIV/AIDS is no longer among the world’s top 10 causes of death, having killed 1.0 million people in 2016 compared with 1.5 million in 2000.

Cw85 · 05-03-2020 02:57PM

gabeeg wrote: »

No, the journal are quoting the HSE.
I can get you the Irish Times quoting the HSE if you like?

I'm saying that the piece the HSE has put up on its website is way off. Perhaps they're calculating those numbers over a long period of time, but it does not reflect the reality today.

I'm just going from what the HSE have on their website, not arguing. My point really being that more people have and will die from the common flu than this virus.

piplip87 · 05-03-2020 02:58PM

Briefing at two. I'd say more new cases

pc7 · 05-03-2020 02:58PM

At least if they only announce them once a day the thread only implodes once, if they drip feed it could be messed up all day

pc7 · 05-03-2020 02:59PM

piplip87 wrote: »

Briefing at two. I'd say more new cases

Is it online?

Kermit.de.frog · 05-03-2020 03:01PM

piplip87 wrote: »

Briefing at two. I'd say more new cases

UK or HSE?

Daz_ · 05-03-2020 03:01PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Not saying it isn't happening. I'm saying it's not happening in my town. I wouldn't be surprised if the ones on here haven't stirred some family and friends into a frenzy to clear out those items from their local stores. It's far from a nationwide problem though and there are 0 problems with the supply chain atm.

If people chilled the feck out there would be no shortages of anything.

Thinking that a handful of people here are responsible for any stockpiling across the country is a bit of a stretch . Why is there no hand gel if there is 0 problems with supply chain ? Are you working at a high level in the supply chain to make this claim ?

Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) Read warnings in OP