Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

Pseudonym121

frillyleaf wrote: »

Do you thing that the disease has spread so quickly in Italy due to less restrictions than China had on affected areas?

Also, should we not be restricting inwards travel from heavily affected regions or implementing quarantine at the very least ?

Is Ireland prepared or doing enough to stop this spreading or will it be similar to Italy! Would love your thoughts on this!

I think Western liberal democracies are, in general, not able to place restrictions on citizens in the way that China can.

You only have to look at this thread where a number of individuals choose to ignore science, epidemiology and maths and rapidly have retreated to hurling abuse and personal attacks. That wouldn’t be tolerated in China. In Ireland these are the same sorts of people who will breach the cordons, not follow advice and ensure it spreads.

As to quarantine and travel restrictions. It is too late for that. It is here, has spread for quite a few days in a school, in those students’ homes and in their parents’ works. That ship has already sailed.

It will spread as Ireland will do a poor job quarantining and cordoning for the reasons outlined above but we’ll do better with treating patients than Italy - to a point.

We need to accept that pandemic means pandemic. It will spread throughout Ireland, that die is cast. People will die and each death will be a personal tragedy but it won’t be the apocalypse people seem to be fearmongering.

BanditLuke

Snow Garden wrote: »

You really are a bad dose on this thread. Listen to the man and you might learn something more than how to spread your doom and gloom.

Not doom and gloom plain in your face truth.

Why do you presume it's a man BTW? Seems a bit sexist

Osborne

BanditLuke wrote: »

And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

With respect.

Absolutely pathetic.

Blud

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

You’ll be amazed at how badly America will do and the per capita death rate there compared to here. Eg. They lose 36,000 to flu every year. Ireland loses 120 (roughly). If we had the same population as them we should have about 600 flu deaths a year.

Good posts buddy, about time for some sense. Despite the entertainment from the hysteria.

In case you were wondering, the above is where you went wrong. You've said "if we had the same population as them" when, going by the maths you subsequently used, you meant "if they had the same population as us".

But sure anyways. Keep up the good work.

gabeeg

Drumpot wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8

On the plus side they were saying CFR in South Korea is 0.2-0.4 which is far more encouraging.

It is. But it's also a little suspicious.

If they've figured out methods to keep the death rates down they should be banging that drum.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/europe/italy-coronavirus.html

But according to the Health Ministry, Lombardy has also carried out swab tests on people who are more likely to have come into contact with infected people, even if they have no symptoms themselves.

Experts at the World Health Organization and Italy’s Health Ministry said in interviews that it was possible that Lombardy had created an inflated perception of the threat by including in case totals people who tested positive for the virus but who had not gotten sick. But many scientists say that attempting to track even mild cases of the virus is essential to containing its spread.

On Thursday, after insisting that their comprehensive approach to testing was the right one, Lombardy said it would now conform with national and international guidelines and test only people showing symptoms.

Hence today's apparent drop in new cases.

Not sure it achieved as much as the politicians wanted - it's still +342 for the day and 18 new deaths.

Can only push so much under the rug.

olestoepoke

Not sure if its students spreading fake news but just got sent a couple of pics of an ambulance taking a student out of dcu. Ambulance men wearing face masks. Not sure what was wrong with the student.

Call Me Jimmy

Snow Garden wrote: »

You really are a bad dose on this thread. Listen to the man and you might learn something more than how to spread your doom and gloom.

There is enough doom and gloom in Pseudonym's recent posts in fairness.

rsl1976

My brother works in the back office of one of the banks. He's been told to wfh on Wednesday again just to test their capacity but I assume they are expecting it may be a requirement over the next few weeks.

gmisk

Cuckoo7 wrote: »

Yes. I shudder to think what some will do to their pets should this rumor extend.

Let's hope this one doesn't get sent around Facebook and WhatsApp like the rest!

gmisk

gmisk wrote: »

If you think the front line doctors and nurses are the problem with the HSE your honestly tapped.

I was visiting a patient in hospital in January. A woman across from her with obvious confusion fell out of bed while I was there. When I went out to get a nurse there were 4 nurses sitting at desks none of them jumping out of their chairs to come to her aid. The next day the nurses were telling her son she was fine to go home (but hadn't told him she'd fallen out of bed). The health service in this country will never be sorted when people treat the staff like they can do no wrong. If a restaurant is bad is it the fault of the building or the food or the staff?

