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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Comments

  • #4442
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    It seems that epidemiology and statistics are not strong points here. I’ll explain the maths and conclusions in fuller detail going from USA to Ireland and then vice versa.

    The US has approx 300 million people and has 36,000 deaths per year from flu. This equates to 120 deaths from flu per million people. So for 5 million Americans there are 600 deaths from flu.

    Ireland has roughly 5 million people and has 120 deaths per year from flu.

    The difference in those two numbers, 480 dead people per 5 million citizens is the number of people who die in America for that population size per year from flu vs Ireland.

    The reason, I believe, and there is much evidence to support this on pubmed ( a database of published research) is that those 480 people die largely due to limited access to quality healthcare by people who are without or with only poor quality healthcare in America.


    This confusion over some very simple statistics and maths is also part of the reason why information flow is managed and presented in manageable chunks. Most people are simply not trained or experienced to manipulate epidemiological data and draw the correct conclusions. Sending out the raw data ASAP would lead to people doing the sums wrong, drawing the wrongs conclusions and great problems.

    I am not posting this to have conflict with any posters but simply to elucidate the maths behind the statements I made.

    As a country Ireland will do better than the vast majority of the world due to our healthcare system. Also when we count the death toll at the end there will be a significant portion of doctors and nurses there because they stayed at their posts to care for people with Coronavirus instead of scaremongering. If necessary I’ll be one of them.

    You might consider thinking about that, calming down and allowing us to do our jobs and help you and those you care about if and when you become ill.

    With respect.

    And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

    By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

    With respect.


  • #4443
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,382 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    ESH5NBzXkAUx8J0?format=png&name=900x900
    Oh where did you get that?!


  • #4444
    gabeeg
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Because it's politically better and this is Italy.

    They were giving out that the northern regions were going too far and demanded a change in the counting methodology.


    are you sure you didn't mean that they're only testing people with symptoms?

    because you said they're only counting the ones with symptoms, and that seems mad. Even for Italy.


  • #4445
    00sully
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,267 ✭✭✭00sully


    Boggles wrote: »
    South Korea would have a handle on it but for



    Each and every one of them should be fired into the sun.

    Or at least into the suns Corona :pac:


  • #4446
    Pseudonym121
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 309 ✭✭Pseudonym121


    Andre Spoiled Lacrosse wrote: »
    Your posts are a combination of condescending insults and stupidity. A couple of other people have already explained the very simple maths that you got wrong. I hope you aren't really a doctor.

    Well, that didn’t take long. I’ll leave you to your preference for your own reality.


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  • #4447
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    gmisk wrote: »
    Oh where did you get that?!

    https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1234548939321487371


  • #4448
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

    By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

    With respect.

    You really are a bad dose on this thread. Listen to the man and you might learn something more than how to spread your doom and gloom.


  • #4449
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    mental youtube doc on life in wuhan. one scene shows police welding an apartment block shut. with people inside.



  • #4450
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    It seems that epidemiology and statistics are not strong points here. I’ll explain the maths and conclusions in fuller detail going from USA to Ireland and then vice versa.

    The US has approx 300 million people and has 36,000 deaths per year from flu. This equates to 120 deaths from flu per million people. So for 5 million Americans there are 600 deaths from flu.

    Ireland has roughly 5 million people and has 120 deaths per year from flu.

    The difference in those two numbers, 480 dead people per 5 million citizens is the number of people who die in America for that population size per year from flu vs Ireland.

    The reason, I believe, and there is much evidence to support this on pubmed ( a database of published research) is that those 480 people die largely due to limited access to quality healthcare by people who are without or with only poor quality healthcare in America.


    This confusion over some very simple statistics and maths is also part of the reason why information flow is managed and presented in manageable chunks. Most people are simply not trained or experienced to manipulate epidemiological data and draw the correct conclusions. Sending out the raw data ASAP would lead to people doing the sums wrong, drawing the wrongs conclusions and great problems.

    I am not posting this to have conflict with any posters but simply to elucidate the maths behind the statements I made.

    As a country Ireland will do better than the vast majority of the world due to our healthcare system. Also when we count the death toll at the end there will be a significant portion of doctors and nurses there because they stayed at their posts to care for people with Coronavirus instead of scaremongering. If necessary I’ll be one of them.

    You might consider thinking about that, calming down and allowing us to do our jobs and help you and those you care about if and when you become ill.

    With respect.

    Do you thing that the disease has spread so quickly in Italy due to less restrictions than China had on affected areas?

    Also, should we not be restricting inwards travel from heavily affected regions or implementing quarantine at the very least ?

    Is Ireland prepared or doing enough to stop this spreading or will it be similar to Italy! Would love your thoughts on this!


  • #4451
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    It seems that epidemiology and statistics are not strong points here. I’ll explain the maths and conclusions in fuller detail going from USA to Ireland and then vice versa.

    The US has approx 300 million people and has 36,000 deaths per year from flu. This equates to 120 deaths from flu per million people. So for 5 million Americans there are 600 deaths from flu.

    Ireland has roughly 5 million people and has 120 deaths per year from flu.

    The difference in those two numbers, 480 dead people per 5 million citizens is the number of people who die in America for that population size per year from flu vs Ireland.

    The reason, I believe, and there is much evidence to support this on pubmed ( a database of published research) is that those 480 people die largely due to limited access to quality healthcare by people who are without or with only poor quality healthcare in America.


    This confusion over some very simple statistics and maths is also part of the reason why information flow is managed and presented in manageable chunks. Most people are simply not trained or experienced to manipulate epidemiological data and draw the correct conclusions. Sending out the raw data ASAP would lead to people doing the sums wrong, drawing the wrongs conclusions and great problems.