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

It’s OBD’s taboo thought of the day: I’m closing in on five years with cancer, I’m thoroughly fed up of treatment and kind of my life in general. A year ago, I was pancytopenic due to bone marrow mets (under control for now) and therefore very immunocompromised. I kinda wish I still was and then I might actually try and seek out the virus and just get it over with. Yes folks, the pitch black thought process of a dying person.

Though oddly, I’ve not had a cold since I was diagnosed and I’ve never had the flu ever.

Professor Moriarty

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

It seems that epidemiology and statistics are not strong points here. I’ll explain the maths and conclusions in fuller detail going from USA to Ireland and then vice versa.

The US has approx 300 million people and has 36,000 deaths per year from flu. This equates to 120 deaths from flu per million people. So for 5 million Americans there are 600 deaths from flu.

Ireland has roughly 5 million people and has 120 deaths per year from flu.

The difference in those two numbers, 480 dead people per 5 million citizens is the number of people who die in America for that population size per year from flu vs Ireland.

The reason, I believe, and there is much evidence to support this on pubmed ( a database of published research) is that those 480 people die largely due to limited access to quality healthcare by people who are without or with only poor quality healthcare in America.


This confusion over some very simple statistics and maths is also part of the reason why information flow is managed and presented in manageable chunks. Most people are simply not trained or experienced to manipulate epidemiological data and draw the correct conclusions. Sending out the raw data ASAP would lead to people doing the sums wrong, drawing the wrongs conclusions and great problems.

I am not posting this to have conflict with any posters but simply to elucidate the maths behind the statements I made.

As a country Ireland will do better than the vast majority of the world due to our healthcare system. Also when we count the death toll at the end there will be a significant portion of doctors and nurses there because they stayed at their posts to care for people with Coronavirus instead of scaremongering. If necessary I’ll be one of them.

You might consider thinking about that, calming down and allowing us to do our jobs and help you and those you care about if and when you become ill.

With respect.

Your posts are just what is needed. A nitpick. This 2019 report from the HSE/HSPC states "Approx. 200-500 deaths each year due to influenza – up to 1,000 could die during a particularly severe flu season". Just wondering how accurate your 120 figure is?

Nonoperational

BanditLuke wrote: »

HSE PR team are flat out more like it

The bandit is going nowhere I'm afraid.

BanditLuke wrote: »

And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

With respect.

To be honest man, you're a disgrace. I've spent 13 hours today in a patient facing role seeing patients with all manor of illnesses in a large hospital here. I go home and see my kid for a few minutes before they go to bed. I'll do that for 12 days straight. Covid, Pneumonia, whatever they have. I see them, examine, them and do my best.

I don't want any sympathy, this is my choice, but to think you'd be so low to try and blame the front line staff because it doesn't fit with your warped narrow conspiracy theory. Disgusting and rotten post.

givyjoe

Snow Garden wrote: »

You really are a bad dose on this thread. Listen to the man and you might learn something more than how to spread your doom and gloom.

To be fair, a significant proportion of the "doom and gloom" as you put it, was the concern that we won't have enough ventilation equipment to cope, resulting in a spike of deaths. We have a HSE consultant confirming that this is likely. Seems the concern was justified and highlights the need to do absolutely everything we can to slow this down.

coastwatch

BanditLuke wrote: »

And this has been a party political broadcast by the HSE.

By the way if you did your jobs we may not have hundreds of people laid out on trollies every night in your facilties.

With respect.

You could move to Iran, they have a health service too.

Blueshoe

Osborne wrote: »

Absolutely pathetic.

Fantasy is believing a health care system that consistently ranks as one of the worst performing in Europe during normal operation will suddenly become an efficient, effective system during a pandemic.

Go visit a and e on a regular night or better yet the weekend for a taste

BanditLuke

Beasty wrote: »

Give it a rest please. Your cynicism over the handling of this throughout the relevant threads is very clear for everyone to see. Please respect other people's views rather than implying your own are the only valid ones

I do respect them. Aren't I allowed argue my side of the issue?

gabeeg

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/europe/italy-coronavirus.html



Hence today's apparent drop in new cases.

Not sure it achieved as much as the politicians wanted - it's still +342 for the day and 18 new deaths.

Can only push so much under the rug.

Cheers

They've ruined my exponential growth chart, the swines

Pseudonym121

odyssey06 wrote: »

You are making a relative comparison (Ireland v US) and pivoting from that to reassure us that we can handle coronavirus impact. Seems like a bit of a bait and switch.
How do we compare versus France or Germany or South Korea or Singapore then, in the interests of relative balance?

You seem to suggest that it will spread generally throughout Ireland and large numbers will be infected?
Surely what matters then is what are the expected number of coronavirus cases requiring hospitalisation versus the capacity of the system to treat them, and what different kinds of treatments will be needed.

Why should we be reassured in quantity terms - rather than relative?

Disclaimer: I have a lot of confidence in the quality of care serious coronavirus patients will receive - up to a point of serious cases reaching three or four digits.

I don’t see myself as reassuring you that we can handle Coronavirus. I am simply injecting reality into this discussion.

I’m saying that we will have fewer deaths per 100 infected people than America in my estimation. That’s very different than cheerleading the HSE.

Yes you are correct. Once ventilators run out there will be a large spike in deaths. More people will die than many believe.

What you and others are doing is extrapolating our from things I say and then saying I’m implying etc other things. I am simply saying what I’m saying. I’m not cheerleading or doing PR. I’m trying to be reasonable and factual.

So let’s be clear. It will spread, people will die and when the ventilators run out lots of people will die very rapidly. Probably more than most imagine. I trust this makes my lack of cheerleading clear.

odyssey06

Computer Science Student wrote: »

When will they start banning major events?

Government to issue guidelines on mass gatherings tomorrow...
Harris says guidelines on mass gatherings expected to be issued tomorrow amid Covid-19 concerns
https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-death-toll-over-3000-5029063-Mar2020/

thebaz

frillyleaf wrote: »

Why is it spreading so quick in Italy? Does anyone any theory for this ?

It has been talked about that Italy has close ties to China , regarding textile indusrty - Perhaps it arrived early and spread quickly - I am not a Doctor , but it has been said here that the virus will probably spread everywhere , like is happening in Italy and we will have to deal with a 1% mortality - and stop tracking individual cases , it will just become a pandemic - just a theory and I'm no medic

Naggdefy

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

It’s OBD’s taboo thought of the day: I’m closing in on five years with cancer, I’m thoroughly fed up of treatment and kind of my life in general. A year ago, I was pancytopenic due to bone marrow mets (under control for now) and therefore very immunocompromised. I kinda wish I still was and then I might actually try and seek out the virus and just get it over with. Yes folks, the pitch black thought process of a dying person.

Though oddly, I’ve not had a cold since I was diagnosed and I’ve never had the flu ever.

Very sorry to read this. I don't really know what to say.. Hope you're not in pain.

Professor Moriarty

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

It’s OBD’s taboo thought of the day: I’m closing in on five years with cancer, I’m thoroughly fed up of treatment and kind of my life in general. A year ago, I was pancytopenic due to bone marrow mets (under control for now) and therefore very immunocompromised. I kinda wish I still was and then I might actually try and seek out the virus and just get it over with. Yes folks, the pitch black thought process of a dying person.

Hang on as long as you can bear it.

Ipso

olestoepoke wrote: »

Not sure if its students spreading fake news but just got sent a couple of pics of an ambulance taking a student out of dcu. Ambulance men wearing face masks. Not sure what was wrong with the student.

Can you tell from the picture it was DCU?

Frank Bullitt

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't help but question the people who medically head the HSE. Who preside over the yearly flu/hospital/vomiting bugs in our first world hospitals. Who are ultimately responsible for babies being treated on floors. Who have 1 of the largest health budgets in the world per capita but incorrectly diagnose young women. I don't trust the competence of the HSE with this virus.

I'll trust a doctor before a username on boards.ie

bennyl10

BanditLuke wrote: »

I do respect them. Aren't I allowed argue my side of the issue?

Your post wasn’t an argument, it was a sneaky, pathetic dig at Front line hospital staff, who without we’d be in a lot worse state in a lot of ways. All for your conspiracy theory BS

Pathetic is putting it nicely.

Beasty

olestoepoke wrote: »

Not sure if its students spreading fake news but just got sent a couple of pics of an ambulance taking a student out of dcu. Ambulance men wearing face masks. Not sure what was wrong with the student.

Who knows? Certainly not you nor I - please only post stuff like this once you have a reliable and verifiable source

Cilldara_2000

Hmmm. First result when on a google search "Ireland health service ranking". https://www.joe.ie/fitness-health/ireland-placed-pretty-high-new-global-healthcare-system-ranking-588830

Here was me expecting to see nothing but bad news.

billybonkers

Google Dublin staff to work from home due to potential case in the office