    I am not posting this to have conflict with any posters but simply to elucidate the maths behind the statements I made.

    As a country Ireland will do better than the vast majority of the world due to our healthcare system. Also when we count the death toll at the end there will be a significant portion of doctors and nurses there because they stayed at their posts to care for people with Coronavirus instead of scaremongering. If necessary I’ll be one of them.

    You might consider thinking about that, calming down and allowing us to do our jobs and help you and those you care about if and when you become ill.

    With respect.

    Ireland's health care system is just above bottom placed Ukraine according to the HealthCare Index. The index is an estimation of the overall quality of the health care system, health care professionals, equipment, staff, doctors, cost etc.

    Worst or second worst in many categories.
    That's not an attack on your goodself now mind.

    That's the reality. Spin doesn't cut it. Aren't we all complaining about it 52 weeks of the year. All of a sudden under potential pandemic conditions what exactly will change.


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  • #4452
    channaigh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭channaigh


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    No, this would be a rather sub-optimal choice to make at this time ;)

    Never being great at following doctors advice :)
    I'll decide Thursday see how the week pans out


  • #4453
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    there is no evidence showing that the virus can transmit from humans to dogs and cats or vice versa, according to both the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


  • #4454
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,382 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

    By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

    With respect.
    If you think the front line doctors and nurses are the problem with the HSE your honestly tapped.


  • #4455
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    Why is it spreading so quick in Italy? Does anyone any theory for this ?


  • #4456
    Cuckoo7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 235 ✭✭Cuckoo7


    gabeeg wrote: »
    are you sure you didn't mean that they're only testing people with symptoms?

    because you said they're only counting the ones with symptoms, and that seems mad. Even for Italy.

    I was going to ask the same thing. I understood they were testing only symptomatic patients, not that they were testing as before and only counting some,. Doesn’t make sense.


  • #4457
    Computer Science Student
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 225 ✭✭Computer Science Student


    When will they start banning major events?


  • #4458
    Kaisr Sose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,683 ✭✭✭Kaisr Sose


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

    By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

    With respect.

    Thats not really necessary. The issue with healthcare is not lack of expertise on the frontline. In the public interests of this thread, let's not turn it into a HSE bashing thread.


  • #4459
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    gmisk wrote: »
    If you think the front line doctors and nurses are the problem with the HSE your honestly tapped.

    They are in here cheerleading the HSE. If they want to spin a tune go ahead but I'm not buying it.


  • #4460
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,382 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    tillyfilly wrote: »
    there is no evidence showing that the virus can transmit from humans to dogs and cats or vice versa, according to both the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
    Were people suggesting that?!


  • #4461
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    Canine Coronavirus is one of the leading viral causes of diarrhea in puppies.


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  • #4462
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    frillyleaf wrote: »
    Why is it spreading so quick in Italy? Does anyone any theory for this ?


    Covid19 was probably there in Italy for a lot longer unknown to health authorities . They didn't have the opportunities to trace the first carriers because they didn't know about them.


  • #4463
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8


    The first person who tested positive in New York was only the 32nd person they had actually tested!

    Not just that , it seems testing is really proving to be a problem in the US.

    On the plus side they were saying CFR in South Korea is 0.2-0.4 which is far more encouraging.


  • #4464
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    History is not going to be kind to the current batch of world leaders


  • #4465
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,392 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Pseudonym121 wrote: »
    The US has approx 300 million people and has 36,000 deaths per year from flu. This equates to 120 deaths from flu per million people. So for 5 million Americans there are 600 deaths from flu.

    You are making a relative comparison (Ireland v US) and pivoting from that to reassure us that we can handle coronavirus impact. Seems like a bit of a bait and switch.
    How do we compare versus France or Germany or South Korea or Singapore then, in the interests of relative balance?

    You seem to suggest that it will spread generally throughout Ireland and large numbers will be infected?
    Surely what matters then is what are the expected number of coronavirus cases requiring hospitalisation versus the capacity of the system to treat them, and what different kinds of treatments will be needed.

    Why should we be reassured in quantity terms - rather than relative?

    Disclaimer: I have a lot of confidence in the quality of care serious coronavirus patients will receive - up to a point of serious cases reaching three or four digits.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #4466
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,458 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

    By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

    With respect.
    Give it a rest please. Your cynicism over the handling of this throughout the relevant threads is very clear for everyone to see. Please respect other people's views rather than implying your own are the only valid ones


  • #4467
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    They are in here cheerleading the HSE. If they want to spin a tune go ahead but I'm not buying it.

    Wise up Professor.

    Check out this thread and post if you think he is a cheerleader for the HSE.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112573123&postcount=75

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112569498&postcount=61


  • #4468
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    gmisk wrote: »
    Were people suggesting that?!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/a-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-the-coronavirus-who-confirms.html


  • #4469
    gmisk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,382 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Computer Science Student wrote: »
    When will they start banning major events?
    Do you mean in Ireland or outside?
    6 nation's match already cancelled.

    Paddys day parade must be at risk.

    Surprised crufts is going ahead.


  • #4470
    Cuckoo7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 235 ✭✭Cuckoo7


    gmisk wrote: »
    Were people suggesting that?!
    Yes. I shudder to think what some will do to their pets should this rumor extend.


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  • #4471
    Cilldara_2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,189 ✭✭✭Cilldara_2000


    Computer Science Student wrote: »
    When will they start banning major events?

    Wedhursday aftermorning at 25.62pm.


This discussion has been closed.
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